6 of top 62 picks

[ORLANDOBREWER]

The Brewers will be drafting at slots

 

16

32

35

53

54

62

 

While glancing at the draft order I only saw two other teams with 3 picks max within the top 62. I may have missed something?

 

This should be a very exciting draft for Jack Z and all Brewer fans. Time to stock up on a new wave of young players to follow for years to come.

[foamboy1]

Because I know Patrick will be visiting here sometime soon....and trying to put the six picks in perspective; how does this draft rate to others in the recent past? Is this a good year or bad year to have all these high picks?

[TooLiveBrew]

I know that, in terms of so-called 'polished'/'near-ready' pitching, the top of this year's class is pretty deep.

[paul253]

I just hope they don't go cheap because of so many picks.

[colbyjack]

The draft is pretty deep, especially at the college level, where there's a nice blend of bats and arms. The prep class is pretty strong as well, although probably not as strong as it was a year ago. However, there are two premium prep bats at the top of this year's draft class (Tim Beckham and Eric Hosmer) as well as a premium prep catcher (Kyle Skipworth). It's definitely a good year to have extra, early picks.

[TooLiveBrew]

cj, I apoligize if you've addressed this elsewhere, but is Tim any relation to Gordon?

[colbyjack]

Nope.

 

Tim Beckham:

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/images/players/highschool/thumbnails/07nat12.jpg

 

Gordon Beckham:

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/Weekly/Week2007/Photos/WK2_GordonBeckham.jpg

[NastyTwig]

You sure?

[TooLiveBrew]

Nope.

 

Tim Beckham:

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/images/players/highschool/thumbnails/07nat12.jpg

 

Gordon Beckham:

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/Weekly/Week2007/Photos/WK2_GordonBeckham.jpg

Maybe one's adopted.[/kidding]

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif

 

Thanks, cj.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers have six picks in the first 63 of a what looks to be a deep draft.

 

In 2005, the Red Sox had six picks in the top 57, they wound up with Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden and Jonathan Egan.

 

Now, the '05 draft may wind up being the best ever, there are already several impact players in the major leagues, with more about to get here. It may not be fair to compare what happened for the Sox to what might happen for the Brewers, but that's not just any list of names for the Sox - they made out like bandits that year!

 

Egan looks like a bust, but those other five players were rated by Baseball America as Boston's #1, 2, 5, 7, and 18 prospects prior to the season.

 

For instance, using BA's rankings of the Brewers' prospects, that would be like adding LaPorta, Parra, Gamel, Brewer and Scarpetta to the system, prior to the end of round two.

 

Go Jack Z!

[1e Corbeau]

For instance, using BA's rankings of the Brewers' prospects, that would be like adding LaPorta, Parra, Gamel, Brewer and Scarpetta to the system, prior to the end of round two.

 

Go Jack Z!

 

That's an interesting point to ponder.

Another interesting comparison would be that Jack Z & Co. were able to get Parra in the 26th as a DFE and Scarpetta in the 11th. I know it's easiest to laud after the fact - and to ignore the busts - but Parra's transaction looks particularly astute, as he signed for 1st/2nd sandwich money, IIRC, which is almost like an extra pick in between Jones and Hardy (2001) or Fielder and Josh Murray (echo...) in '02.

To avoid this being a total non sequitur, it bodes well that we have such high picks to gamble with, rather than 11th round or now-defunct DFE candidates. I'm not sold on Bucholz or Ellsbury, so I think Jack Z can do better, even with a shallower class.

[paul253]

I wouldnt mind seeing them spend 4, or even 5 of the top 6 picks on pitchers. Their system is loaded with outfielders, and the system is almost completely bare of pitching. All the good pitchers they do have are very young. We need some good quality arms to catch up to the bats. I dont want to see them take a reliever because i think relievers are much easier to come across, even by trade. You can sign a good reliever for 5 or 6 million a year, whereas a good starter is now going to cost at least 10-12.

[colbyjack]

I think we'll see quite a few pitchers taken early. The trades last year that sent Eveland, Inman, Garrison and Thatcher elsewhere already thinned out the system, and the tenuous health of Sheets and Gallardo, and even Parra's injury history, has got to have the organization thinking they need to load up on pitching. There are some nice prospects at both levels of A ball, but they need some guys that can move up quickly.

 

I think a reliever will be among one of those 6 picks. I agree with you in that relievers do seem to be relatively easy to come by, and how the team quickly acquired Torres, Mota, Riske and even Gagne in such a short period of time reinforces that idea, but with all of those extra picks I think the team would help itself tremendously if they can get a potential closer that could be up in the big leagues possibly at some point during the 2009 season.

 

If I had to guess, 4 of those 6 picks will be used on pitchers, with the other two going to address the organization's need at 3B and C. At the same time, I don't want to see the organization try to get too cute with their picks, but I'm not too concerned about that given Jack Z's BPA philosophy.

[paul253]

Do you think they are more likely to go the route of high risk-high reward type players like Jones, Rogers, and Jeffress, or go the safer, less high ceiling route in a college pitcher? Personally I'd be interested if there are any good solid college arms available at 16. The other route has landed some duds so far.

[colbyjack]

The 16th pick is likely going to be an awesome position to draft a high school pitcher, from Sonny Gray to Bubba Meyer to Kyle Lobstein to Brett DeVall. By the 16th pick, the college starters are likely going to be picked over pretty well, as you're likely going to face a lull between the second tier starters in Scheppers and Hunt and the third tier starters in guys like Friedrich, Ross, Thompson, etc. Jack Z. is a big value guy, often pointing out that he's not going to take the 6th best college starter over the 2nd or 3rd best high school pitcher. I think the 16-55 range or so where the Brewers will have 5 picks definitely gives the advantage to the prep pitchers.

 

As others have noted however, Joshua Fields at #16 could be a perfect fit.

[igor67]

Given how much the big league budget went up this year I hope that the team allocates enough of a budget to be aggressive with these picks. Not saying that everyone needs to cater to people who want huge contracts, but I think ti would be a waste of the opportunity to have one normal slot pick and then fill the rest out with cheap signers. Needs and what not I'd just as soon Jack went with the best bat left at #16 (since that always seems to workout very well) and then go after pitchers maybe mixing in some position guys if they are a good value at that draft position.

[Never Outhustled]

Personally I'd be interested if there are any good solid college arms available at 16. The other route has landed some duds so far.

While Jones is a bust, and Rogers is a long ways away, going the college route in those years wouldn't have changed much.

 

The 2 college arms some prefered in 2004 were Jeremy Sowers and Thomas Diamond. They have also been duds to date, and Sowers couldn't even be considered by Jack Z, as he demanded over slot money. The Brewers did make the best selection of the 2004 draft, getting Yo Gollardo in round 2. Thats awesome when you consider what a horrible draft the 2004 draft has been so far.

 

In 2001, the next 4 college pitchers taken after Jones are 2 inconsistent middle relievers Aaron Hielman and Brad Hennessy, and 2 small college nobodies, Justin Pope and Jason Bulger.

 

 

While I agree the Brewers need pitching at the MLB level, I just don't think drafting it is the best way for the Brewers to aquire it. The Twins traded Matt Garza for OF help, and the Giants made Matt Cain and Tim Lincecome available this past offseason for a young stud slugger, but the Brewers couldn't jump into that because they didn't have a replacement available for there young sluggers they have in place on the big club. With Laporta and Gamel being ready next year, the Brewers will be able to get involved into these type of deals.

 

The Brewers have an excellent track record of drafting and developing hitters, and should stick to what they do best. Let other teams be the suckers who roll the dice on pitching.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Couple of questions.

 

1. This is the year that the new rule involving unsigned players goes into affect, isn't it?

 

2. If it is how deep into the draft does the "compensation" go, and does it include supplemental round selections?

 

3. Is this going to reduce the chances and numbers of players falling due to signability concerns? Rick Porcello is an example from last year.

 

4. With the Brewers having so many selections would it be wise for them to drafte one two "hard signs", and just hope they can convince them to sign? Eric Hosmer was a name that was brought up as a Boras client asking for the moon. If does fall due due to signability would that be something the Brewers might due with the new rules in place? Kyle Long is another example, a player who many people seem to think has uber potential, but as you stated in another thread probably is going to go to College.

[colbyjack]

1. No, last year was.

 

2. Unsigned first, first round supplemental and second round picks garner a pick right after the same overall selection in the following year's draft. Unsigned third round picks garner a supplemental third-round pick in between the third and fourth rounds.

 

3. Probably not. As we saw last year, the compensation system and the universal signing date didn't do much to curtail signing bonuses.

 

4. We've talked about this a few times before, and I just don't see this happening. The Brewers have a history sticking to slot value, and all of their early picks based on slot value alone are going to cost in the $5-5.5 million dollar range. Plus they have a history of getting their draft picks signed relatively quickly so they can plug them into the system and get them playing ASAP. I personally would rather see as many draft picks get into the system now instead of playing hardball with someone just because you know you'll get a comp pick in '09.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Colby, with this many picks though and probably a good amount next year (Sheets & Gagne) this would be the time to do something like that and try and hit a HR. the draft is so tough to get it right. I wonder how much money major league baseball teams waste on players and they really never get much of a return. the NFL and NBA in that respect have it right.

[colbyjack]

KC, I know what you're saying, and I'm not saying I disagree with it, but I am saying that I'll believe it when I see it. Just look at the Brewers drafting history, as there is no evidence in the early rounds of the team taking a player that has fallen due to monetary demands, and I don't understand why anyone would expect that to change in a year where they already are going to have to spend a ton of money to get the players signed at the picks they do have.

 

I wonder how much money major league baseball teams waste on players and they really never get much of a return. the NFL and NBA in that respect have it right.

 

Do they really? From a slotting standpoint, yes, the NFL and NBA have better systems in place to make sure the best players are going to the worst teams, but there are still plenty of busts in both of those sports as well. I think the immediate returns in those two sports are often confused with overall success as it pertains to the draft as a source for procuring talent.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Colby,

 

 

Baseball has to flush more money down the toilet on players that never make it to the majors more than the NBA & NFL combined, obviously the NBA has only 2 rounds and the NFL has 7 rounds but both of those leagues negotiated that. If baseball was smart they would cut down the rounds, implement a slot system and make ALL players have to go through the draft process, thus not allowing the Japanese players to play for whoever they want. Wait til you see the $$$ that Darvish is going to get.

[colbyjack]

I agree 100%, MLB would be much better off with some kind of slotting system. I think the MLB would love to do that, and while the draft doesn't pertain too much to the player's union since draftees aren't subjected to the MLBPA, MLB would still have to give up something to get the players to agree to a more rigid slotting system like the NBA and NFL have.

 

My point is that both the NBA and NFL has seen plenty of players with incredibly high expectations fizzle and burn just like players that go early in the MLB draft. The bulk of the key talent that comes to MLB from the draft still comes predominantly from the first round.

 

And the worldwide draft was supposed to become a reality per the last collective bargaining agreement, but I think everyone involved realized how difficult that would be to accomplish, and quite honestly I don't see that happening anytime soon. Again, I agree with you that Darvish is going to get silly money, and he's probably going to get that money from one of the usual suspects (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Mariners).

[KCBrewerfan34]

Colby,

Since your online, besides Alvarez are they any other "can't miss" guys in this draft?

 

Thanks,

Mike

 

 

 

[colbyjack]

Sorry I didn't pop in since my last post last night. I'm always a little shy to label a guy as can't miss, since prospects more hyped up than Pedro Alvarez have failed.

 

I think a trio of 1B including Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso and Eric Hosmer have a pretty solid chance of making the big leagues and being successful.

 

Tim Beckham has a great collection of tools, and I don't really see him failing.

 

Brian Matusz has such good stuff I have a hard time imaginging him not having some success in the big leagues. Aaron Crow has the necessary plus fastball velocity and movement to succeed with that pitch alone.

 

Buster Posey should be able to hit, but I still do question if he's going to be enough of an impact player to warrant a possible first overall pick.