Are we going to struggle all year against righty pitching?

[BrewCrewForever]

All signs point to yes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Granted the 2008 start is extremely small samples and Floyd with miss time with meniscus injury but Gabe Gross doesn't look all that fearsome as a LH bat specializing in playing versus the RH's.

 

I guess that depends if you think we should ignore Gross's production in 2006, another season in which Floyd missed much time due to injury.

 

.274/.382/.476/.858

[MJLiverock]

Granted the 2008 start is extremely small samples and Floyd with miss time with meniscus injury but Gabe Gross doesn't look all that fearsome as a LH bat specializing in playing versus the RH's.

 

I guess that depends if you think we should ignore Gross's production in 2006, another season in which Floyd missed much time due to injury.

 

.274/.382/.476/.858

 

Like I said Floyd may not have been the answer but to say that Gross has been better than Floyd is wrong in my opinion.

 

And pointing to the 2006 production of Gross just reinforces my belief that Gross supporters selectively choose which of his stats to look at since I can easily counter his 2006 production with bad 2004 and 2005 production.

 

I used last year as a more recent showing of performance and career to get the more robust picture but unless you just want to take the good months of Gross while ignoring his many bad months you will never get me to believe Gabe Gross is anything special or better than replacement level since he can't hit lefties and doesn't really dominate righties while playing below average defense.

 

I know I will never convince some that Gross isn't some OBP god but I have tried. For all the hatred of Mench on this board he was better at facing LHer's than Gross has ever been at facing RH's. Even during Mench's time in Milwaukee he put up better OBP than Gross in his platoon role yet Mench is hated by many of the very same posters who cling to Gabe Gross.

 

I just don't get the Gross support by so many on this board when he really hasn't produced much except in small samples. I've read the posts in the offseason where supporters wanted Gross to play everyday (some in CF no less) because of how hot he finished the year after being called up from the minors. I too remembered him being hot but when I look up the stats I see he was certainly hot for August when he was .350/.366/.725, but I too forgot how he went right back to the bottom in September at .204/.317/.315 with more AB's. The more I look at his numbers the less impressed I become. I am starting to think he is Geoff Jenkins without the good defense and just as streaky versus RH but worse versus LHer. Maybe I'll refere to Gross as "Geoff Jenkins Lite". :D

[Robideaux]

You mean this Cliff Floyd?

 

April 9, 2008 Placed on 15-day DL (Torn meniscus, right knee)

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5177/news

[lukevan]

If Gross is Jenkins Lite, wouldn't that mean that he's at least close to being a starting candidate, and at the very least a viable MLB player? It's not like Gross supporters want him starting over Braun or something... we just don't understand why some seem to want Gross DFA'd.

[monty57]

You mean this Cliff Floyd?

 

April 9, 2008 Placed on 15-day DL (Torn meniscus, right knee)

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5177/news

So... maybe he will carry a 1.212 OPS all season.

[TooLiveBrew]

And pointing to the 2006 production of Gross just reinforces my belief that Gross supporters selectively choose which of his stats to look at since I can easily counter his 2006 production with bad 2004 and 2005 production.

Yea, that's what I did. I suggested you be fair & not crop your 'search' right before Gross's good season. That's not even close to being 'selective.'

[Gopher74]

They lost two lefties after last season and replaced them with rights.

So you would rather have Jenkins and Estrada than Cameron and Kendall? Seriously?

Did I say that?? Don't be stupid! I believe the Brewers need more front line players that swing from the left side to even things out a little. And by front line I don't mean Gross or Counsell.

Oh, I get it. You make an argument that we're going to continue to be bad vs right handers because we lost the two left handers we did have. Now you ignore the fact that we actually replaced them with two right handers we added actually hit BETTER vs righties than who we traded, and I'm "being stupid" when I try and point this out?

 

And yes, in a perfect world, Braun, Hart and Hardy would all hit left handed, and Weeks, Hall, Kendall and Cameron would be right handers so we could be perfectly balanced, but we're not. It'd also be nice to get another ace like the D-backs, M's, or Tribe have, but we don't have that either. The question is are we going to be bad all year vs right handers. I believe we've upgraded from last year in that regard regardless what side of the plate the two additions hit from.

[Gopher74]

If Gross is Jenkins Lite, wouldn't that mean that he's at least close to being a starting candidate, and at the very least a viable MLB player? It's not like Gross supporters want him starting over Braun or something... we just don't understand why some seem to want Gross DFA'd.

Well, it's getting harder and harder to defend the guy. At least in the role the Brewers want to use him in. Yes, he was great in 06 vs right handers, but he's been just awful since except for a number of AB's that everyone on here would rush to question.

 

I've been defending him on the ESPN boards as I think he's a better option off the bench...but I'm starting to seriously doubt that. You want a guy who can consistently give you solid AB's off the bench as your 4th OF'er, and he hasn't done that in a long time...since 06, and even then he was hideous for almost 2 months in May and June(got hot again the end of June).

 

Gwynn on the other hand has looked very good in his AB's this year, and is always improving and offers you good defense and base running. It's not longer ridiculous to suggest that Gwynn may be the better bench option at this point.

[adambr2]

I'm not sure where we're getting that Cameron and Kendall are definite upgrades even against RHP over Jenkins and Estrada.

 

Jenkins as we know is very good against RHP. Using 3 year splits, which is a pretty fair recent sample size, Jenkins has a .292 BA vs. RHP and a .869 OPS. Cameron has a .251 BA and a .773 OPS.

 

Estrada has a .282 BA and a .728 OPS vs. RHP.

 

Kendall has a .270 BA and a .657 OPS vs. RHP.

 

I guess you could call Estrada vs. Kendall a push in that department, if you really want to be generous. Historically, Kendall is pretty close to the same in his splits RHP vs. LHP. Obviously we're happy with Kendall and Cameron, but I don't see anything that really indicates that we can say who we obtained should do better vs. RHP than who we had, without sounding a little biased. Obviously, I'm not saying I'd prefer to have them back instead, and this doesn't take defense or other reasons into account why we obtained them, but I'm just saying, I don't really see how Kendall and Cameron vs. RHP is better than Jenkins and Estrada.

[Gopher74]

I'm not sure where we're getting that Cameron and Kendall are definite upgrades even against RHP over Jenkins and Estrada.

Jenkins as we know is very good against RHP. Using 3 year splits,

 

Because we're not using 3 year splits, we're comparing this years team to last years team. Using Jenks numbers from 05 and 06 doesn't do anything to tell us how this years team may look as compared to last years team.

Also, Cameron's numbers have been put together in Petco, the biggest pitchers park in the game, and he had an awful year last year skewing his 3 year splits.

 

Estrada has a .282 BA and a .728 OPS vs. RHP.

Kendall has a .270 BA and a .657 OPS vs. RHP.

 

Again, 3 year splits...which don't have much bearing on this conversation with regard to Estrada. Last year Estrada hit .263 with a .285 OBP last year vs right handers.

Kendall in by far the worst year of his career last year was .259/.315. So in what was by far Kendall's worst year ever, he still had a OBP 30 points higher than Estrada.

In 06 Kendall was .285/.350.

I don't see anything that really indicates that we can say who we obtained should do better vs. RHP than who we had, without sounding a little biased.

And again, we're not comparing Johnny Estrada's career numbers vs right handers to Jason Kendall's or Geoff Jenkins, we're comparing what each did last season which is the only relevant season to this discussion to what Kendal and Cameron can be expected to do this year vs right handers.

 

There's nothing bias about it.

How is saying that Jason Kendall should put up a better line than .263/.285 this year biased?

Or that Mike Cameron hitting in front of Prince in Miller Park should put up a better line than .262/.326 this year.

[DrWood]

Drew Olson on the radio yesterday thought that Russell Branyan might be called up if he continues to do well and if the Brewers continue to struggle against righties. I don't think that's inside information on his part, just a guess. I'm not sure what to make of that. I can't see him starting over Hart or Braun against righthanders on a regular basis, and I would be surprised if Hall got relegated to a platoon player at 3B. I guess he could start a couple times a month when the corner OF or Hall gets a day or two off each month.

 

he could replace gross when cameron joins the team.

[adambr2]

And again, we're not comparing Johnny Estrada's career numbers vs right handers to Jason Kendall's or Geoff Jenkins, we're comparing what each did last season which is the only relevant season to this discussion to what Kendal and Cameron can be expected to do this year vs right handers.

There's nothing bias about it.
How is saying that Jason Kendall should put up a better line than .263/.285 this year biased?
Or that Mike Cameron hitting in front of Prince in Miller Park should put up a better line than .262/.326 this year.

First of all, in regards to Estrada, I never used his career statistics. The most I used were his 3 year splits, which I think is a pretty fair analysis.

I don't think that line for Kendall (.263, .285) is biased. I think only using the '07 numbers might be a little biased. For instance, I certainly don't think it's fair to assume that Kendall will hit 61 points higher vs. RHP than LHP just because he did in '07.

Cameron hit .222 and .298 off RHP based off his last year stats, while Jenkins even in a bad year was .262 and .326. So it works both ways. Could Cameron do that against RHP? Sure, maybe. I wouldn't consider it a lock at age 35, though, that's for sure.

I'm really glad we got Kendall and Cameron. I think Kendall actually knows what he is doing behind the plate and Cameron could potentially save us several games in the outfield. I just think that those who expect them to be a noticeable offensive upgrade from Estrada and Jenkins over the course of the season are going to be disappointed.

[Gopher74]

First of all, in regards to Estrada, I never used his career statistics. The most I used were his 3 year splits, which I think is a pretty fair analysis.

 

How? The whole point is we're comparing what the team did LAST YEAR to what they should do this year. The other two years in his splits don't have anything to do with this thread whatsoever.

 

I don't think that line for Kendall (.263, .285) is biased. I think only using the '07 numbers might be a little biased. For instance, I certainly don't think it's fair to assume that Kendall will hit 61 points higher vs. RHP than LHP just because he did in '07.

Explain how? How can it possibly be biased? What does his numbers for the D-backs and Braves have to do with the price of tea in China? It's totally irrelevant.

I think it's a fair assumption to say that a guy who's a career .297/.374 guy vs right handers is going to produce better than .265/.285 that we got out of Estrada last year.

And when did I say anything about expecting Kendall to hit 61 points higher vs RHP than LHP? I don't care what his splits are. The fact of the matter is he had the worst year of his career, and he was STILL significantly better vs right handers than Estrada was. No, I don't expect him to have that big of a split this year. I expect it to be much less pronounced as I expect him to hit better overall. You're putting arguments into my mouth here.

Cameron hit .222 and .298 off RHP based off his last year stats, while Jenkins even in a bad year was .262 and .326. So it works both ways. Could Cameron do that against RHP? Sure, maybe. I wouldn't consider it a lock at age 35, though, that's for sure.

 

No, it does NOT work both ways. 2007 is over. We know what Jenks did. The argument is not whether Jenks had a bad year and he could do better. That number's a given. And no it's not a lock. I suppose that Cameron could match the worst year of his career vs right handers. You've got me there, it's certainly possible, but what are we debating here? What's possible, or what's probable? Cameron's hit much better vs right handers than that his entire career, and he's going from the worst hitters park to a good one. To a average at beast lineup to a good one hitting in front of Prince. In 06 he posted a .273/.353 line vs right handers.

 

I just think that those who expect them to be a noticeable offensive upgrade from Estrada and Jenkins over the course of the season are going to be disappointed.

And again, we're expecting a noticeable upgrade from what Estrada and Jenkins did in 2007.

 

 

I simply don't understand why those two players three year splits would have anything to do with anything.

 

If this debate was whether we'd be better off with Geoff Jenkins and Johnny Estrada THIS YEAR over those two, that might be a debate. Arguing that Kendall and Cameron should exceed what those two did last year is probably.

[adambr2]

How? The whole point is we're comparing what the team did LAST YEAR to what they should do this year. The other two years in his splits don't have anything to do with this thread whatsoever.

 

Because I don't think that what they did last year is a very good base indicator of what they will do this year. I don't expect Ted Lilly to have a career year again just because he did last year. Nor do I expect Kendall to be as bad as he was overall last year -- I would guess he'll be more of a cross of what he did in 2005, '06, and '07.

Explain how? How can it possibly be biased? What does his numbers for the D-backs and Braves have to do with the price of tea in China? It's totally irrelevant.

I think it's a fair assumption to say that a guy who's a career .297/.374 guy vs right handers is going to produce better than .265/.285 that we got out of Estrada last year.

 

Look again, I said it was NOT biased to expect that out of Kendall.

 

And again, we're expecting a noticeable upgrade from what Estrada and Jenkins did in 2007.

 

Well, I'd be thrilled with that. I think that'd be a big bonus if we see a noticeable offensive upgrade. I'd be more than happy if they could give us similar offensive production OPS-wise, but provide the defense and intagibles over the course of the season to win us those couple extra games.

[Ennder]

Gopher is right here, we are trying to compare what the team will do this year to what it did last year. Everything before last year has absolutely no value in the discussion other than trying to predict what the current players will do this year. The only stats that matter are what Jenkins/Estrada did last year.

[adambr2]

Okay, I get what you guys are saying, and what you were trying to say, 74. My bad. I used 3 year splits as an indicator of predictability for this year, but for Jenkins and Estrada, we're not really talking about that, since we're just comparing last year's numbers to what we can expect this year. I still think it's a fair gauge to predict for Cameron and Kendall, but for Estrada and Jenkins, it's irrelevant since all we care about are their raw numbers for last year, not what they did before or what they might do in '08.

[Gopher74]

Okay, I get what you guys are saying, and what you were trying to say, 74. My bad. I used 3 year splits as an indicator of predictability for this year, but for Jenkins and Estrada, we're not really talking about that, since we're just comparing last year's numbers to what we can expect this year. I still think it's a fair gauge to predict for Cameron and Kendall, but for Estrada and Jenkins, it's irrelevant since all we care about are their raw numbers for last year, not what they did before or what they might do in '08.

Yes, it's definitely fair to use Cameron and Kendall's numbers from past years as we're trying to predict what they're going to do. I definitely agree with that. And the fact that the only reason we got either player is because they had a huge down year last year and are both good bets to bounce back and out-produce what we got from those two spots last year.

 

I also think if you're using just OPS to compare Estrada and Kendall, you're missing the impact that Kendall's OBP will have. This teams problem is getting on base. Kendall and to a lesser degree Cameron will be a big help in that regard.