Lee Saves 20 Errors A Season

[Tbadder]

Watching the replay last night I was struck by Rock's comment, that the Cubs' 1st baseman saves his infielders 20 errors a season. Is that true do you think? That seems pretty significant. Or is it? How many runs would that save if true?

 

In a convoluted-related observation: my favorite part of yesterday's game was when a slow roller was hit foul down the first base line. Fielder strolled over but couldn't bend down far enough to get the ball. You'd think a guy built so close to the ground would be able to touch it. My son and I took a double take and just chuckled. It really was funny.

[Oldcity]

Did he just throw out an arbitrary number? Or did he cite some source? Somehow, I'm guessing the former.

[Glennron]

I was wondering the same thing, because I really doubt you can measure how many errors a first basmen saves. It seems kind of funny to just throw out a number like that, too. Obviously he can get balls that are thrown high when he's 6'5" and probably has a longer wingspan than that, but what about balls in the dirt? If it's a basic ball in the dirt, the average first basemen should be able to scoop it, so if he doesn't it is sometimes an error on him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

any throw in the dirt that isn't scooped out by a first baseman ends up being an error charged to whoever threw it to first. official scorers consider scooping the ball to be a non-routine play.

 

about the only time a 1B is charged with an error on those plays is if he can't handle a low throw that gets to him on the fly...Fielder's good for about 5 of those per season.

 

very good defensive first baseman can save their infielders from alot of throwing errors - Lee has always been considered a gold glove caliber 1B.

 

Ramirez has turned himself into an above-average defensive 3B, but when he first came to the Cubs, he was a very inaccurate thrower - Lee bailed him out about 3-4 times per week.

[DrWood]

I don't exactly know how they figure it, but there is a stat for bad throws saved by the 1b. Lee had about 20, and was in second place to Pujols who had about twice that many.

There is a thread on the Cubs ESPN board about the best defensive players in the division. quite a few cubs fans are in denial about Pujols being so good.

[Baldkin]

I would say that is about right.

 

At 6'5", Lee has about 18" (at least) more reach than Prince does at first base (for example), thats to the left, the right, up, and stretching towards the IF as well.

 

I'd bet he catches 10 balls a year that Prince would have to scoop out of the dirt, not to mention what a great scoop he has.

[RobertR]

I don't think it was researched in any way, but 20 errors probably translates into around 10 runs saved and that seems about right. In any event, it's a lot better than when someone asserts that a guy saves a run a game with his glove, which is ludicrous.

 

Robert

[monty57]

Actually, on every play other than a strikeout or walk, someone saves a run (or at least a baserunner) with his glove simply by catching the ball. But you're probably stating "saves a run per game over an average player" which I still think would be a hard stat to figure. There's a lot of physics on top of the stats, as you have to detemine velocity, trajectory, etc, combining that with things like the fielder's position (which in many cases is determined by the pitcher and pitch being thrown as much as by who's at the plate). Then, you'd have to figure out just what an "average" defensive player could do given the exact same parameters. This leads to the common practice of "ceteris paribus" or "all other things remain the same," which is commonly used for projection models, but isn't fully practical in reality.

 

I'm not really brushed up on any of the various "defensive matrixes" commonly utilized, but it seems farily impractical that you could actually put any kind of absolute number on something like that, although it seems the SABR guys are now getting into the absolute category in their discussions (read articles on this site about Braun's defensive inefficiencies to see what I mean). For someone who knows this stuff, do the matrixes get as complicated as "ball hit at x trajectory with x degree pitch traveling x feet/second landing x feet from home while fielder was positioned in x position with x player on the mound and x player at the plate while x pitch was thrown"? Or, is it more like "was the liner to left caught or not"?

 

That said, Lee is a tremendous defender. I've seen him make plays (on batted balls) that I have never seen other first basemen make, and he seems to make fielding look easy. I know that's subjective, but it's the best I've got. 20 errors seems fairly reasonable. That's about one play every eight games that he makes that someone else doesn't. Boy, I bet the Cubs wish they'd of had him when they had Dunston... there would have been a lot less balls that made it into the stands.

[Tbadder]

Did he just throw out an arbitrary number? Or did he cite some source? Somehow, I'm guessing the former.

I was thinking the same thing. I think he just pulled it outta his butt. But that made me think why don't we have a stat for a positive defensive play? I know it's hard to define, but just about everyone knows when they see one. I mean, there's got to be an important relationship between errors and outstanding plays, isn't there?

 

In a way, the infield single is considered an almost outstanding play. A defender has to go from here to Minnesota on a play in the hole, but the runner just beats the throw that's in the dirt. Because the runner is so fast, and the ball in play is in such an extreme position relative to the fielder no official scorer would think twice about giving him an error. Am I making sense?

[cubfan1126]

Ramirez has turned himself into an above-average defensive 3B, but when he first came to the Cubs, he was a very inaccurate thrower - Lee bailed him out about 3-4 times per week.

When Ramirez first came to the Cubs (2nd half of 2003) the Cubs first basemen were Erik Karros, Randall Simon (of sausage race infamy), and Hee Seop Choi. They didn't save any of Ramirez errant throws. Lee was on Florida then. The following year Lee came aboard and Ramirez also improved at picking up the ball and throwing it with help from no-legged Ron Santo.

 

Dunston - his first baseman was Mark Grace - He couldn't get to as many high throws as Lee can but was great at picking them out of the dirt.

[rluzinski]

For someone who knows this stuff, do the matrixes get as complicated as "ball hit at x trajectory with x degree pitch traveling x feet/second landing x feet from home while fielder was positioned in x position with x player on the mound and x player at the plate while x pitch was thrown"? Or, is it more like "was the liner to left caught or not"?

 

For UZR, closer to A than to B:

 

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Part 1

 

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Part 2

 

Many of the questions/concerns/problems with UZR are talked about in the comments section. It is by no means perfect and I'm sure the creator (Michael Lichtman) has attempted to improve it since those articles have been written. I personally don't agree with some of the decisions he's made but I don't use that fact as a reason to dismiss the results out of hand. As long as you recognize that a player being 12 runs above average is only an estimate with limitations, it has value. I'd rather have those numbers when trying to evaluate Braun's defense from last year than simply using only my own, flawed, biased observation.

 

Unfortunately, UZR doesn't rate a first basemens' ability to receive throws. Here's a link to a study that looks at just that, however:

 

First Basemen and Savings Errors

 

Even the best 1B only saved about 6 errors per "year" according to the study and that's not even regresed. At around .75 runs per save, you are looking at 4.5 runs. 20 errors may be too high an estimate.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Even the best 1B only saved about 6 errors per "year" according to the study and that's not even regresed.

That's interesting because it seemed like Lee saved 1 or 2 yesterday, although, I don't know the grounds of the study. Maybe the plays Lee made were considered routine.

[rluzinski]

You could, you know, read the study.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

You could, you know, read the study.

That's your job. You're the expert.

[istanbultaye]

actually, it's his hobby, i'm pretty sure.

[rluzinski]

It's my hobby and I am no expert. Not even close. I'm just the guy with the links to the experts. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Gopher74]

any throw in the dirt that isn't scooped out by a first baseman ends up being an error charged to whoever threw it to first. official scorers consider scooping the ball to be a non-routine play.

No, that's definitely not true. Saying any ball that isn't scooped by the first basemen ends up being an error is like saying any ball that falls in the OF ends up being an error. There is so much more to it than that. For instance, a SS going in the hole who picks it and throws it like Escobar did this year, Prince takes a big stretch and he just can't quite get it as he gets in in between hop. You're telling me in a scenario like this, Escobar would get an error?

Definitely not. On routine players, or throws that should be made that the 1st basemen doesn't scoop they'll be called errors, but a high pct of the balls that are missed aren't called errors.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

In a scenario like you mentioned, no error would be charged, because Escobar made a non-routine play just to field the ball and try to make a throw over to first - that situation Fielder doesn't get charged for an error, but a better-fielding 1B helps his pitcher and SS by getting an out off a ball put in play that normally would be a hit.

 

I'm talking about the bad throws made after a routine fielding play - if JJ gets a routine 2-hopper hit his way and pulls Prince off the bag with a throw, or handcuffs him with a throw in the dirt, it's an error on Hardy every time. I guess I over generalized when putting together my first response - I wasn't thinking of the near-Web Gem plays that are great just to make a play at first interesting.

[Fear The Chorizo]

When Ramirez first came to the Cubs (2nd half of 2003) the Cubs first basemen were Erik Karros, Randall Simon (of sausage race infamy), and Hee Seop Choi. They didn't save any of Ramirez errant throws. Lee was on Florida then. The following year Lee came aboard and Ramirez also improved at picking up the ball and throwing it with help from no-legged Ron Santo.

Dunston - his first baseman was Mark Grace - He couldn't get to as many high throws as Lee can but was great at picking them out of the dirt.

I knew Aram was brutal his first season in Chicago, and showed steady improvement defensively starting with his first full year with the club...that also happened to be the first year DLee was a Cub - the 3-4 errant throws/week that I was talking about were in 04, when Lee was with the Cubs.

[DrWood]

Here's a link to stats for the 2005 season:

http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=85

 

Lee saved 23 bad throws, Pujols 42.

It's from the fielding bible, whatever that is.

[rluzinski]

It's from the fielding bible, whatever that is

 

John Dewan, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions and creater of zone rating, wrote it. He published a play-by-play based fielding metric ( systam I think it's called) in there as well.

 

Lee saved 23 bad throws, Pujols 42.

 

I shouldn't have said that the study suggests 20 errors saved is too high because that was relative to the average 1B. Even a bad 1B is going to field some bad throws. Also, as others have argued, some bad throws that aren't fielded by the 1B are not necessarily destined to be errors, provided the runner doesn't advance.