Designated Lineup Thread / Latest... Haudricourt: Kendall Batting Ninth is Working (reply #113)

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

With respect to Hardy hitting in front of the pitcher:

I know that conventional wisdom says that he'll see fewer pitches to hit. Hitting in front of the pitcher is therefore supposed to result in more walks, but a lower AVG (and therefore not necessarily higher OBP) and certainly a lower SLG. This makes all the intuitive sense in the world. But to my knowledge, no one ever bothered to check if it was true until Jeff Sackmann wrote this article for the Harball Times a few weeks ago:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-benefit-of-batting-eighth/

Almost all findings are the opposite of what you'd expect. In 2007, hitters with 20 or more PA in front of the pitcher walked slightly less often than they did elsewhere in the lineup, but got a 37 point AVG boost and a 61 point SLG boost. They did see a slightly lower percentage of strikes, but their P/PA actually dropped in the 8 spot. As Sackmann notes at the end of the article, it would probably take a multi-year study (with higher PA cutoffs) for us to be absolutely certain that the old saw about hitting in front of the pitcher is a complete crock, but ever since I've read this, I sigh heavily every time Schroeder talks about what a difficult job it is. Confirmation bias, ladies and gentlemen, is a harsh mistress.

[Gobias Industries]

Interesting stuff Brawndo.

 

I just find it funny that Hardy has publicly came out and said he doesn't like hitting in the 7 hole, but last year he publicly announced he preferred hitting in the 8 hole. You'd hope he understands that it's essentially the same exact thing.

 

Up until my cable went out on Friday (Screw you Time Warner Milwaukee) I have been charting first pitch strikes/balls, swinging/taking along with the results of the at-bat. Hardy is seeing plenty of pitches to hit, a majority being fastballs early in the count.

 

I can count the number of hard hit balls he's had this year on one hand, and it has nothing to do with not seeing good pitches to hit.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Hardy is seeing plenty of pitches to hit, a majority being fastballs early in the count.

 

He led the entire NL last year in percentage of first pitches taken, and has been among the league leaders his entire career. Now, I vastly prefer someone who takes all of them to someone who swings at all of them, but I think we can all see that pitchers are coming right after Hardy early in the count. The one HR he has hit was a first pitch fastball middle in. I was really hoping that would encourage him to look for more first pitch fastballs to drive. It wouldn't take too many extra base hits before pitchers started aiming for the corners against him on the first pitch again, and then it makes sense to take nearly all the first pitches, because getting ahead 1-0 is awesome.

 

As is, he's getting himself into way too many 0-1 counts, as pitchers groove fastballs right down the middle on the first pitch and he refuses to make them pay. I hope he gets this figured out soon because he's one of the only hitters in the lineup who can actually tell the difference between a strike and a ball with any regularity.

[Gobias Industries]

I know it's A LOT easier said than done, but it's just so frustrating to see probably the best two fastball hitters on the team (Hardy and Weeks) take the first pitch fastball right down the middle with such regularity.

 

When they work the count in their favor, say 2-0, the bat is quite often glued to their shoulder as the fastball is taken for a strike.

[jazzytrav]

I wonder if there isn't something going on where pitchers don't want to allow the offense to "clear the pitcher." You would think that the guy batting before the pitcher woudn't see many pitches because the pitcher is an easier out. But in recent years, I almost thought pitchers were going after that hitter because they wanted to get that out and give themselves an easy first out the next inning. I actually agree with that strategy, assuming it's not a situation with a lot of runners on or something like that. If there's two outs, go after the guy before the pitcher.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The way this entire team is hitting, the lineup thread can probably take a few weeks off - it doesn't matter who's hitting in front of and behind whom, nobody's doing much of anything right now.

[1992casey]

I pretty much agree, Fear the Chorizo. We're coming up on the time of year (mid-May) where I usually think there's enough of a sample to do some lineup tinkering, but with so many players not hitting, where the heck would you go with it? Until some guys start to hit, the status quo would seem to be as good as any of the alternatives.

[Glennron]

I wouldn't mind seeing Hart getting moved up to leadoff and Weeks down to 5 or 6. But like others have said, will it even make a difference? Hart's really the only player you could say that is hitting pretty well. He did seem to be more patient in the leadoff spot last year than he does hitting 5th, maybe if he can get on and steal some bases it'll provide a spark? Gawd is this frustrating.

[brewerinvegas]

didn't it take about 10 games to figure out the Braun - Fielder flip...

I'd just like to point out that the Brewers were 7-4 with Fielder/Braun, and are 9-14 with Braun/Fielder. Maybe that was something that should be revisited. No. Wait. That would be admitting that Yost had the idea correct at the beginning of the season in regards to the lineup. That can't be allowed to happen. Because Yost is dumber than a monkey, right?

[1992casey]

From large samples, it would be fair to glean that the Braun-Fielder thing really doesn't matter. With Prince being the only lefty starter, there really isn't a lot restricting Ned in making that choice. If it's a tie, there's no big reason not to go with player preference.

 

Having said that, I do prefer Prince at cleanup, but it's not because I think these guys will hit better under the current arrangement. Rather, since the the cleanup hitter leads off more innings than anyone other than the leadoff hitter, I think Prince's superior ability to take a walk will come in handy.

[Hate those Rodents]

For next year, or maybe even this year later (unlikely), I'd love to see this lineup

1 Hart CF
2 Gamel 3B
3 Braun LF
4 Fielder 1B
5 LaPorta RF
6 Hardy SS
7 Kendall C
8 Weeks 2B
9 Pitcher P

I'd have Gwynn as the 4th OF and get him around 300 AB's. I'd talk Hall into being a supersub again and still getting about 400 AB's. Keep in mind he might have underwhelming numbers this year to where he proves to be a platoon player. Instead of platooning, he could likely get more PT and AB's as a supersub. But these would be my two main bench guys. It'd be great to not have to add ANYTHING with positional players so that Doug can focus solely on adding pitching in the off-season. The only possible change I'd consider is dealing one of Weeks/Hardy If 1) they prove to have enough value to get the type of pitcher we need and 2) Escobar appears ready to handle an everyday job. There's also a slight chance Kendall really cools off, in which case we can always look to upgrade that position. But maybe Salome is that guy sooner than later anyway, and it's looking like Kendall is a keeper for another year so this isn't really a concern.

Edited to add... Oh, and I certainly hope that we can do what basically every other manager does and bat the pitcher 9th next year (or still this year please).

[BrewCrewForever]

1 Hart CF

2 Gamel 3B

3 Braun LF

4 Fielder 1B

5 LaPorta RF

6 Hardy SS

7 Kendall C

8 Weeks 2B

9 Pitcher P

 

I do kind of like that lineup. Maybe Weeks #6, Hardy #7 and Kendall 8th though. But I am quite excited for Gamel and LaPorta. I know we won't trade LaPorta but I hope they don't trade Gamel for some pitching.

 

I just want to add I like this for 2009, not now or at anytime this season.

[ewizabeff]

Gamel and LaPorta are only in AA. Granted, they're tearing it up down there, but I may be one of the few people that doesn't want to see them called up yet. Gamel, especially, needs to work on his defense. I think we can do good things with the guys we've got this year, and keep grooming Gamel & LaPorta in the minors.

 

I think Bill Hall has been playing a pretty stellar 3rd base...he just needs to get in a groove with his bat. The home runs are great, but I just want to see the guy on base.

 

Final thought: I'm liking Kendall in the 9th spot. A lot.

[splitterpfj]

I'd love to see your 1-5 happen, the potential there is tremendous.

 

Two things that struck me while reading your post:

 

1. Would you really ask Bill Hall to move again, and if you did, don't you think he'd come unglued?

 

2. Nobody's missing, you've got our current lineup, minus Cameron, with Hall and Gwynn still on the bench. If the goal is to free Doug M to pursue pitching, wouldn't we have to part with some players from that lineup in a trade?

[Hate those Rodents]

splitter - On Hall, I am just kind of seeing him having his second consecutive year with underwhelming offensive numbers. If this actually plays out all year, I am not certain he's a bonafide starter on a good/playoff caliber team. I do still think he's very valuable to any team. We will likely let Counsell walk in the off season in my opinion. Therefore, Hall could give us tremendous roster flexibility if he was our only backup at 2B/SS/3B and again, I'd give him plenty of PT/AB's to make him sort of like a starter. How would he take it? I don't know. That's a great question. I will say, about 50% of the players in the game would hopefully do whatever is best for the team. To this point, Hall has always done that for us. Now, if he does not accept this well, maybe he's something we peddle for a pitcher.

 

On keeping my lineup above and improving only the pitching: I guess I was mainly thinking of adding 2-3 free agents. Again, we could deal Weeks/Hardy if we can get enough back where it works out value wise provided Escobar is ready to play very good defensively and be at least a decent 7,8, or 9 hitter. If we can resign Sheets and get Gallardo back healthy, I don't see any reason why we'd need to trade one of our studs/stud prospects (Namely the top five in my lineup) since really we'd be looking for a #3 starter at best. But you are right in that if we keep the aforementioned intact, trading for quality pitching becomes a chore, as we'd have no real prospects to deal. Maybe Gillepsie has a great year and is someone that a team is high on. But maybe trading Weeks or Hardy, Hall, and Gwynn is something we'd have to look into in separate deals for pitching.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think it's safe to say Cameron is not working out in the 2 spot and JJ Hardy is just a better hitter at #2. We need this lineup, and we need it now:

 

Hart

Hardy

Braun

Prince

Cameron

Weeks

Hall

Pitcher

Kendall

[TooLiveBrew]

Didn't you talk about how batting Kendall 9th is crap? I think batting Hardy 2nd is not a good idea, and especially right now. I love Hart 5th, otherwise 2nd. With the way this team is structured, we're couting on Weeks & Cameron coming around. I'm not ready to cut ties there, so moving them around doesn't matter to much to me. I could see batting Cam 6th, but no one that I'd want hitting 2nd, since Hart behind Fielder makes too much sense imo.

[logan82]

I don't think it is safe to make any assumptions about Cameron.

[1992casey]

The Cameron sample is tiny. People should be sticking to whatever opinion they had about him before the season started.

[gbpacker40]

Id try these lineups...

 

1. Kendall - He has proven in the past he can leadoff effectively

2. Hardy - Will get better pitches in the 2 hole, especially with whats behind him

3. Weeks - Ill probably get the most junk for this one, but I really would just like to see how this would work for a little bit, I think it could help Weeks out tremendously and I believe he has the ability to be a good 3 hitter

4. Braun - Fielder would work here too, but I like Braun in front of Fielder

5. Fielder - He will still have plenty chances to get his at bats and knock in runs

6. Cameron - no real reason why him here other than I dont want to see him leadoff after the pitcher and IMO doesnt have the ability to take enough pitches in the 7 spot

7. Hart - Can take pitches and will hit for decent average at any spot in the lineup

8. Pitcher - well because

9. Hall - Takes some pressure off him and adds a little power at the 9 spot

 

or

 

1. Kendall - same as above

2. Hardy - same as above

3. Braun - because its working

4. Fielder - prototypical spot for him

5. Cameron - because he has proven to be a guy that can knock in 70-90 runs consistently

6. Hall - no real reason

7. Hart - same as above

8. Throwing the ball guy - because he will only get 2-3 ab before he is ph for, unless its our staff lately then he may only get 1

9. Weeks - like someone else said, give the guy a break and get him out of 1....9 would still be a theoritical leadoff considering the outs the pitcher gets, but without the pressure of being the main table setter

 

OR

 

1. Hart - Hes capable

2. Hardy - same as above

3. Braun - same as above

4 Fielder - same as above

5. Cameron - same as above

6. Hall - blah

7. Kendall - because he has the ability to take walks when being "pitched" around

8. Sheets - http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

9 Weeks - again , as above

 

This is fun....

[Postseason2006]

What is the run per game difference compared to last year?

[endaround]

JJ Hardy is just a better hitter at #2.

Based on what? He hit better at #8 last year than #2. He's hit better at #7 this year than at #2. He's just not a good hitter and getting him more PAs isn't a good idea.

 

[LUKE232323]

This is what I want next season:

 

Hart (CF)

Hardy (SS)

Braun (LF)

Fielder (1B)

LaPorta (RF)

Weeks (2B)

Hall (3B)

P

Kendall ©

 

Hart has just as much speed as Weeks but is going to give you a .350 OBP. Hardy hitting after Hart provides more hit and run opportunities because he is one of our better contact guys, on top of the fact that he'll be hitting in front of Braun so he should see a good amount of fastballs.

[Patrick425]

The Cameron sample is tiny. People should be sticking to whatever opinion they had about him before the season started.

My opinion of him before the season started was that he was a 35 year old on the downside of his career and that his lack of offensive production will cancel any defensive help he brings to the team. I'm going to stick by that.

[jhart05]

First, it's hard to make up a lineup for this team when there are so many holes up and down the order right now.

 

 

This is not a permanent fix by any means, and I don't think changing the lineup around really does anything, but at this point what can it hurt. Try anything to get some new blood in the lineup. Right? So how about trying this for a week or so?

 

 

vs. RHP:

 

 

1. Counsell 2B
2. Braun LF
3. Fielder 1B
4. Hart RF
5. Branyan/Nelson 3B
6. Hardy SS
7. Gwynn/Iribarren CF
8. Pitcher
9. Kendall C

 

 

Sit Weeks, Cameron, and Hall against RHP for awhile, and put in the left-handed bats.

The Gwynn/Iribarren deal means, "insert your favorite here". Some like Gwynn, some don't. Those that don't, I gave you a non-Gwynn option.

Same thing with the Branyan/Nelson deal. Pick your favorite.

I really like Hart in a run-producing role, over a set-up role.

I know Counsell isn't going to be a popular choice. He doesn't have the speed you'd like, he doesn't do this, he doesn't do that, but I don't see a lot of options. I suppose you could switch 1 and 7 around, but I choose to go with the veteran.

 

 

 

 

vs. LHP:

 

 

1. Weeks 2B
2. Hardy SS
3. Braun LF
4. Fielder 1B
5. Hart RF
6. Hall 3B
7. Cameron CF
8. Pitcher
9. Kendall C

 

 

Nothing much different here as it turns out, but hitting against LHP doesn't seem to be a problem anyway. So, all I did was to flip Hardy and Cameron around. I do not think Hardy should be batting up there long-term. Maybe it was just the HR yesterday, but he seems to be doing OK lately.

Weeks is the closest thing they have to a leadoff hitter and again, I like Hart in a run-producing role, over a set-up role.

Putting Kendall leadoff or in the 2 spot is a lot to ask of a 34-year old catcher, whom you need to play a lot of games for you. At least I think so.

I hate batting Hall and Cameron together because I envision a lot of back-to-back strikeouts, but where else can you put them?

 

 

Man, it all makes me want to puke. With so many guys not producing up to their career numbers it's really, really difficult to find a lineup that works.