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4/3/08 Brewers (Bush) at Cubs (Dempster): 1:20 PM CDT

wOOgiE22

By wOOgiE22,
in Archived Game Threads

bacon06 College Ball

bacon06

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I'm loving Jason Kendall...after the piece they just had on him really makes me more thankful we have him. You think Johnny Estrada left the hotel before 8 to get to the park? NO WAY!!

Estrada probably had to leave his hotel by before 8 to make it to the park by game time.

 

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Brewtacular Draft Eligible

Brewtacular

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alright...time for the game and time for me to avoid the interweb til i can watch on my dvr. Nobody look up my information online, call my cell phone, and yell the score at me. If you get my work# its ok though!!!

 

Go Bush..you sir are the decider..operation Cubbi meltdown intact.

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GoudaBrew Draft Eligible

GoudaBrew

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I was just about to mention that. Darren Sutton talked about it, so I figured I wouldn't be jinxing it. So glad I started him!

You don't have an Adam Wainwright. Easily the best gentlemen in all of sports. You don't have the amount of real good old American men like the Cardinals do. Holliday, Wainwright, Skip, Berkman those 4 guys are incredible people

 

GhostofQuantrill

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GoudaBrew Draft Eligible

GoudaBrew

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It never fails. I blame Sutton.

You don't have an Adam Wainwright. Easily the best gentlemen in all of sports. You don't have the amount of real good old American men like the Cardinals do. Holliday, Wainwright, Skip, Berkman those 4 guys are incredible people

 

GhostofQuantrill

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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rlunziski, I believe you are incorrect about making up the projection gap. I noticed this last year and it makes more sense when you think about it. If you figure out the expected wins for the Brewers in this series given each teams projected records and the home field to the Cubs it at worst for the Crew would work out to only say 1.3 wins. Which means that if they lost today they'd only gain 0.7 wins over projections. And if they sweep it still only 1.7 wins and I think the closest I saw them was 2 games. If you also calculate how much ground the Cubs have lost I think it works out then only if we sweep.

 

Depending on the projections you use, the Brewers probably haven't completely made it up yet but a sweep will put them ahead. As you pointed out, it's not just the Brewers beating their projection but also the Cubs not meeting theirs. According to some of the more popular projection systems, the Cubs were expected to finish the season with a 3.2 game lead over the 2nd place Brewers in the NL Central:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/03/brewers-chances-of-winning-central.html

 

With the Cubs being the home team and being the statistically stronger one (if only very slightly), they have something like a 56% chance of winning each game (yes, I'm ignoring pitching matchups). After two games, here's the projected standings for the two teams:

 

Cubs: 1.12 - .88 (.24 game lead)

Brewers: .88 - 1.12

 

The Cubs have an expected lead of .24 but are actually behind the Brewers by 2 games. They are currently 2.24 games behind their projected lead.

 

After 3 games, the projections have the Cubs and the Brewers record as:

 

Cubs: 1.68 - 1.32 (.36 game lead)

Brewers: 1.32 - 1.68

 

If the Cubs lose today and get swept, they'll be 3.36 games behind their projection and the Brewers will be the NL Central favorites. A Cubs win today puts them 1.24 games behind their projection and still the favorites.

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