The Gabe Kapler Thread

[endaround]

My only real problem with him doing so well is that they're gonna be forced to keep him after Cameron comes on board, and the last thing they need is another righthanded hitter on the bench.

Not really sure why the bench needs 3 left handed hitters to begin with. You already have Gross and Counsell. The biggest reason to keep Gwynn has more to do with his base running than with his hitting.

 

[Kurt]

I think it's safe to say that come a few weeks there will be one too many Gabe's on the roseter and gross is the one that has to go.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I was going to start a Gabe Kapler appreication thread a few days ago, but splitter beat me to it.

 

This guy has helped us tremendously this year.

[TheCrew07]

It's still early fellas, but he's done nice things so far.

[southpaw121505]

Start him regularly (until Cam returns) please.

[ELCABALLO45]

Start Gabe everyday until Gwynn or Cameron comes back.

[brewmann04]

Have to say so far that have to give melvin credit again for getting Kaplar

[jason21nl]

I was one of the many that didn't want Kapler on the team, even though I didn't know anything about him. All I knew about him was that he didn't play last year and was just someone that was going to fill some time before Cam got back. Now not only will he be here when he does come back, he'll likely get some good playing time.

[rluzinski]

Having a hot stretch similar to what Kapler is having right now isn't all that uncommon (although, I have to admit that it's extreme, even for a hit streak). That's only a little over a week of regular ABs, after all. Many players have had a streak like that at some point in their career. People just notice it more when it happens to start the season. Remember Gwynn's first 36 AB last year?

 

.417/.500/.500/1.000

 

More than a few people were calling for Gwynn to be made the full time starter after that and were using that sample as evidence that his stick was finally ready for prime time. Unfortunately, this is how he finished the 2007 season (87 AB):

 

.195/.247/.241 /.488

 

Heck, Let me pick the worst hitter on the team and find his best stretch last year. Here's a 23 AB stretch in June from Counsell:

 

.348/.444/.522/.966

 

If he had done that to start the season, there would probably have been a thread on bf.net about the Brewers needing to find more playing time for him. But because it happened in June, I'm not sure if anyone even noticed (I didn't remember it at least).

 

I'm as happy as anyone else that Kapler is crushing the ball so far this year. I just think it's important to keep things in perspective and realize that you shouldn't start changing your plans based on a great 26 AB's

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

We are playing with House money here with Kapler. All he has to do is stay hot for 13 more games and he did his job.

[endaround]

rluzinski wrote:

Heck, Let me pick the worst hitter on the team and find his best stretch last year. Here's a 23 AB stretch in June from Counsell:

 

.348/.444/.522/.966

 

If he had done that to start the season, there would probably have been a thread on bf.net about the Brewers needing to find more playing time for him. But because it happened in June, I'm not sure if anyone even noticed (I didn't remember it at least).

 

I'm as happy as anyone else that Kapler is crushing the ball so far this year. I just think it's important to keep things in perspective and realize that you shouldn't start changing your plans based on a great 26 AB's

Even more striking? In 2005 as Arizona's everday SS Counsell after two full months on May 31st was hitting .318/.431/.445. He ended 2005 at .256/.350/.375

 

[rluzinski]

I should have mentioned this before but Mench from last year is even a better example of what not to do. Mench's first 42 AB last year:

 

.405/.419/.595/1.014

 

Bat is hot! Gotta get him in the lineup! Screw the platoon! Yost took the bait, giving him the majority of the starts over the next couple of weeks. Here's what he did (48 AB):

 

.208/.204/.313/.517

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

that 517 OPS is still better than Gross's 300 OPS.

[tigerbrew]

I think Kapler should start ahead of Gross in Cards series, even though Cards starters are all righties.

 

I think the Brewers should ride the hot hand and Kapler is on fire.

[rluzinski]

It's pretty simple to look back and see how well the average batter performs after an expectantly great week or two of performance. It shouldn't surprise anyone that it already has been looked at. "The Book" found that hot players performed very close to their normal performance levels (they outperformed their normal expected performance but it was pretty marginal). Other studies, using slightly different methodologies, got similar results. If you use the "hot hand" theory to justify playing a normally platooned player against same handed pitchers, on average, they will actually perform worse than normal! Mench last year was an excellent example of that playing itself out.

 

Admittedly, Kapler doesn't have very many ABs the last few years, so it's difficult to pin down exactly what is "normal" for him. What we do know is that he has a career batting line of .272/.332/.424/.756 in 2451 ABs and his on the wrong side of 30. It's hard expecting even that out of him anymore.

[Baldkin]

Skip has been awesome thus far this year.... but that doesn't mean I'm ready to think he can 1) hit righties better than Gross, and 2) hit better than any of our other OF's.

 

I'm enjoying it. I hope Ned doesn't ruin it by playing him too much.

[MessiahRp]

As a Sox fan (who also likes the Brewers) I was happy the Crew signed Kapler. I figured at the minimum he'd be a very useful 4th or 5th OF because he's a steady hitter, good pinch runner and good fielder. He's not going to light the world on fire but he's a very valuable piece to have in a pinch hit or pinch run situation, or as we're seeing now, in an injury replacement situation.

 

The interesting thing to me is how him being here and performing up to his capabilities makes Gross and Gwynn look like they belong even further down the depth chart totem pole. Gwynn is good for defensive reasons or pinch running but I'm not convinced he'll do much more for you. Gross while he has some power and hasn't had a lot of ABs doesn't seem to be a difference maker yet.

 

Kapler's sort of taken ABs from both of them as he continues to perform and earn Yost's confidence. When Cameron comes back you can bet Kapler gets those spot starts or pinch ABs that they might have gotten before. And frankly I'm not sure that's a bad thing at all.

 

Rp

[logan82]

MessiahRp24 wrote:

Kapler's sort of taken ABs from both of them as he continues to perform and earn Yost's confidence. When Cameron comes back you can bet Kapler gets those spot starts or pinch ABs that they might have gotten before. And frankly I'm not sure that's a bad thing at all.

I don't think he has taken at bats from Gross or Gwynn yet. He has taken some from Dillon maybe. Until CF is no longer a platoon, he is playing when he should and no more.

[sheethead]

From August 16th to September 8th last year, Gross played in 21 games, had 64 PAs, and his line was .333/.406/.614. It may not be the same numbers-wise that Kapler is doing right now, but it was over a longer stretch than I personally expect Kapler to do it.

 

Edit: You beat me endaround, but it's even more telling to show two different times when Gross went on hot stretches.

I'm sorry, but what I meant was that Gross has never been this hot (.423/.448/.962/1.410), ever.

[sheethead]

Without Gabe Kapler, subtract at least 3 wins from the Brewers record thus far. As for the plan... it is to keep plugging until Cameron is back. Gabe Kapler is the best plug at this moment. I would give him the starts in St. Louis. Couldn't be much worse that what Gross has to offer.

[Fatter than Joey]

There is no doubt that Gabe Kapler has made the most of his opportunities, and he should get a cookie for that. I would be totally cool with Kapler+Gross as our #4,#5 OFs and first PHers (depending on the pitcher) off the bench -- It sucks to have to run Counsell out to face LHers, but having Kapler+Gross gives us some pop off of the bench regardless of the pitcher.

 

As others have pointed out, he is not likely to sustain this sort of hitting, but he has certainly kept the team together until Cameron gets back. He sort of reminds me of Kyle Lohse who is doing a great job so far in St. Louis. holding places for Carpenter and Mulder. He certainly isn't going to keep producing like he currently is, but the Cardinal fans have to be excited that they are 2-1 in his first three starts.

[DrWood]

I wouldn't immediately discredit Lohse. Duncan has done wonders with pitchers who previously underperformed their "stuff".

[Fatter than Joey]

I wouldn't immediately discredit Lohse.

 

I'm not -- just like Kapler batting over .400, I am not going to hold my breath thinking that Lohse is going to keep his ERA around 1.04. All I am saying is that the Cardinal fans, have to be excited about getting a boost from a guy like Lohse. I have to think Cardinal fans were not terribly excited about Lohse opening the season for them, but he has pitched (so far) like a front end rotation guy. Mulder will be back soon (he is rehabbing in single A) and then Lohse will get pushed down in the rotation, much like Kapler will when Cameron returns.

 

So far the $4.25M the Cards spent on Lohse has been well worth it, if he can keep his team's head above water until the big guns get healthy

[rluzinski]

I'm sorry, but what I meant was that Gross has never been this hot (.423/.448/.962/1.410), ever.

 

Gross's first 26 AB in 2006:

 

.385/.448/.923/1.371

 

Gross has had other great stretches as well, just like many other mediocre players at some point in their career. While it's kind of fun to look for a player's best streaks, I really don't see the utility in it. It just means a guy randomly bunched his hits up for a small period of time.

 

I'd also like to point out that Kendall got off to just as good a start as Kapler this year:

 

.538/.567/.731/1.298 (26 AB)

 

Just as the calls to take more advantage of his hot bat by to batting him 2nd were gaining speed , he put this up in the Mets series :

 

.091/.167/.091/.258 (11 AB) <-- 1 for 11 with a HBP

 

That's the thing about hot streaks. They are easy to identify while they are ongoing but they tell us little about tomorrow.

[Fatter than Joey]

As a side note: I was really impressed with Kapler's post-game interview -- He was able to answer questions on the fly, and intelligently without resorting to cliches.