Chris Young Signs 6 Year Deal with ARZ for $31M

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3334498

 

Apparently Arizona offered essentially the same contract that the Rockies did this offseason to Troy Tulowitzki. This is really locking in the market for Ryan Braun should we decide to extend him in the coming months. I know MA has made an offer to Ryan, and i'm guessing its pretty close to these two deals.

 

I guess teams are gambling after only one "breakout year", but as has been alluded to in other threads, its all about sharing risk. If a player hits .280 with 40+ HR and 100 RBI, they might make a jump to $10M/per by year three, but that is a big if. $5M per sounds about right, with an option for a free agent year.

 

Hell, if I was MA/DM, this is exactly the contract that i'd offer Weeks, Hart, Hardy, and Braun. $20M for the foursome will be an absolute steal in a few years, and i'm sure most, if not all of them would take the offer (not sure how long Weeks is signed for since he signed a major league deal after being drafted).

 

Noticeably, i haven't listed Fielder, who is unlikely to sign any deal anyways, so i'm content to pay him $10M per the next two years, and then trade him for the mothership of prospects so we can keep 2008 Cy Young Winner Ben Sheets

[brewtank34]

Braun should be looking at 6 years 33 mil

[PlayerHader]

Yep something like that should get done NOW.

 

I do like the idea of having those 4 guys locked up for around 20M for a while. I agree with your Prince prediction as well. Not excited about it, but that's how it is. Hopefully DM gets the right prospects.

[TooLiveBrew]

These contracts just all scream "unnecessary risk" to me. The funny thing about the Braun situation is that he is locked in -- right now through 2013! Why is it that people gloss over this? Coughing up an extra $X million dollars to me and risk overpaying severely for an injured player or a guy whose career ends on a freak injury or two just isn't worth one more year.

[kramnoj]

TooLiveBrew, the chances of artbitration costs exploding are much higher than a player with Braun's skills degrading or suffering a career ending injury. The purpose of these deals isn't necessarily to lock in a future year, as it is to get cost certainty in future years.

 

I would be surprised if the Brewers get in the top half of revenue in the near future. For them to seriously compete, they need to take risks, and they need to try to get maximum value when they can.

Edit: I would not offer one of these contracts to Hardy. We already have his replacement in the sytstem. Hardy is a good player, but he hasn't consistently looked like a star. These contracts really only work for star players. And one of the things a small market team has to do is not be sentimental when it comes to player choices. Cut the bait on Hardy too early rather than locking him in too long.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

to me, its isn't about the extra year. its just about not spending 90% of our payroll on those 4 or 5 players when they are in year six. If each of these players continues their current pace, they are ALL going to make $10M+ by their sixth year of free agency. The only way we can afford them all (or most of them), if they are signed long term at a reasonable rate.

 

Reality is, we are going to sink or swim with this group. We've been building this group for over five years, and if they don't pan out, or win us a ring, we're going to have to reload again and start over. Might as well try and lock up the group together for 4-5 years, so we have more than one shot.

[logan82]

I agree with TLB. There is no reason to try getting guys to sign extensions untill their first year of arbitration. Nothing longer than 4 years with a club option for a 5th.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

i might further add.... if we are consistenty over .500 for the next 4-5 years, the next TV contract (for us) is going to be MASSIVE compared to the current contract. Especially if the Bucks continue to struggle, and the Packers slip "post Favre". Yes, its a financial risk, but Mark A might be able to increase the value of the TV contract by 20-25 million PER YEAR if he plays this right, and by around "year 10" of his ownership, the team could have easily doubled in value.

 

We're aren't throwing $$$ at mediocre free agents here. These are players we've controlled for several years. We know their injury history, their potential, and after years of being at the bottom, they are the best of the best from their respective draft classes. If we aren't going to take a chance on THESE players, when are we ever going to find players worth taking a chance on.

 

Assume Year 2011-2012

 

Braun $15M

Hardy $8M

Hart $12M

Weeks $10M

Hall $8M

Yo $12M

Villy/Para $8M each

 

thats $83M for 8 players.... how exactly are we going to afford the rest of the team if we don't make atleast some of the contracts economical? i know that not everyone will pan out, and simply put, we can't keep everyone, but we can definitely keep more players if we do this Arizona/Colorado style, than if we go "fielder style" on all 8-9 of our "premium players"

[TooLiveBrew]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8c/Racheldratchdebbie.jpg/250px-Racheldratchdebbie.jpg

Hey, sorry to be the downer, but I don't know that the TV deal is going to be so big that we can start throwing around all this money. Braun is under contract for just under $500k for 2008, 2009, & 2010. Then you have 3 years of arbitration. I don't see any way that this type of contract provides value -- and that's ignoring the risk (albeit unlikely) of serious injury. What I don't like about an injury concern is that it's basically random. I don't want to gamble $15-20 mil. over the next three years when he's under contract for less than $2 mil. in that timeframe. That's just bad investing imo.

 

Now if you were getting two or even three years of FA seasons, that's a different story. But overpaying that much for only one season? No thank you. Besides if the TV deal is as big as you're hoping, re-signing him shouldn't be a big deal, right?

[kramnoj]

"I don't want to gamble $15-20 mil. over the next three years when he's under contract for less than $2 mil. in that timeframe. That's just bad investing imo."

 

If you are saying what I think you are saying, this is the wrong way to look at this deal. If Braun would a 6 year deal for $30 million, he wouldn't be getting $15 million over the first three years. It would be structured to pay out like arbitration contracts. You are also severely overrating the injury factor. Healthy young position players rarely suffer the injuries you are trying to avoid.

[MickeyDavis]

You can't overlook the p.r. value a move like this would have. Brewer fans are already getting nervous about having to "break up" our team. Even though yes we have Braun locked up anyway this would still send a good message to the fans.

[twobrewers]

i might further add.... if we are consistenty over .500 for the next 4-5 years, the next TV contract (for us) is going to be MASSIVE compared to the current contract.

I think that is a perfect reason to argue against signing players to long term contracts right now.

 

We don't know what our next TV deal is going to be. If/when we know, then we can worry about spending the money.

[endaround]

"I don't want to gamble $15-20 mil. over the next three years when he's under contract for less than $2 mil. in that timeframe. That's just bad investing imo."

 

If you are saying what I think you are saying, this is the wrong way to look at this deal. If Braun would a 6 year deal for $30 million, he wouldn't be getting $15 million over the first three years. It would be structured to pay out like arbitration contracts. You are also severely overrating the injury factor. Healthy young position players rarely suffer the injuries you are trying to avoid.

Actually those injuries happen all the time. Now they aren't usually career ending but they'll kill performance for that season. If in 2010 Braun has a injury like say Hardy had in 2004 and 2006, or Weeks ahd 2006-2007 or Hall had in 2007 where he plays part time but he plays poorly, his arby award won't be as high.

 

Also these al;l assume salary growht. Lasrt time theri was a recession salaries staked out. This recession would be deeper than in 2001.

[kramnoj]

endaround, small injuries like that are part of the planning for any long term contract. They won't factor into preventing a team from offering a deal. Again, baseball teams need to take smart risks to get rewards. A small market team playing it safe looks like the Brewers for most of the last two decades or the Pirates for the same time frame. I would much rather the Brewers swing for home runs and strike out every now and then then aim for singles and not score enough runs.

 

Edit: "Also these al;l assume salary growht. Lasrt time theri was a recession salaries staked out. This recession would be deeper than in 2001."

 

Not all recessions will produce the same results. Teams weren't getting MLBAM money earlier this decade either. And we're not just assuming salary growth, we've already witnessed it with the arbitration award for Howard.

[RyDogg66]

Id rather pay Braun 5 million a year over the next 6 years than 385k, 460k, 675k, 9mil, 12 mil, 15 mil.

[TooLiveBrew]

But the point is you'd end up paying about the same either way, so why risk it? It's just an unneccesary risk. And if you think Braun would even consider a 'hometown discount' with the kind of money he's likely to command, forget about it... just m.o., of course.

 

EDIT: If anything, RyDogg, the way you say you don't want it structured is the way we should want it to be. Why not have him at ridiculously cheap rates when you need the money elsewhere (other arbitration, bullpen, rotation). Once his arbitration years hit, that's when some of the other young guns would have to be dealt off anyway.

[bcf5575]

don't teams usually take out insurance on big contracts like this to help take some of the risk away? how does that work - i assume that just covers serious injuries?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I agree with TLB. At this point I'd wait on Braun. We've got him for 6 years anyway. The only way I do it is to buy out a couple years of FA and extend the Brewers competitive window. The guy to work on is Prince. They should do a 6 year deal with him now. Buy out his 3 years of arby and 2 years of FA now. They can afford a year or two of him as an FA, but he'll be looking for a longer deal by the time he is one. We won't be able to afford that. If things fall apart, he can always be traded in 4-5 years. Having Prince and Braun back to back for 6 years gives us as good of a 3/4 as anyone in baseball. If it works with Prince, start locking in Rickie and JJ...in 1-2 years, then you look to Braun.

[Never Outhustled]

The big difference here is the D-backs bought out a year of Youngs free agency, a 6 year deal to Braun right now wouldn't do that. Obviously, without buying out a year a FA, its pointless.

 

Also, Braun is a far superior player to Young offensively, but Young has some defensive value.

 

Id rather pay Braun 5 million a year over the next 6 years than 385k, 460k, 675k, 9mil, 12 mil, 15 mil.

Me too, because if you calculate inflation to continue on its present rate of rise, the last 3 years you have posted are significantly lower than what we could expect. Those numbers are what we'd expect to pay at present day value for Braun.

 

I do also appreciate TooLiveBrew's angle on this though. Melvin has been routinely burned by regressing productivity from players he's given multi-year deals to. I'd rather pay extra for awesomeness, then get a decent price on mediocrity.

[bball123h2]

Insurance is practically mandatory for every contract, so the injury risk = insurance premium in terms of finances. Given Braun's lack of injury history, that cost would be minimal.

[Tbadder]

These kind of contracts are really going to hamstring small market teams like Milwaukee. If you start piling these up because you've got some good young players, start kissing goodbye to all your veterans.

[endaround]

The problem is insurance usually only pays if the player misses the full season. If you have a Scott Rolen situation where the player plays some but at a really reduced capacity, it doesn't help you.

[1992casey]

A player definitely has to be out a certain amount of time for his team to collect insurance money. Ben Sheets' insurance policy calls for him to have to be on the disabled list for 90 uninterrupted days. With all the time he's spent out of the lineup, he hasn't reached that 90 day threshold yet.

[JohnBriggs12]

Id rather pay Braun 5 million a year over the next 6 years than 385k, 460k, 675k, 9mil, 12 mil, 15 mil.

 

I totally agree. Tampa Bay, a team with far less revenue than the Brewers, did essentially this several years ago with Carl Crawford and not only did they keep a premier player at a below market rate through most of his prime years, it also made him much more attractive as a trade target because more teams could afford to get in the bidding.

 

Braun is no fluke. Talent like that doesn't come around that often.

[DrWood]

Chris Young's contract is stupid. He hasn't proven that he can get on base at a good enough clip. I would only do something like this for a player that I had utmost confidence in, and sitting here at my computer, and not living with these guys for 162 games, I can't have enough confidence in any of them. Melvin and Yost have much more knowledge about these guys than I ever will. I just hope they only do it for the really elite. I have apprehension even about Braun and Fielder. Braun because he really can't field a lick, and I wonder if that suggests he really doesn't put in the effort to that part of his game. Fielder because weight is an issue. I would offer a long-term contract to Fielder, but would wait on Braun until next season.