Yost should get kudos for keeping Turnbow out of there (OOPS...I jumped the gun.)

[rluzinski]

How Turnbow should be used has nothing to do with his salary. It's completely irrelevant. That's something for fans to obsess over, not managers.

[Fatter than Joey]

How Turnbow should be used has nothing to do with his salary. It's completely irrelevant.

 

I don't think this is true -- McClung will get sent to Nashville before Mota does. If Gagne struggles he will go down to "setup" instead of getting demoted all the way down to garbage time.

[1992casey]

Geno sounds like Yost.

 

Geez, end. You've been around here long enough to know how to address the message rather than attack the messenger. There's a way to make your point without including what amounts to an insult.

 

Everyone who hangs around here a lot knows that Geno doesn't top the list of the Yost Supporters Brigade. Had you started a paragraph with something like, "It surprises me that you said that," and written an additional sentence or two explaining why, you would have made the same point without the condescension.

[TooLiveBrew]

I didn't know about Turnbow's injury, and I actually mentioned that I wouldn't mind seeing Derrick today. That said, it was very encouraging to see Gagne succeed today, after pitching the day before.

[rluzinski]

I don't think this is true -- McClung will get sent to Nashville before Mota does. If Gagne struggles he will go down to "setup" instead of getting demoted all the way down to garbage time.

 

I said "should" be used, not will be used. If Melvin is going to misuse guys because of his own pride, so be it.

 

Both of your above examples are true but that's because of what their salaries tell you of Melvin's opinion of them. Gagne wouldn't be sent down to garbage time not because he makes a lot of money but because Melvin thinks he's a very good pitcher. That's why he was paid so much to begin with. A week or two of bad results shouldn't change Melvin's opinion of him.

 

Melvin took a pretty decent risk when he signed Turnbow after only a single good year in 2005. At this point, Melvin realizes he was wrong, which is why his role HAS drastically changed since 2005.

[danzig6767]

I wouldn't want Turnbow as the strictly 8th inning guy, but i wouldn't have any problem if Ned used Turnbow in the 7th or 8th inning in some close games. I see no reason to think i should trust Mota more than Turnbow.

[davego]

I guess with Derrick the situations where he has been successful and where he isn't are so dramatic, it is hard to give Ned a pass if he uses Turnbow counter to that data. I'll agree that it certainly limits the pen and to some extent ties Ned's hands. If the 'Crew, however is going to keep him...it is what it is.

[Thurston Fluff]

The main problem with Turnbow last year was that he was overworked which caused him to collapse in September.

 

He only worked 68 innings last year in 77 appearances. I don't think he was even in the top 15 in either innings or appearances last season. The whole he was overworked thing is just a myth.

 

This year Ned has plenty of new toys to play with. Some of which are way cooler than the ones he had to play with last year. I'm not surprised he's using them. Mota, Riske, Torres = Buzz Lightyear

[Fatter than Joey]

If Melvin is going to misuse guys because of his own pride, so be it.

 

I think that this happens all the time. Melvin would not be the first or the last.

 

Gagne wouldn't be sent down to garbage time not because he makes a lot of money but because Melvin thinks he's a very good pitcher.

 

If Gagne "lost it" -- I am not talking about a couple of rough outings -- but if became apparent Gagne was not able to pitch at a high level, Gagne would not be released or relegated to garbage time.

 

Melvin took a pretty decent risk when he signed Turnbow after only a single good year in 2005. At this point, Melvin realizes he was wrong, which is why his role HAS drastically changed since 2005.

 

Right, however the financial investment in Turnbow keeps the Brewers from releasing him or dumping off to another team. When Turnbow was ineffective in 2006, they just quit using him, instead of sending him out in garbage time. I think DM knew that he had 2 more years of Tbow, and had to salvage him for 2007 and 2008 rather than throwing him to the wolves.

[Tbadder]

Does anyone else see Mota and Turnbow as essentially the same pitcher (though Mota can go extra innings). They seem like that kind of pitcher with excellent to electric stuff that never quite learn how to handle it properly. I'd like to see Turnbow get his chance in the 8th inning with the usual proviso of bringing him in at the beginning of an inning. I think that Turnbow's value need to be increased.

[Fatter than Joey]

The way I can tell them apart is that Mota is the one with the blue glove.

[Never Outhustled]

He only worked 68 innings last year in 77 appearances. I don't think he was even in the top 15 in either innings or appearances last season. The whole he was overworked thing is just a myth.

I think most of the relievers threw a ton of pitches in the bullpen without getting into the game, because each reliever was used in just 1 specific role. Using the relievers in rotation, which is the plan this year, should help eliminate wasting pitchers in the bullpen, and forcing pitchers to pitch in back to back games.

[endaround]

I think most of the relievers threw a ton of pitches in the bullpen without getting into the game, because each reliever was used in just 1 specific role. Using the relievers in rotation, which is the plan this year, should help eliminate wasting pitchers in the bullpen, and forcing pitchers to pitch in back to back games.

You would think that but Turnbow already did a day after night this year.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

I think most of the relievers threw a ton of pitches in the bullpen without getting into the game, because each reliever was used in just 1 specific role.

 

I don't get this. Most teams have a setup man in the same role as Turnbow. I doubt he warmed up without getting into a game any more often than any other pitcher. If Turnbow's troubles only appeared in August or September then maybe it could be attributed to his workload. But he was erratic well before that point. To me the idea of his workload being the problem is less reality then the fact that he simply couldn't throw strikes all the time. The Angels gave up on him even though he had an upper 90's fastball. that only happens to a guy when he has control issues. Those same issues were to blame, not his workload IMO.

[rluzinski]

FTJ: We seem to be arguing past each other, at least one the first point. Geno said:

 

"I don't think it's too much to ask of a multi-million dollar veteran, a former All-Star, to come in and shut the door, especially when we're sorely lacking a 2nd lefty in the pen."

 

I said: "How Turnbow should be used has nothing to do with his salary. It's completely irrelevant.

 

You said: "I don't think this is true -- McClung will get sent to Nashville before Mota does. If Gagne struggles he will go down to "setup" instead of getting demoted all the way down to garbage time. "

 

As you can see, your comment doesn't even oppose mine; we are talking about two different things (what a GM should do based vs. what they actually do).

 

I went on to try and explain that salary generally correlated to expected future performance, which is why high priced players generally and deservingly get a longer leash. Many fans seem to think that previous performance is irrelevant, which is why they are so quick to cry foul when a high priced player isn't benched after 2 bad months. McClung would be sent to Nashville before Mota because Melvin most likely thinks he's the better player, which is why he was willing to take on his salary in the first place.

 

I'm sure than GMs sometimes allow the salary of a player to cloud their judgment. I just don't think it occurs as often as people think.

[Fatter than Joey]

Fair enough.

[tristarscoop]

Is it really too much to expect that a reliever could be available for two games in a row?

 

I think I'm with the camp that says that a guy who has a set of stipulations that have to be met before we can put him in a game isn't someone who should be making big money or really even taking up space on a roster.

 

I find it hard to believe that there's some fundamental physical difference between starters and relievers that allows starters to pitch 100 pitches but relievers to pitch 20-30 and not be able to do so again without rest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that thought doesn't jive in my head.

[jazzytrav]

I find it hard to believe that there's some fundamental physical difference between starters and relievers that allows starters to pitch 100 pitches but relievers to pitch 20-30 and not be able to do so again without rest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that thought doesn't jive in my head.

I wouldn't say it's a specific physical difference, but more of a result of habit. Starters generally pitch late into games all at one time and are good at pacing themselves. Relievers usually come in for an inning or less, so they let it all fly for that short time. Also keep in mind that the starter that throws 100 pitches gets 4 days rest before doing it again. If you had a starter throw 30 pitches and get lit up, you wouldn't expect him to go out the next night and be rested, would you?

 

As for Turnbow, I agree with whoever said that he's a bit of a head case, but I also think fans in general were too quick to completely turn on him. Any one of us would be a "head case" as well if fans treated us the way that they have Turnbow. As I said in another thread, the guy can't get to ball 2 without 30,000 people booing him. It's idiotic in my opinion. Give the guy a break.

[endaround]

I find it hard to believe that there's some fundamental physical difference between starters and relievers that allows starters to pitch 100 pitches but relievers to pitch 20-30 and not be able to do so again without rest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that thought doesn't jive in my head.

also keep in mind that Turnbow doesn't do a windup. Like most relievers its all from the stretch. Given they basically tried to erase all leg kick to keep Turnbow accurate it likely affects him more than most.

 

[nate82]

Turnbow last year was over worked even though the number of appearances doesn't show that. Even with the stats that I will show you won't even show you how over worked he was. Because the stats do not include pitches thrown in the bullpen.

 

SEASON	TEAM	W%	#PIT	TBF	#P/PA	#P/IP
2007	Mil	.444	1165	292	3.99	17.1

Now this was the first time Turnbow even threw over 1100 pitches in his career. Yeah I think that will kill your arm over a season.

 

Also when you look at Turnbow's stats from last year you will find something rather interesting. He does worse against #6 and #7 hitters than he does against #3 to #5 hitters. Also when you look at his other stats you will see that Turnbow is best when given 1 or 2 days off. When he pitches back to back games last year he had these stats.

 

Rest (as reliever)	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
0	8.72	2	4	0	1	27	0	0	21.2	22	21	21	4	16	26	.253
1	1.05	0	0	1	2	26	0	0	25.2	8	3	3	0	11	33	.099
2	0.00	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	6.2	2	0	0	0	5	8	.095

Check out the big difference when he is given one day off.

 

Turnbow can be good or bad depending on his control of his breaking ball pitches. When he doesn't have control of his breaking ball Yost should be yanking him. The problem is Ned is not doing that. Other than that Turnbow is an average reliever which is perfectly fine. You can't have all above average or perfect relievers in your bullpen its nearly impossible. Just look at the Yankees they have Hawkins and Farnsworth in their bullpen. Both of them are worse than Turnbow.

[TooLiveBrew]

Also when you look at Turnbow's stats from last year you will find something rather interesting. He does worse against #6 and #7 hitters than he does against #3 to #5 hitters. Also when you look at his other stats you will see that Turnbow is best when given 1 or 2 days off. When he pitches back to back games last year he had these stats.

 

But it's how he did, not a predictive 'how he does'. I think that's really important to bear in mind. You'd have to have a lot more than just one season -- especially for a RP -- to be able to try & conclude anything about how Derrick does v. different parts of the lineup.

[Fatter than Joey]

Now this was the first time Turnbow even threw over 1100 pitches in his career.

 

34 RPs threw more pitches than Turnbow last year. In 2006 Tbow threw 1093 pitches -- I dont think those 7 pitches were a big deal.

[nate82]

3 year average

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #1	62	0	11	2	0	1	6	9	1	16	0	0	.177	.288	.258	.546
Batting #2	62	0	10	1	0	1	5	8	0	20	0	0	.161	.257	.226	.483
Batting #3	82	0	15	4	0	1	10	6	2	27	1	0	.183	.256	.268	.524
Batting #4	90	0	22	3	1	4	9	12	1	30	1	0	.244	.340	.433	.773
Batting #5	104	0	23	6	2	2	12	10	0	33	0	2	.221	.287	.375	.662
Batting #6	83	0	19	2	2	4	11	21	1	23	3	0	.229	.390	.446	.836
Batting #7	83	0	26	4	0	2	17	16	1	25	1	2	.313	.422	.434	.855
Batting #8	70	0	15	4	0	2	5	16	1	21	0	0	.214	.368	.357	.725
Batting #9	71	0	8	0	1	0	9	11	0	22	0	0	.113	.226	.141	.367

2007

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #1	15	0	3	1	0	0	4	4	0	3	0	0	.200	.350	.267	.617
Batting #2	20	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	8	0	0	.100	.217	.100	.317
Batting #3	27	0	6	1	0	0	4	2	1	8	1	0	.222	.300	.259	.559
Batting #4	31	0	6	0	0	0	3	5	0	14	1	0	.194	.306	.194	.499
Batting #5	39	0	6	0	1	1	5	3	0	16	0	1	.154	.209	.282	.491
Batting #6	34	0	8	1	0	2	4	10	0	10	1	0	.235	.409	.441	.850
Batting #7	31	0	8	1	0	0	4	8	1	10	0	2	.258	.425	.290	.715
Batting #8	24	0	1	0	0	1	2	6	0	9	0	0	.042	.233	.167	.400
Batting #9	20	0	4	0	1	0	6	5	0	6	0	0	.200	.346	.300	.646

When looking at the 38 other pitchers above Turnbow who threw more pitches than him only Heath Bell had as many or more holds than Turnbow did with as many pitches thrown. Also look at least years pitches per inning. 17.1 is a rather high number for a reliever to have. That means he was either left in to long especially for what he was being used for last year as a setup man.

 

Everyone agrees that Villanueva got worn down near the end of the year last year. Why doesn't Turnbow get the same treatment? If you look at how many games Turnbow lost for the Brewers last year it wasn't any worse than anyone else in the bullpen did last year. Its just everyone remembering only the bad that Turnbow did last year. Every time Turnbow did something good last year it was oh just wait until his next outing he will blow up then.

 

Turnbow is adequate for the bullpen that we have. You can't have every single pitcher in the bullpen being the best. Look at my comment from before. Even the Yankees have two very bad relievers in their pen with Farnsworth and Hawkins. Turnbow is still a serviceable relief pitcher if he is used correctly.

[logan82]

I am not disagreeing with any of your points nate. I would just like to say that even a 3 year sample is pretty small when you break it down. Thank you for the 3 year splits though. Very interesting.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thank you for the 3 year splits though. Very interesting.

 

Agreed -- I should've noted that earlier.