How Much Pressure is on Bush in his next start?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

When we got Dave Bush in the Overbay trade, I was thinking big things for Dave Bush, and he had an ok year in 2006 so I expected improvement in 2007. Well that didn't happen. Today was kind of a fluky start for him because he walked so many batters when he usually throws it right down the middle to avoid such a thing.

 

I remember people projecting him as a future 20 game winner or for better accuracy on stats, a 3 ERA pitcher, and he just doesn't look like that type of pitcher or even close. It looks like he's going to be a high 4 ERA pitcher who'll win 12 games for a team that gives decent run support.

 

It's only one game, but I was hoping to see better out of Dave Bush in the last 2+ years we've had him.

[rluzinski]

Bush was never projected to be a 3.0 ERA pitcher by anyone. How many true 3.0 ERA starting pitchers do you think there even are? I would say zero:

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkimQBCeCjbh9Naiaqg60TA

 

I thought Bush could be a low 4 ERA pitcher. I'm not so sure anymore. I still think he's still a decent #4 or #5 but that's about it. If the Brewer end up with 5 better options to start than him, he'll be a fine long relief guy this year.

[adambr2]

When we got Dave Bush in the Overbay trade, I was thinking big things for Dave Bush, and he had an ok year in 2006 so I expected improvement in 2007. Well that didn't happen. Today was kind of a fluky start for him because he walked so many batters when he usually throws it right down the middle to avoid such a thing.

 

I remember people projecting him as a future 20 game winner or for better accuracy on stats, a 3 ERA pitcher, and he just doesn't look like that type of pitcher or even close. It looks like he's going to be a high 4 ERA pitcher who'll win 12 games for a team that gives decent run support.

 

It's only one game, but I was hoping to see better out of Dave Bush in the last 2+ years we've had him.

 

A 3 ERA, 20 win pitcher? I hope no one was realistically predicting that. I know we all loved Overbay when he was here, but we would have embarrassed the Blue Jays in the trade if Bush was really worth that. He's never really projected any higher than the bottom of a rotation. If he was really a 3 ERA, 20 win pitcher, he could be our ace.

 

Bush had a great WHIP in 2006, which I think caused some to project him far too high. He's probably not ever going to be much more than a #4 to #5 pitcher. On the Brewers he is probably the 6th best starter when Gallardo returns.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think I read that 3 ERA projection on ESPN. I should have considered the source. But only a #4 or #5? I thought he was more than that.

[iluvlamp]

David Bush has been in the rotation for a while and he has overstayed his welcome. He is not that good. Now he's walking people? Vargas maybe should have been paid. I don't know. I thought he could have been quality. Considering how Bush pitches against the Cubs it's not a good idea to have him pitch at Wrigley.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It would probably be smart to take Parra out of the rotation when Gallardo comes back to limit his innings, but I think we'd field a better rotation with Dave Bush not included in it. We are really banking on Villy and Parra to become above average pitchers this year. That's kinda scary.

[stoutdude04]

Bush could definatly still become a quality pitcher. He had a few tough pitches get hit hard. Some weak defense hurt him today as well. Like others have mentioned, 4 or 5 would be what I would expect.

[mothershipconnection]

I don't remember anyone here thinking Bush would be a Cy Young contender. Most people though Jackson was the real gem in that trade: the one with a top of the rotation ceiling. In Bush, it seemed people thought he was a serviceable pitcher who could potentially blossom into a very good #3, not a replacement for Sheets.

I've never really been a fan of Bush, outside of the fact that he's durable and isn't a bad option at all for your #5 spot. I've seen the same flashes that everyone else has, but I don't trust him to "put it all together".

[Houlie24x]

I remember reading mid 3 ERA and 20 wins from fantasy baseball sites and magazines. They were saying he could eventually develop into a low 3 era guy and compared him to Chris Carpenter.

[TheBrewer]

Doug Melvin compared him to Chris Carpenter. I'm big on fantasy publications and fantasy in general, they thought he could do more (after 2006 season), he had a good K:BB ratio if I remember correctly. I think the consensous was from something like 15W/3.60-3.80ERA/200K.. He looked like a pitcher who could do it (after the 06 season), but I don't think that'll happen anymore.. he seems to have taken 2 steps back in 07 and now 08 (thus far)

[sbrylski]

Obligatory: Way to early to use his performance this season to do anything to your opinion of him.

 

I was one of the most optimistic Bush supporters, especially after 2006 with his gorgeous peripherals. I was hoping for him to settle into a upper 3's range. I tried to look around his pedestrian home run rates.

 

I think he can still turn into that player, but the longer it takes the less likely it becomes. For now, he's a mid-4's #4 in a decent rotation. Keep attacking that zone, Davey, no free passes. In fact, that's his problem - he needs to attack it to keep his walk rate down, but then he gives up the big hits and doesn't quite have the stuff. Tip-toe too much, and his walk rate goes up.

[ILuvDaBush]

It was one start, and he did have some suspect defensive miscues today. The stat I always come back to with Bush is K/BB, coupled with a good amount of innings. To me, if he does those things, he's a very serviceable three, much more than the Soup. And honestly, yesterday's game could have mirrored today's game if that hop to Hall happened a day earlier instead of Hall having a very good game (and series) defensively. Braun...well it's but a Bill Hall bump in the road to left field.

[Gopher74]

Obligatory: Way to early to use his performance this season to do anything to your opinion of him.

 

I was one of the most optimistic Bush supporters, especially after 2006 with his gorgeous peripherals. I was hoping for him to settle into a upper 3's range. I tried to look around his pedestrian home run rates.

 

I think he can still turn into that player, but the longer it takes the less likely it becomes. For now, he's a mid-4's #4 in a decent rotation. Keep attacking that zone, Davey, no free passes.

I absolutely agree. Last year coming into the season, I was leading the "Dave Bush could be a real number 2" charge, and he just didn't put it all together last year, leading to some questions as to what he really is going to be moving forward, but it's absolutely ridiculous to use this start and say, "see, I knew last year was the real Dave Bush and not the 06 season(which by the way, WAS very good) was the real Dave Bush.

 

Bush got hurt by some poor defense today. In another month or two, Dave Bush gets out of that inning where Braun botched that play in LF without giving up a run most likely. So that puts the score at 4-3 and we've got a different approach, and Dave Bush looks a lot better. But even so, he just didn't have the control today that he normally does. He was missing over the plate, and that's where he really gets hurt. He doesn't have that Ben Sheets stuff to miss over the white and get away with it.

 

The fact is, I see Dave Bush as a poor mans Ben Sheets. He works aggressive, and he works fast. He attacks hitters with his fastball that runs up there between about 89-92 whereas Sheets is 92-96, and he tries putting them away with his curve which when it's on can be very good, but more often is just a slightly above average pitch.

 

And where I disagree with you is saying he needs to keep his BB rate down. Yea, he can't be walking hitters too much, BUT when he falls behind, he needs to either be perfect shooting the corner, or put him on base. What happens, and everyone knows this, he comes right down the middle becuase he's so worried about putting guys on base, and the send it into orbit. If he could just actually walk guys a LITTLE bit more often, I think he'd be better off.

 

Overall, right now I think he's one of the top 3-4 number 5's in the game.

I'm also still hoping he can be that 4.10-4.25 200 IP 175 K 1.20 Whip type guy, and I think he's going to have to be next year if/when Sheets bolts.

[igor67]

Bush has underperformed where I thought he could be, but about so dramatically that I assume he can be kicked to the curb. If we do continue to have a rotation crunch when Gallardo comes back. I'd be interested in the idea of putting Bush in the pen. I had forgotten that he was a very good closer in college, and the switch back might benefit him more than other pitchers.

[Brian the Automator]

It's probably time for Bush to get traded or bumped to the pen. I feel more confident with Sheets/Yo/Soup/CV/Parra, and I'm actually ok with having Narveson as the backup fifth starter, if need be. Of course, Bush will probably dazzle in his next start, and will then go on to stink another two up. I think we got value from him... 30+ starts each of the past two years, but it's probably time to part ways.

[tigerbrew]

If we do continue to have a rotation crunch when Gallardo comes back. I'd be interested in the idea of putting Bush in the pen. I had forgotten that he was a very good closer in college, and the switch back might benefit him more than other pitchers.

I do like the idea of moving Bush to the pen, but who do we remove to make room for him?

 

Wonder if Bush can be optioned to AAA instead?

[Brian the Automator]

I do like the idea of moving Bush to the pen, but who do we remove to make room for him?

 

Wonder if Bush can be optioned to AAA instead?

In that case, McClung would probably be the odd-man out, since he's the long-man. As far as options go, I believe he has one left.

[Tbadder]

And that's the problem isn't it? Bush is a 4/5 starter. Villy and Suppan are 4/5 starters. Parra's a reall 4/5 starter until he proves otherwise (certainly he has 2/3 starter stuff). Gallardo is 2/3 in terms of stuff, though I think his make up is clearly 2, and Benny's a number1 when healthy. What's wrong with this picture? Nothing if you're trying to field a good, entertaining team, but if you're aiming for the whole enchilada...meh.

[BrewCrewForever]

It's probably time for Bush to get traded or bumped to the pen. I feel more confident with Sheets/Yo/Soup/CV/Parra, and I'm actually ok with having Narveson as the backup fifth starter, if need be. Of course, Bush will probably dazzle in his next start, and will then go on to stink another two up. I think we got value from him... 30+ starts each of the past two years, but it's probably time to part ways.

I couldn't agree with you more Brian. When Yo comes off the DL I want the rotation to be Sheets/Gallardo/Suppan/Villy/Parra. Hell if Capuano can come back this year I would trade Bush, if not he can sit in the pen.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Bush should be fine for a endof the rotation guy. His k:BB never meant much to me since both those totals always seem so low that they really only count for a small portion of the total. He may have a 2:1 total but that seems less important when you realize it actually was only 2 k's and 1 walk. He plays to contact and relies on his defense which should help him more this year than last (first game excluded). He's been durable and eats a decent amount of innings and gives the team a chance to win most of the days he's out there. As pitchers go he's pedestiran and boring. For a 4th or 5th guy that's preferable to hot and cold IMO.

[Fatter than Joey]

My problem with Bush is that Yost seems to think because Bush is a SP he needs to throw 100 pitches and pitch at least 6 innings. Yost seems to do this with players a lot -- for example "Brady Clark is a CF, therefore he should be stealing bases." I wrote an article last off-season looking at what happened to starters in their pitches 75-100.

 

It seemed to me last year, Yost was very stubborn about removing pitchers early from games, and let our pitchers get brutalized from pitches 75-100. I think Yost needs a quicker hook in some games, especially when guys like Bush/Suppan/Vargas are pitching. I think you can expect guys like Sheets and hopefully Yo, to give you some quality in the pitches 75-100 range, however, I think when a pitcher like Bush is not at 100% -- nothing good is going to become of it.

 

I know the canned response to this is "you will complain if Yost burns his BP up" -- but I think there is a middle ground where you realize Bush is not a pitcher capable of giving you 100 quality pitches in all of his starts, and you can't have the same template with the backend of the rotation that you do with the front.

[sbrylski]

Woah, its time to part ways? I couldn't disagree more. He's been solid, obviously has talent, and had just one year with a too-high ERA. Giving up on a 28 year old pitcher with a career 4.57 ERA I don't agree with.

[Tbadder]

I agree with Fatter Than Joey on this, and that's the reason they never should have dumped Vargas. Vargas can pile up innings as a long reliever, probably 4 to 5 innings at a time. I doubt McClung can do the same. Vargas is the perfect player to protect your pen from having to trot out a bunch of one inning stints. And if Claudio implodes as he surely will at times, well, you've probably lost the game in the first place. Just make it clear to him there are times he's gonna get clubbed like a baby seal, but he's doing it to keep his comrades fresh.

[brewers4eric]

I agree with Fatter than Joey. Bush is certainly capable of throwing 200 innnings a year, but I was surprised that he didn't get the hook a little earlier yesterday. For a pitcher that is usually around the plate, the number of walks that he had was disturbing. I would have felt better about the game if he would have traded a couple of walks for hit batsmen, especialy against the Cubs.

[Fatter than Joey]

Woah, its time to part ways? I couldn't disagree more.

 

I don't think BtA meant DFA Bush, I'd certainly explore trades, but I suspect that first outing didn't drive up Bush's value any. I think Yost could have helped out Bush yesterday with a quicker hook. I understand that there are some games where you give up 5 runs in the first inning, and someone has to get you to the seventh --- but I think this game was very winnable if Bush would have been PH for in his last AB.