Designated Lineup Thread / Latest... Haudricourt: Kendall Batting Ninth is Working (reply #113)

[jeffy]

"Kendall has performed well in the nine-spot this season, batting .314 with eight doubles in 20 games. It should be noted that he has not batted above .300 since 2004, so perhaps batting ninth has rejuvenated the 33-year-old backstop," noted Kendrena.

 

(That's from the blog entry) Or, Kendrena, he's playing over his head. That's so clearly the more obvious answer imo. And that leads into...

 

 

why not just have Kendall lead off and start the game with that order?

 

It means you give the highest number of PA to your worst hitter. 'Worst' is a relative term, but in terms of talent when discussing our 'regular' 8, Kendall is low-man in the pecking order. His total lack of power is the reason. If Jason can prove that his .300-ish BA is sustainable, then the discussion is different imo... batting him leadoff would make some sense, then.

 

It may or may not be a good idea to bat Kendall ninth, but this "analysis" that it is working would seem to be flawed, if they did not consider that maybe Kendall has just been lucky so far. In addition, comparing results from last year's order of Estrada-pitcher to this year's pitcher-Kendall would seem to be of little value as there are too many variables.

 

For instance the increase in the number of succesful bunts by pitchers...might the pitcher not following Estrada have something to do with that? Might there have been an increase even if Kendall was 8th? Both JJ and Kendall single and walk more often then Estrada and probably hit into more fielders choices and fewer double plays. So the pitcher is likely to bat with a runner on first more often when following either of them than Estrada. Then even if Estrada is on 1st, how likely is a force at second on a bunt attempt?

[TooLiveBrew]

Good points, jeffyscott. As for your final question, I'm almost positive that happened to Estrada last season more than just once or twice.

 

It is really hard to compare what are two almost entirely different situations/scenarios. And I agree that the way the article Hauricourt cited evaluates completely ignores the fact that Kendall is most likely due to regress this season.

 

However, I think I can confidently say that I recognize the value the 'Pitcher 8th' practice provides. When this was first proposed, I nearly immediately discounted it as providing anything more than just equal value to batting the P 9th. Now that we're into the season & have been able to watch the way Ned's bottom of the lineup works in actual games, I recognize its merit immediately.

 

Yes, there have been & will continue to be instances where we have the pitcher batting after Hardy & perhaps others have gotten on base. But there have already been numerous instances where you can clearly see the upside of the strategy. Kendall using his on-base ability ahead of Weeks (who provides even better OBP & also some serious HR/XBH pop) imo is going to generate a lot more scoring chances than ensuring your 8th-best hitter comes up behind Hall & Hardy.

 

I think the sequencing of hitters 9-7 so far has provided much better results than sequencing them 1-8. I'm willing to admit that my perception could be trumped by reality, as I know not having Hart/Braun/Fielder hitting #2 shoots the entire 'P 8th' philosophy in the foot, to a certain extent.

[adambr2]

What about this?

 

1: Weeks

2: Hart

3: Braun

4: Prince

5: Hall

6: Hardy

7: Cameron

8: Pitcher

9: Kendall

 

You've got Hart in the 2 hole who will generally put the ball in play and will be a very tough guy to double up. Hall is a great spot in the lineup for a power hitter and can maximize his RBI opportunities. Cameron's plate patience is put to good use batting in front of the pitcher, who can always bunt Cameron over for Kendall anytime Cameron gets on.

 

So, tell me where my thinking is flawed.

[brewtank34]

A line-up shake up is in order...here's my ideal line-up.

 

Hart

Braun

Fielder

Cameron

Hall

Weeks

Hardy

Kendell

P

 

Enough of this Pitcher in the 8th spot....It's not working.

 

Hart is a great option as lead off and Braun and Fielder in every first inning is ideal. Cameron is good protection for Fielder... Having Weeks Hardy and Kendell in the bottom of the line-up can also generate some RBI opp's for Hart and Braun.

[aracko]

Here is my ideal lineup -

 

I expect people to hate it.

 

1. Cameron

2. Braun

3. Weeks

4. Fielder

5. Hall

6. Hart

7. Hardy

8. Pitcher

9. Kendall

 

I want to see Weeks put into a situation where he can see more fastballs and start producing runs. The lineup needs a shake.

[TooLiveBrew]

Enough of this Pitcher in the 8th spot....It's not working.

 

What's your explanation? I disagree completely.

[logan82]

aracko wrote:

I want to see Weeks put into a situation where he can see more fastballs and start producing runs. The lineup needs a shake.

The leadoff spot actually sees more fastballs than ony other spot in the order. About one extra fastball every 4 days.

[Gobias Industries]

The leadoff spot actually sees more fastballs than ony other spot in the order. About one extra fastball every 4 days.

Looks like it pretty much doesn't make a difference. Weeks is watching a lot of fastballs go by, so it's not like it really matters. A majority of his extra base hits have come off of off-speed pitches this year.

 

If they switched things up, I'd like to see:

 

Corey Hart

Prince Fielder

Rickie Weeks

Ryan Braun

Mike Cameron

Bill Hall

JJ Hardy

Pitcher

Jason Kendall

 

Yost would never do this though. He would never put his two best hitters anywhere other than the 3 and 4 hole.

[logan82]

Gobias Industries wrote:

Looks like it pretty much doesn't make a difference.

Yost would never do this though. He would never put his two best hitters anywhere other than the 3 and 4 hole.

No it really doesn't make a difference as far as fastballs are concerned. I don't have the link, but I am sure it is around here somewhere. It comes out every time Soriano talks about batting leadoff and seeing more fastballs.

 

There was brief talk of Braun batting 2nd and Fielder 4th early in spring training.

[Gobias Industries]

There was brief talk of Braun batting 2nd and Fielder 4th early in spring training.

I remember seeing that. I'd be for that as well, though Fielder makes a lot more sense 2nd if Hart or Weeks is leading off, as he's a lot more patient; allowing either to steal.

[TooLiveBrew]

I believe it was the Astros color guy (who I actually found quite good in the small sample of 2-3 games) that mentioned how the effect of lineup changes/slotting just doesn't seem to translate much -- if at all -- on the field. He was talking about this in the context of a discussion on Braun/Fielder & their slot in the lineup. It was refreshing to hear.

 

Also, he very mockingly booed along with Astros fans when they booed a pickoff move by a Brewers P to 1B. That was my favorite part about the guy! He went on to talk about how silly booing a pickoff move is.

[trwi7]

Also, he very mockingly booed along with Astros fans when they booed a pickoff move by a Brewers P to 1B. That was my favorite part about the guy! He went on to talk about how silly booing a pickoff move is.

 

That guy is an idiot. He should want the Brewers to not pay attention so the Astros can steal bases all day!

[brewtank34]

ToLiveBrew: I wish I had actual data to back up my statement that the P in the 8th spot isn't working, but I don't.....it's just an overall opinion that I've had over the last month that there's been may more occurances that the 8th spot is up w/RBI situation written all over it, and just thinking to myself, "man, I wish we had Kendell up right now."

 

It was a decent trial, I just don't feel it necessary to continue....I hope to gather some actual data in the upcoming days.

[TooLiveBrew]

Please do. By everything I've seen/encountered, batting Kendall 9th has been working perfectly (or nearly). Be sure if you do compile some data to include how much batting Kendall 9th has helped the 1-4/5 hitters, instead of just picking out situations in which (in your opinion and/or in reality http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) not having Kendall at #8 was detrimental. Perhaps that goes without saying, though.

[tristarscoop]

I'd love to see some data on this because I think you can't accurately get a feel for this if you're involved. I mean, if you like the pitcher 8th, you will remember all the times it worked out for us. If you like the pitcher 9th, you'll remember all the times it didn't. It's a total "feel" for the situation and so it's hard to objectively look at what's happened over the 6 weeks and compare them. Trust me, I've tried.

[logan82]

ToLiveBrew: I wish I had actual data to back up my statement that the P in the 8th spot isn't working, but I don't.....it's just an overall opinion that I've had over the last month that there's been may more occurances that the 8th spot is up w/RBI situation written all over it, and just thinking to myself, "man, I wish we had Kendell up right now."

 

It was a decent trial, I just don't feel it necessary to continue....I hope to gather some actual data in the upcoming days.

I agree with TLB. Please present this data. The last data we had showed that it was working pretty well. Everything I have read says it is a good idea. To be honest I think it is a wash at worst and at best will add very little.

[WV Brew]

I'd like to see an analysis of Hardy at 8th/7th this year vs. Hardy in other positions. He has expressed his opinion that he doesn't like batting there and from what I've seen, I have to concur. This is a specialized job that might need a more veteran player such as Kendall.

[lukevan]

Didn't Hardy's slump end last season when he was moved to the slot just ahead of the pitcher?

[WV Brew]

Hardy at 2 pos: .272 .318 .450 .768 108 OPS+

at 8 pos: .258 .331 .388 .719 97 OPS+

 

By comparing with him in the 8 position, you largely ignore this year's poor performance and concentrate on the position effect alone. So he gets on base more at the 8 spot which should not be surprising since teams will pitch around him some but you reduce a lot of his power, which also doesn't surprise me. This alone pretty much convinces me that the pitcher at 8 strategy is poor if Hardy is going to be hit there.

[Weirdos19]

Here's my ideal lineup:

 

1.Hart- best baserunner on the team should bat ahead of best hitters

2.Hall- Will see good pitches with Hart on first and Braun and Prince behind him. Needs to go to right field more, perfect spot for him even with K's.

3.Braun

4. Fielder

5. Cameron- Need somebody behind Prince that can drive the ball.

6. Hardy- Swinging too much to hit in front of the pitcher

7. Kendall- Will take walks to get lineup through pitchers spot

8. Pitcher-

9. Weeks- Second leadoff man. Take a little pressure off the guy.

[TauPentaRei]

hanley ramirez appeared in the 3-hole last night due to Willingham's injury. one of the two monotone guys claimed that the Marlins skipper is committing to the new look for 10 games.

 

didn't it take about 10 games to figure out the Braun - Fielder flip...

 

and then another 10 games to get the Hart - Hall order "correct"...

 

after 10 more games i am ready for the Hart - Weeks juggle.

 

CH, MC, RB, PF, RW, BH, JJH, P, JK

[TooLiveBrew]

This alone pretty much convinces me that the pitcher at 8 strategy is poor if Hardy is going to be hit there.

 

But you haven't checked to see what batting Kendall 9th has added. You can't arrive at any sort of conclusion without analyzing both sides of the coin.

[WV Brew]

But you haven't checked to see what batting Kendall 9th has added. You can't arrive at any sort of conclusion without analyzing both sides of the coin.

 

True. Mainly because I don't believe it "adds" much if anything.

[Gobias Industries]

Didn't they say it would probably add about 20 - 25 runs by the end of the year? And we are what, 20% into the season?

 

It seems like it's pretty pointless to argue whether or not it's "working" when you're probably gonna have to reserve that judgement for a whole season sample size.

[TooLiveBrew]

True. Mainly because I don't believe it "adds" much if anything.

 

Then why bother researching anything about this at all? You already 'know' the answer.

 

 

It seems like it's pretty pointless to argue whether or not it's "working" when you're probably gonna have to reserve that judgement for a whole season sample size.

 

It'd be hard to figure one way or another until we're much farther into the season, if not all the way into Sept. Great point.