Yo stays....who goes?

[bjkrautk]

There have been a number of threads which start to touch on the question, but none which seem to ask it so bluntly? (Mods, feel free to correct me, and lock this thread in the process.)

Gallardo is scheduled to come off the DL on Sunday; whose spot does he take in the rotation, and who's spot on the 25-man roster? I realize that the second question is confused a bit by the Stetter and Gwynn, but the likely result is that 1-2 of the pitchers currently on the active roster won't be there a week from now.

The likely candidates:
Dave Bush, 16.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 10 BB: 13 K
Carlos Villanueva, 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 7 BB: 10 K
Manny Parra, 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 8 BB: 14 K

Seth McClung, 6.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 4 BB: 4 K
Derrick Turnbow, 3.2 IP, 9.82 ERA, 2.73 WHIP, 5 BB: 1 K

Parra has the best numbers, but his low innings total through three starts give cause for concern; he hasn't made it through six innings yet this year. Villanueva, IMO, has the least upside of the three, and may ultimately be a bullpen guy. Bush has looked imminently replaceable in his first three starts, but he has a track record of being consistently mediocre, and actually has the only "Quality Start" out of the three.

Looking at the numbers, I'd have to option Parra down to AAA. While I'd like to keep a lefty in the rotation, I'm more concerned with the cumulative effect of short starts on the bullpen, and Manny is the worst offender in that respect. It also helps that he won't have to clear waivers to be sent down, and that the club should be looking to limit his innings (which is much easier to do in AAA).
As for the other transaction, I'll make it simple: Stetter goes back down after the Reds series, and Gwynn takes his spot on the roster.

[dadofandrew]

Manny certainly looks like he'll go down, though I'm not sure why they wouldn't have added Stetter by sending him down, unless something else is up.

[Glennron]

To be fair, Bush has had some poor defense behind him in a couple of starts. By no stretch of the imagination am I saying he is pitching "well", but I don't think he's done as poorly as some may think. As you said, he's been consistently mediocre over his career, which to me is fine when you're 4th/5th starter. As long as he doesn't continue to walk 4 or 5 guys a game he should be fine as a part of the rotation.

 

I'll agree that Parra should probably be sent down, though mostly based on the fact it's easier to limit his innings. Obviously he, like the others, haven't been pitching well, but it's kind of silly to make a numbers decision based off 3 starts this year.

[joepepsi]

This is a tough call. After this week they've all sort of performed equally mediocre. In a perverse way this seems to help Bush stay in the rotation.

[jhart05]

I don't know, I'd say if you're looking at last weeks performances, Bush clearly had the better outing of the three.

 

Villy second, then Parra third.

[rluzinski]

I don't think you weight the results of their respective starts this year very much. Lots of other things to consider.

[Ennder]

I'd trade Turbow for a bag of balls.

[Weirdos19]

That's more than Philly got for Helms.

[Oldcity]

I'd probably waive McClung, although I'd be fine with either Parra or Villanueva being sent down for awhile. Both should probably have innings monitored so they don't get worn out by the end of the season.

[rluzinski]

That's more than Philly got for Helms.

 

The Phillies got $750k back for trading Helms, so that far from nothing.

[pete]

Bush had excellent defense behind him last start. They bailed him out a couple of times. He was below mediocre, which is much better than he was the first two times.

 

That being said, he probably stays due to his relationship with Yost and perhaps others in the organization. He probably has to lose 7, 8, 9 games in a row or 12 of 14 or something like that before he suffers any consequences.

[Oldcity]

Villanueva hasn't had one start as good as Bush's last one. Either way, the performance so far this season shouldn't really be taken much into consideration.

 

Were you basing the comment about the defense behind Bush based on statistics, or just your observation? Just asking. I don't recall any Brewers pitcher having excellent defense behind him last season.

[Glennron]

Bush had excellent defense behind him last start. They bailed him out a couple of times. He was below mediocre, which is much better than he was the first two times.

6.0 IP

6 hits

3 runs

3 earned runs

2 BB

5 K's

What about that pitching line is "below mediocre"? It's obviously not very good, but calling it below mediocre is a stretch IMO. Maybe if he was a top line starter then yeah, but come on the guys pretty much set as a back of the rotation guy. And I'm also curious as to what defense was excellent his last game. I seem a Cardinals player running home and Joe Dillon throwing it about 70 % of the way home, so there was no chance to throw him out. I'm not saying he should have been out, but a good throw and that's possibly one less run for him

[rluzinski]

Here's what the average start looked like last year in the NL:

 

IP: 5 2/3

6.1 hits

3.1 earned runs per 6 IP

2 BB

4 Ks

 

I'm not going to offer an opinion with regard to how Bush's performance was overall, but the results was pretty much the definition of mediocre. I'd take that from my #3-#5 anyday.

 

Bush has been in the rotation because he's had some success in the majors; not because of any supposed bias coaches or management might have towards him. If he pitches like he did during his last start, he'll be in the league for a long time. If he pitches like he did during his first two starts, he'll be out of the league very quickly. Melvin isn't just making personnel decisions based on the results of three starts in 2008, anyway. That's probably a small consideration, compared to everything else. He's also considering past performance, player health, arby time, to name a few. If we are trying to speculate on any future personnel moves, we need to do the same. He's not pulling up the 2008 Milwaukee stats and picking the best numbers.

[joepepsi]

If he pitches like he did during his last start, he'll be in the league for a long time.

He's very nearly Jeff Suppan. Someday Dave Bush could be making a lot of money starting baseball games.

 

fwiw, I prefer calling his last start "average" as opposed to mediocre. I suppose technically they mean roughly the same thing, but I view mediocre as something less than average. Like getting a C- or D+ on a test as opposed to a straight C.

[1992casey]

I agree that there are better words than mediocre to equate to "average." I looked that word up recently and both definitions were correct. However, the definition synonymous to "lousy" was placed ahead of the definition synonymous to "average."

[JohnBriggs12]

The rotation pecking order beyond Sheets and Suppan to begin the season was Bush, Villanueva, Parra, in that order. The results of all 3 have been inconclusive. None has stepped out and made a strong case that he belongs above the other two. Therefore, assuming it's a starter that goes, my money is on Parra being optioned. That makes sense because Parra has the least major league experience of the three, and less AAA experience too. The Brewer website lists Villanueva as the starter on Monday, and "to be determined" Sunday and Tuesday. I figure they'll go with Yo Sunday, and just move back Bush to Tuesday.

 

Before yesterday, I would have thought McClung was going to go. But 3 shutout innings saved him for now in my mind (and put Turnbow in real jeopardy). Stetter may or may not be a temporary callup, but I think they'd be a lot more comfortable sending down Parra if they had 2 lefties in the pen. That way Yost can have a quicker hook in games with teams having a stacked lineup of lefthanded hitters.

 

Remember though it's still April. If either Parra or Villanueva goes down to Nashville, it's quite likely, even probable that whoever it is will be back at some point, sooner rather than later.

[joepepsi]

We are fortunate our team has a GM who's not scared to release players, even if they are guaranteed good money. If Turnbow keeps up his less than mediocre performance, he won't make it to June 1 as a Brewer. I expect him to be released after a couple more bad outings.

[bork]

Yo stays....who goes?

Sheets?

[brettac1]

Yeah, seems like the old adage of "it'll work itself out" manifested itself tonight. Of course, no one wanted to see it work out that way.

[Fatter than Joey]

Has anyone heard when Yo is supposed to make his first start? Sunday?

[Brian the Automator]

If Sheeter doesn't hit the DL, I'd have to think Manny would get the demotion. It would probably be the easiest way to control his innings, which would be the silver lining there.

 

And yeah, Yo's supposed to start on Sunday.

[kramnoj]

Has anyone heard when Yo is supposed to make his first start? Sunday?

 

That's what Haudricourt wrote yesterday. Not sure what that means for everybody else yet.

[pete]

Dave Bush is on the team because of the bias of Yost. The idea of taking mediocre from the #3 through #5 is a recipe for finishing in the middle of the division or lower. I doubt he'll be in the league a long time.

 

People point out that there was one play that wasn't perfect, but never mention when the defense bails him out.

[areacodes]

Dave Bush is on the team because of the bias of Yost.

You got some proof of that? If this organization is being run based on the "bias of Yost" then I think we should all jump ship right now. Don't you think that Melvin has some say in the roster as well since he is the GM?