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5/14/07 Brewers (Bush) @ Phillies (Moyer): 6:05 PM CDT


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Beat the Phillies!

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Peter Gammons, regarding the Phillies....

 

Their starters have 17 quality starts, better only than the Nationals and Marlins, and the .791 OPS against them is better only than Colorado. Their starters are 13-12, 4.85, an ERA that betters only Washington and Florida. The bullpen is 2-7, 4.08, an ERA better only than Cincinnati and Colorado.

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I love the picture of Eaton.

 

Apparently he also specializes in bird calls. Who knew?

 

Edit: I know Woogie isn't here, but could we somehow change his post so that it no longer says "Beat the Mets!" We want the Mets to win these next four http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

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The Phillies rotation got bumped up for Cole Hamels last start altering the matchups for this series. In case no one has the power of Woogie, here are the actual matchups for this series.

 

Dave Bush (3-3, 5.73) @ Jamie Moyer (4-2, 3.00)

 

Claudio Vargas (3-0, 2.65) @ Adam Eaton (3-3, 7.43)

 

Jeff Suppan (5-3, 3.00) @ Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.46)

 

Ben Sheets (3-2, 4.10) @ Freddy Garcia (1-2, 5.17)

 

The Brewers are going to need to get the Phillies starting pitcher's pitch counts up quick so they can get to their depleted bullpen, so work the count (yes you Mench, Estrada).

 

Prediction: WWLW

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Quote:
To make matters worse, if I counted correctly, Bad Dave Bush is scheduled to show up tomorrow...blech

 

How do you figure out the good Dave Bush vs Bad Dave Bush Schedule?? Because since his first start his had 5 out of 6 very solid starts.....

 

 

May. 8 WAS W 6-4 6.2 innings 3 earned runs (good)

May. 3 PIT L 4-2 7.0 innings 4 earned runs (good)

Apr. 28 @HOU L 10-1 5.1 innings 7 earned runs (Bad)

Apr. 22 HOU W 4-3 8.0 innings 3 earned runs (good)

Apr. 17 @CIN L 11-5 5.0 innings 4 earned runs (good)

Apr. 11 @FLA W 5-2 6.0 innings 1 earned run (great)

Apr. 6 CHC L 9-3 6.0 innings 6 earned runs (Bad)

 

If you take a quality start as 6 innings and 3 runs or fewer (assuming the offense scored more than 3 and Wise/Turnbow/and Cordero close it down) for the Brewers starting pitchers.....then Bush has....

 

3 Quality starts and one start where he gave up 4 ERs instead of 3 in 7 innings. So that's 4 very good outings out of his last 6.

 

So back to my question.....you say "Bad Dave Bush is scheduled to show up tomorrow"....his trend has been....

 

Bad (1st start)

Good

Good

Good

Bad

Good

Good (last start)

 

So what's you're schedule or pattern that you see?? There really isn't one. You have no substantiated evidence other than your gut tells you that he pitches bad a lot instead of actually looking at the game log and realizing that the guy has pitched well in 5 out of his 7 starts and 5 out of his last 6.

 

I say 4-1 win for the Crew tonight.

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How do you figure out the good Dave Bush vs Bad Dave Bush Schedule?? Because since his first start his had 5 out of 6 very solid starts.....

 

I think in the past, most labeled his April 17th start in Cincy as bad...giving him a bad/good back and forth through his first 6 starts. He's been good in his last two so that kinda throws off the pattern.

 

Citizens isnt a ballpark you'd imagine to Bush to throw a gem at, but the number of ground ball out compared to fly ball outs in his last two starts (21-11) are promising. If he can keep that up...

 

Keep Rollins and the Flying Hawaiian off the bases. No Howard, but Utley and the Bat can still drive folks in. Rowand has had a nice start.

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It's funny when you think about it...the reason it's 'hard to predict which Bush will show up' is because there's only one Dave Bush, and he's a pretty darn good pitcher. Has he had some rough go-s in the early part of the season? You bet, but so do many good players (not just pitchers).

 

Bush looks to be on track, and I'd be surprised if that didn't continue tonight against a Philly lineup without their huge LH power hitter.

 

I'd put him in line to give up 3-4 runs & go 6-7 innings. That's why Bush is a valuable Brewer. Because this is about an average performance from him. Does he ever pitch worse than this? Uh huh, but he also outperforms it from time to time as well.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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as always with Bush, if he can avoid a bad inning early and Yost takes him out once he is gassed, we should be OK. Moyer probably will keep up unbalanced the first time through the lineup and then hopefully they can adjust to the junk he puts up there.
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Quote:
How do you figure out the good Dave Bush vs Bad Dave Bush Schedule?? Because since his first start his had 5 out of 6 very solid starts.....

 

May. 8 WAS W 6-4 6.2 innings 3 earned runs (good)

May. 3 PIT L 4-2 7.0 innings 4 earned runs (good)

Apr. 28 @HOU L 10-1 5.1 innings 7 earned runs (Bad)

Apr. 22 HOU W 4-3 8.0 innings 3 earned runs (good)

Apr. 17 @CIN L 11-5 5.0 innings 4 earned runs (good)

Apr. 11 @FLA W 5-2 6.0 innings 1 earned run (great)

Apr. 6 CHC L 9-3 6.0 innings 6 earned runs (Bad)

 


 

Make that

 

 

May. 8 WAS W 6-4 6.2 innings 3 earned runs (good)

May. 3 PIT L 4-2 7.0 innings 4 earned runs (POOR)

Apr. 28 @HOU L 10-1 5.1 innings 7 earned runs (Bad)

Apr. 22 HOU W 4-3 8.0 innings 3 earned runs (good)

Apr. 17 @CIN L 11-5 5.0 innings 4 earned runs (BAD)

Apr. 11 @FLA W 5-2 6.0 innings 1 earned run (great)

Apr. 6 CHC L 9-3 6.0 innings 6 earned runs (Bad)

 

Bush is a better pitcher than he has shown this year, but he's simply not been the pitcher you seem to think he has been.

 

Bush needs to show he can stop runs from crossing the plate this year. To date he hasn't really done that, or at least very inconsistently from game to game.

 

I'm not a huge Bush guy, but he needs to step it up this year. Its still early, he may, but another year of a stellar WHIP, K/BB ratio and K per 9 with a mediocre ERA just won't do it.

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Nice haiku, TLB!

 

Bush on mound tonight

Which one will decide to show?

We need a good start

 

Howard on D-L

Makes me feel a little

Better. Although I

 

Still feel that we

Need to be careful with Chase

He can punish us

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