Why Gwynn?

[zzzmanwitz]

I said it in the IGT and I will say it here....

 

Tony Gywnn Jr is where OPS goes to die.

[Gopher74]

Doesn't Gwynn know that that type of play doesn't help his OPS, and that's the main thing that makes a player good.

Not sure why this would be in Blue. OPS is absolutely, without question the "thing" that makes a hitter good. Being able to get on base, and what those produce is pretty much the very core of offense.

 

It's this type of thing that gets me kinda spinning. I argue to the side that says Gwynn is what he is and he'll never get better because I see a player who got rushed, wasn't very good early, but just keeps improving each and every year, and some almost discredit him because his name is Gwynn.

 

But then you've got the other side who takes 3 games, where frankly he was good, but it's not like he was Alex Rodriquez thus far. What he can potentially become, at his best, is a good solid serviceable CF'er. Possibly the type that you look to replace, but one that you can win with. Yet, again, you get a couple good games, and the "I told you so's" come flying.

 

I think that every-single-fan hopes they do well, but man-o-man let's not get carried away. Nice job early Tony, but 4 hits does not a season make.

[Gopher74]

So let's get this clear, Rluz. You'd rather have Gabe "No Range" Gross in CF?

This isn't fair at all. You know that I tend to lean on the "Pro-Gwynn" side of things, but where do you get that Gabe Gross doesn't have any range? He's not Tony Gwynn Jr as a defensive player, but he can play a serviceable CF. He also brings an element that Gwynn does, and when Gross is at his best offensively, he's far superior to Tony Gwynn Jr. The thing is, Gwynn's more consistently playing well, and Gross tends to be very up and down, but this doesn't mean that Gross is this terrible CF'er.

 

I don't get into all those crazy Range statistics so I can't prove Gross's range is bad, but I've seen him enough to know it's not much better than average. I do know that Gwynn has a ton more range than Gross. I don't think that needs to be proven. I'm sure somebody's going to bring back some crazy statistic to make me appear wrong so let's hear it.

 

I think you know where I come out on the defensive metrics out there. Even Bill James, the person that most on this forum revere has said that Defensive Metrics are incredibly incomplete and unreliable. There are things you simply cannot accurately evaluate. How can you say that this player gets to more balls in his zone, or outside of his zone when there are so many variables. Hell, just a very basic one, how hard was the ball hit? Was it a line drive that was hit on a line and is slicing away, or was it a lazy pop-up that lands in the same place?

 

I also agree that for some reason people argue that Tony Gwynn Jr isn't a top notch Defensive CF'er for whatever reason, citing again defensive metrics over the opinions of virtually any scouts who's ever seen him play, and the Brewers FO.

 

That being said, you go from Gabe "No Range" Gross to how you've seen him play and he's average defensively. That's the point the Gross advocates argue. If the defensive end is close enough, Gross brings more value because of his offense, at least that's the argument for Gwynn.

 

The fact is, I'm in favor of Gwynn starting, but it's simply not that obvious. One of the biggest reasons I like Gwynn starting, beyond the fact that I want to see what he can do, I would LOVE to be able to deal him to a team, once again, like the Rangers who have always liked him, and now see him as their starter after he posts a .330/.380 line with 10 SB's a couple weeks into the seasonhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[olliegjw]

Doesn't Gwynn know that that type of play doesn't help his OPS, and that's the main thing that makes a player good.

Not sure why this would be in Blue. OPS is absolutely, without question the "thing" that makes a hitter good. Being able to get on base, and what those produce is pretty much the very core of offense.

 

I didn't say make the "hitter" good. I said the "player". So many people on here argue that Gross should start over Gwynn because he will have a higher OPS. Well, OPS isn't everything. Defense, baserunning, and instincts are all values that can't be judged by numbers. The Brewers have plenty of OPS friendly players, and that didn't get them to the playoffs last year. Adding guys like Cameron and Kendall will help with the un-measurables mentioned. Gwynn also brings those, but is obviously the 4th outfielder once Cameron returns.

[lukevan]

OPS isn't everything, but the thing is Gross is a LOT better offensively than Gwynn, better OBP, MUCH better SLG. The difference would be difficult to make up defensively IMO, especially when considering that Gross could be considered slightly above average defensively.

[olliegjw]

OPS isn't everything, but the thing is Gross is a LOT better offensively than Gwynn, better OBP, MUCH better SLG. The difference would be difficult to make up defensively IMO, especially when considering that Gross could be considered slightly above average defensively.

If Gross is anywhere above average, then Gwynn is a gold glover. I don't care about defensive metrics, just watch them play.

 

I'm not sure Gross will have a better OBP. He has had one season significantly higher than Gwynn's career OBP in the majors...and Gwynn is only 23. Gwynn will improve, Gross' numbers have gotten worse over the last year or two.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gwynn is a below average hitter, according to OPS and any other offensive statistic

 

Including that time-honored one, "batting average"

 

 

I've seen him enough to know it's not much better than average.

 

There's that classic line again... And also, if that's what you "know", why say something absolutely ridiculous like "no range" to convey that?

[DrWood]

can we table this discussion until Gwynn is hitting below .400?

[zzzmanwitz]

can we table this discussion until Gwynn is hitting below .400?

 

That's the point. 2 games isn't enough to say anything. That's why we look at years and years of past performance.

[Ayt]

If Gross is anywhere above average, then Gwynn is a gold glover. I don't care about defensive metrics, just watch them play.

 

I'm not sure Gross will have a better OBP. He has had one season significantly higher than Gwynn's career OBP in the majors...and Gwynn is only 23. Gwynn will improve, Gross' numbers have gotten worse over the last year or two.

He's actually already 25.

 

[olliegjw]

If Gross is anywhere above average, then Gwynn is a gold glover. I don't care about defensive metrics, just watch them play.

 

I'm not sure Gross will have a better OBP. He has had one season significantly higher than Gwynn's career OBP in the majors...and Gwynn is only 23. Gwynn will improve, Gross' numbers have gotten worse over the last year or two.

He's actually already 25.

 

 

My mistake, but the premise remains the same.

[lukevan]

I didn't even mention defensive metrics ollie. I too have watched games and I don't think Gross is any worse than average, he has more speed than he's given credit for and has a strong arm. I've granted that Gwynn is a better defender but was more concerned with gauging what each player would produce, consider BOTH offense and defense and I'll take Gross.

[logan82]

I am not trying to insult TGJ in this post, but he currently has a lower OBP than BA. I know people asked if that was possible last year, and well, it is.

[RobDeer 45]

Where are all the Gabe Gross lovers? Haven't heard from you all in awhile. We need Gwyn back in the lineup and Gross is nothing more than a fill in corner outfielder and pinch hitter. It's unfortunate that TGJ got hurt because we need him in the lineup. Gross is so ugly in CF that it makes me sick when he's out there. Some of you need to eat crow on your big predictions for Gabe Gross.

[1992casey]

Some of you need to eat crow on your big predictions for Gabe Gross.

 

Based on 35 plate appearances?

[BrewCrewForever]

I look forward to Gwynn coming back. So honestly when Cameron is back and Gwynn and Kapler are both healthy what happens? Does Gross go down to AAA? Do they trade someone? Should be very interesting.

[lukevan]

Gwynn is out OPS-ing Gross by over .800 points, how much more evidence do you need?!

[theavrock]

Some of you need to eat crow on your big predictions for Gabe Gross.

 

Yes because its a contest so that you can prove how smart you really are. Everyone who said Gabe Gross would do better than Gwynn is a moron and a crow eater. He is not doing well right now you're right. Happy?

[jazzytrav]

It's unfortunate that TGJ got hurt because we need him in the lineup.

Need? I'll take Cameron, thanks though.

 

Gross is so ugly in CF that it makes me sick when he's out there.

Yeah, that sliding catch that saved a run was so ugly.

 

Some of you need to eat crow on your big predictions for Gabe Gross.

Who had big predictions? Some people just thought that Gabe Gross had a statistically better chance of being a better fill-in for Cameron. Will you "eat crow" if Gwynn comes back and stinks and Gross knocks a few homers out over the next few weeks?

[RobDeer 45]

Yes I will. And Gwyn's sample size is way too small right now to say he's a stud but I think he will average out to be ok. Gross could come around but I think he's nothing but a sub. And as for a sliding catch, sure that was nice but there have been several other balls that an average CF would have caught that he did not get to. He's not a center fielder, period.

[endaround]

He averaged out to suck last year. His minor league stats don't lead to him being average. His best hope is a not quite as good Willy Tavares.

[rluzinski]

Gross could come around but I think he's nothing but a sub.

 

Don't most people agree with that? I mean, I like Gross as much as anyone but I don't think he projects as a major league starter.

[jazzytrav]

I don't think anyone has ever projected Gross as anything more than a sub. Not this year anyway. But Gwynn doesn't project as anything more than a sub, either. I just don't understand where these magical statistics are that show us that Gwynn can be an average player. He's a speed/defense guy and I like him for that, but I don't think he's far superior to Gross just because Gross got a slow start and Gwynn got a fast start.

[strawbossisevil]

No one saw Gross as an ideal starter, only that he would be offensively better than Gwynn. And like it or not, those who feel that way have a bit more than 35 ABs on their side. So hold on to your crow, you might be eating it later.

[BrewCrewForever]

Both guys are 4th OF's no more no less. I think most can agree on that. I guess it depends what you want in a 4th guy. Speed, defense and a decent batting average you go with Gwynn. If you want a little more power then you go with Gross.