Why Gwynn?

[LouisEly]

TGJ would like to tell everyone here to take todays game and put it in their pipe and smoke it.

[JohnBriggs12]

"It's that some people think he's been given an unfair advantage because of his last name"

 

That indeed is absurd. The advantage he's gotten is due to his status as a high round 2 pick, not his name. All high round picks get advantages over lower round picks. High round picks don't need to put up dazzling stats to get moved up in the system. Their moved up because of what their potential is thought to be.

 

Gross got the same treatment coming through the Blue Jay system as a number one pick. He never set the world on fire in the minor leagues either but moved up real fast. But now at 28 with over 600 fairly modest ML AB's, he is what he is, a solid major league bench player.

[Glennron]

TGJ would like to tell everyone here to take todays game and put it in their pipe and smoke it.

 

I bet he would've like to after last April, too. Obviously he played a good game, but his two hits were a very weak grounder, and a bloop that found a hole. Then he hit a routine flyball. I'm not trying to downplay the Sac Fly because obviously his approach was to not do too much, and he did a great job, but he's all of a sudden a saint because of a timely routine flyball? I'll admit he made some nice catches, but even the "haters" have admitted he's an above-average defender.

 

Again, I'm not trying to downplay his good game, but for the TGJ "supporters" to gloat based on one game is a joke.

[rluzinski]

It just gets old when people throw around these projections like they are fact.

 

I throw them around like they are the best statistical guess, based on past performance, nothing more. As I've said many times before, projections are not the final word, especially for young prospects. I don't have access to professional scouting information, however. Very few of us message-boarders do. Because I'm not confident in my own ability to objectively assess a player's raw tools, I rely almost exclusively on past performance. I use the projection systems I feel do the best job of using past performance to objectively estimate future performance. I readily concede that they are still just an estimate with a high degree of uncertainty.

 

There's a chance that any young player could make that jump and prove his projection completely wrong. So the question isn't really if a player has ANY chance of developing into a starter, it's if that chance is large enough to justify giving the player significant enough playing time to find out. I've simply offered up my OBJECTIVE opinion that the odds of Gwynn becoming a major leaguer does not justify giving him enough AB to really find out. I can't speak for anyone else but if gwynn does end up getting enough ABs and proves me wrong with spectacular play, I will be very happy to be proven wrong.... you know.. because I'm a Brewer fan.

[bjkrautk]

"It's that some people think he's been given an unfair advantage because of his last name"

 

That indeed is absurd. The advantage he's gotten is due to his status as a high round 2 pick, not his name. All high round picks get advantages over lower round picks. High round picks don't need to put up dazzling stats to get moved up in the system. Their moved up because of what their potential is thought to be.

It's a bit circular; a lot of the people who think Tony shouldn't get the opportunity to start the bulk of these 25 games are the same group of people who thought he was drafted in the second round because he's Tony Sr.'s son. (I was one of the voices advocating the Brewers draft Anthony rather than letting San Diego take him with the next pick.) I'm speaking in generalizations, because I can barely remember who said what last season, much less when Gwynn was drafted.

I wouldn't say that Tony's my favorite player...or even someone who's going to be an everyday starter. I do think he's good enough to be a bench player, and could start as a complementary guy on some teams. He's never going to be Carlos Beltran (or Mike Cameron), but I have a bias for guys who get on base....as fewer outs by your complementary guys means more AB's for your star players.

 

For that reason, my gripe is not with people who question whether TGJr. is good enough to be a 162-game starter....that's an open question. My gripe is against people who don't think he should be starting for the lion's share of the next 25 games, as an injury (or suspension) of a starter is exactly the circumstances in which you should give the prospect an opportunity to show what he can do. Moreover, the difference between Gross and Gwynn isn't significant enough to justify starting the probably mediocre player over the might be decent player.

[Ennder]

I think most of the anti Gwynn crowd dislike him because we do not believe he can get on base enough. That is the heart of the issue. If he were to play every day I think his OBP would be about .340 with no power and only slightly above average defense.

 

I think he was mishandled last season, he should have never been in the majors. A full growth season at AAA would have shown us a lot about whether or not he is a future starter or just a 4th OF. Instead he got jerked all over the place and I still don't know if he'll ever be a productive full timer. He certainly looked better in spring training and on opening day than last year but he still hasnt' shown the gap power he needs to develop or the ability to take enough BBs to keep a good OBP. I don't know if he is going to show those things without fulltime play somewhere.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I rely almost exclusively on past performance.

That's the biggest flaw in your projections. We always talk about not having a large enough sample. Well let Gwynn get his sample in the Big Leagues and we'll see. There really is nothing to argue about here after the month of April because Cameron will be back. It would be nice to get something good in return for Gwynn in a trade so some other team's message board can argue about him.

[jazzytrav]

Theres a large majority of people on this site that hate TGJ so much they try to make their opinion of him not being a Major League caliber player a FACT when it's just an opinion. You can take your pecota and whatever projections there are and read em like a bible. The fact is TGJ is a smart team player who does anything to win and you need those type of guys on your team.

Wow. It's weird how I've always kinda liked TGJ but I never thought that there were people here, other than a few stragglers maybe, that "hate" TGJ. I definitely wouldn't say it's a large majority. No one said TGJ shouldn't play. Most just don't think that he's good enough to be a 150 game starter for a team is good as the Brewers.

 

And projections are exactly what they claim to be...projections. This isn't a real difficult concept to understand; a projection, by definition, is not prophetic. It's just a projection. I probably wouldn't project very well to start on a pennant-race team in major league baseball. Should I just be given the chance anyway? Just to see?

 

 

TWR- How is it a flaw to base projections on past performance? That's the only thing to go off. We knew that Braun and Prince would have power because of past performance. We know that Rickie has the ability to hit better than he has based on past performance. How else do you come up with a projection?

[rluzinski]

That's the biggest flaw in your projections. We always talk about not having a large enough sample. Well let Gwynn get his sample in the Big Leagues and we'll see.

 

You couldn't have possibly read anything more than the first sentence of my last post.

[Bring Back the Stein]

All I know is that he had a brilliant 0-2 at bat, slammed that meat to put in a run, and made at least two, possibly three, incredibly athletic plays in CF. Outside of Sheets, the obvious MVP last night, that kid is doing all that's important. All Brewers fans must love this development, whatever happens to Tony's kid.

[LouisEly]

Obviously he played a good game, but his two hits were a very weak grounder, and a bloop that found a hole. Then he hit a routine flyball.

 

Yep. Amazing what can happen when you put the bat on the ball and don't strike out.

 

As a friend of mine once said, "You don't draw pictures on the scoreboard."

[olliegjw]

Why do people have to take it personally when someone doesn't think their favorite player should start?

I don't think anyone has advocated Gwynn being a full-time starter. He is the team's 4th best outfielder, and 2nd best centerfielder. Since the starting CF is out, Gwynn is the best choice to take his place for 25 games. Even if he didn't get a hit today, it was worth having his defense in CF. Gross would not have made some of those plays. Taking away hits from the other team is as important as getting hits.

[Oldcity]

TGJ would like to tell everyone here to take todays game and put it in their pipe and smoke it.

I just knew that people would be justifying Gwynn starting by his "good" game today. What did he do? He hit three weak balls, a nice sac fly and made a couple pretty nice plays in center. So basically, exactly what he is: A no-hit, solid defensive center fielder.

Hart is going to be the center fielder next year. He has played there before. I'd gladly move Hart there for 25 games in a possible downgrade in defense in center and a moderate downgrade in right field defense for the additional offense it provides.

Projected runs/game with today's lineup: 4.672

 

Projected runs/game with Gross over Gwynn: 5.211

No way does defense make up for that huge loss of offense.

 

 

 

[Oldcity]

Taking away hits from the other team is as important as getting hits.

So Adam Everett is as valuable as Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez?

 

[rluzinski]

I think defense can be very valuable. I'm just not ready to compare Gwynn's defense to the best SS in the league quite yet.

[southpaw121505]

So basically, exactly what he is: A no-hit, solid defensive center fielder.

 

 

So, he had no hits, except for the two hits he had?

 

Pretty sure he had 2 of our 3 hits heading into the 9th. I don't care if they were bloop singles or ropes up the middle, he did his job, he got on base in front of our mashers.

[logan82]

I do care what his hits look like. They look the same in the box score, but I am betting that if he continues to hit like he did today that his probability that they keep falling for hits is pretty low.

[endaround]

Wow, yesterday changed my mind. So everybody using it as proof that Gwynn is great also should be calling for Craig Counsell to start over Hardy. After all Counsell had the biggest hit of the game! So Free Craig Counsell!

[giffted1]

Wow, yesterday changed my mind. So everybody using it as proof that Gwynn is great also should be calling for Craig Counsell to start over Hardy. After all Counsell had the biggest hit of the game! So Free Craig Counsell!

Thats not really fair. People are calling for Gwynn to start over Gabe Gross, not some above average center fielder.

[olliegjw]

Taking away hits from the other team is as important as getting hits.

So Adam Everett is as valuable as Derek Jeter or Hanely Ramirez?

 

 

No, because the difference in hits Jeter and HR get is much greater than the difference in hits that Everett takes away. In other words: hits + hits taken away = value.

[Fatter than Joey]

I really didn't see where TGJ took away hits where other (average) CF's would have failed to. I thought he was playing way too shallow on Fukudome, but overall I think he made plays you would expect an average CFer to make.

[endaround]

Yep, I thought there should have been a play on Fukudome's double since it was hit to dead center. The last pop up by Lee might have fallen for another CFer but its hard to say.

[DrWood]

Regarding defense, actually now I'm warming to the idea of Gwynn in CF. Not that I think he is that remarkable, but none of the other guys can play as shallow as he does. If that's where they want to position their CF, it has to be Gwynn.

 

Personally, I'd do whatever I could to get at least a couple starts per week for Crazy Joe Dillon, because his offense is potentially a significant increase over any of the bench players, but if they won't move Hart to CF, they've pretty much tied their hands.

[sheethead]

I do care what his hits look like. They look the same in the box score, but I am betting that if he continues to hit like he did today that his probability that they keep falling for hits is pretty low.

 

I wonder what that probability really is, or where it might come from. Probably from a similar source as the runs scored per game stat with Gwynn v. Gross in the lineup. This takes me back to the ball Luis Gonzalez hit in the World Series to win the championship. Man, what an ugly, lame looking hit. It shouldn't have even counted! Like Maddux said, "chics dig the long ball." Also reminds me of a high school coach who cuts the smaller, scrappy, more fluid fielding contact hitter for the big, awkward dude who might hit 3 home runs.

[MJLiverock]

I really didn't see where TGJ took away hits where other (average) CF's would have failed to. I thought he was playing way too shallow on Fukudome, but overall I think he made plays you would expect an average CFer to make.

That is why I like Gwynn in CF for these 25 games. We have suffered through the Brady Clark play in CF where he had to play on the warning track because he couldn't go back on a ball and yet still got twisted up and let balls over his head while letting everything drop in front of him. Now we Braun trying to learn LF out there so I like having a natural CF'er playing next to him rather than a guy like Gross who is a below average CF'er.

 

Hitting wise I just don't get the Gross love affair, the guy is just as likely to put a OBP of .300 as he is .400. Reading this site he comes off like some kind of all star but he has had some really putrid months in the majors so I just don't see he is some kind of slam dunk better option. Walks may not have slumps but defense doesn't either and Gwynn is a better option in CF defensively.