Looking at the future

[Gopher74]

Plus, if the money is flowing then it's flowing to big market teams as well, and if they earmark and player and really want that player, well, there's nothing the Brewers are going to do about it.

 

Yea, but the big market teams have always had that money. The only thing that's happened is that the big market teams are now paying money out to the rest of the league, so actually, they've got less money.

 

The bleakness I'm talking about is the lack of minor league prospects. I'd be shocked if they can afford Sheets, but hey I've been wrong everyday of my life just ask my ex-wife.

The bleakness you're talking about is how bad our pitching will be in 2009. Again, we have no idea how Gallardo, Parra and Villy develop. Those three right there could give you a great 1-2-3. Maybe YO turns out to be an ace, and the other two not as good. I don't know, which is my point.

 

And while I would contend that Melvin can find a closer (he seems to have the knack) that's very different from finding a real live ace.

Of course it is. I don't think anyone would argue that.

 

But hey, back to Sheeter, despite all the money that's coming in I still don't believe it. Major contracts are on the horizon for Prince and Ryan and maybe JJ and if Yo breaks out. What if they keep Cameron? What if Suppan is untradeable (be honest do you want him on your team at that salary?). There's plenty of money that's gonna be spent.

Well yea, there are a ton of what it's. I don't think Suppan will be untradeable. I don't understand why everyone seems to think it'd be so hard to trade him. The Mets, the team that was thought to be the favorites to sign him when he surprised them and signed with us before last season are losing 3/5th of your rotation next year. 2 years isn't a long commitment, and 12.5 million is hardly outrageous. Put him on a team that scores runs in a pitchers park, and I believe there will be several teams looking at him. And I could play the what if's as well. What if we trade Suppan. What if Sheets wants to say in Milwaukee? What if Mark A is co-producer on the next "House" with his Brother. I don't know about all the what if's.

And yea, we're going to need to sign those players. But it's still a couple years before most of them get big money. Lets not forget, we don't have to find 15 million in our budget to sign him, we need to find another 4-5 million.

And yea, there is still plenty of money to be spent. But we've also got a lot more money than people seem to recognize. In 2010 the Brewers should get roughly 80 million dollars right off the top before they factor in ticket sales or anything else. I don't recall the specifics, but the Yanks and Mets while building their stadiums didn't have to pay out as much the last couple years, which ends the year they move into their stadiums. My point is, this team should be up to near 100 million in the next couple years without extending itself that much.

 

But no, they very well may not sign Sheets. I'm not saying they will. I'm simply stating that it's not like it was 5 years ago, and moreover, even if they don't resign him, they've got very good young talent right now that is developing.

 

 

And while I remain extremely pessimistic about next year's pitching staff

It just seems to me that you've almost got to go out of your way to be pessimistic about NEXT years team right now. Hell, we don't have any idea what it's going to look like next year, so saying that it looks bleak when we can probably say for certain about 6 of the pitchers that will make up that staff is insanely premature.

 

Even if we lose Ben Sheets, I can envision a scenario in which we're better next year.

Sign a guy like Derek Lowe, Yo becomes an ace, Parra becomes a reliable number 2. We sign Juan Cruz from the D-backs.

A rotation of Yo, Parra, Lowe, Suppan, Villanueva. BP of Juan Cruz, Luis Pena, Salomon Torres, David Riske, Brian Shouse, McClung...

 

I don't know..I'm pulling that from my arse, but that's my point. It's so far off, how can we say that it's bleak? A million things can happen. Maybe McClung becomes a starter next year and turns into Fausto Carmona?

[Gopher74]

As for next year's closer, gagne looks pretty good lately. We signed him to a premium contract this year when nobody else wanted him. I would think that might mean something to him. if I was Melvin, would I want to invest $48 million over 4 years to retain Gagne? That's his call, not mine. I always say - see a need - fill a need.

I can't imagine the Brewers would even entertain that notion. I certainly hope they wouldn't. While I'll argue they've got money to spend, they do have to be almost perfect with it. Gange's injury concern hasn't really been brought up on here for the most part because we signed him for a 1 year deal, but if we signed him for 4 years at 12 a year, that would probably cause us to lose someone else, and frankly, I don't believe even if he's healthy that he's worth anything near that.

Plus, when you look at this FA market, there really are some nice relievers out there. The two I keep going to are Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz. Cruz is a FA who is just filthy. Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood...there are some nice options that should be much cheaper.

Where is all the money going to come from? We'll say thanks for the memories to Cameron, Cappy, and Bush and trade Turnbow.

Not to mention I believe that the contract we signed Suppan to was specifically so we could deal him at this point. It was a Carlos Delgado-esque deal, and I believe worst case, we give him away to the Mets. But we should also draw 3 million this year, and we made a great deal of money last year after all was said and done. The only question is going to be how much does Mark A and his investors want to make? Either way, they're going to make money unless they spend about 130-140 million.

I really liked the Suppan, riske and Torres signings. I' m confident melvin will find some new pieces.

Lets not forget two arms that he brought in this year and late last year that have a lot of talent in Seth McClung and Chris Naverson. Now Naverson doesn't really have the fan fare and he has a lot to prove, but he was a top 3 prospect for a couple years for the Cardinals, has 4 pitches, is a lefty, can command them and has good velocity. Now clearly there's a reason hes' still in AAA, but if he can stay healthy, he's a possible factor next year, and if Seth McClung can get his control under wraps, he's a definite factor. He could even be a starter next year. Of course that's not likely, but it's becoming more possible with his progress.


Part of it is that small market teams just have to get lucky. Their big deals have to work, and they have to uncover few gems that come out of nowhere and develop into viable big league starters. Melvin's done a great job doing that, and IF they lose Sheets, they need to be able to have guys step up, and bring in another good arm which I think they'll do.

[Tbadder]

The bleakness you're talking about is how bad our pitching will be in 2009. Again, we have no idea how Gallardo, Parra and Villy develop. Those three right there could give you a great 1-2-3. Maybe YO turns out to be an ace, and the other two not as good. I don't know, which is my point.

 

Yes, I am pretty bleak about the 2009 staff too. Assuming, which I do, that Sheets is unsignable. Yo I think will develop into a very good 2 or 3. Para and Villy, you correctly point out we don't know about. If I'm speculating intelligently (hopefully) that Parra could be a good 2 or a good 3. Villy looks like a average 4 or good 5 to me.

 

But since we don't know, it might be just as likely that Yo reverts to a solid 3. Parra never gets beyond a 4. Villy ends up as a long man in relief.

 

That kind of uncertainty is a red flag if I'm a GM. And if I were a GM I'd be trying mightily to improve my starters. Now I'd take three startegies:

 

a) desparately searching for Sheets money in a forlorn hope we sign him

b) looking into a Young/Garza type off season trade

c) concentrating my extra draft choices on pitching

 

So in some ways we don't differe that much. You think Yo could be a 1; I think it's more likely he's a 2. You think Parra could be a 2, I agre. We seem to have a real difference of opinion on Villy though. Cool.

 

Even if we lose Ben Sheets, I can envision a scenario in which we're better next year.

Sign a guy like Derek Lowe, Yo becomes an ace, Parra becomes a reliable number 2. We sign Juan Cruz from the D-backs.

A rotation of Yo, Parra, Lowe, Suppan, Villanueva. BP of Juan Cruz, Luis Pena, Salomon Torres, David Riske, Brian Shouse, McClung...

 

I can't see us being a major player on the free agent market. Seeing that Lowe (who I don't believe is as good as Sheets) is going to command significantly more money than Suppan, I can't see the Crew being a player. Pena? I'm hoping; it'd be great, but I'm not holding my breath. I loved the Torres/Riske pick up. McClung...I'm hoping he gets cut this week, so we differ there.

[Gopher74]

Edit-Wow...sorry for the length. I guess I get talking Brewers and I just ramble on! Anyway, every word of it is pure genius, so...you're welcome..http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

 

Yes, I am pretty bleak about the 2009 staff too. Assuming, which I do, that Sheets is unsignable. Yo I think will develop into a very good 2 or 3. Para and Villy, you correctly point out we don't know about. If I'm speculating intelligently (hopefully) that Parra could be a good 2 or a good 3. Villy looks like a average 4 or good 5 to me.

 

First of all, why would Sheets be unsignable? We've certainly got the resources to sign him, he's said his preference would be to play in Milwaukee, and given the FA market, it's almost a perfect storm for the Brewers to be able to sign him since there are going to be other more highly sought after starting pitchers. I've gone over all this before, and maybe even already in this thread, but the Brewers are making a lot of money. They could and likely will be at 100 million within the next couple years. Right now, they're only spending about 20 million dollars of their own money on the payroll. So of all the money they make with ticket sales, merchandising, advertising, sponsorships, they're only putting 20 million of that into the team which is why it's easy to see how they made 50 million net last year.

 

I also look to the fact that Mark A has said ever year here that if that "ace" pitcher became available he'd gladly be willing to spend the 15 million dollars to sign him. This leads me to believe that they're not going to let Sheets go without a fight when they've already got that ace.

 

As for Gallardo and Parra, I think saying that Gallardo may be a 2 or 3 is selling him a bit short. You almost have to try and be pessimistic at this point to think of Gallardo as a possible number 3 starterhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif I agree that Parra's stuff is a little bit better as a lefty throwing 94-97 with four pitches that he can command(normally) is a potential true ace, but Gallardo's poise and command make him the type that could exceed the number that his stuff puts him at, which is a number 2.

 

And Villanueva to me is much more than an average 4 or 5. That's what Dave Bush is. Villy's got such a great change and his breaking ball has had so much more movement this year I think people get caught up in velocity and say that he's a 4 or 5. He's pitched really well for the most part thus far, but has just been the reciepiant of bad luck to a degree this year. I was at his Cincy game when he gave up that 2 run Hr and for the first 5 innings, he had the Reds so off balance. I see his ceiling as being significantly higher than a 5...more like a number 3.

 

And of course, Gallardo, Parra and Villy being 1's, 2's and 3's next year is assuming everything goes right, but that's my point. When we've got so much potential, you can't say a full year ahead of time that it looks so bleak.

 

 

That kind of uncertainty is a red flag if I'm a GM. And if I were a GM I'd be trying mightily to improve my starters. Now I'd take three startegies:

a) desparately searching for Sheets money in a forlorn hope we sign him
b) looking into a Young/Garza type off season trade
c) concentrating my extra draft choices on pitching

 

I guess my issue is that you seem to equate uncertainty with certain disaster sometimes. Uncertain isn't always a bad thing. I'd rather be uncertain about how good Parra can be than have a guy like Bush who I'm certain about.

 

And I don't disagree with those approaches. I think we're going to at least look into A and C and maybe B. Which again, was my point all along. I think we'll fix it and supplement what we have next year.

 

By the by, I believe that we go after a high cieling toolsy type player with that 16th pick, and then after a couple college pitchers who could and should move quickly as well as a prep pitcher or two with a big arm, and then a catcher.

 

By the way, I'd definitely be interested in a Tim Lincecum/Matt Cain for Corey Hart type deal next off-season. Yes, it'd be a lot to give up, but to get that frontline starter who's young and still cheap I'd give up Hart. Especially with Matt LaPorta on the way to take his place. I would hate to see Corey go though.

I can't see us being a major player on the free agent market. Seeing that Lowe (who I don't believe is as good as Sheets) is going to command significantly more money than Suppan, I can't see the Crew being a player. Pena? I'm hoping; it'd be great, but I'm not holding my breath. I loved the Torres/Riske pick up. McClung...I'm hoping he gets cut this week, so we differ there.

 

I think if we lose Ben Sheets, we're definitely going to try and sign a good solid big league pitcher to a 3-4 year deal. Perhaps we sign a guy like Jon Garland who's a FA. Basically a better version of Jeff Suppan. If you do that, then with the progress you can hope/expect out of your young arms, you may end up being at least as good as you were with Sheets, and maybe even better. Plus, I think you can get him for 4 years 42 million in this market. The same type of deal you got Suppan for even though he's better simply because it's such a deep FA class. I also think that he's the type that in his first year in the NL could see a big time jump in production.

 

He's averaged 32.5 starts roughly the last 6 years, and has a career ERA of 4.42 in the AL. Like I said, he'd be a much better version of Jeff Suppan, who I think is as good as gone this off-season giving the Brewers that much more room. How about this for a dream scenario. We re-sign Sheets for 4/65, trade Suppan, and then sign Garland for 3/33? Sure, that's very unlikely, but it goes back to my point. Melvin's done a fantastic job of putting this team together. He'll figure something out.

 

 

Oh, and finally, to conclude my novel, I see why you don't like McClung, but look at what he did yesterday? The key is him being able to do that consistently. Did you see that curve he threw to Lohse on the inside corner of the plate? It looked like a damn boomerang. He can be as nasty as just about any pitcher I've ever watched when he's going right...which of course is the problem because he can't do that consistently, but he's good enough that I think you try and hold onto him and hope he becomes a Bobby Jenks type.

[Tbadder]

By the way, I'd definitely be interested in a Tim Lincecum/Matt Cain for Corey Hart type deal next off-season. Yes, it'd be a lot to give up, but to get that frontline starter who's young and still cheap I'd give up Hart. Especially with Matt LaPorta on the way to take his place. I would hate to see Corey go though.

 

We agree on this for sure.

 

How about this for a dream scenario. We re-sign Sheets for 4/65, trade Suppan, and then sign Garland for 3/33? Sure, that's very unlikely, but it goes back to my point. Melvin's done a fantastic job of putting this team together. He'll figure something out.

 

Call me old school Brewer fan--I can't imagine the Brewers doling out this much money at once, especially with this new strategy of giving young studs like Tulo and Young large contracts. The money we throw at Braun and Fielder, if we do, is going to determine a lot.

 

I'll concede the point that Gallardo might develop into an ace, and that would be great. Maybe my problem is that my definition of an ace is someone who brings it at 95mph or devastates hitters with an unhittable curve/off speed pitch. I don't see either of those pitches for Yo. But Gallardo could become more of a Harang type ace I suppose. But in the end Sheets to me is the better pitcher, more ace-like if you will, and so that's why I probably think of Yo as a number2.

 

Parra just has too much to prove and no real track record when it comes to pitching 200 innings a year and consistently making it through 6/7 innings of work, and while I love the idea I can't count on it as a GM, and I'd have to be forced to act accordingly.

 

Villy we're never going to agree on, though I certainly hope you're correct.

[logan82]

How much money are we going to miss out on because the Yankees and Mets get to deduct their stadium costs from their luxury(payroll) tax? I think we are going to have to get to the post season just to offset that. I wouldn't be surprised if there is actually less money next year than this year.

[Tbadder]

Now, I could be totally off base here, but I heard we aren't getting any money because our payroll is sufficiently high.

[Gopher74]

Now, I could be totally off base here, but I heard we aren't getting any money because our payroll is sufficiently high.

No, that's not true. If that were true, that would only encourage teams like the Marlins to be cheap and defeat the entire purpose of revenue sharing. No, we'll get as much as 70 to start out the season next year, and certainly more than the 60 we received this year.

 

How much money are we going to miss out on because the Yankees and Mets get to deduct their stadium costs from their luxury(payroll) tax? I think we are going to have to get to the post season just to offset that. I wouldn't be surprised if there is actually less money next year than this year.

 

Both teams have been given a break the last couple years as it is, so that's not going to have any impact I don't believe. I believe it's been the last 3 years possibly, but at least the last 2, so that should be fine.

[Gopher74]

Call me old school Brewer fan--I can't imagine the Brewers doling out this much money at once, especially with this new strategy of giving young studs like Tulo and Young large contracts. The money we throw at Braun and Fielder, if we do, is going to determine a lot.

 

Well, in that scenario, it's really just be re-signing Sheets as we'd be paying only 8 million more for an extra year of Garland. But no, that's not likely. It's incredibly unlikely, yet my point was simply that there are an abundance of possibilities. However, lets keep the Tulo and Young signings in perspective. Tulo got what 31 million over 6 years? Young not much more. I'd be thrilled if we signed Braun or Prince to those types of deals. They're not exactly bad deals for teams like us. Those are encouraging deals. That sets the market for a guy like Braun. To get him for 6 years now, you're going to have to dole out an additional 13-15 million for that extra FA year, but it's still entirely reasonable.

 

And the point that keeps getting lost, is that these Brewers are playing on a whole new playing field financially. They'll never again be able to match payrolls with the Yankee's like they often did in the 80's, but they'll be able to say in that Braves/Cardinals range IMO.

 

I'll concede the point that Gallardo might develop into an ace, and that would be great. Maybe my problem is that my definition of an ace is someone who brings it at 95mph or devastates hitters with an unhittable curve/off speed pitch. I don't see either of those pitches for Yo. But Gallardo could become more of a Harang type ace I suppose. But in the end Sheets to me is the better pitcher, more ace-like if you will, and so that's why I probably think of Yo as a number2.

 

Yea, but the thing is, Yo's got that 95 MPH fastball. Yo can even run it up to 96, and with that power curve that appears to be very similar to his fastball with his deliver and movement until the last second, that can be that devastating combination. I'll think that he's got better stuff than Harang. Harang is a guy who sits around 88-90 for the most part, topping out at 93. Yo sits at about 91-93 topping out at 95/96, so he's definitely a step ahead stuff wise. He's also got a developing change and slider that he can go to and that he can command at this point. Neither are quote-unquote "out pitches" at this point, but they're good solid, "get ahead pitches, and may develop into out pitches. Hell, the kid is 22 years old.

Parra just has too much to prove and no real track record when it comes to pitching 200 innings a year and consistently making it through 6/7 innings of work, and while I love the idea I can't count on it as a GM, and I'd have to be forced to act accordingly.

Yea, but you're not a GM. You're a fan stating that our rotation and staff look bleak next year before you afford Parra the chance to develop. And of course he doesn't have a track record of pitching 200 innings. Gallardo threw 155 and 121 in his two years in the minors. No minor leaguers go 200 innings. The fact however remains that Parra's got great stuff. He's got better stuff than Gallardo. Just another point that it's entirely too early to make declarations about our 09 staff.

 

 

 

 

And I guess I don't understand the lack of confidence in Villanueva. Velocity is important, but it's number 4 behind location, movement and changing speeds. If anything, even with worse results, Villy's breaking ball has given me more confidence in him thus far this year. His change, and Curve are plus pitches now, and his fastball just needs to be located like it was last year for us. A guy can't dominate in the role we used him in last year if he's just a number 5.