NL Central Thread - Musings and notes on the division race

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah if Theriot, Cedeno, Derosa, Johnson, and even Fuku continue to hit well above .300, then sure...the Cubs will run away with the division.

 

Their closer just blew another save last night and he isn't far behind Gagne in totals.

 

Let's say the Cubs do continue to dominate...all we can do is keep winning our games and I think we can run away with the wild card easily, too. I'd love to hang a division banner up but I'll take the playoff appearance.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's going to come down to who has the best and deepest bullpen, just like it did last season. If Sheets avoids the DL, I think the Brewers' starting rotation can pitch further into games on average than the Cubs' rotation, which should help their pen. If the Cubs continue to run out the same 3 relievers in every reasonably close game (Howry, Marmol, and Wood), they're going to burn out. I also don't see how Dempster will continue to excel as a starter once the innings start piling up, since it's been years since he was used to start instead of close games.

 

Much of the Brewers hot start in 07 was directly linked to how well their late inning guys pitched, but they were also pitching almost every game during that stretch that got them to 24-10. by June, Villy needed rest, Turnbow had lost his command, and Cordero started to have some blown saves. The Cubs have used a similar formula to how the Brewers started last year - combine a relatively easy, home-heavy early schedule with lots of appearances by their bullpen horses to finish every close game out. Looong way to go, as we found out last year - aside from the Cubs and D'backs, nobody else has a better record in the NL than the Brewers...it's not like there's a huge hole being dug that the Brewers will need to get themselves out of to creep into contention.

[RickieWeeksJr]

I think he's right. Chicago is built too tough. I see them winning around 95 games. The Brewers will have to win a WC spot, IMO.

[Ennder]

The thing is the Cubs have had an easier schedule and are playing extremely hot. Almost every single hitter is putting up career year type stats so far. The Brewers are actually struggling a little so far in my opinion. So we have a team that is very hot and a team that is about where they should be or a little bit lower and they have almost the same record.

 

The Cubs will not last like this. The lineup will get cold at some point, Dempster will be Dempster at some point, Zambrano has never had 3 dominant months in a row in his entire career so he most likely will fall apart at some point. It isn't time to say the Cubs are going to take the division, every team looks great during a hit streak. It is how the team plays when they struggle that matters and we haven't really seen the Cubs struggle yet but it will happen at some point. It is a long season.

[RickieWeeksJr]

To me it comes down to the fact that the Cubs have a lineup full of guys who have achieved. They are proven and way more experienced. The Brewers have some guys you know will be solid, and then a whole lot of guys who either haven't lived up the hype or aren't that good.

 

Who in our lineup do you trust to be truly good for the duration of the year? For me, it's basically Hart, Fielder and Braun. After that, it's not very comfortable. At this point I think I'd prefer DeRosa to Weeks. Hardy and Theriot are almost the same guy. But when you've got Fukudome, Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Soto, that's a tough lineup. And Johnson looks like he did in 2006. They are stronger all around. Neither pitching staff is anything fantastic, but with Sheets surely headed for the DL and nothing but youth (outside of Suppan) filling the rotation, I just don't see this team finishing ahead of the Cubs.

 

It's hard to see the WC coming from the Central but I guess it could happen.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Let's face it, the Cubs won the divsion last year and probably have a better team than last year since they added Fukodome. They are hot right now and have had a great start. The Brewers may have more unknows, especially in the bullpen, but we're only 2 games back and they really haven't started clicking yet. I think what people miss about our bullpen is last year's version had a better headline act in Cordero, but had questionable depth. It would be nice to have Cordero, but it's not just Gagne' out there. Guys like Riske and Torres have really solidified those 6-8 innings and have helped in the extra innings games. As this season wears on, I'm less worried about Yost wearing out the pen like last year. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

 

The only major difference between our pen and theirs is Marmol. He was the difference maker in the division last year.

[Ennder]

Who in our lineup do you trust to be truly good for the duration of the year? For me, it's basically Hart, Fielder and Braun. After that, it's not very comfortable. At this point I think I'd prefer DeRosa to Weeks. Hardy and Theriot are almost the same guy. But when you've got Fukudome, Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Soto, that's a tough lineup

 

I don't really get how Fukudome and Soto fall into your sure thing type guys. I'd much rather have Weeks than DeRosa and Hardy than Theriot as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

"The Cubs have a lineup full of guys who have achieved...."

 

That is a ridiculous statement.

 

Achieved what? Hardy's been an All Star at age 24 when Theriot had never seen the majors. What has Mark DeRosa achieved? Or Soto? Or Fukudome for that matter? Reed Johnson? Felix Pie?

 

Brewers haven't achieved? Braun was rookie of the year and set a rookie record for slugging percentage. Fielder was the youngest to ever hit 50 HR in a season. Cameron's a 3 time gold glover in a key defensive position. Hall's hit 35 HR. Kendall's a lifetime .297 hitter. Hart nearly had a 25/25 season in his first year as an everyday player. Counsell and Kapler have 3 rings between them coming off the bench.

 

You can argue Weeks hasn't reached his potential but his OBP his 26 points higher than Soriano, and he's got more tools than DeRosa has.

 

The Cubs have been feasting on bad teams. Their numbers are inflated.

[RickieWeeksJr]

The guys you mentioned are not the cornerstones of the Cubs offense. In Lee, Ramirez and Soriano they have three sure-fire studs. Guys that have been productive for YEARS. DeRosa has been a lot more productive than Rickie Weeks. Over 500 at-bats in 2006 and 07, hit .296 and .293 with an OBP of .357 and .371. He's been pretty solid defensively. He's a good player. I'd rather have someone putting up those numbers than be dealing with Weeks' seemingly constant struggles and gross inconsistency.

 

Hardy all-star appearance was due to very fluky HR hitting that he probably won't ever duplicate. Hardy is good defensively but the guy is likely a career .260-.270 hitter, he's nothing much better than Theriot.

 

Johnson is a career .280 hitter with a .340 OBP. He's not exactly a slouch, and did hit over .300 in 06.

 

You can say what you like about Fukudome, but it looks like they got a pretty great player in him. There's a reason he got that monster contract, the dude is a baller.

 

Soto is probably the best young catcher in baseball. I'd like to think Kendall is going to hit .330 all year, but I doubt it.

 

All around their lineup is, IMO, stronger than ours. More polished, experienced and better.

[TooLiveBrew]

Eric Ludwick

Just going to nitpick... It's Ryan, not Eric. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

In Lee, Ramirez and Soriano they have three sure-fire studs. Guys that have been productive for YEARS.

Yes... however, the past has little or nothing to do with this season. To use a season or two ago to 'prove' something for this current season is to misapply stats. The Brewers are the young & improving team, and should be expected to perform near or above their past production. The Cubs are the aging team, and should be expected to perform near or below their past production.

 

Taking only offense into account, give me Fielder, Braun, & Hart any day over the Cubs trio you listed. Guys that are going to be productive for YEARS.

[Ennder]

The guys you mentioned are not the cornerstones of the Cubs offense. In Lee, Ramirez and Soriano they have three sure-fire studs. Guys that have been productive for YEARS. DeRosa has been a lot more productive than Rickie Weeks. Over 500 at-bats in 2006 and 07, hit .296 and .293 with an OBP of .357 and .371. He's been pretty solid defensively. He's a good player. I'd rather have someone putting up those numbers than be dealing with Weeks' seemingly constant struggles and gross inconsistency.

 

Hardy all-star appearance was due to very fluky HR hitting that he probably won't ever duplicate. Hardy is good defensively but the guy is likely a career .260-.270 hitter, he's nothing much better than Theriot.

 

Johnson is a career .280 hitter with a .340 OBP. He's not exactly a slouch, and did hit over .300 in 06.

 

You can say what you like about Fukudome, but it looks like they got a pretty great player in him. There's a reason he got that monster contract, the dude is a baller.

 

Soto is probably the best young catcher in baseball. I'd like to think Kendall is going to hit .330 all year, but I doubt it.

 

All around their lineup is, IMO, stronger than ours. More polished, experienced and better.

 

Ok well if you look at the best years of the Cubs players and assume all their young guys will improve and then assume all the Brewer players will get worse and use some messed up valuation system that thinks that DeRosa was better than Weeks the last 2 years (which he wasn't btw), then yeah I agree with you.

 

It won't surprise me one bit if Braun > Aramis, Fielder > Lee, Hart > Soriano. The backbone of our lineup is every bit as good as the Cubs. The two teams are extremely evenly matched in overall talent. Soto and Fukudome will of course be pretty big keys, neither have played a full season in the majors so they will have downs with these ups they have had. There is no reason to expect the Cubs to score significantly more than we do this year though. remember Fukudome is replacing a tandem in RF that had a .375 OBP last year, it isn't like he was replacing a bad part of their lineup. I think Cameron replacing menchkins will be just as big an offensive upgrade.

[RickieWeeksJr]

I'd like anyone to explain to me how Weeks has been better than DeRosa the last two years.

 

There is no way a sane person can believe that.

[TooLiveBrew]

Stop slinging stuff like that around when you're the one that needs to re-evaluate. Rickie Weeks is a well above-avg. 2Bman. The only reason you're confused is that you're using BA as the only evaluation tool, let alone the fact that you're weighing it heavily -- that's the crazy part.

 

In fact, given your screenname, I wonder if we have some trollage going on here.

[RickieWeeksJr]

How do you have any clue what I'm using as an evaluation tool? DeRosa has out-performed Weeks both of the past two seasons. No one other than a Brewers fan would argue that. Defense and offense, DeRosa has been better. Could you explain how he's been better?

[Ennder]

I'd like anyone to explain to me how Weeks has been better than DeRosa the last two years.

 

There is no way a sane person can believe that.

 

They are about the same over the last two years. DeRosa gets an edge with defense, Weeks gets an edge with the SB. Looking at EqA which is just an offensive stat Weeks has been .276 and .292 the past two years. DeRosa has been .280 and .276. Weeks obviously has more upside than DeRosa as well as most of those stats were put up while playing through an injury that historically is very hard on a hitter. I don't think Weeks has been better than DeRosa, the two have been about the same, there isn't a clear advantage either way. However given ages and career paths I'd expect DeRosa to regress this year and Weeks to improve so there is no way I'd rather have DeRosa this year.

 

But you make it sound like DeRosa is a good player and Weeks should be in the minors which isn't the case at all.

 

The first thing you want to do is throw AVG out as an evaluation method, AVG is a stat that helps you understand how a player gets value but it isn't very useful for telling you how valuable someone actually is. DeRosa the last two years has had the following line OBP/SLG/OPS - .357/.456/.813 and .371/.420/.791. Weeks has had the following line .363/.404/.767 and .374/.433/.807.

 

RC/G - DeRosa with 5.7 and 5.5, Weeks with 5.6 and 6.5.

 

The real thing that seperates them is defense vs speed. How much does Weeks speed help compared to the defense mismatch. DeRosa is an average 2B, Weeks a below average one defensively. DeRosa is slower than your normal 2B, Weeks is one of the best baserunners in the game.

[RickieWeeksJr]

I would rather have DeRosa if I were tying to win a division right now. For the present time, I feel they are in a better position with him than the Brewers are with Weeks. It seems like all Weeks discussions eventually turn to "upside." When are we going to see some return? It's great that he can get on base, he's probably saving his career by doing so. And he has wheels. But his BA and K tendency are unacceptable for a player who's supposedly that talented. His range defensively is abysmal.

 

Weeks is also hitting .220 w/ RISP over the past three years while DeRosa is .288 in the same category. He's also struck out 74 fewers times than Weeks in 40 fewer at-bats. He is simply more productive.

[Ennder]

I disagree, Weeks was better than DeRosa last year and will likely be better again this year.

[Katuluu]

I'm trying to understand why anyone would name themselves after a player they clearly dislike.

[RickieWeeksJr]

Who said anything about disliking him? Why is that every time a player on this team is criticized, the critic has to either have a vendetta against him or be a Cubs fan?

[jjfanec]

I have other things to nitpick like Hardy being equal to Theriot, but calling Soto the best young catcher in baseball seems like quite the stretch. What defines young? He is older than Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Russel martin just to name a few. And although Soto's numbers might be better than those guys right now I am pretty sure he isnt near their level.

Now considering this is his first full season I dont know if you can make this statement. But it is interesting you say that Kendell wont keep his numbers up but yet you believe that Soto will. I think Soto has some talent but lets remember, small sample, just the start of the year.

[Darnell Junior]

Weeks has put up almost identical numbers offensively to Derosa the last two years, while playin injured more than half of each season. He's been one of the most efficient baserunners in the league as well. I'll take a healthy Weeks over Derosa any day of the week.

[Katuluu]

Why is that every time a player on this team is criticized, the critic has to either have a vendetta against him or be a Cubs fan?

I inferred neither. Yet you continue to aggressively attack anyone who contradicts your opinions. How interesting.

 

[RickieWeeksJr]

He is the best catching "prospect" in baseball. I believe Tom Haudricourt ranked him the same way. Kendall hasn't been any worse than him, but how long do you expect that to last? I don't know what your point is. If you think there's a GM in the league that would keep Kendall instead of Soto, I don't know what to say.

 

With Hardy I've never been too big a fan. I appreciate what he brings to the table but seems like a pretty bland hitter. I don't think he or Theriot are anything spectacular. They are both dependable defenders and average offensive players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Soto is certainly not the best catching prospect in baseball. Haudricourt is not a very good evaluator, imo (just mo).

 

Hardy is light-years better than Theriot.

[RickieWeeksJr]

Why is that every time a player on this team is criticized, the critic has to either have a vendetta against him or be a Cubs fan?

I inferred neither. Yet you continue to aggressively attack anyone who contradicts your opinions. How interesting.

 

You didn't? I could've sworn you said that I "clearly dislike" Weeks. I'd say that's an inference. An incorrect one at that. And who have I "aggressively attacked?" I don't think I've done anything of the sort. I guess offering an argument that DeRosa has out-played Weeks is an "aggressive attack." How interesting.