Why Gwynn?

[Bernman23]

I've pointed out before how fallacious it is to use Gwynn's minor league numbers as a whole because of the way they rushed him.

 

What else are we supposed to use then? He wasn't rushed either. Unless you consider Fielder, Weeks, Hardy and Hart to be rushed as well as they were they same ages as Gwynn at the same levels (Fielder was actually younger.)

 

2004 should be completely thrown out of any discussion regarding Gwynn.

 

Are you kidding? Why? Because he was awful?

 

In 2003 and 2005 his K/PA rate was 1/8.4 and 1/7.8.

 

His K% was 13.1% in 2003 and 14.7% in 2005. Again not bad but hardly handling the bat.

 

You didn't include walks as plate appearances in your totals, which benefitted Ichiro's numbers.

 

Yes Gwynn does walk more but that hardly has to do with handling the bat. His swing is far too long for him to consistently make contact and slap the ball all over the place imo.

He was rushed obviously and saying that he wasn't is proving that you have a bias here. Gwynn skipped A+ all together. That's not the typical blueprint for a minor league prospect. JJ Hardy had 336 at bats in A+. Corey Hart had almost 400. Even a great prospect like Braun had 226 at bats at A+. It's not just about age, but rather not overwhelming prospects with such major jumps in competition. Low A to Double A is a major jump in competition. And he wasn't even considered near the level of a prospect as Braun, Hart, and Hardy were. He was promoted that quickly simply because he was tied to Weeks and Fielder.

You throw 2004 out of the equation BECAUSE HE WAS MOVED TOO QUICKLY. Moving too quickly was the cause of his awful season. I'm not throwing it out because it was simply awful. Your logic was circular. If you want to talk about his PCL performance, that's valid.

 

I brought up walks for two reasons. First, each walk represents a plate appearance. In each plate appearance you could be struck out. So they should be included in a players strikeout percentage. You're still not factoring them into the percentage of time a player strikes out. All you're doing is dividing strikeouts by raw at bat totals. Strikeout percentage should be K's/AB's+BB's+Sacrifices. Tony Gwynn walks a higher percentage of the time than Ichiro (at least he did in the minors). He also sacrifices himself more than Ichiro. So he's going to be punished more so than Ichiro if you're just looking at raw AB's. Second, I used his walks to refute his strikeout percentage as the sole indicator of how well he handles the bat. They show he's more willing to work the count than some. If you work the count, you have more 2 strike situations, and thus more of an opportunity to strike out on one pitch. He's not like Ichiro or Vlad Guerrero, who pretty much swing at anything near the zone from the first pitch in an at bat. The more you swing, the less chance you have to strikeout, as long as you aren't swinging at junk.

[Gopher74]

Yes those Brewer scouts and management that said Braun would be fine at 3B and that Weeks is good at 2B now.

And there it is. I always thought that some people thought they'd be better making the decisions than the Brewers front office, I'd just never seen anyone come so close to actually coming out and saying it.

 

It's amazing that people are better than one of the best teams in baseball in terms of scouting and player development right here in our midst.

 

[danzig6767]

I think most of the anti Gwynn crowd dislike him because we do not believe he can get on base enough. That is the heart of the issue. If he were to play every day I think his OBP would be about .340 with no power and only slightly above average defense.

I share your concerns about Gwynn as a hitter, but i think he's better than a just slightly better than average defensive player which also happens to be at a premium defensive position. So i wouldn't be comfortable having Gwynn be handed the everyday CF job right now for 162 games, but in a role as the primary CF while Cameron is out, i'm fine with Tony getting that gig.

I'd rather have a very skilled defensive CF with lesser offensive abilities than a guy like Gross with better offensive abilities, but a questionable defender at such an important defensive position. Overall though, i think what each guy brings in positives/negatives would pretty much cancel each other out and bring roughly equal end results. I just on a personal level don't like/trust having guys fumble out there on defense, particularly a very important one like CF.

 

[ELCABALLO45]

Can't we all just cheer for the guy and hope he does well? I mean that would mean he is helping the Brewers win. Right? All Gross lovers, get over it. All Gwynn lovers. He will NEVER be a star centerfielder. He is what he is, and im glad we have him for the first 25 games. Why can't we all just cheer for the guy?

[endaround]

Yes those Brewer scouts and management that said Braun would be fine at 3B and that Weeks is good at 2B now.

And there it is. I always thought that some people thought they'd be better making the decisions than the Brewers front office, I'd just never seen anyone come so close to actually coming out and saying it.

 

It's amazing that people are better than one of the best teams in baseball in terms of scouting and player development right here in our midst.

 

Its amazing that some people can't see that sometimes that front office makes mistakes, that sometimes they just say things that aren't true.

 

[jazzytrav]

Even if I don't think he will develop into a major league starter is it OK if I pull for him as well?

I think it's important to remember that this is how the "Gwynn haters" really feel. For the most part, no one wants him to be unsuccessful. Just because someone doesn't think that a Brewers player will be successful doesn't mean that he/she doesn't want them to be.

[Tbadder]

Even if I don't think he will develop into a major league starter is it OK if I pull for him as well?

This is important to mention because the vibe here (as I read it, so I could be wrong) is that we don't root for those who fit the numbers, for those who don't project. There's an "I told you so" syndrome that makes anyone who supports players who don't project defensive, and those who don't support that player offensive. There are so many intelligent people on this website, it's really astounding, but at times, it stops becoming a forum for ideas, and more of an "I'm right and you're wrong" lambast.

[Glennron]

Isn't sarcasm supposed to be in blue?

Sorry, I guess I thought the "begging for change" was a giveaway, but oh well.

 

I'll gladly insert my foot in my mouth if Gwynn plays well this first month, I'm just not as confident as some of the people are here.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Aren't you the guy who said you were glad Cappy got hurt?

Yes and it helps the Brewers that he's not in the rotation. Gwynn playing bad would hurt the Brewers. I just like whatever is best for the team.

[Blazer25]

Swinging bunts count against your OBP because it's too difficult for official scorers to determine if they're intentional or not. I'd rather a guy attempt a swinging bunt than an outright sacrifice, if they have that level of bat control.

 

Define a swinging bunt? Are you talking about a guy taking a swing and getting jammed, AKA a "swinging bunt"? That's purely a bad swing and not in any way a better alternative to a sacrifice. It surely doesn't show good bat control.

 

If you're talking about bunting for a hit (drag bunt), they're not scored as sacrifices because the intent is not to give yourself up or "sacrifice" but to try and get on base. Thus an unsuccessful bunt for hit attempt is an 0-1 where a successful sac bunt is a 0-0.

 

You rarely see a hitter drag bunt in a sacrifice situation because they are a lower % play. They are also a lost art.

 

 

 

A swinging bunt, like Ichiro often uses, has a higher propensity of being a hit. Tony has that Ichiro-like bat control, at least to a lesser extent. He's executed a few swinging bunts during his time in Milwaukee.

Wha?

 

Tony Gwynn is a fine player, a great guy to have on your bench to pinch run, play defense and fill in for a injured player. He is not in any conceiveable way similar to Ichiro other than their size.

 

Any "swinging bunts" TGJ has executed as a Brewer have been of the, "I got jammed and got lucky" variety.

 

 

Ichiro has the best plate coverage and bat control of anyone in MLB currently. He takes pitches at his shoetops on the black and sprays them to the gaps. His hitting style is something that very few players are going to be successfull copying. His "slash and dash" approach is successfull for him because of his amazing bat control.

 

Tony Gwynn is a guy with no pop in his bat who has a decent eye, is a decent bunter and can run. He is going to have to draw a lot of walks to justify his lack of pop to be an everyday player for any team.

 

Again TGJ is a great player to have on the bench and a serviceable fill-in.

 

Lets not start comparing him to a guy who has averaged 231 hits a year in the big leagues.

 

 

[RobDeer 45]

I hate to keep getting after this but Gwyn doubled again, and then his speed came through when he swiped home after Rickie ran over Soto. Awesome play and again, the reason I love him is his Defense and speed. If he hits better than average its a huge bonus. LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!

[zzzmanwitz]

Dang, he may actually bring some good trade value when Cam comes back. Keep it up TGJ!

[TerraceReserved]

Ya seriously, if he keeps hitting well we could actually net some good talent in a trade.

[brewizard]

I love watching TGJr play. I hope he matures into a fantastic Brewers center fielder.

 

There. I said it. And I don't care what the haters think. I just like the guy.

[olliegjw]

I hate to keep getting after this but Gwyn doubled again, and then his speed came through when he swiped home after Rickie ran over Soto. Awesome play and again, the reason I love him is his Defense and speed. If he hits better than average its a huge bonus. LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Doesn't Gwynn know that that type of play doesn't help his OPS, and that's the main thing that makes a player good.

[TerraceReserved]

I hate to keep getting after this but Gwyn doubled again, and then his speed came through when he swiped home after Rickie ran over Soto. Awesome play and again, the reason I love him is his Defense and speed. If he hits better than average its a huge bonus. LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Doesn't Gwynn know that that type of play doesn't help his OPS, and that's the main thing that makes a player good.

 

Plays like that certainly are good. But the dig at OPS is not needed. Gwynn is a below average hitter, according to OPS and any other offensive statistic, and an above average defender and baserunner. OPS (or more plainly OBP and SLG separately) doesn't determine how good a player is, but it determines how good of a hitter someone is.

[rluzinski]

Baserunning has value but when compared to the ability to get on base and hit for power... not so much. I don't say that because I'm a hater, I say it because it's been studied.

 

I've said this before but I WISH that players like Gwynn (on the offensive side) had more value. It's a fun brand of baseball to watch. But because of the power hitters in modern baseball, his kind of offensive value gets left in the dust. I think it should be obvious that a HR equals a whole lot of SBs and extra bases advanced on a single.

 

I think Gwynn has the potential to have a lot of value on the defensive side of things. I'm just not convinced that it's enough to justify starting him if he can't hit well enough. If he was a SS, it would be completely different.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So let's get this clear, Rluz. You'd rather have Gabe "No Range" Gross in CF?

[rluzinski]

I wasn't talking about the Brewers' current situation. I'm just trying to answer, "Does Gwynn project to be a viable starting CF in the major leagues?" My answer is no; others say yes. The earth continues to turn.

[brewerfan0425]

Can you really "project" someones potential?? Do these projections take into account the persons work ethic, heart or desire to succeed?

[Fatter than Joey]

Clearly Tony Gwynn Jr. does not have a desire to succeed.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

No, because if you can't measure it with a statistic it is not important.

Gwynn could easily be a starting CF for some team. Just not the Brewers. If he did start in CF, he'd be bottom tier, but nonetheless, he very well could. I'd rather have Gwynn in CF over Nyjer Morgan, Norris Hopper, Nate McClouth, or Corey Patterson.

[TerraceReserved]

So let's get this clear, Rluz. You'd rather have Gabe "No Range" Gross in CF?

 

Can you prove Gross is a liability in the field? Most every system has him average or slightly above average.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't get into all those crazy Range statistics so I can't prove Gross's range is bad, but I've seen him enough to know it's not much better than average. I do know that Gwynn has a ton more range than Gross. I don't think that needs to be proven. I'm sure somebody's going to bring back some crazy statistic to make me appear wrong so let's hear it.

 

Gross also plays very deep in the OF so that limits is range on balls that are hit to shallow CF.

[PeaveyFury]

"Does Gwynn project to be a viable starting CF in the major leagues?"

 

I guess that depends on the definition of "viable starting CF". Guys like Tom Goodwin and Juan Pierre have been long-time starting CFers in the majors and made tens of millions of dollars while playing worse overall defense than Gwynn (possibly by a large margin).