Overall, do you really think the Cubs are better than us?

[adambr2]

Most of the experts seem to, as almost all have agreed the Cubs are the heavy favorite to win the Central. But why?

 

Rotation: The Cubs rotation is highly regarded, and I'm not exactly sure why. Zambrano is a true ace, no question. But after that, it gets pretty average. Lilly is a good #2 if he pitches like his '07 form, not so much if he pitches like the rest of his career. He's likely to at least slightly regress. Gallardo is head and shoulders above Lilly as a #2. I still don't think converting Dempster is the answer, although that remains to be seen. Hill is pretty decent, but a middle of the rotation guy at best. Marquis is an alright bottom of the rotation guy, but I doubt he'd crack our rotation. Although Parra isn't proven, I'd definitely say we have the better rotation when Gallardo returns, for now it's pretty close.

 

Bullpen: This one is pretty close. I'd say Marmol is probably the best reliever in the Central, or at least one of the best. Both the Cubs and Brewers both have bullpens made up of pretty good, proven relievers with at least some reliable years in the past. The better overall bullpen may boil down to Gagne vs. Wood and who ends up being the better closer.

 

Lineup: I think the Brewers lineup has a pretty apparent advantage. The Lee/Fielder battle is close, but Prince will put up superior offense. Weeks is preferable to DeRosa in the lineup, same with Hardy over Theriot. I'll take Ramirez over Hall, at least on offense. Soriano is solid, but he's just not going to match Braun's production anymore, especially being on the wrong side of 30 and maybe older than we think. Cameron is elite defensively in CF, and gets the nod over Pie until Pie can show signs of production at the MLB level. Fukudome and Hart are pretty evenly matched in RF, and that's being pretty generous to Fukudome, given Hart's already proven production in 2007 in the MLB. Soto is still a question mark, but I'll say Soto over Kendall. Kendall so far appears to be just what we needed at catcher, though.

 

I'd say Pinella is a better in-game manager than Yost, but I don't expect that to be the deciding factor in a pennant race, and I do think Ned will learn from some of his '07 mistakes.

 

So what am I missing here? Top to bottom, I don't see how the Cubs are a superior team. I know I'm biased, but I don't see any obvious reason that they should be a near-unanimous pick to win the Central.

[Dragonbait]

My problem with everybody so high on the Cubs rotation....

 

1st in strike-outs last year...

MOST WALKS given up last year...

 

So why is thier rotation so good?

[adambr2]

That's very true. I guess for me, it's just a simple matter of the fact that I don't see how Lilly-Dempster-Hill-Marquis is a better #2-#5 rotation than any other MLB rotation. It just seems/looks like a very average rotation to me. Not bad, just average.

 

Z is a good ace, but he's not head and shoulders better than other NL aces.

[Gopher74]

My problem with everybody so high on the Cubs rotation....

 

1st in strike-outs last year...

MOST WALKS given up last year...

 

So why is thier rotation so good?

That is and always has been my issue as well. I've said that the Cubs rotation has fewer questions, but ours has more potential. I've never been a big fan of Hill, Lilly's a solid 3/4 type. Hell, SI, the mag that picked us 3rd said that the Cubs had an ace and then 4-4's after that. Yet everyone else seems to think it's Spahn and Sain without the rain.

 

[adambr2]

I've said that the Cubs rotation has fewer questions, but ours has more potential.

 

 

Completely agree with this assessment fan. The Cubs rotation doesn't really have question marks, but it's more of a "what you see is what you get" kind of rotation. It's not bad, but at the least, I'd expect Sheets, Gallardo, and Parra to be potentially better than anyone in their rotation besides Z, and Suppan and Villanueva are about the same level as the #2-#5 in the Cubs rotation IMO.

 

I still don't understand the logic in converting Dempster. I can't understand why they think he's a better option than Marshall, who obviously has more upside, too. It's not like Marshall was bad last year.

[wildbobu]

Not to mention that converting Dempster leaves them with Wood as their closer, which provides many many questions and problems.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Based on last year, the Cubs had a greater runs scored/allowed differential which does make it easier to win. That said, the Brewers need to be able to score when they're not bopping the long ball. So far, they look improved with Kendall and Gwynn for example. Can they do that with Cam batting second? You may have 6 - 100 strike out players in a row in that lineup. That may lead to major inconsistancy.

The rotation on the other hand, relies so heavily on the success of three reletively unprovens for the Brewers (Gallardo notwithstanding). I give the Cubs a edge in pitching because of;

 

1) Zambrano

2) Experience of the rotation vs. ours.

3) Marmol

4) Although we have experience in the pen, we need at least 4 relievers to have bounce back years (mota, gagne, torres, and turnblow). That's a lot to ask.

[Tbadder]

I think that the cubs are better, but our guys have much better upside. If enough of that upside kicks in the poor Cubbies are doomed.

[zzzmanwitz]

I really don't think I can put it any better than this cubs fan from nsbb.com put it.

 

"I've been saying that for awhile. They have an awesome leadoff man that should have a .400 OBP, 30 SB and 15-20 HRs at the end of the year. They have two hitters that will hit 40-50 HRs this year at 3 and 4. They have Corey Hart who will probably be a 20-20 guy with good OBP. Their only weak spot on offense is catcher, and Kendall looks comfortable hitting behind the pitcher.

 

As far as their pitching, ours might be slightly better right now, but their ceiling is much higher. I'd take Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Parra, Villenueva over our mess any day. Sheets and Z are about even. Sheets is probably better when healthy, Z tends to be erratic.

 

Our bullpen is better, but not by as much as last yaer, and their defense is better by moving Braun to LF. Not on par with ours, but again not a huge disparity as last year.

 

Oh and in 23 games, they will get a very good 30 HR potential hitter back into their lineup.

 

Injuries are the only things that will slow Milwaukee down this year."

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the "Cub rotation" is better talk stems from two things. The first is the relative durability of the Cub ace vs. the Brewer ace. Cramps aside, it's hard to argue that one until Sheets gets 30 or more starts.

 

The second is that Carlos Villanueva is still flying under the radar in part because the Brewers have taken nearly two years to believe their eyes instead of their radar guns. He's generated no buzz nationally and very little locally.

 

The fact is that Gallardo should turn out to be better than any Cub starter who's name starts from A to Y. Sheets is the equal of Zambrano if he can match his number of starts. The rest of the Brewer rotation should be at worst on par with the 3-4-5 guys the Cubs throw out there.

[Fatter than Joey]

Gallardo is head and shoulders above Lilly as a #2.

 

I don't this is an objective statement -- at least at this point in Yo's career.

 

I think also the Cubs D is much better.

 

Honestly, I think the teams are pretty even. I don't think it is unreasonable to think the Cubs are better.

[endaround]

Lilly was the Cubs best pitcher last year and Hill has very good stuff. Now either may easily regress this year (I'd expect it from Lilly to some degree) but to pretend that the Cubs rotation 1-3 (Hill being the real "#3" instead of Dempster) is good. 4 and 5 on the other hand are very questionable.

[Ennder]

I think the two teams are even on paper. Their pitching/defense is slightly better, our offense is slightly better. I picked the Brewers to take 1st for the first time ever this year but only by 1 game so it was far from a secure pick.

[lukevan]

To answer the thread title, no, I don't think the Cubs are better. Pretty much agree with everything quoted from that Cub fan. I'll take both our pitching and hitting (by a small margin) over Chicago.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Cubs will score some runs with the big boppers in their lineup.

 

However, the key to their team is the production of Pie, Soto, Therio, and Fukudome...if more than one of these everyday players struggle this season, that lineup is going to have holes that will enable their big hitters to get pitched around in game-changing situations.

 

All the rage has been about Fukudome so far this season...even though he didn't have a hit and K'd a couple of times yesterday. I remember another Japanese player that homered in his first two MLB at bats - his name was Kaz Matsui. Contrary to what everyone currently thinks, I think Fukudome still has alot of questions to answer, especially once opponents can get a decent scouting report on him.

 

Defensively, there's been nothing to be discouraged about so far, aside from Gagne not getting over to first in game on on Pie's infield "hit".

[splitterpfj]

I think the issue most teams have with the Brewers is the uncertainty of the starting rotation. Yes, it could be excellent, but with Sheets' health history, and the combined lack of MLB experience between Gallardo, Villanueva and Parra, prognosticators are left with Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush as the only guys they can project numbers for. That's a fair criticism of the Brewers, and I think anyone would tell you, if Sheets and the young guys come through, the Brewers become the favorites.

 

Picking the Cubs to win the division is one thing, but I've been baffled by the sudden love for them, and how they became a trendy World Series pick. That's a team with some excellent talent, but it's also an incomplete team. If Theriot leads off, they have a problem, if Soriano leads off, they have no 2 hitter, unless they move Fukudome, which leaves them with no 5 hitter...why do you think they tried so hard to get Brian Roberts?

 

Geovany Soto is supposed to be a difference maker too, as the only other significant change to their lineup, but if Pie can't hit at this level, there's no reason to pitch to him. Just work around Soto, and go after Pie and the pitcher, which makes the bottom third of their lineup useless. So far, Soto has a solo home run, because he doesn't see anything to hit with runners on.

 

Assuming average luck with injuries, I think the Cubs will have a decent rotation, and a decent bullpen, although I don't think either will dominate. They will do well during the stretches when their stars are hot, but they absolutely have some holes to fill at this point, which should have been obvious to the "experts." There's enough star power there to reach the playoffs, but that's no machine down there.

[Gone]

I think the two teams are even on paper. Their pitching/defense is slightly better, our offense is slightly better. I picked the Brewers to take 1st for the first time ever this year but only by 1 game so it was far from a secure pick.

 

I'm with End on this. Both teams have some great hitters in their lineup and are pretty solid 1-7. The big thing I see in the Brewers favor is their youth and that we know we probably haven't seen the best of Hart, Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, and Braun. There is really no telling how good this offense can be.

 

The Crew's starting pitching, bullpen and defense should be better this year as well. I guess I tend to compare this Brewers team to last years more than I worry about the Cubs. It's clear to me that this is a much better team than last years team and so far what I've seen from the Cubs is that they haven't improved as much as the "experts" think.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

I was listening to the Score yesterday afternoon and I believe that their opinions generally mirror those of the national media. They dismissed the Brewers bullpen as a pile of garbage and said that there isn't one legitimate major league closer on the roster. Jesse Rogers said that the Cubs' pen is much better than the Brewers and that's the reason the Cubs will eventually overtake the Brewers and win the division. The national media in general sees a bullpen full of rehab projects and dismisses it out of hand.

[jjfanec]

My issue with the Cubs team is what splitter mentioned. I feel like their lineup has more big questions marks. Can Pie hit at this level? Was Soto's year a fluke (Why are pundits quick to question Villanueva, Gallardo, and Parra but are completely in love with Soto)? Theriot just isnt that good. And obviously none of us really know how good Fukudome will be. Add those question marks to a rotation that to me is weak at 4 and 5. I just dont get all the love. Sure I think they are close with the Brewers, but World Series champs or runner-ups, I just don't see it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I overheard the same commentary on The Score yesterday about the Brewer bullpen...They acted the same way last season when Milwaukee was up 8.5 games and ended up being right, so they won't change their tune until the Brewers win the division.

 

As for the Brewer bullpen having no legitimate big league closer on their roster, you could argue that the Cubs have the same situation since moving Dempster into the rotation(who I questioned as a closer anyway with his walk rate). To dismiss the Brewers' bullpen out of hand is one thing, but to say the Cubs' pen is so much better because they have an arm injury waiting to happen as their closer, who happens to have quite a bit less experience closing games than Gagne, Turnbow, Riske, Mota, AND Torres is pretty ignorant.

[splitterpfj]

I'd ask those at The Score, "If the Brewers' bullpen is garbage, and still, the Cubs haven't beaten them....what does that say about the Cubs?"

[Thurston Fluff]

A lot of this season hinges on whether Villy and Parra are hidden gems or diamonds in the rough. If they are as good as I think they will be head and shoulders above the Cubs rotation.

The Cubs still have an advantage in the pen but a much smaller one than last year. We may actually have a little more depth in the pen than they do but Marmol makes them more dominant late.

Pinnella had 125 differant lineup last season and has already started to tinker with it this year. That may have been ok in the honeymoon period of year one but may get old fairly quick this season. His history has seen his team improve the second year only once with Tampa. I think some of that is because emotional rah rah guys can wear on players a little. Especially veterans teams like he has now.

[RightFieldCoder]

So says a NSBB fan (2nd responce)

"It's like I said, the only reason the Brewers were able to beat us today is because they're a better team."