6/1/07 Marlins (Olsen) @ Brewers (Suppan): 7:05 PM CDT

[crewcrazy]

Turnbow seems to be fine when he doesn't pitch in three straight games. He's at his best when he's pitching every other day or so...at least it seems that way to me.

[litesrn]

Russ, I've come to trust your opinion, along with others here. I'm just curious as to when the turning point comes, the point at which this "experiment" has obviously failed? I realize that other than Gwynn there are few options presently on the roster, but after the almost-collisions last night and his major "oops" tonight, how much evidence is there that this is going to work? Like I asked earlier, isn't almost 60 games enough? It wouldn't be quite as bad if he was hitting in a fashion that resembled last year, and I know that his numbers project really well for the position, but at one point, Scott Kavanaugh was supposed to be the Badgers starting QB - a kid named Bollinger replaced him, and we all know what happened for the next 3 years?

[adambr2]

I like Turnbow so much better when he gets ahead of the hitters.

[1992casey]

If Brian Anderson says "bases loaded clearing double' again, I'll scream. The first time he said it, I thought it was a slip of the tongue. Guess not.

[rluzinski]

If the Brewers hold on for the win and Houston beats the Cards, the Brewers will have a 7.5 game lead in the Central, with 4 teams tied for 2nd place. Of course, 2 of those teams are playing each other tomorrow, so the Brewers will have to win to hold onto that 7.5 game lead.

[adambr2]

Quote:

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I don't have the stats in front of me, but I'd strongly doubt that a run scores from 3rd with 1 out half the time

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.

 

I would like to be able to find a way to look that up, but I just have a real hard time believing that a runner on 3rd scores, with 1 out, less than half the time on average.

[rluzinski]

I don't have the stats in front of me, but I'd strongly doubt that a run scores from 3rd with 1 out half the time.

 

A team scores at least 1 run in that situation about 2/3rds of the time:

 

LINK

[PeaveyFury]

Russ probably knows where to find those stats.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

EDIT: Yep. Well, I stand corrected.

 

Still, a 2/3 chance of scoring the extra run isn't worth the tradeoff of avoiding our shaky bullpen with the starter at less than 80 pitches and cruising.

[rluzinski]

Russ, I've come to trust your opinion, along with others here. I'm just curious as to when the turning point comes, the point at which this "experiment" has obviously failed?

 

I really don't know but 60 games isn't really that long. I think it really depends on the specific player and Melvin is in a much better position to judge when to bail than I am. No stats to help me here!

[adambr2]

Quote:

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Russ, I've come to trust your opinion, along with others here. I'm just curious as to when the turning point comes, the point at which this "experiment" has obviously failed? I realize that other than Gwynn there are few options presently on the roster, but after the almost-collisions last night and his major "oops" tonight, how much evidence is there that this is going to work? Like I asked earlier, isn't almost 60 games enough? It wouldn't be quite as bad if he was hitting in a fashion that resembled last year, and I know that his numbers project really well for the position, but at one point, Scott Kavanaugh was supposed to be the Badgers starting QB - a kid named Bollinger replaced him, and we all know what happened for the next 3 years?

If you want to be liked, shut up and listen!

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I don't get how you can even say that the experiment has "failed". No one thought it would be an overnight success, and it hasn't been. But it has steadily improved. Davey Nelson even said at the start of the season that he thought it would take 2 years in CF for him to be as good there as he is going to be.

 

We get all over Hall when he makes a mistake in the outfield, but it's overexaggerated -- fact of the matter is that May was a much better much defensively than April, I'm thinking June will be better -- it's a steady progression. If he makes another blunder on June 26th, we will probably get all over him again, forgetting that it's been 25 days since he last made a big mistake out there.

 

He's improving, he's getting used to it, he knew what he messed up on tonight, and he'll learn from it.

[tyguy20204]

I kinda was hoping to see Capellan.

[rluzinski]

A good rule of thumb is that a lead off double or a runner at 3rd with 1 out both score about 2/3rds of the time.

 

I kinda was hoping to see Capellan.

 

Yeh, wasting Wise on a 4 run lead seems incredibly shortsighted, IMO.

 

Still, a 2/3 chance of scoring the extra run isn't worth the tradeoff of avoiding our shaky bullpen with the starter at less than 80 pitches and cruising.

 

The Brewers were up 5 to 1 at the time, so I have to agree. Using that chart I linked to, you can look at the run probabilities of each situation to better analyze the cost of Suppan sacrificing there.

[valpocrewsader]

Not happy to be wasting Wise here. He's a valuable reliever who's arm isn't usually up to pitching back-to-back days. So why on earth would you bring him in to pitch the 9th of a 4 run game when you might need him tomorrow in a tough situation?

 

It's moves like this that give the anti-Yost crowd a firm leg to stand on.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Man, Uggla has HUGE elbows.

[sundevil1]

I kinda was hoping to see Capellan.

 

I was too. I though for sure he would come in and close the game since it is not a save opportunity

[JET15]

We caught a break on that third base foul ball.

 

Wise pulls the string to get him

[litesrn]

Just asking, adam, nothing more. I didn't say the experiment had failed, but rather was asking when, to use the vernacular, the sample size was large enough.

And two years is way too long for a team that wants to be a serious contender IMO. Two years means that we still have potential problems in CF throughout two of our best chances, at least in terms of preserving the roster, for being serious pennant/WS contenders.

[DHonks]

man, nice play there for Braun. The rule of thumb on plays like that is you'd rather throw it low and in the dirt, since then the 1b has a chance to dig it. Prince should have had that one.

[rluzinski]

A single? Braun had enough time to pause and even pump the ball once. Just a bad play.

 

man, nice play there for Braun. The rule of thumb on plays like that is you'd rather throw it low and in the dirt, since then the 1b has a chance to dig it. Prince should have had that one.

 

I agree that Prince should have had it but it appeared that the runner would have been safe anyway, no?

[crewcrazy]

Well there's the requisite Braun error after a HR. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[adambr2]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

I believe Cordero could get shelled here for 10 runs and 5 homers, and not a single run would count as an "earned run", because it was assumed that the 3rd out should have occured on the error.

 

Just one of those quirky scoring rules....I think that's how it works...

[rluzinski]

It's an absolute joke that this is a save situation. The Brewers have a 99% win probability:

 

LINK

[berniebrewer4life]

Sweet, we have a winning streak!!

[adambr2]

Quote:

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The Brewers were up 5 to 1 at the time, so I have to agree. Using that chart I linked to, you can look at the run probabilities of each situation to better analyze the cost of Suppan sacrificing there.

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Not to nitpick, but it was 5-2.

 

Anyway, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree, but I don't really think our pen has been enduring too many struggles, other than that horrible outing against Atlanta. So I figured with adding the extra man in the pen now with Capellan, we could afford to go to the pen after the 6th.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/142/376656694_530ee599f4.jpg