Is Yost using the pen properly?

[Ennder]

I was at the game and sat right next to the Brewers bullpen, and w/ 2 outs in the 9th I saw Hamel pick up the bullpen phone and he told Turnbow to warm up, and before getting up Riske got the last out. I thought that was kind of weird.

 

Riske probably has some sort of maximum pitches limit and he was approaching it.

[BuckyTuba]

Just remember the pen is mightier this year.

[djoctagone]

Is Yost using the pen properly?

are you wanting him to draw inspiration from hannibal lecter?

[Thurston Fluff]

In the first game I heard some complain that Ned should have just let Mota finish the game since he was pitching so well. Today we see complaints about letting Riske in to finish the game. Sounds like a no win situation for some fan's favorite puching bag. The whole idea behind the number of veteran relievers was so they had the versatility to use them in differant ways. While Riske has been used twice the rest of the pen has remained fresh and ready to go.

 

If we're all agreed here that Riske is a better option than Turnbow with the game on the line

 

He might be better but he was in the game already and had played in both games so I think Ned knew he would not be using riske today under any circumstances. Given the circumstance why burn two pitchers instead of one? Trunbow was unscored upon in 85% of his appearances last year so it's not like he a bad option in a close game. If all our relievers hold the oppostion to zero runs 85% of the time we'll have a pretty solid core of late inning guys.

[wisportswriter]

Is Yost using the pen properly?

are you wanting him to draw inspiration from hannibal lecter?

There were 2 posts in this thread that stand out above the others: Andrew's dad, who said, "There are not really "rights and wrongs" about bullpen use." (Not that you'd know that by reading this site.)

 

And D.J.'s. Well played, octagone. Disturbing memory, but well-played nonetheless.

[Fatter than Joey]

But man, it's never too early, or going to good to hate on Yostie, is it?

 

I think this statement is not appropriate for what the original post intended to discuss. The original poster wondered if pitching Riske 2 innings in a game that was "out of reach" by the save definition was a good idea. My first thought was "where's Turnbow?" -- I think the better idea would have been to get Turnbow in the books for 2008.

 

As Al points out there are a couple of a approaches that a manager can take, just because you think using Riske for 2 innings yesterday was a bad idea, doesn't mean the Yost hating has begun.

[Fatter than Joey]

Trunbow was unscored upon in 85% of his appearances last year so it's not like he a bad option in a close game. If all our relievers hold the oppostion to zero runs 85% of the time we'll have a pretty solid core of late inning guys.

 

This statement is really not accurate -- at least to support the conclusions drawn. I went through Turnbows game log and looked at every appearance. Click here

 

There were 16 appearances of 77 I deemed "bad" -- That gives him about a 79% "success rate". Turnbow was scored on in 15 appearances which is actually 80.5% and not 85%. Now I don't consider every time a reliever gives up a run to be a bad outing -- however, Turnbow gave up multiple runs in 10 of the 15 times he gave up runs -- and I am talking about some pretty crooked numbers like 3,4 and 5 -- so roughly 13% of the time Turnbow gave up multiple runs.

 

If we assume that the Brewers need a reliever for the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning -- and we have 3 relievers that are 2007 Turnbow Clones -- we will give up 2+ runs in our BP 35% of the time -- that's a lot of losses just by your BP.

 

Also as a side note -- Turnbow has a few bad appearances in 2007 where he pitched 0IP walked 2 batters and got the hook -- I don't think it is fair to include those games as successes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just remember the pen is mightier this year.

 

You're sittin' on a gold mine Yost!

[bcf5575]

Using riske for 2 innings was fine - as long as he doesnt pitch again until fri or sat.

 

The only thing I thought of was that with a 6 run lead with only 3 outs to go sounded like prime garbage time for McClung. but I suppose "garbage time" is pretty debateable so I am fine with Riske staying in...

[BuckyTuba]

Thank you TooLiveBrew.... the only person who would acknowledge my silliness in this thread.

[Gopher74]

But man, it's never too early, or going to good to hate on Yostie, is it?

 

I think this statement is not appropriate for what the original post intended to discuss. The original poster wondered if pitching Riske 2 innings in a game that was "out of reach" by the save definition was a good idea. My first thought was "where's Turnbow?" -- I think the better idea would have been to get Turnbow in the books for 2008.

 

As Al points out there are a couple of a approaches that a manager can take, just because you think using Riske for 2 innings yesterday was a bad idea, doesn't mean the Yost hating has begun.

The Yost hating began before the season even started.

 

There were threads about how Yost was going to ruin this season because of Haudricourts blog suggesting that Villanueva or Parra wouldn't make the rotation and how Yost was lying to us because we're suppose to be in a win now mode.

There have been complaints about Yost hitting the pitcher 8th.

There have been threads about Prince and Braun's spot in the order, Hall and Hart, Gwynn, ect...ect...almost all riping into Yost for his moves.

 

The vent thread was already up and going before the season-even-started.

 

The statement was obviously a bit tongue in cheek, but there's a whole lot of truth behind it. If we had someone else managing our team right now, for instance if Simmons had gotten the job, nobody would even be thinking about the way he's handled the pen thus far.

 

I just think you have to put those wins away and not leave any doubt vs the Cubs, and with a 4 run lead, it wasn't a given by any means.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Gopher I doubt you'll see a bigger Yost supporter on this site than I am so I certainly share some of your sentiment on the quickness to bash him or to blame him for things that are not his doing. That said there are things he does that I don't like. Batting the pitcher 8th for example. I think we can debate the merit of what he does and whether we like it or not separatly from whether we like him overall as a manager.

Turnbow was scored on in 15 appearances which is actually 80.5% and not 85%.

come on FTJ I got a 8 and a 5 in my equation as well. Isn't that close enough?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
I obviously overstated myself. I guess the best way to put it would be that guys like Turnbow are not useless by any stretch of the imagination and if we would have had a few more of at least his talent level last year we would have won the division. This year he will still be usefull IMO but we do have better options.

[Fatter than Joey]

Batting the pitcher 8th for example. I think we can debate the merit of what he does and whether we like it or not separatly from whether we like him overall as a manager.

 

Well put. This was exactly the point I was trying to make, backupC just chose to make it better than I did. We are all armchair managers, and I think the decision to pitch Riske 2 innings in a non-save game was an interesting strategy point of discussion that could be debated without bringing Yost into the thread. I think Yost could be outmanaged by most inanimate objects with movable parts, but I certainly want to talk about general managerial strategy without getting into Yost's contract status.

 

I guess the best way to put it would be that guys like Turnbow are not useless by any stretch of the imagination

 

I agree 100% -- I think Turnbow, if applied correctly could be useful.

 

and if we would have had a few more of at least his talent level last year we would have won the division.

 

I disagree -- I think one Turnbow is enough -- Personally I think the key was more in our team defense rather than the BP.

[DrWood]

Trunbow was unscored upon in 85% of his appearances last year so it's not like he a bad option in a close game. If all our relievers hold the oppostion to zero runs 85% of the time we'll have a pretty solid core of late inning guys.

 

This statement is really not accurate -- at least to support the conclusions drawn. I went through Turnbows game log and looked at every appearance. Click here

 

If we assume that the Brewers need a reliever for the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning -- and we have 3 relievers that are 2007 Turnbow Clones -- we will give up 2+ runs in our BP 35% of the time -- that's a lot of losses just by your BP.

Actually, I think that your figuring is off the mark. First of all, if you assume the results for 7th, 8th, and 9th are independent, the number is closer to 34% of the time than 35%. Second, those outcomes aren't independent--big innings are more likely to be followed by big innings than would be expected by random, so it would be less frequent than that. Third, if my pen is giving up 2 or more runs per 3 innings in less than (probably) 30% of the games, that's really not bad. Let's say 30% of 8 ERA and 70% of 2 ERA equals a total ERA of 3.8, which I would certainly take.

[logan82]

Gopher74 wrote:

The statement was obviously a bit tongue in cheek, but there's a whole lot of truth behind it. If we had someone else managing our team right now, for instance if Simmons had gotten the job, nobody would even be thinking about the way he's handled the pen thus far.

That I disagree with. If I thought the complaining about the manager would stop I would have advocated Yost's firing yesterday. I have however come to the conclusion that no mattter who the manager is, somebody is going to complain. Most of the disagreements are opinion based, but are presented as fact.

[Fatter than Joey]

First of all, if you assume the results for 7th, 8th, and 9th are independent, the number is closer to 34% of the time than 35%.

 

I am not sure this is significant -- I was using rough numbers

 

Second, those outcomes aren't independent--big innings are more likely to be followed by big innings than would be expected by random, so it would be less frequent than that.

 

I cannot understand the point you are making here.

 

Third, if my pen is giving up 2 or more runs per 3 innings in less than (probably) 30% of the games, that's really not bad.

 

The other assumption I made is that they are giving up 2 runs, yet finishing the IP -- in reality they would not be able to get three outs on average.

 

I am quite certain that if you had 3 Derrick Turnbow 2007 clones working in the BP, 7th 8th and 9th -- that ERA would be over 5.

[DrWood]

Second, those outcomes aren't independent--big innings are more likely to be followed by big innings than would be expected by random, so it would be less frequent than that.

 

I cannot understand the point you are making here.

 

I am quite certain that if you had 3 Derrick Turnbow 2007 clones working in the BP, 7th 8th and 9th -- that ERA would be over 5.

How do 3 guys that have an ERA under 5 add up to an ERA over 5?

 

The independence thing is an assumption you used to get the 34(or 35) %. It's not true. If they are not independent--bad innings tend to cluster within a game rather than scatter across all games--then the blowup happens less frequently.

 

 

[Fatter than Joey]

If they are not independent--bad innings tend to cluster within a game rather than scatter across all games--then the blowup happens less frequently.

 

I don't buy this. You are saying that Turnbow is more likely to have a bad inning if another pitcher already had a bad inning?

[DrWood]

bad innings are much more likely vs. philadelphia than they are san francisco.

[uwisfan]

I admit that perhaps I jumped the gun a bit on calling Yost out. If Torres is capable of being a long man, then the bullpen is in great shape right now, just using up Torres & Shouse today. The fact that used Shouse to face more than a single batter, and got by with 3 pitchers, when CV left early makes me think someone is giving Yost a few pointers.

[logan82]

uwisfan wrote:

The fact that used Shouse to face more than a single batter, and got by with 3 pitchers, when CV left early makes me think someone is giving Yost a few pointers.

or maybe we have pitchers that can go more than an inning this year.

[zzzmanwitz]

when CV left early makes me think someone is giving Yost a few pointers.

 

Or maybe Yost is becoming a quality manager through experience.

[logan82]

when CV left early makes me think someone is giving Yost a few pointers. .

 

I figured this would happen. If Yost got better as a manager it would be all because of Simmons and if he didn't it would be because he didn't listen to Simmons.

[Oldcity]

CV left early? The dude gave up four straight hits without recording an out.

[jazzytrav]

CV was at 104 pitches. He didn't leave early.