Yost should get kudos for keeping Turnbow out of there (OOPS...I jumped the gun.)

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I would just like to say that even a 3 year sample is pretty small when you break it down."

 

So Logan, even 3 YEARS worth of a sample isn't big enough? In many cases, that's longer than most dudes' entire careers!

 

At some point, a sample size has GOT to be large enough to use for argument's sake, don't ya think? If 3 years isn't large enough, what is? 5 years? 10 years?

 

Al the Thinking Man would be proud of you! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Thurston Fluff]

Everyone agrees that Villanueva got worn down near the end of the year last year. Why doesn't Turnbow get the same treatment?

 

If you mean physically I don't agree Villy wore down. Guys who physically wear down don't come back in September and make several very good starts to finish the season. Villy, by his own admission, wore down mentally. Given that he was in his first year relieving and how young he is that is understandable. Turnbow's situation is not anything like Villy's.

 

I think I'm with the camp that says that a guy who has a set of stipulations that have to be met before we can put him in a game isn't someone who should be making big money or really even taking up space on a roster.

 

Buy that man a beer. Perfect illustration of what has been wrong with our pen for the past couple years. Too many guys who couldn't just take the ball when asked and be expected to succeed in any situation asked. They either couldn't go back to back days, or needed to have another pitcher warming up because they couldn't pitch with men on base, (which for a reliever is almost absurd) or they couldn't go more than one inning, or they just weren't good enough to pitch in anything other than a blowout or extreme emergency.

One of the main reasons I felt Yost was unfairly critisized with his use of the pitching staff was because he was given such a dysfunctional staff to work with. You could combine all the skills of Cox, Weaver and LaRussa yet, with that toxic combination of misfits, they would have ended up with similar results. Obviously Melvin finally understood that and found some guys who can do what's asked of them. No matter what is asked of them.

[Fatter than Joey]

When looking at the 38 other pitchers above Turnbow who threw more pitches than him only Heath Bell had as many or more holds than Turnbow did with as many pitches thrown.

 

The Hold might be the silliest stat in all of baseball... You only get a hold if you come into a game in a save situation -- that means middle relievers that come into a 2-1 game on the losing end do not get a hold. Closers do not get holds, nor do pitchers that get the win -- I don't think in your application, holds mean much.

 

Also look at least years pitches per inning. 17.1 is a rather high number for a reliever to have.

 

It's really not -- there were 30 relievers in the NL that had as many or more pitchers per inning than Tbow.

 

That means he was either left in to long especially for what he was being used for last year as a setup man.

 

I disagree I think that if you look at the guys who threw 17+ pitches per inning, they were guys that were largely ineffective. Turnbow had the most BBs for a reliever in the NL last year as well. As far as Ned hooking Tbow, I agree that Ned is VERY slow to reacting to meltdowns -- however that is how Ned rolls, if you are his "8th inning pitcher" you pretty much pitch the whole inning regardless of the results.

 

Everyone agrees that Villanueva got worn down near the end of the year last year. Why doesn't Turnbow get the same treatment?

 

Villy pitched 11 more innings as a reliever than Turnbow in 2007, made a lot of multi-inning appearances, and was very effective -- Tbow on the other hand was not as good. Villy is also a younger pitcher who probably needed to be stretched out. If Tbow had made some 2-4 IP appearances like Villy did last year, I am sure we would have been a lot more forgiving. Basically Villy was handed the ball with guys on base, knowing he'd have to pitch 4 innings, in back to back days, etc..., and he performed admirably for the most part. With Tbow it seems like you have a list of situations you cannot use him in (can't pitch back to back, can't inherit runners, can't face guys who wait for his fastball, etc.), yet you are still exposed to the "meltdown" -- I don't think it is a big mystery why Villy's star is rising and Tbow's is falling.

 

Its just everyone remembering only the bad that Turnbow did last year

 

I don't think this is fair either. I think if Tbow had truly been effective and the negativity surrounding him was purely fan perception, Tbow would not have been bumped down by Gagne/Riske/Torres/Mota -- that is to say, I think DM has the same perception as we do.

 

Turnbow is adequate for the bullpen that we have. You can't have every single pitcher in the bullpen being the best.

 

This is a strawman argument -- no one here has ever stated that we need exclusively all-star closers in our BP. Tbow is fine at the back end of the BP.

 

Turnbow is still a serviceable relief pitcher if he is used correctly.

 

In games where the outcome is pretty much determined I would agree.

[rluzinski]

So Logan, even 3 YEARS worth of a sample isn't big enough? In many cases, that's longer than most dudes' entire careers!

 

Time is irrelevant; it's the number of events in each group that's key. The largest of any of the samples is 104 AB (batting #5). That isn't a very large sample.

 

The fact that the results of the split is so counterintuitive should be a huge clue that the the averages of the samples are probably misleading.

[1992casey]

So Logan, even 3 YEARS worth of a sample isn't big enough? In many cases, that's longer than most dudes' entire careers!

 

It's the number of occurrences within the sample rather than the time span of the sample. In this case, the largest sample we're seeing is 104 ABs. In a situation like this, the best choice is to examine other information.

 

Yes, many careers are short. But we are likely to be looking at extreme stats, too. You don't need as large a sample to be able tell that an ERA of 10.00 sucks. Either that or there's information that can used to supplement the stat du jour, such as a scouting or coach's report saying that a guy's velocity or control just aren't cutting it.

[jazzytrav]

Too many guys who couldn't just take the ball when asked and be expected to succeed in any situation asked.

I imagine this would be very true of a lot, if not all, MLB bullpens.

 

They either couldn't go back to back days, or needed to have another pitcher warming up because they couldn't pitch with men on base, (which for a reliever is almost absurd) or they couldn't go more than one inning, or they just weren't good enough to pitch in anything other than a blowout or extreme emergency.

I really don't think this is fair. Sure, they can go back-to-back days, but not ALL THE TIME. Look at Turnbow's gamelogs from last year.

 

April 3-4, then off until the 8th. May 19th, 20th, and 21st...off until the 27th. That pattern is apparent through the entire season.

 

Then he pitched May 27th, 28th, 29th, and the 30th. That's not back-to-back days...that's destroying a pitcher's arm. He threw 64 pitches in that 4 day stretch. That's essentially the same amount of pitches a starter would throw in that stretch of games, except Turnbow is throwing high 90s heat the entire time while probably being in more challenging game situations. He dominated for the first three games, then guess what happened on the 4th consecutive day of pitching; 3 runs on 18 pitches.

 

You can say all you want about how Turnbow should just be ready to come in to any situation and be successful, and to a certain extent I agree. But I blame a lot of his blowups on Yost mismanaging him and fans having a short leash for a guy that was completely dominant for 1.5 years not too long ago.

[TooLiveBrew]

That's essentially the same amount of pitches a starter would throw in that stretch of games

 

Huh?

[jazzytrav]

That's essentially the same amount of pitches a starter would throw in that stretch of games

 

Huh?

Except the starter throws them all at once, then has days of rest. Sorry, I wondered if that was confusing the way I said it.

 

And I realize that they're not equal, but if you figure a starter throws 100 pitches every 5 days (which usually doesn't happen anyway) and Turnbow threw 64 pitches in 4 days, they're very roughly similar.

[bobskube]

He has very little use to this team. He is very unreliable and cannot be trusted.

 

I say he will be traded for a PTBNL in June.

[brwrsfan]

Personally, I like Turnbow and think he can help this team. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if he was moved. The fans have lost trust in him, and I'd imagine that is effecting Turnbow, though he hasn't been put in a spot to be booed at home yet.

 

If we do trade him though, I would hope we could get slightly more for a PTBNL. He throws extremely hard, can be lights out and as has been pointed out, isn't as bad as people percieve him to be. I would at least hope for some sort of middle tiered prospect.

[Thurston Fluff]

If they had chose between trading Turnbow or releasing McClung and getting nothing I'd go for the trade. Hard throwing, erratic control, not to be trusted but can be useful at times, they seem like the same guy to me.

[theavrock]

Why would we get anything of value for Turnbow when we couldn't get anything of value for Vargas? Now don't get me wrong, I am not a Vargas fan, but he is a 4-5 starter in this league for a lot of teams, which has more value than a reliever who is a head case and can't control his pitches. Turnbow can throw hard, that's all he has going for him. I think it is hilarious how everyone thinks we can just trade away our garbage for something serviceable.

[Invader3K]

Seems like all this excess pitching we were supposedly going to be able to trade hasn't really worked out at all....mainly due to Capuano and Gallardo being injured, and also due to the fact that our "excess" guys like Turnbow aren't very good.

 

I think at best in terms of trading Turnbow, the Brewers could get a couple marginal prospects or maybe one of Melvin's patented "diamond in the rough" type guys. That's it.

[BrewCrewForever]

Turnbow did pitch bad yesterday. But that game was over before he came into the game.

[tristarscoop]

I'm wondering if we can pawn him off to a coach that is known for being able to get inside people's heads as a "fixer upper" case. I mean, he's got the pedigree with the velocity and the All-Star appearance... Hell, we were able to trade Matt Wise after all his head-case issues last season....

[Thurston Fluff]

I am not a Vargas fan, but he is a 4-5 starter in this league for a lot of teams,

If Vargas was good enough to be a 4 or 5 on a lot of team why is he playing in the minors for a team that has Nelson Figeroa starting in the majors? That should be clear enough evidence that he in fact is not good enough to start on any team.

I think it is hilarious how everyone thinks we can just trade away our garbage for something serviceable.

Two things about this. First maybe take into account the word "IF" means the comment came with a qualifier. If the choice was between trading one or loseing the other for nothing then I'd be for trading the one. That is not quite as hilariously stupid as me saying lets trade him because we will get something for one and not the other.
Second the garbage that was Wayne Franklin netted us some A ball pitcher who now starts for the Brewers. I'm sure that was hilarious as well. Brian Shouse was netted for a rule 5 shortstop who never made it back to the majors for Texas.

Genreally when a sentence contains the words "everyone" combined with "hilarious" it's a good idea to take a step back and reread your post before hitting reply.

[JJHardy7]

Did we trade Wise or was he DFA'd? I thought he was DFA'd.

[Thurston Fluff]

I thought they just didn't offer him arbitration.

[pretendastronaut]

Turnbow did pitch bad yesterday. But that game was over before he came into the game.

 

It was what, 4-1 when he came in? Granted we weren't swinging well at all yesterday, but a 3 run lead shouldn't be game over either. I'm quite curious how long Yost would have kept him out there last night if he didn't get that ground ball finally.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think at best in terms of trading Turnbow, the Brewers could get a couple marginal prospects or maybe one of Melvin's patented "diamond in the rough" type guys. That's it.

 

My theory has always been that DM (much like Vargas), has shopped Turnbow in the past, and teams have passed on him.

 

I'm wondering if we can pawn him off to a coach that is known for being able to get inside people's heads as a "fixer upper" case.

 

I really think his mental issues are overstated here -- I am sure a change of scenery would do him some good -- however, at the end of the day, I don't think he can locate his pitches well. I think for another team to want to see if they can "fix" him, Tbow will have to back on the scrap heap.

 

Did we trade Wise or was he DFA'd? I thought he was DFA'd.

 

We non-tendered Wise I think.

[1992casey]

Matt was designated for assignment.

[BrewCrewForever]

It was what, 4-1 when he came in? Granted we weren't swinging well at all yesterday, but a 3 run lead shouldn't be game over either.

 

The way we were swinging the bats, I sure felt like it was over.

[pretendastronaut]

It was what, 4-1 when he came in? Granted we weren't swinging well at all yesterday, but a 3 run lead shouldn't be game over either.

 

The way we were swinging the bats, I sure felt like it was over.

 

I don't disagree with that sentiment, but it doesn't mean I think Ned should have thrown in the towel on the game like it appeared he was doing either.

[rluzinski]

How a team is "swinging the ball" early in a game doesn't tell us much about what to expect in the later innings. Hot bats early doesn't necessarily mean hot bats late. Cold bats early doesn't necessaly mean cold bats late. We've all seen plenty of games illustrating that fact. The most important factor in determining the prospects of scoring is the opponents pitcher and the teams fielding.

 

The game was effectively over by the time Turnbow got in there because the Brewers were down 3 runs with 3 outs left. Here were the win probabilities for the Brewers before and after Turnbow:

 

4-1: 3.1%

6-1: .7%

 

If Turnbow is going to only be used in unimportant situations, last night certainly fit the bill. Someone has to pitch.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't disagree with that sentiment, but it doesn't mean I think Ned should have thrown in the towel on the game like it appeared he was doing either.

 

Throwing in the towel? It's a bit harsh to say. Taking a calculated risk maybe. The team was not doing much offensively and we have a player who, when on, does well. If he's on then the team will have a chance. If he's not then the team's chances of mounting a comeback go from slim to none. It's probably the best place to use him without seriously jeopardizing the team's chances of winning games he plays in. The chance of winning were so slim anyway that it would have been silly to waste a better arm for a marginally better chance of mounting a comeback. If Turnbow isn't used in those situations I just don't see which ones he should be used in. Blowouts with no hope go to McClung, close games go to Mota/Riske/torres combo, saves go to Gagne. What's left other than games not quite close but not so far off as to be a blowout?