IBB as game strategy

[logan82]

I was wondering why it is that sac bunting is looked down on, but IBB gets a free pass?(sorry, couldn't help myself) I get the feeling that most people dislike sac bunting, but very few seem to complain about IBB. From what I have seen IBB almost never gives the pitching team a very big advantage. It lets them dictate some match ups, but wouldn't they be better served by changing pitchers instead? I am going to put a little more thought into this , but was wondering what others thought.

[TooLiveBrew]

Imo it all depends. If it's earlier in the game, you're obviously not going to want to hook your SP. Later in the game, I'd guess swapping pitchers out is the better move, but teams can counter with a second pinch-hitter. Not saying that's reason to just toss go with IBBs, just the first wrinkle that came to mind.

 

I do think the general concept of 'setting up the force play' (aka adding another baserunner to the equation) is the kind of optimistic managing that I get on Yost so much for employing.

[endaround]

It doesn't get a free pass, its just obvious that its bad idea. This was already pretty much well known when people said, hey if we walked McGwire all teh time he'd only have 1.00o OPS so we'd be ahead! At that time they basically showed that that IBB's are limited things-walking a meaningless runner to set up a double play. In gerneal walkign teh #8 hitter to get to the pitcher is foolish because most #8 hitter suck so you're giving a free base to a guy who would very likely make an out.

[logan82]

When is walking a runner meaningless though? Putting runners on base always helps the batting team increase their run scoring potential.

[endaround]

When the winning run is already on 2B. So in a tie game bottom of the 9th/extra innings man on 2B or bottom of the 9th/extra innings 1 run lead men on 2B and 3B the IBB is almost always the right play. Depending upon some other variables (platoon advantages, going from an MVP candidate to a catcher who can't hit or run (though what kind of manager would do that?)) can kind of add a few more instances, but in general thats it.

 

EDIT: I just thought of something, all this was done before WP% became popular. There tends to be a fairly discrete jump in WP from like 3 to 4 run lead but little from 4 to 5 run lead (ie it doesn't change WP that much if a team has a 4 run lead or a 5 run lead). That means there might be many more instances for a trailing team to use IBB because the difference of that on run in WP terms is meaningless. I don't know if anybody has looked at that.

[logan82]

What brought this on is the top of the 9th inning in Monday's game. I thought both managers mismanaged that half of the inning with the sac bunt and IBB to Fielder. I thought the Cubs would have been better off either bringing in a lefty to start the inning or a righty and then going to a lefty to face Gwynn and Fielder instead of walking Fielder to get a righty/righty matchup with Braun. I know the splits of a righty facing Fielder compared to Braun is pretty big, but I would think that you would want to limit the base runners as much as possible.

[Fatter than Joey]

I was wondering why it is that sac bunting is looked down on, but IBB gets a free pass?(sorry, couldn't help myself) I get the feeling that most people dislike sac bunting, but very few seem to complain about IBB.

 

If you compare the two events, outs > bases. In a generic situation -- I think a position player (Corey Hart for example) sacrificing himself has a more negative impact, than a team issuing him a free pass.

[logan82]

Fatter than Joey wrote:

If you compare the two events, outs > bases. In a generic situation -- I think a position player (Corey Hart for example) sacrificing himself has a more negative impact, than a team issuing him a free pass.

Run expectancies seem to show that they are pretty equal. IBB seems to make the shift to multi run innings while sac bunts make the shift to one or no run innings. In the specific case I mentioned the win expectancy was almost identical before the sac bunt and after the IBB. The odds of a no run inning were almost the same as well. Under 1% difference.

[rluzinski]

Here's MGL trying to sort through all the variables:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/ibb_redux/

[1992casey]

In a situation like endaround describes in reply #4, a walk would actually have negative offensive value: it sets up a force play at every base when the offensive team only needs one run anyway. IBBing a batter with a runner only on second would be similar, but not as extreme.

 

Of course, a manager still has to factor in who he'd be pitching to instead of the guy he walks.

[endaround]

In a situation like endaround describes in reply #4, a walk would actually have negative offensive value: it sets up a force play at every base when the offensive team only needs one run anyway. IBBing a batter with a runner only on second would be similar, but not as extreme.

 

Of course, a manager still has to factor in who he'd be pitching to instead of the guy he walks.

And Dusty Baker actually screwed that up by not walking Kendall before Weeks' game winning hit

 

[mothershipconnection]

Like bunting, IBB, depends on the crappiness of hitters. Having a crappy hitter but good bunter bunt is relatively favorable in many situations like walking a great hitter to get to a very crappy one. It also depends on how many runs you're playing for, like the bunt. If there's a man on second and you have your RH closer against an elite LH hitter in a 1-run game with 2 out, it's more favorable to walk him to get to a RH'er who's also a weaker hitter.

[logan82]

We finally get the payoff from Russ's post. Two parter no less.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-to-walk-part-1/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-to-walk-part-2/

[sbrylski]

In fact, in the AL from 1998 to 2007 with the bases loaded and one out, batters had a .359 wOBA (weighted on-base average), as compared to an overall average wOBA of .343. Compare that to the average wOBA with runners on second and third, and one out: .348

 

First paragraph, I disagree. Its not "tougher" to pitch with the bases on, its just that worse pitchers load the bases more often. When you look at a situation that the Jake Peavey's of the league are rarely in, of course the pitching stats will be worse. Maybe I'm being picky.

[brewjihad]

I'm surprised no one pointed out this:

 

Josh Kalk's Intentional Walk Tool

 

It gives you a value of an intentional walk in any situation.

[dixieflatline]

It hasn't really been looking at usage rates though. I am glad you liked it.

 

-josh