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Why Gwynn?

DrWood

By DrWood,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

Fear The Chorizo ACL Brewers

Fear The Chorizo

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Edit: I forgot that TGJ did drive in the winning run, which was great. But heading into the 10th, he was not that big of a factor in the game offensively.

 

Take out Gwynn's performance, and heading into the 9th pretty much nobody on the Brewers was a factor in the game offensively, aside from Hall getting picked off 2nd after his double. In addition to him driving in the winning run, Gwynn's sac bunt in the 9th to get Weeks over to 2nd set up Fielder's walk, which set up Braun's single and the rest of that inning, too. Anything to get a guy into scoring position late during a scoreless game is a positive. Gross doesn't make the play Gwynn made on Derosa's liner to deep center to end an inning earlier in the game that would have scored a run, either.

 

I hope we all get that Gwynn isn't going to hit 20 HR and have an OBP of 0.385 - it seems like the Gwynn haters on the board jump all over any post complementing Gwynn with plenty of information indicating that. Other than Gwynn hitting 2nd in the order, I'm perfectly fine with having him on the roster to fill the role he's likely to have as a reserve outfielder once Cameron's back...the Brewers could be paying much more for a player to give you similar production.

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olliegjw Draft Eligible

olliegjw

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Sac bunts and, to a lesser extent for Gwynn, sac flies count against OBP.

Sacrifice bunts to not count against OBP. Sacrifice fly balls do.

H+BB+HBP/AB+BB+HBP+SF is the formula.

Learn something new every day. I always thought that Sac bunts did count as a PA in the calculation, but you are correct.

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TerraceReserved

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Wow. Is there really that much of difference between Gwynn and Gross? I don't see it. Gwynn offers a little better defense and Gross offers more pop.

 

I see a big difference. Gross offers a lot more pop and walks a lot more. Gwynn has a little better D, and maybe add's a run or two of value over the course of a season with his baserunning.

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Bernman23 Draft Eligible

Bernman23

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Sac bunts and, to a lesser extent for Gwynn, sac flies count against OBP.

Sacrifice bunts to not count against OBP. Sacrifice fly balls do.

H+BB+HBP/AB+BB+HBP+SF is the formula.

Swinging bunts count against your OBP because it's too difficult for official scorers to determine if they're intentional or not. I'd rather a guy attempt a swinging bunt than an outright sacrifice, if they have that level of bat control. A swinging bunt, like Ichiro often uses, has a higher propensity of being a hit. Tony has that Ichiro-like bat control, at least to a lesser extent. He's executed a few swinging bunts during his time in Milwaukee.

 

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Oldcity ACL Brewers

Oldcity

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On a different topic, Stevo, where on earth did you get the projections that the offense with Gross would average 5.211 runs per game while the offense with Gwynn would average 4.672 runs? That's 87.318 additional runs over a whole season.

I used PECOTA's projections for this year and plugged them into a lineup analysis at baseball musings. Not to pimp my blog, but I actually made a post on this like a week or two ago where I discussed Gwynn vs. Gross within the lineup thread. That's why I was so ready with that projection. Here, if you care to take a look.

 

http://danandsteve.com/2008/03/16/pecota-lineup-optmization-and-you/

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Bernman23 Draft Eligible

Bernman23

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Tony has that Ichiro-like bat control, at least to a lesser extent.
No he really doesn't. If he did he wouldn't strike out as much as he does.

Nonsense. Ichiro's K numbers aren't that much better than Gwynn's minor league numbers when he had been firmly established at a level. And like I said before, a higher proportion of Gwynn's strikeouts are from taking pitches as opposed to swinging, than most players. Ichiro's not putting full focus into taking walks as often because he has a greater ability at achieving more than one base with a hit. Therefore, he's not going to watch strike 3 as often. Nor is he going to have as many walks.

 

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RightFieldCoder

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A sac bunt is a very intentional out that then does not count against you. A sac fly is a guy trying to go for a HR/gapper who knows if he fails it sill records a run.

 

I freely admit I'm a Gwynn hater. I consider him a 4th OF at best, even in the coming years. I only jump on him to counter those that think he is the starting CF/lead off hitter of the future. With Cameron out for 25 games, I consider the choice of Gwynn/Gross to be a coin flip. Gross has more value as a 3TO-ish guy while Gwynn has speed and defense. It's mostly a coin flip because the guy that does not start can be inserted into the exact situation that calls for his talent. I'm just annoyed that Kendall gets bumped to 9th while Gwynn is put 2nd.

The poster previously known as Robin19, now @RFCoder

EA Sports...It's in the game...until we arbitrarily decide to shut off the server.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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I accused you of not reading my posts because of this comment:

 

"Well let Gwynn get his sample in the Big Leagues and we'll see."

 

As I have already said, he's probably not going to get a sufficient playing time this year for us to prove anything. It's like when people tried to use Gwynn's first 36 AB last year as proof that he justified getting more playing time. When I pointed out the futility in using a sample that small, I was of course labeled a Gwynn hater who only wanted to see him fail. Not too much has changed since then, apparently. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I didn't say they were always right. I do think that they can project better than people on message boards though.

 

Some of those projections have come from people who have also worked for major league teams. Is it OK if I use them?

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Bernman23 Draft Eligible

Bernman23

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Nonsense. Ichiro's K numbers aren't that much better than Gwynn's minor league numbers
Ichiro's K% in his career 9.7%

Gwynn's K% in the minors 16.1%

I've pointed out before how fallacious it is to use Gwynn's minor league numbers as a whole because of the way they rushed him. 2004 should be completely thrown out of any discussion regarding Gwynn. In 2003 and 2005 his K/PA rate was 1/8.4 and 1/7.8. Ichiro's has been 1/11.1 in his career. You didn't include walks as plate appearances in your totals, which benefitted Ichiro's numbers. I don't have their sacrifice bunt totals, but that would further close the gap. I acknowledged Ichiro would a little bit lower K rate because he doesn't work into counts where he could strikeout as much. Still, the discrepancy isn't dramatic. Tony Gwynn Jr. handles the bat well.

 

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TuesdaysWithRillo ACL Brewers

TuesdaysWithRillo

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Is it OK if I use them?
Sure. It's ok if you use them. They are very interesting. I enjoy it when you put them out so we have something to debate about. I might question them once in a while, but go ahead.

 

I think our views on Gwynn are pretty similar. It's just a matter if you value his defense over Gross's offense.

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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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I've pointed out before how fallacious it is to use Gwynn's minor league numbers as a whole because of the way they rushed him.

 

What else are we supposed to use then? He wasn't rushed either. Unless you consider Fielder, Weeks, Hardy and Hart to be rushed as well as they were they same ages as Gwynn at the same levels (Fielder was actually younger.)

 

2004 should be completely thrown out of any discussion regarding Gwynn.

 

Are you kidding? Why? Because he was awful?

 

In 2003 and 2005 his K/PA rate was 1/8.4 and 1/7.8.

 

His K% was 13.1% in 2003 and 14.7% in 2005. Again not bad but hardly handling the bat.

 

You didn't include walks as plate appearances in your totals, which benefitted Ichiro's numbers.

 

Yes Gwynn does walk more but that hardly has to do with handling the bat. His swing is far too long for him to consistently make contact and slap the ball all over the place imo.

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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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That's being a quality fan right there. Him being out of the league means he's playing bad and not helping the Brewers. Muy mal.

Aren't you the guy who said you were glad Cappy got hurt?

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