Why is the board convinced Sheets is gone after this year?

[Fatter than Joey]

Suppan's disappearing no-trade-clause after '08 says, "Right back at ya."

 

As others have pointed out, he still can block a trade -- plus with his mediocrity and huge salary bump in 09 I think he is pretty untradeable.

 

About the only way (realistically) I think Suppan could be traded would be if he were packaged with someone like Weeks or Hardy.

[TooLiveBrew]

Or the Brewers were to eat $2 mil. of his salary -- totally plausible.

[Fatter than Joey]

Or the Brewers were to eat $2 mil. of his salary -- totally plausible.

 

Sure -- I just dont think Suppan is the type of pitcher teams are going to trip over to get. I just think if the path to keeping Sheets is liquidating Suppan, that may be hard to do.

[don1481]

To me, the biggest indicator as to what direction ownership is leaning with Sheets can be found in the Braun/Fielder contract offer article:

He (Attanasio) gave no indication that the team would engage in midseason talks with Opening Day starter Ben Sheets, who will be a free agent at season's end.

"Ben is one of the premier pitchers in baseball, and we see what premier pitchers in baseball have been commanding -- which is astronomical numbers," Attanasio said. "I'm not going to speak for Ben, but it may be in his mindset to just see what he can do in free agency. He's certainly earned that right."

IMO that quote comes across as a diplomatic way of saying "we're not interested at this time. Good luck elsewhere, Benny."

[logan82]

mothershipconnection wrote:

I don't think he'd take that approach, as he'd be preventing a trade to a big budget contender where he can win and sign an extension while leaving himself open to having a lame duck contract with a crap team.

Depends on his motive. If he really doesn't want to be traded he would see who had the money and room in their rotation for him. He could also pick 8 really bad teams with no chance to win so he has a better chance to go to a contender. My gut feeling is that he would block trades to big cities as he seemed to be behind his motivation in coming to Milwaukee. Of course we might have offered the most money, but I doubt it.

 

FTJ, I think he has to pick 8 cities by some point as opposed to blocking trades, but I don't know that for sure. If he can veto the trades as they come 8 vetos would pretty much be a no trade clause. I doubt Melvin would go through the trouble to set up a trade more than a few times if it was going to get vetoed let alone 9 separate times.

 

http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=426

[Fatter than Joey]

FTJ, I think he has to pick 8 cities by some point as opposed to blocking trades,

 

Right -- But Suppan has some leverage -- that's all I am saying.

[JJHardy7]

It's really quite simple why Sheets will be gone or sign a contract below market value with the Brewers -- risk. He hasn't been dependable the past few years regardless of whether or not his injuries are arm related or not. Isn't it just fitting for Sheets to possibly have a monster year in the last year of his contract? I wouldn't mind offering a 3 year $36 million deal, but I doubt he would take that.

 

If the 3 young pitchers perform well this year, it will make letting Sheets walk a lot easier.

[Tbadder]

Look, the Brewers are probably close to being maxxed out in salaries right now. If Mark A. decides to sign Fielder and Braun, coupled with Suppan's untadeable contract, the cupboard is bare. Next year is gonna be ugly in the off-season as they look for an Ace and a Closer with no money at their disposal

[Invader3K]

Of course, if the Brewers make the playoffs this season, maybe there will be a bunch of extra money available? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[giffted1]

I'd love to have Sheets back, but it's highly unlikely. The only way I see him coming back is if we get Suppan off the books and Ben gives the Brewers a discount.

 

Regarding Suppan, I don't think he's completely untradeable. If the Crew makes the playoffs and Suppan pitches well again he's going to be overvalued by many teams...just like he was by us few years ago. I think someone would take on his contract to get a durable, "big game pitcher" possibly leaving us enough money to re-sign Sheets.

[Tbadder]

I will worship at your altar Gifted1 if that scenario plays out. For now I give you a "PRE-Hail oh Soothsayer Extraordinaire!"

[Invader3K]

I don't want to get into a big Suppan vs Sheets debate, but I don't see why we can only have one but not the other. We are paying Eric Gagne 10 million this year...he's likely gone after this off-season. That's a pretty big chunk of change off the books that could go towards a Sheets renewal. I'm just saying that it doesn't have to necessarily be one starting pitcher or the other. Frankly, I think a lot on here are undervaluing Suppan's durability.

 

However, Attanasio's comments make it seem unlikely that the Brewers are going to get into some kind of bidding war to keep Sheets anyway.

[Fatter than Joey]

Regarding Suppan, I don't think he's completely untradeable.

 

I don't either -- However, I think as a group we tend to handwave DM through trade scenarios. Capuano, Bush, Vargas, Cordero, and the list goes on of players that we thought that DM should have traded, and of course weren't.

 

Liquidating Suppan, is not going to be easy.

[DrWood]

If suppan stays healthy, provides 200+ innings, performing only slightly better than last year, he would be quite a reasonable pickup for some team, considering they would only have to pay him for two years. The Mets, for example, would probably love to have him.

Attanasio's comment does make it sound like he expects some other team to overpay for Ben, but it doesn't necessarily sound like they won't try to sign him after the season.

If a couple of our younger guys get injured this season, retaining Ben seems more likely, simply because they won't have a choice.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think signing Sheets is doable. Whether it's wise to do so is another thing. There's plenty of salary potentially disappearing for 2009 especially if Luis Pena and one or two others (Stetter and Bray for instance) show they are major league relievers. I'm not saying Pena even needs to be ready to close in 2009, but Riske might not be a bad bridge in that role for one year. If Gagne ($10 million), Counsell ($2.8), Turnbow (3.2), Capuano ($3.75), Mota ($3.2), and Cameron (6.22), and Shouse (2.0) are all replaced by guys earning $10 million total, that saves $21 million. While much of that could be eaten by arby deals to Fielder and Weeks, lets keep in mind Attanasio has already opened up the wallet much more than anyone had projected. That takes care of 2009. That would leave just one year of Suppan's deal left.

 

If Sheets has a great 2008, say 18-9, 3.20 ERA, 180K's, in top 5 in Cy Young voting, he'll approach $20 million per year in open market and that might be a bit rich for Brewers. But if he's a mere 16-11, 3.70 ERA, 160K's, I think that keeps him in the $16 million range per year which I think the Brewers can afford.

[craigharmann]

If Sheets pitches every game like he did yesterday, or somewhere even close to it, it will cost the Brewers a lot of money, if they choose to make him an offer. They may make him an offer, but he always has the ability to turn it down. It seems to me like he likes the community, but what if the Astros, or Rangers or a team closer to Louisiana makes him an offer bigger than the Brewers? If it was me, I'd have to seriously consider it, money or not.

[DrWood]

If Sheets has a great 2008, say 18-9, 3.20 ERA, 180K's, in top 5 in Cy Young voting, he'll approach $20 million per year in open market and that might be a bit rich for Brewers. But if he's a mere 16-11, 3.70 ERA, 160K's, I think that keeps him in the $16 million range per year which I think the Brewers can afford.

16 million for 2-3 years might be in their budget, but 16 million for 6-7 years probably isn't, or if it is, it definitely means Fielder is leaving.

 

[joepepsi]

I'd love to see them sign him again, but not at the expense of the young stars. I have always thought of Sheets as his generation's Curt Schilling. Schilling is probably done after this year, so look for the Red Sox to throw big money at Ben. He won't be able to turn it down.

 

Some season soon the flukey injuries will stop and Ben will reel off 4-5 years of Cy Young type stats...

[patrickgpe]

I think if healty, sheets is going to have a big year. that being said looking at our prospects we have 3 legit starters who are not even eligible for arbitration. In addition Suppan has a big contract for the next 2 seasons after this one. In addition Mark is going to have to find money to take care of Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart, and Hardy. Tough decisions has to be made and Sheets really hasn't shown he can be healthy for a full year. I think if the brewers and him can reach a resonable contract, I'd love to see him stay. I just think that some team is going to throw 20 million per at him and the brewers won't be able to match it.

[DrWood]

20 million really is a lot of money, even for baseball players. that would put sheets in the top 10 or so largest salaries. He doesn't deserve that. He's not going to get a Zito-esque contract-- 7 years for 126 million--18 million per.

[BrewCrewForever]

Man with Sheets healthy and pitching the way we all know he can I think he might win 18-20 games this season with a ERA around 3 and rack up a lot of K's. I just hope to God he wants to stay here and we can offer him the money to keep him here.

[endaround]

Before the Cordero offer, I thought there was no way Sheets would be back, but after offering Cordero $13 million, getting Sheets $16 million isn't out of the question. Still unlikely though.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

<<< 16 million for 2-3 years might be in their budget, but 16 million for 6-7 years probably isn't, or if it is, it definitely means Fielder is leaving. >>>

I said it earlier, and i'll say it again. I'd rather have Sheets than Fielder. Prince is a nice player, but simply put, #1 pitchers are much tougher to find than great 1st basemen (especially if LaPorta turns out to be decent). I know the argument is that we can't pay Sheets AND Fielder big money once Hart, Hardy, Weeks, Braun (and later Villy/Parra/Yo) start making money, but i think that 2-3 years downt the road, we'll be priced out of Fielder anyways (and Matt should be ready).

As was noted earlier, outside of Sheets and Suppan, our starting rotation should be dirt cheap the next 2-3 years. If we make an economical use out of our bullpen, we should be able to afford to pay Ben $16-18M.

If Ben is willing to sign a 4 year deal ($64M to $72M range), i think we'd be stupid not to do it.

[Tbadder]

I totally am on board with this reasoning. Pitching is tough to come by. If you're serious you gotta pony up even though the risks are greater with pitchers, especially an organization like Milwaukee which has shown zero propensity to develop pitchers on even a semi-regular basis.

 

If an organization believes it can simply bludgeon other teams to death with great offense, well, they're gonna find themselves frustrated year after year (see Texas Rangers, Cinncy Reds, etc.) A healthy Sheets is worth more than a healthy Fielder, but a much rarer commodity, and so I'm afraid the current braintrust will side with Fielder.

 

Which gets me wondering, if you could obtain the best lefthanded hitting first baseman in the minor leagues and a couple of other mid-level prospects why not do it if it enabled you to keep your ace as well?

[DrWood]

yeah, pitching is tough to come by. And how many 23-year-old 1B have hit 50 HR? Only one, so Prince is probably more transcendent than is Sheets.