5/14/07 Brewers (Bush) @ Phillies (Moyer): 6:05 PM CDT

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

Cubs Lost. Pittsburgh gains a game on us...

 

We knew we weren't going to sweep Philly... I think we come back and kick the Phillies' hard tomorrow....

[IslandsAC]

well this has been an interesting evening. the power went out at our house during the second inning. thinking that it would come back on, i just read for a while. then, around the 6th inning i took a 9volt out of my smoke detector and put it in my clock radio. i sat out on the front porch and listened to the meltdown from a staticy uecker with the radio pressed against my ear. painful loss, but thats the way some of them are i suppose.

 

the power just came back on, just under 4 hours later.

[Team Canada]

I can accept the fact that relievers are going to have a bad day. What I can't accept is a manager allowing one reliever to give up 4 runs when you have the lead. That's ridiculous. If someone gives up a couple runs, it's time to try someone else. If they fail, then so be it, but it's just idiotic to allow one pitcher to lose the game.

[Brewers77]

We will never go anywhere with Ned managing. His decisions seem to be getting worse and worse.

 

I just used this as my main focus but the entire thread is comical. Someone did ask a good question. We use TBow in a 4 run game and we are wasting him. He comes in and gets lit up and now its on yost. You people need to realize it's possible to simple lose a game. There doesn't always need to be a reason or someone to blame.

 

We knew that this day would come and our tandem of Bow and Cordero would be disrupted and they would not complete the job. Settle down, get two of the next 3 and lets get out of the east. I seriously do not see what Ned did wrong. He would be to blame no matter what he did, during any game we lose. He has Bow and Cordero and that is about it for good option out of the pen. For the people who didnt like his method, what would you do? I would love to hear it. Spurling? That is about the only other option and its not a good one.

 

We lost a game and are in first place, by a bunch. Are you seriously that angry? How long have we been fans and now we are in suicide mode after our 8th inning guy gets hit around. Seriously, come one.

[jason21nl]

its games like these that are given away that are going to come back and bite us in the end. Truth is, this team did get fat on some bad teams, and thank god for that.

[Baldkin]

"4 run leads are for Spurling and Dessens"

 

I agree.

 

They can get MLB RH hitters out. Brian Shouse can't.

 

There was absolutely no reason for Shouse to be in the game to face RH hitters.

 

If you don't want to use DBow, put Spurling in to start the inning, and have Shouse face Utley.

 

It was okay to "Get Turnbow some work" a week ago to pitch him with an 8 run lead in the 8th inning.

 

But not tonight with a 4 run lead, he can't start the inning?

 

Heck, he wasn't even warming up in the pen at the start of the inning?

[strawbossisevil]

Shouse hadn't pitched in a long time. He was probably the freshest guy in the pen. I have no problem seeing if you can get an inning out of him. Everyone else in the pen had been used quite a bit more lately, including Spurling/Dessens. Even bad relievers rarely cough up four run leads, it just doesn't happen.

 

Plus like everyone said, even if T-bow and Cordero had a few days off, that doesn't mean you don't rest them every chance you get so you can use them in those tight two or one run ballgames, which so far this season we've had a lot of.

 

Sometimes you just lose a game, managing is taking calculated gambles, and tonight the gamble didn't pay off, although about 95%+ it would, tonight was one of those exceptions. That's the way it is, its a tough loss, but every team in the majors has one of these on occasion. No need to go overboard with the ranting and raving about firing Yost, when his players really hung him out to dry tonight. Seriously, I think so many people on this site think the Brewers record would be perfect if we had a manager other than Yost, which is just absolutely ridiculous.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

My first thought tonight "here we go again."

 

This feels like a sweep, like the ones that went before at PNC. I hope to God I'm wrong, but I can't help but think this will start a slide.

[The Big Cheese]

I couldn't agree more...I have that same exact feeling.

 

This is the type of game that has sent the Brewers of the past 15 years into "fades" that they don't seem to recover from.

 

We shall see what this team is made of, but I am very wary at this point tonight...

[Fatter than Joey]

I seriously do not see what Ned did wrong.

 

Take off the goggles.

 

He would be to blame no matter what he did, during any game we lose.

 

You always say this sort of thing after Ned does something stupid and then people call him out on it.

 

We have lost 3 out of our last 4. After the 2 losses to the Mets, there was very little grumbling about Yost. It is absolutely not fair or true to say that Ned gets blamed for all of our losses.

 

We take a 4 run lead into the 8th with a well-rested pen. We give up 6 runs, and our best option, sits on the sidelines. It is entirely reasonable to question what Ned did last night.

[RobDeer45]

First off lets all calm down, this isn't game 7 of the world series. Yes it's unfortunate that we lost and it was a tough one but it's not the end of the world.

 

Second of all, I did not agree with leaving T-Bow in when it got to a one run game. I think the error was there.

 

I don't think it was wrong to bring in Shouse. I didn't verify it but Ned said the first two guys were hitting worse against lefties.

 

I think too many of you look to blame Ned for a loss and try to find everything he did wrong and never give him any credit when we win. We are in first place, not last! Give him some credit and some slack. Some times you just loose and it's not anyone's fault. Like another poster said, no matter what he does in that situation, someone would cry about it.

 

Now let's go get the next one.

[olliegjw]

Quote:

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From today's JS:

 

"I was just going on matchups with a four-run lead," Yost said. "Looking at (Aaron) Rowand, his numbers have about a 130-point split between left and right, and we were looking for 'Shousie' to throw a ground ball and maybe get a couple outs there with 'Shousie' and have Turnbow throw the ninth with a four-run lead."

 

Rowand was hitting .381 against right-handers and just .256 against lefties, and Shane Victorino hit right-handers to the tune of .303 but left-handers just .234.

---

 

Here's the reason Shouse was brought in to start the 8th. It didn't work this time, but there was a valid reason for it. He still brought Turnbow in with plenty of room for error. Shouse and T-Bow did not get the job done tonight.

 

It's rather comical to see all the knee-jerk reactions to a loss. When 2 relievers don't do their jobs, it's Yost's fault.

[Fatter than Joey]

It didn't work this time, but there was a valid reason for it. He still brought Turnbow in with plenty of room for error. Shouse and T-Bow did not get the job done tonight.

 

The fact that Rowand has struggled against LHP is not good enough reason to run Shouse out there against him. Shouse is what he is, and he has never demostrated an ability to get RHers out.

 

I understand that in Tbow's case he didn't get the job done, and he got pulled to end the inning -- but there is a point where a manager needs to realize that his pitcher is done, hopefully next time Ned will do something before run #6 in the inning scores.

 

As a side note -- I really hope that this illustrates that Tbow is a few notches behind CoCo as far as closers go, and never should be considered an adequate replacement.

[Team Canada]

Ned's reasoning brings up an interesting question: What stats have priority, pitcher splits or batter splits? He was looking at the batters' lefty splits, but clearly missed Shouse's horrible righty splits. Personally, I think I'd give more weight to the pitcher's splits.

[Bruce Ciskie]

Quote:

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Here's the reason Shouse was brought in to start the 8th. It didn't work this time, but there was a valid reason for it. He still brought Turnbow in with plenty of room for error. Shouse and T-Bow did not get the job done tonight.

---

 

And it's the reason I mentioned what I mentioned in the Vent thread.

 

If Yost thinks that poor splits versus lefties is a good reason to let Brian Shouse face a right-handed hitter, then he clearly doesn't know his own bullpen well enough to manage it effectively. I don't care if Shane Victorino is hitless on the season against lefties. You're better off putting Capuano in to pitch the day after he started than you are letting Shouse pitch against a righty.

 

Now, you're absolutely right that Shouse and Turnbow didn't get the job done. But neither did the manager. His job is put his team in the best possible position to win the game. Instead, his moves clearly hurt his team's chances at a win.

 

I'm not one to blame EVERYTHING on Yost (as I said in the other thread, he made absolutely the right move pulling Bush when he did, no matter the reasons for him doing it), but the eighth inning falls on his shoulders.

[Bruce Ciskie]

Quote:

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Ned's reasoning brings up an interesting question: What stats have priority, pitcher splits or batter splits? He was looking at the batters' lefty splits, but clearly missed Shouse's horrible righty splits. Personally, I think I'd give more weight to the pitcher's splits.

---

 

I don't know if there is a cut-and-dried right answer, but I'm guessing that the human reaction in that spot would be to look at the opposing player's splits, because you see your guy pitch all the time and you think you know what he's capable of without looking at stats.

 

Just a thought.

[mls4]

I don't mind Yost's decision to start the 8th inning with Shouse based on the 4-run lead and the splits mentioned. What I do hate is not bringing in Cordero once it is realized that Turnbow does not have his good stuff. It really bothers me when a team loses a close game without using their best pitcher. Put him in with the game on the line, worry about the 9th inning when (if) the 9th inning comes.

[Fatter than Joey]

What stats have priority, pitcher splits or batter splits? He was looking at the batters' lefty splits, but clearly missed Shouse's horrible righty splits. Personally, I think I'd give more weight to the pitcher's splits.

 

I think there are a few factors...

 

Here would have been my approach.

 

1.) I look at Rowands splits for this year, I notice he is struggling against LHP, I say "that's odd" and then I look at his career stats and see that he actually hits LHP pretty hard.

 

2.) Then you look at Shouse and you look to see if there is any indication that he can get RHers out -- I think his WHIP is 1.9 or something like that.

 

3.) Then you ask yourself -- Is Shouse a guy that is hard to hit? -- i.e., does he have a 12-6 curve or a 98 mph heater? Nope, Shouse gets LHers out with his arm location more than anything.

 

I see no compelling reason that Shouse should ever face a RH hitter.

 

To answer your question TC, I will echo Bruce, and say that Ned should weigh on the splits of his pitcher in this case -- as he should know his pitcher better than a Phillies hitter -- this is to say, if he went to stats.com and made his decision based on stats, and not knowing that Shouse can't get RHers out -- that is a scary thought. There is enough intuitive evidence that Shouse just doesn't have the tools to get RHers out.

 

I wouldn't say that it is a pitcher v. hitter decision, -- rather a Brewer v. Phillie decision -- and Ned should put the weight behind the splits of his player as he should know them better. This could mean using or not using a player, i.e., Ned should have looked at Shouse's WHIP against RHers, and trusted that rather than Rowands 2007 slump against LHers and saved Shouse to pitch against the tough lefty in Utley.

[JohnBriggs12]

In answer to several posters points about it being a 4 run lead, hence okay to use a guy like Shouse (WHIP as a Brewer in excess of 1.5).

 

Guys, Citizens Bank Park is Coors Field East. A 4 run lead in that park is nothing. Estrada hit his home run one handed. Hardy's wasn't hit all that well either. Leads evaporate quickly there (see Cubs/Phillies on Saturday). That is what should have been in Yost's mind.

 

Sure Turnbow could have struggled starting an inning. But Yost might have reacted quickly enough to get Cordero in there had T-Bow struggled.

 

What everyone is ignoring is that the lead should have been greater than 4 runs. What is Counsell doing trying to steal 3rd base with no outs? Did he do that on his own or on instructions from Yost?

[olliegjw]

Quote:

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2.) Then you look at Shouse and you look to see if there is any indication that he can get RHers out -- I think his WHIP is 1.9 or something like that.

---

 

So even if Shouse pitches worse than his career average, and gives up 2 runners in the 8th, the Brewers are still up by 2 runs at worst. A WHIP of 1.9 is almost 2 runners per inning. So, in order to blow a 4 run lead, he'd have to be more than twice as bad as his career average.

 

Then, Turnbow comes in. He needs to keep his ERA under 18.00 for the inning. Some are saying that the runners on base had him rattled. What, he had to pitch out of the stretch? Oh, that's right, he already does that all the time anyway. S

[olliegjw]

Quote:

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What everyone is ignoring is that the lead should have been greater than 4 runs. What is Counsell doing trying to steal 3rd base with no outs? Did he do that on his own or on instructions from Yost?

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Was it a bad move? Yes. Does that mean they'd automatically have one more run, or more, had he not gotten thrown out? Absolutely not.

 

It is kind of ignorant to believe that everything would have happened the same way, had Counsell not been thrown out stealing. Pitch selection, and batter's approach at the plate would have been different.

[Fatter than Joey]

So, in order to blow a 4 run lead, he'd have to be more than twice as bad as his career average.

 

He was infinitely as bad as he gave up 2 runners with getting an out. If he would have gotten one out his WHIP would have 6.

[olliegjw]

Quote:

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He was infinitely as bad as he gave up 2 runners with getting an out. If he would have gotten one out his WHIP would have 6.

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Exactly, so even if he got one out, he would have performed more than 3 times worse than his normal outing vs. right handed hitters. How is this Yost's fault again?

[Fatter than Joey]

How is this Yost's fault again?

 

Yost brought him into the game.

[olliegjw]

Quote:

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How is this Yost's fault again?

 

Yost brought him into the game.

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Yep, and it was Shouse who performed well below his career norms, even against righties. Shouse didn't get the job done. Turnbow didn't get the job done. If either of them pitch even half-way decent, they would have gotten to the 9th with the lead. Who else could have pitched? Don't even tell me Spurling. The guy is worse than Aquino, and we all know how that turned out.