How Much Pressure is on Bush in his next start?

[joepepsi]

I fully expect Bush to have a similar career to Suppan. Per 9 ip he strikes out 6.3 and walks just under 2. He's going to wind up on a team that plays stellar defense one year and win 16-18 games with an ERA under 4. He'll parlay that into a 4/$40 miilion type contract, stay injury free and throw 190 innings at major league average ERA for several years. That has value.

 

I don't think he should block a more talented, younger pitcher, but I'm not ready to give up on him just yet. Sheets will be gone next year and there's no guarantee with Capuano. They're gonna need him in 2009.

[brains and braun]

I dread a rotation without Sheets. We all know what it's like, but a whole year of it may be brutal.

[Mr QL]

I wish we kept Vargas and I think that pretty much sums up my thoughts of Bush. I grew tired of him last year and I don't really see him endearing himself to me the rest of this season either.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

The organization loves him because of his work ethic, his preparation, blah..blah..blah. The bottom line is right now, last year, he is not that good. He wasn't good in ST either. Bush is a soft tosser. And if he doesn't have Maddux like control, he's a 500 pitcher with a high WHIP and ERA.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Even though McClung is the current 12th man on the pitching staff, when Yo comes back I'd rather have McClung remain in that 12th spot and figure out something else to do with Bush. Maybe they go with a 13 man pitching staff and send Gwynn/Dillon down to AAA if they want to keep Bush as another long relief/spot starter option

 

I remember the comparisons between Bush and Chris Carpenter...I thought at the time that the only similarities they had were that they were right-handed and pitched for the Blue Jays at one point.

[TooLiveBrew]

The organization loves him because of his work ethic, his preparation, blah..blah..blah. The bottom line is right now, last year, he is not that good.

 

So the "soft-tosser" line has now been moved to around 90 mph? I don't like Dave Bush, blah...blah...blah. Anytime there's a statement like "bottom line is...", I get wary.

[jackalope02ca]

Bush is what he is. A .500 type pitcher who every team has. He's a great #5 type pitcher. They can't all be stars and I'm sure that is what he'll be by the end of the year on this team if not a long releiver. Don't expect the world from him as your not going to get it.

[RyDogg66]

bottom line, Bush isnt much different than Suppan.

[Fatter than Joey]

bottom line, 10.+ ERA is not going to put the dolphins in the dump truck

[DrWood]

I actually was gratified to see Bush didn't really give up the huge inning, where he definitely had a chance to do that. He's not going to walk that many guys (plus a HBP, iirc) very often. Give him a few more starts before you give up. He could be an average #3 (check the stats from last season to see what an average #3 does--It's not sub 4.00 ERA).

[logan82]

Wow, I was going to start an overreaction thread just for fun to make claims based on one game, but it looks like every thread is an overreaction thread right now.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"My problem with Bush is that Yost seems to think because Bush is a SP he needs to throw 100 pitches and pitch at least 6 innings. Yost seems to do this with players a lot -- for example "Brady Clark is a CF, therefore he should be stealing bases.""

 

Nicely played, FTJ.

 

Yost is really into roles his players should..."become" regardless of whether they deserve or earn these tags or not. Hell, he had Obermueller as a #4 starter, hoping for 32 starts from that clown, and for a while, Clark not only was given the green light to steal, but he batted him cleanup! Ned also decided that Moeller would be Ben Sheets' designated catcher, and that Wes Helms was a good enough hitter to sometimes bat 3rd!

 

So when I see Ned sending Boosh out there, expecting him to become our default #3 guy (for now), I cringe.

 

Honestly, I think I'd dislike Dave Bush a whole lot less if he were limited to being our long man. But a starter? Nah.

 

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edit for a fresh reply...

 

"Wow, I was going to start an overreaction thread just for fun to make claims based on one game, but it looks like every thread is an overreaction thread right now."

 

You're in the strike zone, on this one, Logan.

 

That's why it's so tough to post here, early in the season. You're SO open to the slings and arrows of the Sabremetric crowd, because pretty much everything you post will get sample-sized until...July. I once challenged Al the Thinking Man to tell me honestly, at which point of the season may I start to react to things, and he couldn't answer. Everything you say in April, and probably May, will get sample-sized, so it's difficult.

 

But that won't stop me!....

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Wow, I was going to start an overreaction thread just for fun to make claims based on one game

I'm not basing this on 1 game. If you read my initial post, this is about the last 2+ years of Dave Bush.

[TooLiveBrew]

You're right, your unrealistic expectations date back multiple seasons.

[endaround]

Where is the I expect more of Villaneuva thread? He was getting pounded by the Giants!

[kramnoj]

And that's the problem isn't it? Bush is a 4/5 starter. Villy and Suppan are 4/5 starters. Parra's a reall 4/5 starter until he proves otherwise (certainly he has 2/3 starter stuff). Gallardo is 2/3 in terms of stuff, though I think his make up is clearly 2, and Benny's a number1 when healthy. What's wrong with this picture? Nothing if you're trying to field a good, entertaining team, but if you're aiming for the whole enchilada...meh.

 

Suppan isn't a 4/5. He's a 2/3. You vastly overrate how many good pitchers there are in the major leagues. Seriously, if you are saying that Suppan is a 4, then you are saying that there are at least 90 pitchers starting in the big leagues better than him.

 

All of our pitchers don't have to be above average. To succeed in the playoffs you want 3 really good starters and a couple guys that will keep you in the game. I don't know if this rotation will get us anywhere in the playoffs, but it could be good enough to get us there.

[endaround]

You vastly overrate Suppan. Bush is better than Suppan. 90 pitchers better than Suppan? Suppan ranked #98 in VORP last season. Obviously there are some relievers in that, but Suppan is nowhere close to a 2/3, at best he's a 3/4.

[kramnoj]

You vastly overrate Suppan. Bush is better than Suppan. 90 pitchers better than Suppan? Suppan ranked #98 in VORP last season. Obviously there are some relievers in that, but Suppan is nowhere close to a 2/3, at best he's a 3/4.

 

You're going to rank Suppan based on one season? If you know where to find VORP, you should know better than that. I would like to see you support the assertion that Bush is better than Suppan.

[endaround]

I could care less what Suppan did 3 years ago at this point. He is much more likely to fall off from last year than suddenly improve. Every single projection has Bush better than Suppan.

[kramnoj]

I could care less what Suppan did 3 years ago at this point. He is much more likely to fall off from last year than suddenly improve. Every single projection has Bush better than Suppan.

 

Your evidence for Bush being better than Suppan is projections? Projections that are usually wrong about 1/3 of the time? Projections have their uses, but that doesn't mean that we should just blindly follow them and turn off our brain.

[sbrylski]

You vastly overrate Suppan. Bush is better than Suppan. 90 pitchers better than Suppan? Suppan ranked #98 in VORP last season. Obviously there are some relievers in that, but Suppan is nowhere close to a 2/3, at best he's a 3/4.

You're going to rank Suppan based on one season? If you know where to find VORP, you should know better than that. I would like to see you support the assertion that Bush is better than Suppan.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4635_633_P_cseason_full_1_20080404.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4635_633_P_cseason_full_2_20080404.png

[kramnoj]

Peripherals are a good indicator, but they are just that, an indicator. Wang with the Yankees has less than inspiring peripherals, yet has performed as a top pitcher. This really isn't any different than what endaround was saying. If Bush projects to be better than Suppan, it is because of these peripherals. The end result matters.

 

I would love it if Suppan performed as a 3 this year and Bush peformed better. I just don't think it's likely.

[Ennder]

Wang's peripherals aren't really very bad if you use something like xERA that takes into account GB%. Bush has had a career long trend of pitching poorly with RISP and most projection systems want to regress it to the mean. Not sure it is something he can fix. They are about the same as each other though, Suppan was a product of a good defense in STL and not much else.

[kramnoj]

Suppan was a good pitcher before he was with the Cardinals. Now maybe that's not relevant because projection systems typically don't go back that far. But Bush from age 24-27 was an inferior pitcher to Suppan at the same age, and I dont currently see a reason to think that Bush is going to get better than he has been.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I really like Bush, and think that he can eventually put it together, but with Ben, Jeff, Manny, and Villy all throwing outstanding in their first start, is there pressure for Bush to pitch well in his next start before Yo comes back? Someone will have to go to the pen, or be sent down to AAA when Yo is ready to go. I realize limiting Parra's innings could be a factor, perhaps with Yo as well this season, and given our injury history, we'll certainly need depth, but I just hope Bush doesn't press too much in his next start.

 

I remember our rotation have an amazing start to the season last year, and IIRC, somewhat of a downer in May.

 

Parra definitely showing the promise that we saw early in his minor league career, and it looks like he could be a very good player for us for the years to come.