Why Gwynn?

[trwi7]

Gross isn't a CF'er, and our emphasis is suppose to be on defense this year.

Man, I know that it can get old arguing at times that Gwynn ISN'T a sure fire HOF'er, but to say that he sucks as this point in time is overstated.

 

200 Big league At-Bat's. Let's relax before we say the kid can't play at all.

 

 

The question then becomes is Gwynn's defensive value greater than the offensive value than Gross has? The answer is no, Gross should be starting, Gwynn isn't good. It's not just his 200 major league at bats it's his whole career.

[craigharmann]

The question then becomes is Gwynn's defensive value greater than the offensive value than Gross has? The answer is no, Gross should be starting, Gwynn isn't good. It's not just his 200 major league at bats it's his whole career.

That's the argument, but the problem is which does DM and Yost value more for CF? Defense or Offense? You can have guys who crush the ball, get on base, and hit the ball, but if they can't field anything hit close to them, then why have them out there? I'm not saying Gross is a bad defensive player, but in your response, it sound like you're giving Gwynn credit as to being the better defensive player than Gross.

[Gopher74]

The question then becomes is Gwynn's defensive value greater than the offensive value than Gross has? The answer is no, Gross should be starting, Gwynn isn't good. It's not just his 200 major league at bats it's his whole career.

It certainly wasn't his 06 AAA season.

 

And this team has plenty of offense to get through 25 games with Gwynn in CF, especially with a newfound focus on defense, and Ryan Braun in LF.

 

And as little as ST'ing means, Gwynn's played very well while Gross has struggled. And before anyone starts telling me that ST doesn't mean anything, I'm simply saying he's performed well.

 

[trwi7]

It certainly wasn't his 06 AAA season.

 

I would hardly call a .300/.360/.396 line good. Although for him it would be. That's the problem, in order to be a valuable offensive player he's going to need to bat about .320 or .330.

[Gopher74]

It certainly wasn't his 06 AAA season.

I would hardly call a .300/.360/.396 line good. Although for him it would be. That's the problem, in order to be a valuable offensive player he's going to need to bat about .320 or .330.

You would hardly call a .300/.360 line while playing very good defense in CF good? Huh. I guess we have a fundamental difference of opinion. You need him to post a .330/.400 line before you think he should play over Gross because Gross hits the occasional HR?

You do realize that Gross has a career line of .245/.343/.410, right?

[trwi7]

You would hardly call a .300/.360 line while playing very good defense in CF good? Huh. I guess we have a fundamental difference of opinion. You need him to post a .330/.400 line before you think he should play over Gross because Gross hits the occasional HR?

 

You do realize that Gross has a career line of .245/.343/.410, right?

1. No that's not a good line. His OBP is BA driven and he still can't slug .400. Add that to the fact that that's the highest BA he's ever had and also the highest BABIP he's ever had (.362) it leads me to believe that that was more of a fluke than anything.

 

Yeah I realize that's Gross' line. You realize that's way better than anything Gwynn has ever done, right? Oh yeah, Gross can actually draw walks, too.

[rluzinski]

A .300/.360/.400 line would be great for a good fielding major league CFer. I just don't see Gwynn putting that up this year. It's not impossible, just very unlikely, IMO.

[trwi7]

A .300/.360/.400 line would be great for a good fielding major league CFer. I just don't see Gwynn putting that up this year. It's not impossible, just very unlikely, IMO.

 

Until he proves to major league pitchers that he isn't going to just pop out or ground out weakly to 2nd there is no reason for them to throw him balls. That's going to effect his walk rate. Considering he has never had a .400 SLG% anywhere I'm going to have a hard time believing he'll ever have one.

[Gopher74]

trwi7 wrote:

1. No that's not a good line. His OBP is BA driven and he still can't slug .400.

 

It really is. A .300/.360 line form Gwynn would be more than fine. I simply don't understand how you can argue that's not a good line.

Add that to the fact that that's the highest BA he's ever had and also the highest BABIP he's ever had (.362) it leads me to believe that that was more of a fluke than anything.

 

Saying it's not a good line, and arguing he'll duplicate that again are two entirely different things.

Yeah I realize that's Gross' line. You realize that's way better than anything Gwynn has ever done, right? Oh yeah, Gross can actually draw walks, too.

 

Yes, I realize in his 200 AB's, that's better than Gwynn has done. However when you start out asking at what point does Gross and his offensive edge overcome Gwynn's defensive edge, that's the point I was refering to.

[Gopher74]

A .300/.360/.400 line would be great for a good fielding major league CFer. I just don't see Gwynn putting that up this year. It's not impossible, just very unlikely, IMO.

You're right. It is probably unlikely, I was just refuting the point that was made saying that Gwynn had never had a good season.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

This has been said a million times but if Gwynn's name was John Smith, no one would care about him. Good defense, terrible offense.

Tell that to the Trevor Hoffman and the San Diego Padres.

[rluzinski]

Tell that to the Trevor Hoffman and the San Diego Padres.

 

The worst major league hitters still get on base 30% of the time, so that comment is pretty silly.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The worst major league hitters still get on base 30% of the time, so that comment is pretty silly.

I know it was silly, but it was fun to say. Gwynn is fine in CF for 25 games. Gross is fine as a 4th OF for the rest of the season. No point in arguing between the 2 because there is no end to it.

[bjkrautk]

Does anyone else remember a year ago, when we were discussing how not having Braun on the 25-man roster to start the season might cost the Brewers a lot of early wins?

 

 

For some reason....this discussion reminds me of that one a great deal.

 

 

Just to point it out, Gwynn's numbers as a rookie (at age 24) were better than Gross' at the same age / level:

 

Gwynn ('07): 123 AB, 2 2b, 1 3b, 0 HR, .260 BA / .326 OBP / .317 Slg.

Gross ('04): 129 AB, 4 2b, 3 HR, .209 BA / .311 OBP / .310 Slg.

 

 

Gross has had one good season (2006), the only time that his OBP has been on the good side of .330. Personally, I'm willing to take my chances with the younger guy, since I'd rather give him the chance to show what he can do. It's not like the PECOTA numbers are ever wrong....especially not for younger players.

[brewjihad]

Because he'll be a platoon partner, and Gross will probably get a few starts anyway, I don't think that there's enough difference in offensive production to say that it is stupid to start Gwynn.

 

That said, I think that at best he's a solid fourth outfielder and pinch-hitter. If someone wants to give up a good pitching prospect or two for him at the deadline, I'm all for it.

[Gopher74]

Does anyone else remember a year ago, when we were discussing how not having Braun on the 25-man roster to start the season might cost the Brewers a lot of early wins?

 

 

For some reason....this discussion reminds me of that one a great deal.

Woah, I don't know if I'd compare that situation with Braun to this situation with Gwynn. We all KNEW without doubt that Braun was going to be able to hit at the big league level. At this point, we're hoping that Gwynn may develop into a serviceable offensive player, which he has not proven he is or can be at the big league level yet. I think this is a long cry from the Ryan Braun situation last year. In a best case scenario Gwynn has a good 25 games, and then is out of there and likely back in AAA.

 

[lukevan]

I think he was speaking more about the discussion reminding him, not necessarily making the two situations seem similar.

 

I'm obviously going to say that starting Gwynn over Gross is inane. I doubt the difference will cost them even one win over a 25 game sample and I can understand why they want to give Gwynn a chance. When Cameron comes back I'd pick him as the odd man out, so maybe he'll be tradeable by then. It'll be nice to have Gross to PH v. RHP.

 

But the key for me is Gwynn will have to hit .300 to even come close to the OBP Gross would produce and Gross actually has Jenkins-type power, while Gwynn has none. For Gwynn's defense to make up the offensive difference, I think Gross would have to be using a frying pan instead of a glove. JMHO.

[Tbadder]

It seems obvious that the Crew has tried to trade TGJ in the past. I think this is showcase time hoping someone bites down the road.

[brewjihad]

They offered him in part of a deal to try to get Gagne last year, so they're definitely going to be keeping their options open.

[JohnBriggs12]

This has been said a million times but if Gwynn's name was John Smith, no one would care about him. Good defense, terrible offense.

 

You have it just the opposite. If his name was John Smith, there wouldn't be the venom towards him by some there is here. He would be seen as what he is, a low power, more speed good defensive OF, with the potential to hit for a decent average. There have been hundreds of thsoe guys in MLB over the decades who've made nice careers, many of whom were starters at some time or another.

 

He's a good defender and a natural CF. He's not a great base stealer but he has well above average speed. The two biggest knocks on him are lack of power and a relatively low OBP. Yet the last time he was a full time player, he had respectable .360/.396 at Nashville, better than his numbers in lower minors. His major league numbers are insignificant because they are small sample and compiled over sporadic ABs.

 

He is absolutely the logical choice to fill in. Not only will he give you much better defense than having Gross in right and Hart in center, by having him get 100 or so consistent major league AB's the Brewers will have a much better read on his potential than they do now. As for his power lacking, that is the last thing that this team is lacking.

[endaround]

No it is you who has backwards. If his name was John Smith he would have had to hit his way to Milwaukee. A .360/.396 in the PCL is not promotion material for anything but SS or catcher. Instead Gwynn is given a roster spot based upon nothing while Hart is forced to spend time behind Kevin Mench because of Yost's whims.

[Roscoe Chill]

Yeah Briggs, he wouldn't have even made it to the big leagues if his name was John Smith. So, yes, there wouldn't be a lot of venom because he would be a Mel Stocker type...insignificant. That said, I hope he blossoms in to at least a trading chip.

[valpocrewsader]

Brian's post on page 1 sums up what my feelings have been this whole time. I really like the idea of everyone settling into a defensive groove with TGJ in center. Then when Cameron comes back, there's no major disruption to the defensive makeup while the offense gets a nice little boost. Every option for CF has pros and cons, and I don't think anyone's pros outweigh the benefit the team will get for creating a defensive-minded environment right from the start.

[davego]

As long as Gwynn goes down or away when Cameron comes back, I guess it is Ok for him to play. I'd rather see Gabe get those AB's, but if this is a way to push up Tony's value, then so be it. If Gynn goes out there and "wow's" everyone...that is all the better. Just my opinion, but for the long term, I'd take Gabe.

[DrWood]

the discussion has been gross vs. gwynn. how about hart in CF and dillon getting some starts in RF. I don't think it's a stretch to hope for a .800 OPS from Dillon.