Final PECOTA Standings

[endaround]

Here they are:

 

PECOTA Standings

 

I still have trouble with the Cubs' offense being 100 runs better

[brewtank34]

I'd rather have the division, but I'll take the wild card....

 

This is OUR year!!! Go Brewers!!!

[And That]

88 wins sounds about right for the Brewers. I don't know that the Cubs will make 90.

[molitor fan]

The Rays having the best pitching in the AL by runs scored against, and the Mariners 75-87 record are the two things that still stand out in these projections for me.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yea, the Cubs outproducing the Crew in BA, OBP & SLG? I don't think so.

 

EDIT: Also, .281/.351/.449 from the 2008 Rockies? I guess I'll believe that when I see it. They're basically counting on Holliday to hit .340 again, Willy Taveras to bat .320 again, Spilborghs to be around .300 again, and that they'll get a .290-ish/.350-ish line again from 2B. That seems like a lot of hoping to me.

 

Yes, the Rox play in a huge offensive park, but they give them the best BA/OBP/SLG line in MLB, and then pick them to basically finish at .500. I don't disagree that the Rockies won't win that division, but if they actually post that line, they'd pick up more than 82 wins imo. With Jimenez & Morales in the rotation all year, I don't see how they'd pitch poorly enough to negate that offensive line.

[LUKE232323]

Here they are:

 

PECOTA Standings

 

I still have trouble with the Cubs' offense being 100 runs better

I see them listed as 16 runs better for runs scored, or am I reading this incorrectly?

 

[TooLiveBrew]

end meant from 2007 (752 R scored by Cubs)

 

I might overstate this, but it seems pretty wild & irresponsible to 'forecast' that the same offense will score that much more. The Cubs haven't changed much - if anything - about their offense. Adding Soto for a full season (even if you believe that he can somehow sustain a BABIP of .400) just isn't enough to justify that. I think they'll probably score a few more than last year, but PECOTA's got something wacky going on here imo.

[Ennder]

They project Fukudome for an .905 OPS which would be huge. Pie with an .825 which would also be huge. Soto with an .829 which is insanley higher than their C last year.

 

I think all 3 of those projections are too high though so I'm comfortable with them being wrong.