Tony Gwynn is the next Bill Hall....not good

[LaprilOne]

Can Tony Gwynn Jr. Pitch?

Hey!

 

I copy-wrote "Can --insert name here -- pitch" when a brilliant and not even beer inspired moment led me to start the "Can Bill Hall Pitch?" thread. It is my one shining moment on this board.

 

My agent Scott Boras and his team of legal jackals will be contacting you shortly about this infringement.

[logan82]

I think Bill Hall isn't as good as he thinks he is. He thinks he is fast and can steal bases. He is wrong. He is a terrible base stealer. He thinks his arm is strong enough to throw out anybody. He is wrong and in some cases should eat the ball instead of throwing it.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

He has made a few mistakes on the basepath in his years, but he did lead the Brewers in doubles last year if I remember correctly. A high percentage of his hits go for extra bases. I have no problem with Bill Hall as our starting 3rd basemen this year overall. I also have no problem with Gwynn as our starting CF until Cameron is gone. I do have a problem with Gross in CF, though, with his poor range out there. Yes, he gives you the chance for the long ball, but I'll take the defense and situational hitting of Gwynn in the month of April. Let Gross do his job as a lefty bat off the bench.

 

I'm wondering if Bill Hall can provide above average defense at 3B. Having a former SS at 3B leads me to believe so.

[logan82]

He has made a few mistakes on the basepath in his years,

He gets caught stealing in over half of his attempts over the last couple years. I don't know what happened between 2005 and 2006, but he shouldn't even be thinking about getting a big lead or stealing bases. The most positive thing to say about his baserunning is that he only attempted 9 SB last year.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Yeah it's kinda sad because he has good speed, just poor judgment sometimes on the bases.

[danzig6767]

I think TGJ is heading down this path now. There seems to be a lot of love for him to be a regular starter in centerfield. I hope "the mustache" realizes he is not the center fielder of the future before he buys out his arby years like he did with Hall.

Gwynn has a good game and you translate that into fearing that now Melvin will suddenly rush to give Tony a big long term deal that buys out his arby years and first year of free agency?

 

[Time for a Miller]

I guess my main point was that due to some timely hits I have a feeling that Bill Hall and Tony Gwynn are rated higher than they should be. Bill Hall is an average hitter with some slighlty below average defense and some terrible base running intuition. He is not a potential MVP, potential All-star, or cornerstone of a franchise. Tony Gwynn is a skilled defensive outfielder with good speed who is a well below average hitter in my opinion. He is not a starter and I hope not a 4th outfielder on our team in the future unless we can get him for cheap. Gwynn should definetly not be hitting second in the order, but that is not his fault. I cheer hard for both players and hope they can achieve more then I give them credit for. Especially Hall since he seems like a great guy off the field.

 

 

edit:

This is not a judgement based on one game of course as almost no judgments should be and almost none of mine are. More like this game is an example of something larger, so please do not play the "only one game" and "rushing to judgement" card.

[Gopher74]

Now if Hart/Hardy/Hall is in the 2hole instead of Gwynn. Not only could you get a extra base hit -- but you may get into the other team's BP as they will have to pitch to both Fielder and Braun. TGJ almost HAS to bunt in that situation, because in all likelihood that is what he going to effectively do if he swings away. Basically Yost forced himself to put all of his eggs in the Braun basket -- which worked out well yesterday.

You're on the road there. Why wouldn't you play for one run? Yea, I understand the idea behind not giving up outs, but there's also times where it just makes baseball sense to move a guy over, especially when you're guaranteeing that at least one of Braun and or Prince are going to get an AB with a RISP. Had Hardy been hitting in the number 2 spot, or even Hart, they would likely have also bunted them over.

 

I agree with who said why can't we just let the kid play for a little while before we make these absolute statements about what his ceiling is or isn't. Yea, I wouldn't hand him a starting spot right now, but, as I argued in another thread, if he's able to hit like he did in AAA, then he's going to be a very solid option to start in CF, and he can do many of the little things quite well for you. It's as if both sides on the Gwynn debate absolutely have to determine what this kid is right now. It is possible for some guys to develop a little bit slower and despite their projections, actually exceed them. Again, not saying he will, and right now, he appears to be a 4th OF'er, but he continues to improve, and may end up being a bigger part of our future than many seem to think.

 

 

[Gopher74]

I have a feeling on most days, Weeks would have stolen 2nd, and Gwynn would be swinging away. However, with the wet infield, a stolen base wasn't feasible at the time. For the most part, I don't have a big problem with Gwynn batting 2nd against righties. Hardy should bat 2nd versus lefties, though.

Hell, if Weeks took 2nd, I'd still want Gwynn to move him over there. Probably more so than if he didn't. Then you just need a fly ball to take the lead there. You're playing for one run in a 0-0 game in the 9th.

 

Gwynn has a good game and you translate that into fearing that now Melvin will suddenly rush to give Tony a big long term deal that buys out his arby years and first year of free agency?

 

Yea, I don't know why you'd even think about signing Gwynn long term. Heck, even if he becomes that player that I think it's possible he becomes, he'll never cost a lot of money. I'd have to say that on our list of who to sign to buy out arby years, Gwynn's right behind Jeffress and LaPorta. In other words, it hasn't crossed the Brewers mind yet.

 

It would be nice if the Rangers were convinced that he could be their CF'er of the future and we could pick up a guy like Benoit for him, or Wilson. Sure, we've got a nice pen right now, but I'd take either of those for the long haul.

 

 

[logan82]

The problem is that sac bunting is almost always a bad idea. It decreases your overall chances of scoring runs while increasing your chances of scoring one run.(Russ's post has a link to a nice chart, see link to thread below) Of course the IBB to Fielder almost gives back the entire advantage of a scoreless inning that the Cubs gained.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=10845

[Gopher74]

The problem is that sac bunting is almost always a bad idea. It decreases your overall chances of scoring runs while increasing your chances of scoring one run.(Russ's post has a link to a nice chart, see link to thread below) Of course the IBB to Fielder almost gives back the entire advantage of a scoreless inning that the Cubs gained.

Yea, again, I understand that it's almost always a bad idea. Almost being the operative word. In a 0-0 game on the road with no outs, and your 2-3-4 coming up, it's not. Then it's a very good idea. You play for the one run there. Getting the 3 was huge of course, and ended up being vital, but you play for the 1 first and foremost.

 

A sac bunt in the top of the first inning is obviously a poor idea, but this wasn't in the top of the 1st. I think everyone understands that it's not always a good idea, but clearly there are times where it's just common sense.

 

As for the IBB to Prince, that was also pretty obvious right there. You set up the DP, and you face the right hander with the righty on the mound rather than the lefty.

[logan82]

Gopher74 wrote:

As for the IBB to Prince, that was also pretty obvious right there. You set up the DP, and you face the right hander with the righty on the mound rather than the lefty.

I get the feeling you didn't read the link.

[Gopher74]

Gopher74 wrote:

As for the IBB to Prince, that was also pretty obvious right there. You set up the DP, and you face the right hander with the righty on the mound rather than the lefty.

I get the feeling you didn't read the link.

Sure I did, but I'm quite capable of making my mind up on my own.

 

The link also says that walking the next hitter decreases the chances of a run scoring? So I'm not really getting your point here other than it's some vague insult....

Had this particular link that used 3 years of stats said that the other was true, would that then mean that under no circumstance would it be better to do so?

 

[logan82]

If I was going to insult you I would have been much more direct. I was talking about what each manager's moves did to the odds of scoring one run verses no runs. I was not making any judgement on which was better.

[aracko]

I am sure someone can answer this but why cant Tony Gwynn Jr be a younger Kenny Lofton? He can run like crazy and plays defense in Center field as good as I have seen in a long time. It seems like he covers just a ton of ground out there and his glove is really good. He is so fundamentally sound. He can get a bunt down in a tough spot and came thru with a big sac fly. How many games do teams lose because they cannot do the little things. He might not be a doubles machine, but he can take bases. Guys like Gwynn dont grow on trees. I still contend that he is never going to give up this starting CF spot vs RH pitching.

 

Power isnt necessary out of a CF. See Dave Roberts, Kenny Lofton.

[endaround]

Kenny Lofton has loads more power than Gwynn. Gwynn at best will become Willy Taveras.

[rluzinski]

I guess my main point was that due to some timely hits I have a feeling that Bill Hall and Tony Gwynn are rated higher than they should be.

 

Maybe by the fans but I don't think Melvin isn't going to let a few clutch hits change his opnion of a player's overall ability. I hope not at least. I recall him sighting Miller's good BA w/RISP when he signed him (Miller predictably battied .182 w/RISP that year) but I have to believe that was for public consumption. With regard to the fans, anything that makes them like the players is OK by me.

[Gopher74]

If I was going to insult you I would have been much more direct. I was talking about what each manager's moves did to the odds of scoring one run verses no runs. I was not making any judgement on which was better.

Apologies. It just came off a big smarmy to me, but I guess there's not much to that.

I agree that those are very interesting numbers, and should and likely are taken into account.

 

[Gopher74]

Kenny Lofton has loads more power than Gwynn. Gwynn at best will become Willy Taveras.

He developed much more, but he didn't have much more early in his career. I think hoping him to become anything even remotely close to Kenny Lofton's probably about as likely as Will Inman becoming an ace. It's possible and not totally unrealistic, but highly unlikely.

 

I guess I was kinda envisioning him as a Willy Taveras/Juan Pierre at his best potentially. He may just prove to be a .280/.320/.380 guy, and if so, he'll serve very little use to us, I just think it's possible that he's the type who becomes more than the sum of his parts so to speak. The type of player that can help a team win more than his win shares, OPS, or any other line would lead one to believe.

 

but I have to believe that was for public consumption. With regard to the fans, anything that makes them like the players is OK by me.

How many of the things the FO says do you think is just for that purpose? I got into an argument last year with one of my best friends about BABIP. He claimed it was some obscure, unknown stat that nobody else uses. He fancies himself a big fan of the sport, and thinks(key word thinks) he was this great player, yet he'd never heard of this. My guess is that the average fan is really quite clueless about what goes into scouting a player, or who they look to bring in which leads to the "Dave Bush sucks" segment of the population after one very good season and one poor season.

 

 

 

[RickieWeeksJr]

Tony Gwynn is better than Bill Hall. If he would get regular PT he would prove that.

 

He will never hit the home runs Bill Hall can, but he will get HITS. What is it with this 2B and HR crap anyway? His dad had almost no power either. He's not ever going to be half the player his dad was, but I really don't see .300, 30 SBs and great defense as out of TGJ's reach. I really don't understand all of this "he has a ceiling, blah blah blah" talk. He doesn't need to hit doubles and home runs. A base hit and a SB can get that done, and even if not, the Brewers have so much power in that lineup, they can afford to have one guy who just gets on base.

 

How in the world can so many of you make these judgments on TGJ? He hasn't been given anything CLOSE to a fair chance to give you the grounds for a statement like that.

 

Meanwhile we all know what Bill Hall is. An overrated, overpaid bust who swings at everything and has lost every ounce of humility that once made him a decent player. He doesn't hustle like he used to, he doesn't take care of his body, and he let one good season get to his head (even though, to me, his 2005 was better than 2006). Last year when Bill Hall had that ridiculous quote, something along the lines of "Look at my stats, I'm not having that bad of a year, I haven't been that bad," that was the last thing I ever needed to hear about Bill Hall.

 

He's solid defensively and mediocre with the bat. He's Geoff Jenkins, except for some reason he seems to think he's a baserunning threat, which leads to him always making stupid mistakes and getting caught stealing. He's expendable. If I could replace one player in the lineup it would be Hall. I cringed the very day he got that four-year deal, and I can't wait until it's up. Every year I hope he's traded at the deadline.

[PeaveyFury]

His dad had almost no power either.

 

Gwynn Sr never slugged under .400 in any of his full seasons in the Majors. I'm not sure if Gwynn Jr will ever be over .400.

Meanwhile we all know what Bill Hall is. An overrated, overpaid bust

 

Opinions of Hall were very low when he came up and never all that high on him in the minors, so I think he's already out-produced what was expected of him. I don't see how he can be classified as a 'bust.'

[lukevan]

Tony Gwynn Jr has no chance to put up the season that Bill Hall in 06. I don't know how the two players are comparable. Gwynn may be able to out-OBP Hall this season but even that's not a certainty.

 

Meanwhile we all know what Bill Hall is. An overrated, overpaid bust who swings at everything and has lost every ounce of humility that once made him a decent player. He doesn't hustle like he used to, he doesn't take care of his body, and he let one good season get to his head

 

Wow, really?

[RickieWeeksJr]

Gwynn Sr never slugged under .400 in any of his full seasons in the Majors. I'm not sure if Gwynn Jr will ever be over .400.

But don't you agree there is something strange about making that claim when the guy has NEVER been given the opportunity to do so? I also made it clear that I didn't think he was anything close to the player his dad was. I was just trying to make a point that you can make it without slugging.

 

In fact, in my opinion, a slap-single hitter would be a nice complement to the Brewers power lineup. No one seems to agree, but I think Gwynn has loads of potential. I think he's at least good enough that he deserves a shot. If he's still playing well when Cameron comes off his suspension, I don't think it's good for the team or fair to Gwynn that Cameron will simply be handed the job.

 

[lukevan]

Gwynn was given tons of minor league ABs to show what he could do. Obviously he hasn't had a great number of ABs in the majors and I don't have much of a problem with Gwynn starting these first 25 games in CF against RHP, but why should he be given all these plate appearances when he hasn't shown that he can be even average offensively for a CF? Cameron will out OBP and out SLG Gwynn by a fair margin and Cameron is probably also the better defender and every bit as good on the basepaths.

[rluzinski]

How many of the things the FO says do you think is just for that purpose?

 

I really don't know. Melvin has always been very disceptive when discussing things in public, so I wouldn't put it past him to fudge other things. I always question how much Mark A. is also influencing roster moves. If Mark A. just LOVED Suppan, Melvin is probably going to have to publically "love" him as well.

 

In the end, it's just blind speculation on my part, however.