Tony Gwynn is the next Bill Hall....not good

[endaround]

RickieWeeksJr wrote:

But don't you agree there is something strange about making that claim when the guy has NEVER been given the opportunity to do so? I also made it clear that I didn't think he was anything close to the player his dad was. I was just trying to make a point that you can make it without slugging.

 

In fact, in my opinion, a slap-single hitter would be a nice complement to the Brewers power lineup. No one seems to agree, but I think Gwynn has loads of potential. I think he's at least good enough that he deserves a shot. If he's still playing well when Cameron comes off his suspension, I don't think it's good for the team or fair to Gwynn that Cameron will simply be handed the job.

 

So the Brewers should be in a win now mode except for Tony Gwynn who should just get a chance that he didn't earn because who knows, he might be good someday?

 

[RickieWeeksJr]

"So the Brewers should be in a win now mode except for Tony Gwynn who should just get a chance that he didn't earn because who knows, he might be good someday? "

 

Or like, now. Explain to me how win-now mode constitutes removing a 25-year-old from the lineup who is hitting .300 (this is a hypothetical) in favor of a 35-year-old journeyman who hit .240 last year. If you guys want to split hairs about minor league at-bats, what about Rickie Weeks? If I'm not mistaken the guy hit .250 in AA.

 

It pains me to say this, but what has Rickie Weeks done to deserve his locked-in starting spot that Gwynn hasn't? What about Jeff Suppan? He's basically Dave Bush or Claudio Vargas with a fatter contract and a bigger name.

[aracko]

Gwynn defensively in CF is a gem. You are giving up some power to what we had last year with Bill Hall but you are picking up a guy who is fundamentally sound with the bat and on the bases. He doesnt strike out as much as Hall, Has far more range than Hall and plays the position smarter than Bill Hall.

 

Gwynn IS an upgrade in CF over what we had, just like Bill Hall is an upgrade at 3rd over what we had. The discussion of Gwynn seems to center on his weaknesses and not at all on his strenghts. How about being able to get a bunt down with 2 strikes on Monday? How abotu coming thru with a huge Sac Fly instead of striking out.

 

Gwynn is never going to be a statistical beast or a Fantasy Players starting OF, but he brings alot to this team and I do not mind having him in the lineup, especially when he is swinging a hot bat.

 

In Short - If people considered moving Braun from 3b to LF and putting a sound 3bman there was a big improvement for the team then I am still struggling to understand why replacing Hall with Gwynn, who I think this entire board would agree is an excellent defender, is not a big improvement.

 

 

As far as living in the "now", well thru 2 games, Gwynn is the hottest player on the roster. He has done everything asked of him. With due respect, I just dont understand why the Brewers cant keep rolling with Gwynn and still be in "Win Now mode". Maybe I am misunderstanding something.

[endaround]

"So the Brewers should be in a win now mode except for Tony Gwynn who should just get a chance that he didn't earn because who knows, he might be good someday? "

 

Or like, now. Explain to me how win-now mode constitutes removing a 25-year-old from the lineup who is hitting .300 (this is a hypothetical) in favor of a 35-year-old journeyman who hit .240 last year. If you guys want to split hairs about minor league at-bats, what about Rickie Weeks? If I'm not mistaken the guy hit .250 in AA.

 

It pains me to say this, but what has Rickie Weeks done to deserve his locked-in starting spot that Gwynn hasn't? What about Jeff Suppan? He's basically Dave Bush or Claudio Vargas with a fatter contract and a bigger name.

Cameron isn't a journey man, he's a top flight CFer. Weeks put up better numbers last year than Gwynn ever will. Weeks killed AAA pitching to force his way on to the team.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

Rickie Weeks OBP/SLG/OPS

A: .474/.556/1.030 (2003, 63 ABs)

AA: ..368/.407/.775 (2004, 479 ABs)

AAA: .403/.655/1.058 (2005, 203 ABs)

 

Tony Gywnn Jr. OBP/SLG/OPS

A: .366/.326/.692 (2003, 236 ABs)

AA: .312/.311/.623 (2004, 534 ABs)

AA: .370/.338/.708 (2005, 509 ABs)

AAA: .360/.396/.756 (2006, 447 ABs)

 

Also, Weeks has .400 OBP potential at a major league level and better base stealing ability.

 

HR Ceiling

Weeks: 30-35

Gwynn: 5-10

[aracko]

Id really be surprised if Gwynn ever hit 5 Hrs in a season. That just doesnt seem to be his game. Id pay to see a HR Derby between Pierre and Gwynn if I could play shag balls in Short Center.

[zzzmanwitz]

the ceiling was including 3-5 inside the park HRs http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Gopher74]

Rickie Weeks Jr.

Wow. You're really coming out of left field and just blasting Hall for almost no reason in most cases.

 

he doesn't take care of his body

 

Where does this come from? That's absolutely no true whatsoever. According to people who work with the Brewers, spend time in the weight room with the players and the locker room, Bill Hall is one of the hardest working guys on the team, and has taken care of his body as much as anyone. There just isn't any substance to this, and I don't get why you'd throw something so ridiculous out there.

An overrated, overpaid bust who swings at everything and has lost every ounce of humility that once made him a decent player.

I always love the "he's overrated" line. By who? What's he "rated"? Please substantiate this in any way, shape or form?

Second, how is he overpaid? Because he had a bad season following two VERY good ones? And the Brewers bought out his arby years? He made 3.125 million dollars last year. I believe he makes about 6 million this year. I'd like to know in what world that's overpaid? Look around at baseball's salaries right now. He's not overpaid in the least.

Third, how does his "humility" make him a better or worse player? That just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

He doesn't hustle like he used to

 

Again, please substantiate this in any way? This is coming out of nowhere.

 

and he let one good season get to his head (even though, to me, his 2005 was better than 2006).

Oh come on. Where do you get this stuff from? I simply don't understand how someone can honestly sit behind a computer screen and make these types of statements as to a players state of mind. Honestly, you've alluded to this a couple times now, and I'd like to get some clue as to what you're talking about.

 

Second, it absolutely was two good seasons. I don't know why you think his 05 season was better than his 06 season as it just wasn't, but either way. It was 2 good seasons.

 

.270/.345/.553 with 35 HR's and 85 RBI's in 06

.291/.342/.495 with 17 HR's and 62 RBI's in 05

 

Explain how you can say objectively that his 05 season was better? Because he had a slightly higher BA despite a worse OBP, and much worse SLG? This is mind you while playing short stop, and leading the league in many of the offensive numbers at shortstop. So among other things, I'd love to hear how he was better in 05.

 

If I could replace one player in the lineup it would be Hall. I cringed the very day he got that four-year deal, and I can't wait until it's up. Every year I hope he's traded at the deadline.

 

This tells me all I need to know about your objectivity or lack thereof on Bill Hall.

 

Last year when Bill Hall had that ridiculous quote, something along the lines of "Look at my stats, I'm not having that bad of a year, I haven't been that bad," that was the last thing I ever needed to hear about Bill Hall.

 

And what was that? I suppose he could have said, "you know what, I am just terrible...I don't even belong playing major league baseball....".

 

You do realize when he said this, his numbers WEREN'T that bad. It's real easy to take a quote, not get it right, take it out of context and make a guy look bad. That's really not tough, nor does it serve any purpose whatsoever.

[Gopher74]

Or like, now. Explain to me how win-now mode constitutes removing a 25-year-old from the lineup who is hitting .300 (this is a hypothetical) in favor of a 35-year-old journeyman who hit .240 last year. If you guys want to split hairs about minor league at-bats, what about Rickie Weeks? If I'm not mistaken the guy hit .250 in AA.

Explain it? How about the fact that BA is far and away the most overrated stat in all of sports? How about that for starters.

 

The fact that this "journeymen"(I'm not going to even get into the problems with that statement) STILL had a better OBP than Gwynn did last year depsite hitting .243? That he can draw a walk meaning the only thing that Gwynn could even pray to have on Cameron, being able to get on base, he doesn't do that as well either?

The fact that Cameron's played in big time pitcher parks his entire career and he's a safe bet for .250-.260/.350 with 20-25 HR's and 20-25 SB's?

The fact that he's a 3 time GG'er and 3 time Runner Up?

The fact that he's led baeball the last two years in going from 1st to 3rd?

And you can't just make up a Batting Average for Gwynn, and then argue why he should stay in the lineup based on the number you pulled from thin air.

It pains me to say this, but what has Rickie Weeks done to deserve his locked-in starting spot that Gwynn hasn't?

 

Played better baseball for starters? How about being in the top 5 of all leadoff hitters last year in OBP, SLG, and OPS?

And the fact that the Brewers don't have a all-star and GG'er waiting at 2nd base who they brought in as a FA this past off-season?

 

There are several other reasons, but those should be sufficient.

[gregmag]

A couple of things:

 

First, I did a thing last year where I looked at some successful low-power, high-OBP big leaguers and examined how much power they put up in their early minor league careers, at comparable points to Gwynn's career so far. It was anecdotal, unscientific, and informal, and I have no idea where the post is, but the sense I got was that Gwynn was pretty far behind guys like Lofton, Brett Butler, Carew, etc. when it comes to power development. As others have said, guys like Lofton and Gwynn Sr. actually have/had some pop. Gwynn could still develop more power, but the clock is ticking. I don't know of anyone who has gone from Gwynn's established level of power at age 24 to developing enough power to start for a good team.

 

Second -- and again, others have said this, but some people don't seem to be hearing it -- we Gwynn skeptics aren't focused on his lack of power because we think everybody needs to hit home runs. I agree that Gwynn could start and be an asset with a .400 OBP and a .400 SLG. The thing is, nobody puts up those numbers. If you have as little power as Gwynn does, the pitchers aren't going to walk you, so getting to that .400 OBP will require enough flares and bunts to put up a .350 BA. That just doesn't happen. Gwynn doesn't need big-time power, but he needs enough power to put up a big-time OBP, and he's nowhere near that right now.

 

Third, others have done a good job of defending Bill Hall for what he is, but I want to add a good word for his contract. If, as Russ posited, Hall puts up his career numbers and plays a decent 3B, that makes him a legit starter on a contending team (at a position, incidentally, where the team in question can't develop or find anybody else). As such, he's an absolute bargain. Melvin was smart, and the Brewers were lucky, to lock up a few of Hall's prime-age years for so little money.

 

Greg.

[Gopher74]

Second -- and again, others have said this, but some people don't seem to be hearing it -- we Gwynn skeptics aren't focused on his lack of power because we think everybody needs to hit home runs. I agree that Gwynn could start and be an asset with a .400 OBP and a .400 SLG. The thing is, nobody puts up those numbers. If you have as little power as Gwynn does, the pitchers aren't going to walk you, so getting to that .400 OBP will require enough flares and bunts to put up a .350 BA. That just doesn't happen. Gwynn doesn't need big-time power, but he needs enough power to put up a big-time OBP, and he's nowhere near that right now.

 

Ok, so now Gwynn has to post a .400 OBP in order to be a viable big league player? I can't disagree with that anymore. I think at .360 with his defense, and his speed, he could be a very solid player. A line of .300/.360/.400 would be just fine given the fact that he'll likely play a very, very good defensive CF.

 

Second, I don't agree in the least bit that pitchers won't walk you if you don't have power. That's essentially saying that walks are all about the pitcher when in fact walks are as much about the hitter as they are about the pitcher. So I think there's a fundamental problem suggesting that he can't have a high OBP if he doesn't have good power.

 

There's no reason that Tony Gwynn Jr can't become a Chone Figgins type player. Hit for a high average, walk a bit, steal some bases, and play a very good CF.

 

 

 

 

As for the RickieWeeks Jr comments about one Mr. Bill Hall.....thank you. I'm giving you much of the credit on that one. Blasting him for seemingly no reason and without cause the day before he goes off for 6 RBI's on 2 bomb's. Nice. If he was lost up there....he sure as hell found himself!

 

And yea Greg, I don't get why anyone would say that Hall's overpaid at this point. He's certainly not.

[trwi7]

I believe he makes about 6 million this year.

It's actually only $4.8 million this year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[logan82]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1925000/images/_1926606_bullfighter_afp_300.jpg

 

I found a picture of Hall fielding at 3B.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't get why anyone would say that Hall's overpaid at this point. He's certainly not.

Hall is one of the best bargains on our team not counting the players who haven't reached arbitration yet.

[gregmag]

Ok, so now Gwynn has to post a .400 OBP in order to be a viable big league player? I can't disagree with that anymore. I think at .360 with his defense, and his speed, he could be a very solid player. A line of .300/.360/.400 would be just fine given the fact that he'll likely play a very, very good defensive CF.

 

Second, I don't agree in the least bit that pitchers won't walk you if you don't have power. That's essentially saying that walks are all about the pitcher when in fact walks are as much about the hitter as they are about the pitcher. So I think there's a fundamental problem suggesting that he can't have a high OBP if he doesn't have good power.

 

There's no reason that Tony Gwynn Jr can't become a Chone Figgins type player. Hit for a high average, walk a bit, steal some bases, and play a very good CF.

 

This is a fair response, but I think it ends up reinforcing my point. First of all, I absolutely agree with you that walks depend a lot on a hitter's ability to create them. No question. But a hitter can only create walks once he has a certain level of hitting ability. The same thing is true for hits. We take for granted that hitters have a lot to do with whether they get hits or make outs. But if you or I went up against Ben Sheets, we would make outs almost all the time, and we wouldn't have any ability to control that. Before anybody pounces, I'm not saying Tony Gwynn is as bad a hitter as I am, but I am saying that he isn't a good enough hitter to induce walks. To put it another way, some good hitters have the additional talent of inducing walks, and some don't; but very few truly punchless hitters at the MLB level can induce walks. Am I forgetting somebody who has put up a plus OBP with as little power as Gwynn has?

 

Your Chone Figgins comparison shows exactly what I'm talking about. Going into this year, as luck would have it, Chone Figgins had a career SLG of exactly .400. His career OBP was .354. Only once has he put up an OBP over .352 -- last year, .393 -- and he did that alongside a career high SLG of .419. His best year for leveraging a relatively high OBP with a relatively low SLG was 2005, when he put up a .352 OBP with a .397 SLG. Figgins' career OPS really isn't great, and last year IMHO is the only season where his OPS alone qualified him as a good player. I think he has been somewhat overrated, but there's a strong argument that, if you consider his stolen base success and his ability to play 3b and cf well, he has been very valuable.

 

Gwynn doesn't bring Figgins' versatility to the table, and he hasn't yet shown the ability to steal a lot of bases at a high success rate; but he is a strong defender with good speed. So far he doesn't do anything better than Figgins. So, barring some other unexpected development, I don't see how Gwynn has any hope of being nearly as useful as Figgins unless Gwynn puts up at least a .400 SLG.

 

Greg.

[RickieWeeksJr]

"As for the RickieWeeks Jr comments about one Mr. Bill Hall.....thank you. I'm giving you much of the credit on that one. Blasting him for seemingly no reason and without cause the day before he goes off for 6 RBI's on 2 bomb's. Nice. If he was lost up there....he sure as hell found himself! "

 

Oh please. That is what Bill Hall does. He shows up for a week here and there and disappears. He will end the year hitting no higher than .260. He'll have close to 20 homers to go along with 120 strikeouts, and he'll be awful in the one thing that won't show up on his stats: clutch hitting.

[RyDogg66]

"As for the RickieWeeks Jr comments about one Mr. Bill Hall.....thank you. I'm giving you much of the credit on that one. Blasting him for seemingly no reason and without cause the day before he goes off for 6 RBI's on 2 bomb's. Nice. If he was lost up there....he sure as hell found himself! "

 

Oh please. That is what Bill Hall does. He shows up for a week here and there and disappears. He will end the year hitting no higher than .260. He'll have close to 20 homers to go along with 120 strikeouts, and he'll be awful in the one thing that won't show up on his stats: clutch hitting.

Ah yes, clutch hitting. The undefinable statistic.

 

[istanbultaye]

So, because Bill Hall didn't hit a walkoff HR with a pink bat two years in a row, he's no longer 'clutch'.

[RickieWeeksJr]

It seems that every time Bill Hall steps into the box with the bases loaded or 2 out and RISP he takes three hacks and grabs a seat on the bench.

[rluzinski]

Only once has he put up an OBP over .352 -- last year, .393 -- and he did that alongside a career high SLG of .419.

Without looking at his specific numbers, that might not be completely fair, since an increase in OBP through BA can add to SLG. What I think we really want to compare is walk rate (BB/PA) to ISO (SLG - BA). Looking at just players who started their career in 1970 or later and accumulated at least 3,000 major league AB, I get 552 batters:

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/walksvspower.jpg
I think that's statistically significant (someone check my work?), although I included intentional walks. Without IBB, R^2 lowers to .108.

Even if it is significant, is there a practical difference? Let's break it up into groups:

Walk Rate (Without IBB) By ISO:
Less than .100: 1 walk per 12.5 PA (n = 106)
Between .100 and .150: 1 walk per 14.3 PA (n = 176)
Between .151 and .200: 1 walk per 12.5 PA (n = 167)
Over .200: 1 walk per 10 PA (n = 103)

Unless you include the big boppers, it doesn't really seem to mater how much power you have in this sample.

Of course, there's probably huge selection bias in my sample. Players that have a sub .100 ISO aren't even going to be allowed to rack up 3,000+ AB unless they make up for it in other areas (hit for average, walk, stolen bases). Someone should repeat this for anyone with over 1,000 AB http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

The most damning case you might be able to make against Gwynn being a long term starter is that only 2 players since 1970 with an ISO of .050 or less have been allowed to rack up 3,000 or more AB (Otis Nixon and Duane Kuiper). Only 32 players with an ISO of .075 and lower. Gwynn's probably going to need an ISO north of .075 to stick (like he got in AAA in 2006). Can he do it in the majors?