Is Prince going to see a power dip this year?

[adambr2]

No reason to be alarmed, but we really haven't seen Prince drive the ball much since late last year. 1 HR in spring training. Even the one he almost hit out yesterday looked like one that normally carries enough for him to get it.

 

I'm not a nutritionalist, and I have no knowledge of whether a strict vegetarian diet is possibly detrimental to his homerun power. Probably not. But after 5 weeks of showing little power I do wish it would start coming around a little bit.

[razzzorsharp]

I would think a power dip would be coming but strictly because 50 HRs is a very hard feat.

 

Anywhere between 35-45 for him sounds right.

[dogs with bees in their mo]

He's on the schedule magnet. It's a lock.

[drezdn]

Also, there's the Bobblehead Curse to keep in mind.

[drezdn]

The only other player to hit nearly that many homeruns did (Wilie Mays, IIRC), but if Gaylord Perry is to be believed, Mays could easily overthink things.

[TheBrewer]

He's been spraying the ball more with less power to all fields it seems - thus a higher BA possibly. So we may see him go .320/30HR.. he may dip this year and then next season may be a monster year with a .340BA/50HR.. but right now with what he's doing I think so far he's more likely to do the .320BA mark with 30HR's,.. I'm sure his power will come around, but to what extent?

[snyttri]

He should catch up to a good home run pace soon when he goes on a tear. I think it would be very unlikely for him to hit less than 40.

[PeaveyFury]

Also, there's the Bobblehead Curse to keep in mind.

 

Prince had a bobble last year as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess it all depends on what one means by "power." He's very unlikely to surpass 50 HR again, just because it's incredibly hard to do, but Prince is a lock for 35+ HR per year just almost by accident. However, when I'm considering power, I don't want to sell short the value of 2Bs & SLG in general. Better SLG tends to lead to more OBP, which is obviously a great thing.

 

I personally expect Prince to hit around 45 HR this season, but I'm guessing he'll have his first 40 2B/40 HR season, too. Imo his BA & OBP will go up, and his SLG will be down ever so slightly.

[stoutdude04]

Didnt Howard start out last year slowly? He finished with a good amount of homers, although, he did have a lower BA. If I recall without looking.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess the problem I see is that you can't use how a guy "starts out" to determine what he's going to produce -- these are just games like Aug.18th-Sept. 12th are just games, too. I like much better to rely on past performances, since you obviously have a larger sample. Seeing as how Prince is a young player who's growing, at the least we shouldn't expect him to regress much. Then again, "regress" is all so subjective. Some fans would see a season where Prince "only" hit 38 HR as a step back, even if he drew over 100 BBs & surpassed 40 2Bs.

 

What I try to do is gauge a range of 'expectability' (sorry, don't know how to say it). Prince has high 30 to low 60 HR potential imo, so I can't really be too upset if he hits 37, or too excited if he were to hit 58 (well, that would be pretty exciting... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ). I'm no expert, but I've found that not trying to define 'success' or 'failure' too strictly has helped me understand the fluctuations of baseball much, much better.

[bacon06]

Didn't it take until May for Prince to start cranking home runs last year? Personally, I don't think Prince looks that comfortable at the plate right now, but it's so very early and he will find a groove because he is that good of a hitter.

[bork]

Here are Prince's monthly totals from last year. Hardy was ahead of him until around mid-May, I think.

April - 6

May - 13

June - 8

July - 3

August - 9

Sept - 11