Looking at the future

[barbados73]

I've recently been thinking a lot about the Brewers SP situation with Sheets being a FA at the end of the year. They appear to be in a no win situation. If he performs great the Brewers won't be able to afford him and if he sucks or gets injured the Brewers won't want him. So I am basically figuring that Sheets won't be back. With that being said, would/should the Brewers consider dealing for Matt Cain of the Giants? Supposedly last offseason he was offered for Alex Rios. What if the Brewers offered either Corey Hart or maybe something like Matt LaPorta and ??. This would give the Brewers 4 good young SPs(Cain, Gallardo, Villaneuva, and Parra). I just think that the Brewers are going to have to make a move for a SP if they lose Sheets.

 

On a little bit different thought process, what if the Brewers dealt Suppan in the offseason and used the money Suppan would have earned along with the money Sheets is making to either resign Ben or go after another "ace" like Sabathia or someone?

[dadofandrew]

The Brewers, or no other small market team will go after CC...if the Crew can afford $20M, others can pay $25-30M.

 

I would assume it will be draft picks for Ben. With his injury history, it'd be crippling to give him market value. For the Red Sox, not so much.

[Tbadder]

I'm with you on this one. The Brewers starting pitching looks bleak after this year. I hope they take a true win now approach because it's gonna get ugly next year. There really is no alternative but trading or signing more Suppan type pitchers in the hopes that Jeffress turns out to be real. I'd actually support a monster deal like the Young/Garza trade next year. But hey, this year's gonna be exciting so lets bury our heads.

 

P.S. We'll probably need a closer as well next year unless we go with Riske which is gonna be ridiculous.

[twobrewers]

P.S. We'll probably need a closer as well next year unless we go with Riske which is gonna be ridiculous.

What about Luis Pena?

With that being said, would/should the Brewers consider dealing for Matt Cain of the Giants?

That's not too bad of an idea. But I doubt Corey Hart is going anywhere. The thing to remember is that next year YoGa should be mature enough to become a quality #1. Parra has all of the potential to be a quality #2. That leaves Villanueva and Suppan as the #3 and #4 which suits them fine. So all we technically need for a very respectable staff is a #5. (Which could very well be Bush)

 

However, since the Giants are going to be bad for years yet. I would be willing to trade a few young bats (Escobar/LaPorta) for Cain or Lincecum. Remember, the Brewers don't need LaPorta next year. They have an option on Cameron that might be attractive to the Brewers.

[endaround]

I'm really leary of Cain. like I've probably said before. His numbers seem to be driven by a low HR/rate and given his home park not sure how good he'll be in a more home run neutral park.

[Tbadder]

Yeah, I'm hoping on Pena for that closer role, but I'm skeptical. In fact I think the Brewers are going to take the best college closer available this year.

 

I'd rather have Main than Cain.

[Gopher74]

I'm with you on this one. The Brewers starting pitching looks bleak after this year. I hope they take a true win now approach because it's gonna get ugly next year. There really is no alternative but trading or signing more Suppan type pitchers in the hopes that Jeffress turns out to be real. I'd actually support a monster deal like the Young/Garza trade next year. But hey, this year's gonna be exciting so lets bury our heads.

 

P.S. We'll probably need a closer as well next year unless we go with Riske which is gonna be ridiculous.

Man, you are the most negative person on this board. It's April 14th and you're already talking about how bleak out starting pitching looks next year. That's amazing to me.

 

First of all, the Brewers fan afford to re-sign Sheets. There's no much question about that. It's a matter of if they want to. There are some who believe that he'll take a hometown discount to come back. I don't know. What I do know is that the Brewers made 50 million dollars last year, they get 60 million dollars right off the bat from MLB from revenue sharing, a amount that will increase in the next couple years, and they're breaking records in attendance. And if they trade Suppan, they could definitely afford him.

 

But, lets say they don't. WE have no idea what our rotation is going to look like in a year. Gallardo may prove he's an ace, Parra may have a big coming out party, Villy establish himself as a good middle of the rotation type, and then you could round out your rotation with Suppan and Bush. So to say that it looks bleak right now is not only premature based on what we've got locked up for next year, but premature in that we don't know WHO'S going to be here next year.

 

Personally, I think the Brewers offer Sheets 3-4 years at 15-16 million. Maybe 3 years 48 to even 4 years and 65. And it may not even end up being that much. With CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, John Smotlz, Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Lackey and several, several more good Free Agents next year, it might really allow Sheets to sign much cheaper than he would have last year for instance(if he had a good season like we're assuming he'll have this year for the sake of argument).

 

 

 

As for the closer spot, again, just insanely early to even think about it, but we've got a lot of different directions we could go. First, Riske's a good pitcher, so while he may not be the ideal closer, it's certainly not ridiculous. But with Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz from AZ FA's next year, Fuentes...and about 6-7 other viable closing options, we should be able to find someone fairly easily.

[TooLiveBrew]

First, Riske's a good pitcher, so while he may not be the ideal closer, it's certainly not ridiculous.

 

Riske's good enough that I hope he isn't forced into the 'closer' role.

[Gopher74]

First, Riske's a good pitcher, so while he may not be the ideal closer, it's certainly not ridiculous.

 

Riske's good enough that I hope he isn't forced into the 'closer' role.

No, I don't imagine he will be. We solved it this year when Tbadder didn't think we would, and I'm confident we'll solve it next year. With Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon and several other really good young relievers on the market who could be closers, I think that was part of Melvin's thought process when he basically locked up a Bullpen on one year deals. The only guy we're committed to for next year is the one guy I feel confident will be the same guy next year.

 

My point is that if he was, it's not like we'd be throwing the closers role to McClung. What do you really think the difference would be from Riske to a above average closer? Not a whole lot.

 

 

[sheetswannabe]

Wheres Mike Adams?

[TooLiveBrew]

Actually, he's pitching in Portland for the Pads' AAA club, the Beavers. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Tbadder]

The bleakness I'm talking about is the lack of minor league prospects. I'd be shocked if they can afford Sheets, but hey I've been wrong everyday of my life just ask my ex-wife.

 

The way were starting to churn out major league position players you'd think some of that would rub off on the pitchers. We got Yo, and that's true and wonderful. Now produce one Yo-type starter every other year or every third year--we're still a small market team and will live and die by our minor league system.

 

But hey, back to Sheeter, despite all the money that's coming in I still don't believe it. Major contracts are on the horizon for Prince and Ryan and maybe JJ and if Yo breaks out. What if they keep Cameron? What if Suppan is untradeable (be honest do you want him on your team at that salary?). There's plenty of money that's gonna be spent.

 

Plus, if the money is flowing then it's flowing to big market teams as well, and if they earmark and player and really want that player, well, there's nothing the Brewers are going to do about it.

 

And while I would contend that Melvin can find a closer (he seems to have the knack) that's very different from finding a real live ace.

 

And while I remain extremely pessimistic about next year's pitching staff, our offense might be the best in baseball next year. I'm also really optimistic about the long term state of our minors after we pick up the four extra picks this year, and the four extra picks next year for Sheets and Gagne if the lion share of those picks are pitchers.

[Tbadder]

Gopher74 wrote:

 

We solved it this year when Tbadder didn't think we would, and I'm confident we'll solve it next year.

Whoa Gopher! Look I know you're an intelligent guy and I enjoy reading your posts, and I hope your optimism trumps my pessimism, but please don't tell me what I think. In fact I did think we would find a closer for this year. Now lets have a beer and some laughs cause believe it or not I'm on your side and anyone else who's a Brewer fan even if we disagree.

[Big Reed]

I fully believe the brewers have the money to re-sign Sheets. it's more a matter if he wants to resign with the brewers and if the brewers sign both braun and Fielder to long term contracts. I have to believe the brewers will keep sheets the entire year and offer him a contract after the year. if he leaves, we'll get 2 first round picks, and we'll have $15 million to lure another pitcher here.

 

As for next year's closer, gagne looks pretty good lately. We signed him to a premium contract this year when nobody else wanted him. I would think that might mean something to him. if I was Melvin, would I want to invest $48 million over 4 years to retain Gagne? That's his call, not mine. I always say - see a need - fill a need.

 

Where is all the money going to come from? We'll say thanks for the memories to Cameron, Cappy, and Bush and trade Turnbow.

 

I really liked the Suppan, riske and Torres signings. I' m confident melvin will find some new pieces.

 

I also liked the Linebrink signing although i had hoped melvin would have acted sooner to plug the hole in our bullpen. I'll like the Linebrink signing even more on draft day when we sign two players who could be at AA by year's end. Our minor league system may not look very deep or filled with prospects right now. but around July, we'll have a better guess at what Jeffress and Rogers can do, and we'll be able to restock our farm with a couple of firs t and second round picks. Unlike many other clubs, the brewers have been very good about getting their picks signed early.

[TooLiveBrew]

We traded for Linebrink, to nitpick. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I really liked the Suppan... signing.

Ironically, it's that signing that's going to play a huge role in whether or not the Crew can keep Sheets. If the Suppan contract can get moved this offseason, then there's plenty of room to ink Ben. If not, his raise from $8 mil. to $12.5 mil. for 2009 will be a crippling blow to any shot at retaining Sheets.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The Brewers have gone a few years without developing quality starting pitchers. Before Sheets, you have to go back to D'Amico, Karl, Woodard, none of whom had particularly long or distinguished careers. The last really successful pitchers were in the Navarro / Wegman / Bosio / Eldred era...and in the context of franchise history that's a notable fraction of the homegrown pitchers who were successful. So allow me to be a half-full guy here for a moment...Gallardo, Parra, and Villanueva look like a pretty solid haul for a two or three year stretch. Given that those three look likely to be effective and cheap for the next couple of years, that leaves some room to sign a free agent starter to fill things out.

 

While there isn't anyone in AA or AAA that looks like a front-end starter, there are some good arms in the lower levels...it's premature to pencil any of those guys into roles yet, but the team has acquired some good arms in the draft, particularly via the DFE process. Presumably we'll see some pitching in the June draft this year, and if Sheets does indeed leave that will give us additional picks to play with. And the solid everyday lineup means the team could indeed deal position players for arms...whether that be a young major leaguer or prospects.

[Never Outhustled]

Ironically, it's that signing that's going to play a huge role in whether or not the Crew can keep Sheets. If the Suppan contract can get moved this offseason, then there's plenty of room to ink Ben. If not, his raise from $8 mil. to $12.5 mil. for 2009 will be a crippling blow to any shot at retaining Sheets.

The Brewers salary cap is self imposed. Its based off the teams projected earnings. Therefore, Suppan helps the team win and earn more money, so his signing increases the teams self imposed salary cap. Its always important to win now, to hepl build the teams budget.

 

The only thing that effects retaining Sheets is the clubs confidence in Sheets durability.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers salary cap is self imposed. Its based off the teams projected earnings. Therefore, Suppan helps the team win and earn more money, so his signing increases the teams self imposed salary cap. Its always important to win now, to hepl build the teams budget.

 

Well, your comment on Suppan is highly subjective, and you'd find many here to disagree strongly. I'm kind of 'meh' about Suppan. I think he is what he is, and in 2010 his contract won't look so bad. But for the time being, I think his deal very much plays a role in re-signing Sheets. Like it or not, the salary considerations are there for good reason, and to just start spending to retain anyone that's good so we can 'win now' seriously ignores the fiscal realities facing this organization in the next 5 or so years.

 

Sure, you want to 'win now', but you also don't want to end up like San Francisco.

[Never Outhustled]

Sure, you want to 'win now', but you also don't want to end up like San Francisco

There's something we can agree on. San Fran is bad on bad.

 

As for the source of their suckatude, I think I read recently that they have drafted and developed a starting position player since the 80s. If thats correct, yuck. The ability to draft is ultra-important.

[TooLiveBrew]

The ability to draft is ultra-important

Very true. I wonder how much FA spending impacted their draft pick pools over the seasons.

[ILuvDaBush]

Do people really think that pitchers like Yo come along for a team every two to three years? Outside of the Braves, I don't think a team in the last twenty years has mass-produced Yo-quality pitchers with relative ease, unless you want to count the Cubs' rise of Wood and Prior. Are we counting that? I will admit I'm very high on the Yo, but even with a dim view of his ability and quality, I still find it hard to believe that our pitching future is bleak, when you also have Parra/Villy...Bush. And maybe the most electric arm in the minors, Jeffress. As for closer, honestly, the guy I would be eyeing if we truly need that elite arm at the end would be Jon Rauch. Supposedly, the Tigers have been trying to acquire him which would lead me to believe he's available, probably for less than they would ask (or did ask) for Chad Cordero (Rickie Weeks...No gracias. Alcides Escobar....you can replace Christian Guzman).

[Oldcity]

The top priority should be either retaining Sheets or replacing him with another ace. That is more important than extending any individual offensive player IMO.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think a team in the last twenty years has mass-produced Yo-quality pitchers with relative ease

 

No team produces pitchers like Yo with ease or any top flight pitcher for that matter.

 

In the last 20 years though, the Brewers have been pretty miserable at producing pitching.

 

The A's produced Haren, Zito, Mulder, and Hudson -- for a quick example.

[Tbadder]

It seems to me that the Braves rode their starting pitching to about ten division titles.

 

But that's all water under the bridge so to speak. the fact is that the Brewers, in order to stay competitive, are going to have to produce more pitching--both starters and relievers. Yo and Parra maybe a great start--now lets add some relievers.

 

We're probably gonna be ace-less next year--let the machinations begin!

[saget]

Zito/Hudson/Mulder were all selected within 2 years of each other(1997-1999), not really consistently over a 20 year period. I think it would be hard to find a team that actually can consistently develop great pitching.

 

You could go through each team in the MLB and only think of two or three great pitchers in that teams existance.