Why Gwynn?

[Fatter than Joey]

That is why I like Gwynn in CF for these 25 games.

 

Yeah -- I am really not opposed to starting Gwynn when Cameron is on his timeout. I don't want him batting second though at all.

 

I'd rather Gross start than Gwynn -- although I do think Gross makes for a better PH'er than TGJ does.

[endaround]

See I think Gwynn is perfect for Phitting because you can you his big skill of hitting for average and choose where to deploy it. Which is why I'd love Gwynn as bench palyer. But I don't want to deal with the fact that already his father was letting it be know that TGJ deserves more playing time last season.

[bigredrobbo]

All I know is that, fundamentally, TGJ yesterday had hits when nobody else could figure out Z, caught the balls he should have caught (and one that was more difficult), stole a base, laid down a textbook bunt and brought the man in from 3rd on a sac fly.

If every other player on this team is as sound all season, we'll have a good year.

 

And as for the "duckfart" nature of his hits, until they start awarding style points, I'll take 'em any way I get 'em.

 

I was questioned in a recent post about why I thought TGJ was on the bubble between love/hate. This thread kinda proves the polarizing nature here at Brewerfan.

[zzzmanwitz]

On a daily basis, I'll take 2/3 any way I can get it. Looking down the line, I'd rather have a guy hitting the ball hard going 0/4 than a guy barely making contact going 2/3.

[Glennron]

On a daily basis, I'll take 2/3 any way I can get it. Looking down the line, I'd rather have a guy hitting the ball hard going 0/4 than a guy barely making contact going 2/3.

 

Exactly. I wouldn't say Gwynn "figured out" Z. If figuring out a pitcher is a weak grounder and a bloop, what did Fukudome do to the Brewers' pitchers?

[southpaw121505]

All I know is that, fundamentally, TGJ yesterday had hits when nobody else could figure out Z, caught the balls he should have caught (and one that was more difficult), stole a base, laid down a textbook bunt and brought the man in from 3rd on a sac fly.

I agree. Zambrano was dealing and he had 2 of our 3 hits, I don't care how they came. Hall, Hart and Counsell(heh) are the only ones who had solid hits the whole day. I'd take 4 solid ABs over 1 really good one. With the game on the line he did exactly what he was supposed to do in driving the ball.

 

On a daily basis, I'll take 2/3 any way I can get it. Looking down the line, I'd rather have a guy hitting the ball hard going 0/4 than a guy barely making contact going 2/3.

 

What do you mean barely making contact? With how this team has struck out in the past, I'll take one singles hitter who consitently makes contact whether they are seeds or not. Now will he consistently make contact and carry a high enough BA to make him valuable, that remains to be seen. I do think he deserves that shot. Why is it so impossible to consider the fact that he might be one of the rare players in our system that is defense first and took a little longer to come around offensively? I think some people use his dad AGAINST him more than for him. His dad means nothing to me.

[zzzmanwitz]

What do you mean barely making contact? With how this team has struck out in the past, I'll take one singles hitter who consitently makes contact whether they are seeds or not. Now will he consistently make contact and carry a high enough BA to make him valuable, that remains to be seen. I do think he deserves that shot. Why is it so impossible to consider the fact that he might be one of the rare players in our system that is defense first and took a little longer to come around offensively? I think some people use his dad AGAINST him more than for him. His dad means nothing to me.

 

I'm not saying that the rest of the team hit the ball any better than gywnn (except maybe Braun). But if you actually watched the game, you can't say that TGJ actually had a good day offensively. He hit a slow roller on the infield and hit a lazy fly to LF that happened to drop between AmRam and Alfonso. His best AB was his Sac Fly in the 10th. The two hits were lucky.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want Gwynn to have the highest VORP in the majors this month so that someone will give us something decent for him when Cameron is available.

[southpaw121505]

Actually I didn't get to watch the game, don't rub it in. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I was working so I was tuning in on the radio.

 

I don't know, if he can hit around .300 and have a similar obp to Weeks, I'd be happy even if the majority of his hits are slap singles. Will he hit that consistently? Will he walk enough to carry a solid obp like that? Don't know. But I do think it's possible. Like someone else said, I don't think Gross is a slam dunk better. If Gwynn has a mini break out and beats his projections I'll take a no power, defensive on base guy. (If he can be an on base guy which obviously is not a given)

[Thurston Fluff]

The two hits were lucky.

 

You make your own luck to some degree though. He managed to get the bat on the ball which in turn leads to a better chance for luck to play it's part. Guys who can at least make contact will invaribly have better luck than guys who miss the ball completely. With a guy like Gwynn you know when he comes to bat no matter the situation he's not going to be swinging from his heals looking to hit a three run bomb. He will alway look to make contact , put the ball in play and take what he can get. That type of guy will always appear more lucky than high stikeout guys IMO.

[endaround]

If Gwynn is such a contact hitter why does he strike out so much?

[Tbadder]

Look, this discussion is getting pretty long in the tooth. I'm pro-Gwynn, and half the reason I want him to suceed is the sheer amount of crap he takes here. But having said that, he's no better than a fourth outfielder and probably only a fifth outfielder in reality. For him to be a starter he's got to get his OBP way up--I'm guessing in the .380-.390 range. He's got to start developing consistent doubles-power, and as good as he is in the outfield, eventually he's got to be Cameron good. He's also going to have to maximize his situational hitting (bunting, bunting for base hit, sac flies, moving runners, hit and run, etc.). That's an awful lot to ask of a player, and quite frankly I don't think he's got enough development time left to accomplish all that.

 

On the other hand Gross is no better than a fourth outfielder either. He's got more power and a better OBP, but I think he's dead rotten in the field on a team that has to maximize its defense. He's streakier than Gwynn, and when he's en fuego you gotta ride him like they did last year for some time. He doesn't clog up the basepaths, but he doesn't add anything either, Gwynn's definitely better there. So, objectively I'd probably say that Gross is better, but only marginally. So, I'd rather keep Gross as my primary pinch hitter with the thought that he'll get less at bats, but more important at bats.

[Oldcity]

Exactly. I wouldn't say Gwynn "figured out" Z. If figuring out a pitcher is a weak grounder and a bloop, what did Fukudome do to the Brewers' pitchers?

Hollowed out their souls.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Wow. Is there really that much of difference between Gwynn and Gross? I don't see it. Gwynn offers a little better defense and Gross offers more pop. Neither is really starting material and anyone that claims they are, are fooling themselves. We are talking about two backup outfielders. The unfortunate thing is that we don't have a better option to play. Heaven forbid if we lose Braun or Hart to an injury as that is what scares me. Having said all that, given the choice between 2 backup outfielders, Gwynn is the appropriate choice. We have enough offense to win. We need a good defensive outfielder to go get the ball since we already have one liability in the outfield defensively. And this talk about Hart moving to center for 25 games needs to stop too. How often has he played center? It would be one thing I guess if we had a bit time bopper to throw into right but we don't so lets not mess with the defense more than we need to.

[Thurston Fluff]

If Gwynn is such a contact hitter why does he strike out so much?

 

I don't think he struck out yesterday. Since I was referencing his lucky hits in that game I think what he did in that particular game is the appropropriate thing to look at. It was more about his hits being the luck variety but that luck only happens when you actually make contact. Going forward if Gwynn can't cut down his k's then he will not be a starting caliber player IMO. Some think he never will some think it's a little early to think he can't improve on that like other players can improve on their defense.

[rluzinski]

Gwynn played very well defensively yesterday and got a flyball when the team needed it. Two line drive outs would be more encouraging than Gwynn's 2 hits, though. Over the long haul, solid contact is going to get you a lot more hits than bloopers and grounders. Counsell smoked a double into the gap in the 10th. That's what Gwynn needs to be able to do more often if he wants to develop as a hitter, not more weakly hit groundballs or bloopers that are usually going to be converted into an out.

 

You might think that's just me being a "hater" but it's just common sense.

[Glennron]

And this talk about Hart moving to center for 25 games needs to stop too. How often has he played center? It would be one thing I guess if we had a bit time bopper to throw into right but we don't so lets not mess with the defense more than we need to.

I'm glad you can tell other people what to talk about. Isn't he going to play CF next year anyway? And for what it's worth, he's played 51 games out there in the majors so it's not like he'll be totally unaware of what to do. I don't see why putting Gross in right and Hart in center is such a terrible alternative for the first month, it's not like just Gwynn or just Gross will start the next 24 games so why not at least try?

 

This is kind of off topic, but on ESPN it says Hart's zone rating for center is .876, does anyone know what the average is for that position?

[monty57]

As for why the particular concern in this thread was never directed at Krynzel, it's very simple -- nobody ever handed Krynzel the starting CF job. If the Brewers had ever done that, a lot of us (even those of us who cut Krynzel a lot of slack) would have said the same things we're saying about Gwynn: He hasn't earned it; he isn't good enough.

But no one is handing Gwynn a starting job. The primary roles of a fourth or fifth OF are to pinch hit, pinch run and fill in for the starter when necessary. It's now necessary... All Gwynn is doing is filling in for a starter who can't play. The main reason we lost out to the Cubs last year was our defense, and there was obviously a push to improve our defense this offseason. Gwynn is a solid defender. The alternative is moving Hart to CF, decreasing your CF defense, and putting Gross in RF, decreasing your RF defense. Add in Braun, who now has 1 game of ML experience in LF, and you'd be looking at a pretty weak defensive OF. I agree that Gross is better offensively than Gwynn, but I'm sure it's the defense that made Melvin, Yost and Co. make the decision to start Gwynn. Knock on wood, but I'd guess that if Hart or Braun miss some time, it will be Gross and not Gwynn who is subbed in for them.

On a different topic, Stevo, where on earth did you get the projections that the offense with Gross would average 5.211 runs per game while the offense with Gwynn would average 4.672 runs? That's 87.318 additional runs over a whole season. I'd be hard pressed to believe that Fielder would add 87 more runs per season than Dillon... that's a lot of additional offense. To put in in perspective, the Milwuakee Brewers as a team last year scored 801 runs, or 4.94 per game. Since everyone else in the lineup would be the same, would the addition of Gabe Gross really increase our offensive production by that much? Something has to be off with those numbers. Gabe's better than Gwynn offensively, but he's not a young Barry Bonds.

[olliegjw]

On a different topic, Stevo, where on earth did you get the projections that the offense with Gross would average 5.211 runs per game while the offense with Gwynn would average 4.672 runs? That's 87.318 additional runs over a whole season. I'd be hard pressed to believe that Fielder would add 87 more runs per season than Dillon... that's a lot of additional offense. To put in in perspective, the Milwuakee Brewers as a team last year scored 801 runs, or 4.94 per game. Since everyone else in the lineup would be the same, would the addition of Gabe Gross really increase our offensive production by that much? Something has to be off with those numbers. Gabe's better than Gwynn offensively, but he's not a young Barry Bonds.

 

No kidding. Especially when you're talking about a career .245 hitter in Gross. Also, he's only had one season with over a .330 OBP. That make absolutely no sense at all.

[olliegjw]

Gwynn played very well defensively yesterday and got a flyball when the team needed it. Two line drive outs would be more encouraging than Gwynn's 2 hits, though. Over the long haul, solid contact is going to get you a lot more hits than bloopers and grounders. Counsell smoked a double into the gap in the 10th. That's what Gwynn needs to be able to do more often if he wants to develop as a hitter, not more weakly hit groundballs or bloopers that are usually going to be converted into an out.

 

You might think that's just me being a "hater" but it's just common sense.

To be fair, the entire Brewers lineup only hit 3 balls hard all day. Gwynn's speed gives him the ability to get on base, even when he doesn't hit it hard (i.e. his first hit yesterday).

[Bernman23]

If Gwynn is such a contact hitter why does he strike out so much?

That is the claim from TGJr detractors that irks me the most. At least give him credit for his obvious strengths, one of which is handling the bat well.

 

First off, you really can't assume anybody is the player they'll eventually be at their peak, when they've only appeared at the plate about 210-220 times. And that applies to Gwynn more than most. He was rushed through the system to keep pace with supreme prospects like Fielder and Weeks. When allowed to stay at a level for an extensive period, moving at his own pace, he showed marked improvement in plate discipline and overall ability. What his minor league statistics at Brewerfan.net don't include are his playoff statistics, when he played his best baseball at the end of seasons, further indication of his ability to acclimate to a level when give the chance. He has continued this trait at the major league level, raising his OBP 50 points from his 1st to 2nd partial season. We saw how outstanding his plate discipline could be when he was comfortable at levels in the minors. Twice in a minor league season, he walked more than he struck out. 75 K's/appr. 600 PA's and 31 K's/appr. 280 PA's are rather good strikeout ratios when you consider his approach at the plate. He realizes he's not going to win a home run derby, so often he works counts, takes pitches, and tries to get on base. That approach is going to cause strikeouts every now and then because he'll be hitting with 2 strikes. If you've watched Gwynn while he's been at Milwaukee, a disproportionate amount of his strikeouts are looking at pitches on the corners, while he's trying to work the count or draw a walk.

Gwynn shows his bat handling skills with his ability to adjust his approach and make solid contact if that's what the situation calls for. Yesterday provided two great examples.......

 

First, we need to get the runner in scoring position for our boppers any way possible. In a do or die bunting situation, he does, calmly laying down the bunt, successfully moving the runner over. Second, a runner on third w/ less than 2 outs in a key spot. A walk in that situation is only passing the responsibility onto your next teammate to get the RBI. If they give you nothing to hit, there's nothing you can do about that really. But there's no need to take pitches (like TGJr. does if there's nobody on base). If you get a pitch to hit, sweet stroke it into the outfield or bang it on the ground, and let's take control of the game. He took the right approach, executed, and the Brewers went on to win a close game.

Those are perfect examples of why people have been saying Tony handles the bat well, and they aren't located anywhere in the statistics everyone is using to de-legitimize his abilities.

[zzzmanwitz]

To be totally honest, TGJ's bat had minimal effect on the outcome of the game. His two hits and his SB came in innings we failed to score. His bunt took the bat out of our best hitter's hands. I know it wasn't his discision to bunt, but you can't really claim that it was TGJ's savvy that allowed the Crew to win the game.

 

Edit: I forgot that TGJ did drive in the winning run, which was great. But heading into the 10th, he was not that big of a factor in the game offensively.

[olliegjw]

I also want to mention that Gwynn's OBP will always be skewed to the low side. Sac bunts and, to a lesser extent for Gwynn, sac flies count against OBP. Gwynn was 2-3 yesterday but ONLY had a .400 OBP, which was the same as Weeks.

 

I relate Gwynn somewhat to Krabbenhoft for the Badgers. If you just look at stats, you will be misled. There are little things that can be done to help the team, that don't show up in stats.

[olliegjw]

To be totally honest, TGJ's bat had minimal effect on the outcome of the game. His two hits and his SB came in innings we failed to score. His bunt took the bat out of our best hitter's hands. I know it wasn't his discision to bunt, but you can't really claim that it was TGJ's savvy that allowed the Crew to win the game.

 

Edit: I forgot that TGJ did drive in the winning run, which was great. But heading into the 10th, he was not that big of a factor in the game offensively.

There is a reason many stat-heads don't like the runs scored and RBI's stats. Because they are team dependent. His job, at the top of the order, was to get on base. Most days, Fielder or Braun will knock him in.

 

About taking the bat out of Fielder's hands, that was a good thing also. Instead of one guy on base with a good hitter up, the Brewers got two guys on base with an equally good hitter up. As a result, both Weeks and Fielder scored without the need for a homerun.

[Ennder]

There is a reason many stat-heads don't like the runs scored and RBI's stats. Because they are team dependent. His job, at the top of the order, was to get on base. Most days, Fielder or Braun will knock him in.

 

That is circular logic though, most days if Gwynn hits like he did yesterday he'll not get on base. The ball he hit the best was the one that he got out on. It is really hard to look at one game and find meaning in it.

 

Having said that if you look at the one game and his spring training he does seem to be making contact more often and driving the ball a little more both of which are good things. His value in the long run is probably going to come down to how many walks he takes though. He needs to get that BB rate up to get his OBP up over .360 and then we have a player(even if only as a 4th OF) even if the gap power never shows up.

[Bernman23]

I also want to mention that Gwynn's OBP will always be skewed to the low side. Sac bunts and, to a lesser extent for Gwynn, sac flies count against OBP. Gwynn was 2-3 yesterday but ONLY had a .400 OBP, which was the same as Weeks.

 

I relate Gwynn somewhat to Krabbenhoft for the Badgers. If you just look at stats, you will be misled. There are little things that can be done to help the team, that don't show up in stats.

Good point. I thought the .326 OBP he had last year wasn't really representative of his performance, even with the late season slump. Sacrifices shouldn't count against your OBP, just like they don't count against your average.