Chris Young Signs 6 Year Deal with ARZ for $31M

[homer]

Young had a really good walk rate all through his minor league career (his last three seasons his OBP averaged 97 points higher than his BA). I would think he'll improve on that as his pro career progresses.

[Ennder]

Id rather pay Braun 5 million a year over the next 6 years than 385k, 460k, 675k, 9mil, 12 mil, 15 mil.

I totally agree. Tampa Bay, a team with far less revenue than the Brewers, did essentially this several years ago with Carl Crawford and not only did they keep a premier player at a below market rate through most of his prime years, it also made him much more attractive as a trade target because more teams could afford to get in the bidding.

 

Braun is no fluke. Talent like that doesn't come around that often.

 

They also did it with Baldelli and that didn't work out as well... Neither did Blalock for the Rangers.

 

I'm not against doing it at all but it most certainly is risky.

[TooLiveBrew]

Tampa Bay, a team with far less revenue than the Brewers, did essentially this several years ago with Carl Crawford and not only did they keep a premier player at a below market rate through most of his prime years

 

But to use Braun as the example is totally irrelevant. He's already controlled at well below what you deem well below market value already, and would be almost no matter what he gets in arbitration. It's just pointless.

[kramnoj]

Tampa Bay, a team with far less revenue than the Brewers, did essentially this several years ago with Carl Crawford and not only did they keep a premier player at a below market rate through most of his prime years

 

But to use Braun as the example is totally irrelevant. He's already controlled at well below what you deem well below market value already, and would be almost no matter what he gets in arbitration. It's just pointless.

 

But how do you know that? Did you know 3 years ago that someone like Howard would get $10 million in his first arbitration year?

 

I think one thing that gets lost a little bit here is the non-monetary value of avoiding arbitration. Arbitration is not fun. The act of demonstrating a player's weaknesses to suppress their value isn't good for team relations. Teams are (and should be) willing to risk spending a few extra million over a contract to avoid that process.

[kramnoj]

These kind of contracts are really going to hamstring small market teams like Milwaukee. If you start piling these up because you've got some good young players, start kissing goodbye to all your veterans.

 

I don't understand your point. Which veterans are we kissing goodbye? If you're talking about Francisco Cordero, I'm okay with that. If you're talking about Ben Sheets, I think it'll be tough to keep him regardless of whether these contracts exist. I don't think these contracts will keep us from signing stopgaps like Kendall or good backups like Counsell.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

To me there are 3 key players in the everyday lineup they need to lock up - Prince, Rickie and Braun. Prince is the franchise...and needs to be locked up now. Rickie next, because the upside is so huge. He really makes the lineup go. Then Braun...but there is little gained in doing it now. For the most part, the rest of the guys are somewhat replaceable. JJ and Corey would be great to extend too, but at some point they do need to be cost conscious. I think the amount it takes with them dictates whether they do it or not. Later in these contracts, some minor leaguers should begin to percolate up into Milwaukee...hopefully maintaining their production at a much lower cost. To keep this thing going it will take a certain amount of below market production.

[sbrylski]

To me there are 3 key players in the everyday lineup they need to lock up - Prince, Rickie and Braun. Prince is the franchise...and needs to be locked up now. Rickie next, because the upside is so huge. He really makes the lineup go. Then Braun...but there is little gained in doing it now. For the most part, the rest of the guys are somewhat replaceable. JJ and Corey would be great to extend too, but at some point they do need to be cost conscious.

 

If we can retain Prince through age 30-32 without severely handicapping our payroll, I am all for it, so I agree with that. However, the #2 positional player on my lock up list would actually be whoever takes over the CF job next season, most likely Hart.

 

Price has already shown he is special no matter where he is playing, so relative positional value can be disregarded a bit. But other than that, I don't think we know quite enough about Braun yet, we have a replacement in place for Hardy, and Weeks still has defensive struggles and has yet to show he's anything more than above average with the bat. The most sure thing at a premium position would seem to be Hart in CF.

[endaround]

Hart and Villaneuva are the only player on the Brewers who aren't millionaires yet by my count. (Its hard to judge Dillon). Hart could be the best one to target because of the fact is he doesn't have that huge signing bonus in the bank (not to say he's poor or anything)

[TooLiveBrew]

Did you know 3 years ago that someone like Howard would get $10 million in his first arbitration year?

 

I think it was pretty plausible that it'd happen. I certainly wasn't shocked, but no I didn't know what he'd get. If you wait a year or two and then do a deal with Ryan to buy out a year or two of FA, then the deal imo makes sense. To do it now as mostly a feel-good move doesn't imo.

 

I think one thing that gets lost a little bit here is the non-monetary value of avoiding arbitration. Arbitration is not fun. The act of demonstrating a player's weaknesses to suppress their value isn't good for team relations. Teams are (and should be) willing to risk spending a few extra million over a contract to avoid that process.

 

Doug Melvin has a stellar track record so far of avoiding arbitration hearings & going year-by-year with our players. I don't see why his plans would change all that much, unless you're getting a year or two of FA seasons bought out.