Bill Hall stealing bases

[Sepolevne]

Maybe I just don't get it because I never have seen him be much of a threat, but I saw Bill Hall try to take 2 bases today. Is this something new or am I missing something?

[Ennder]

He didn't run last year because of the ankle. He isn't a very good basestealer but he is fast enough to swipe a few. As long as he isn't getting caught too much I'm ok with it.

[logan82]

Hall is a terrible base stealer. He has been under 50% successful over the last 2 years. He has speed, but is a bad base stealer.

[kramnoj]

Hall is a terrible base stealer. He has been under 50% successful over the last 2 years. He has speed, but is a bad base stealer.

 

Why would you use the last two years, when he was a good base stealer 3 years ago?

[trwi7]

Why would you use the last two years, when he was a good base stealer 3 years ago?

 

He's a career 57% base stealer. He had one year where he was over 70% so that looks to be an aberration. I agree with logan, I don't want Hall stealing very much, if at all.

[kramnoj]

Why would you use the last two years, when he was a good base stealer 3 years ago?

He's a career 57% base stealer. He had one year where he was over 70% so that looks to be an aberration. I agree with logan, I don't want Hall stealing very much, if at all.

 

You present the argument well. I was genuinely asking why he would only the last two years of data. That only represents 27 data points. With a sample that small, we don't know how much is noise and how much is relevant.

[adambr2]

Hall had better not be getting the green light much this season. Stealing bases just isn't his stength, that goes back to overaggression.

 

However, Hall's steal of second with 2 outs and Hart up was a good steal situation, so I didn't mind that much. Well, especially since he made it, but even if he hadn't, I would have understood that one.

[Sepolevne]

The second one wasn't bad, but when they tried the double steal, he was out by 5 feet or so. It was really ugly. I didn't see it coming at all, I'd never thought of him as a speed guy.

[sbrylski]

He's on my fantasy team, so I'm cool with it.

[nate82]

The first one where he was caught wasn't a steal it was a hit and run that didn't work.

[razzzorsharp]

Did Yost say that because I was hoping it was?

[logan82]

kramnoj wrote:

Why would you use the last two years, when he was a good base stealer 3 years ago?

He has been at 50% or lower stealing bases in all but 2 years of his career. One year he was 66%, which I believe is about break even for an average team, and once 75%. With the slugging on our team I am not sure if 75% is high enough to break even.

[Schlitz001]

http://images.yuku.com/image/pjpeg/69115c948e62c63d61996ca027b120d54806fac.pjpg

As far as straight speed goes he proved last spring that he's one of the fastest on the team, but that obviously didn't translate into his stolen base ratio. I don't know if an ankle injury has anything to do with his getting caught stealing the last two years, but I say as long as he is healthy and Yost uses him in moderation, go ahead and send him. But we know Yost has gotten carried away in the past (see Brady Clark) when it comes to overusing certain runners.

 

[nate82]

Looked like it was a missed hit and run or it was a double steal. But since Rivera was swinging at the pitch I'm going with a hit and run.

[Fatter than Joey]

But since Rivera was swinging at the pitch I'm going with a hit and run.

 

I am not sure calling a H&R with Rivera up makes me feel better.

 

With the slugging on our team I am not sure if 75% is high enough to break even.

 

I agree 100% Logan. These guys have good enough wheels (Hart scoring from 2nd on a FC), I am not sure taking risks with stealing is a great idea.

[kramnoj]

kramnoj wrote:

Why would you use the last two years, when he was a good base stealer 3 years ago?

He has been at 50% or lower stealing bases in all but 2 years of his career. One year he was 66%, which I believe is about break even for an average team, and once 75%. With the slugging on our team I am not sure if 75% is high enough to break even.

Well, the actual number of events is important. He had almost as many attempts 3 years ago when he was good as the last two years combined.

 

As to the breakeven point and slugging, if Hall continues to hit 5th, I don't know how relevant that is. If it's a tight game and they think they can get Hall to 2nd so that a single from Hart or Hardy can score him, sounds good to me.

 

I don't think we know at this point whether or not we can say with certainty what kind of base-stealer Hall is right now. We obviously don't have enough to think that he should always have the green light, but there isn't enough to suggest he is horrible either.

[pabrewerfan]

It's too early in the season for me to point this out but I guess I will anyways...

 

It seems like an early strategy is to run a little more this year. We have attempted 8 steals in 5 games, which is an average of 1.6 per. Last season we only attempted 128 steals or .79 per game.

 

So maybe Yost wants the boys to be more aggressive on the paths.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think we know at this point whether or not we can say with certainty what kind of base-stealer Hall is right now. We obviously don't have enough to think that he should always have the green light, but there isn't enough to suggest he is horrible either.

 

He's obviously is a fast dude -- but I have seen enough to conclude that he should be nailed to the base.

[kramnoj]

It's too early in the season for me to point this out but I guess I will anyways...

 

It seems like an early strategy is to run a little more this year. We have attempted 8 steals in 5 games, which is an average of 1.6 per. Last season we only attempted 128 steals or .79 per game.

 

So maybe Yost wants the boys to be more aggressive on the paths.

 

I seem to remember hearing somebody in the offseason say that the Brewers would try to be more aggressive this year. Part of moving Braun behind Prince was to get the use of Braun's speed. There will certainly be times when it will cost us runs and it may cost us some games. But I think the point is that agressive players are more sharp, and its better to be sharp than rely on the home run to win games.

[endaround]

They said the exact same thing last year. And the year before that.

[logan82]

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Well, the actual number of events is important. He had almost as many attempts 3 years ago when he was good as the last two years combined.

I would like to think that they realized he is bad at stealing bases so he has less attempts.

 

As to the breakeven point and slugging, if Hall continues to hit 5th, I don't know how relevant that is. If it's a tight game and they think they can get Hall to 2nd so that a single from Hart or Hardy can score him, sounds good to me

Outs are outs. The best way to win games is minimize outs. Hall attempting stealing leads to an increased in outs and therefore less scoring. The slugging is very relevant, even in the 5th spot. If we had singles hitter after Hall it might make sense to steal, but we don't. The likely hood of a multibase hit is pretty good so he is better off waiting at 1st than making an out on the bases.

 

I don't think we know at this point whether or not we can say with certainty what kind of base-stealer Hall is right now. We obviously don't have enough to think that he should always have the green light, but there isn't enough to suggest he is horrible either.

I think we can. Are you going to tell me that we also don't know what kind of base stealer Fielder is since he has so few attempts?

[istanbultaye]

I'm leaning towards that 'double steal' being a blown hit and run myself, meaning that Billy is 1-0 in 'real' steal attempts so far this year. Of course, he also got picked off second base in the first game of the year, but that throw knocked Zambrano out of the game, so we have to give Bill props for that. Overall, I think Billy's is the only CS by a Brewer so far this year, meaning that overall they have a darn good success ratio so far. We'll see if it keeps up.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm leaning towards that 'double steal' being a blown hit and run myself,

 

Even I can't believe Yost would call a H&R with Rivera batting.

 

Of course, he also got picked off second base in the first game of the year,

 

That was 100% a knucklehead play by Hall.

 

but that throw knocked Zambrano out of the game, so we have to give Bill props for that.

 

Really? How so? -- I mean if the throw hurt Z, Hall didn't to get out.

[logan82]

Fatter than Joey wrote:

but that throw knocked Zambrano out of the game, so we have to give Bill props for that.

 

Really? How so?

Come on we all know Hall stole Zambrano's bananas.

[kramnoj]

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I would like to think that they realized he is bad at stealing bases so he has less attempts.

 

Outs are outs. The best way to win games is minimize outs. Hall attempting stealing leads to an increased in outs and therefore less scoring. The slugging is very relevant, even in the 5th spot. If we had singles hitter after Hall it might make sense to steal, but we don't. The likely hood of a multibase hit is pretty good so he is better off waiting at 1st than making an out on the bases.

 

I think we can. Are you going to tell me that we also don't know what kind of base stealer Fielder is since he has so few attempts?

 

When did they realize he was a bad base stealer? After he had stolen at a 75% rate? And if they thought he was a bad base stealer, why did he have any attempts at all?

 

It's not true that outs are outs. The value of an out varies depending on the run environment. You indicated this yourself when you talked about the slugging on the team. I am making the point that the two best sluggers on this team are in front of Hall, so we can't count the value of their slugging when considering when Hall should run. Now, if Hart continues to show the power that he had last year, you are correct, the need for Hall to run will decrease.

 

As far as Fielder is concerned, the evidence so far is that when he has attempted to steal a base, he has chosen wisely. As for what kind of runner he is now, I would judge that more on whatever speed he has shown now more than on his success two years ago.