Would you rather have the Brewers' rotation or the Cubs'?

[Ennder]

The Phillies rotation isn't any better than the Cubs or the Brewers. Hamels is as much of an injury risk as Sheets, he has been hurt 4 years in a row now. Myers isn't likely to be any better than Gallardo. Moyer is basically Suppan. Kendrick isn't any better than Villanueva. Eaton wouldn't make the Brewers team.

[jhart05]

Can I let you know my answer at the All-Star break?

[brewjihad]

Dempster

 

I think the switch from a reliever to starter is more difficult than starter to reliever. The closer mind-set is just so much different. I guess Braden Looper did a good job making the switch last year- he sacrificed velocity for location and tried to keep pitch counts down- but he's more of an exception.

 

I think they're going to get from Dempster what we got from Vargas last year, except with a slightly better ERA. He'll walk plenty and strike out plenty, and he'll probably have his share of short starts- and the increase in innings could cause him to hit the DL for a bit.

[brewerinvegas]

Instead of comparing 1 through 5, similar pitchers should be compared.

Aces: A healthy Sheets (oxymoron?) is better than Zambrano
Hot shot youngster: Gallardo much better than Hill
Veteran innings-eater: Suppan vs. Lilly? I'll take Suppan. I think Lilly pitched so far over his head last season that I'm amazed his head didn't explode from lack of atmospheric pressure.
I'll take Bush over Dempster/Leiber/Marquis
Parra/Villanueva? Youngsters are hard to predict. But I'd still rather have them over Dempster/Leiber/Marquis.

I think the press is really undervaluing the Brewers. Offensively we're much better. There's only two of their position players that I'd take over our starters (Ramirez and Soto). The bullpen revamp has gone extremely well (key being Gagne's ability to close games).

[cubfan1126]

What am I missing about Bush?

 

I've seen a lot of guys in this thread say they'll take Bush over Marquis/Lieber.

 

Forget Leiber for a moment and let's just look at Marquis. I know general sentiment in Chicago is he sucks get rid of him. But he threw 190+ innings with a not so great 4.65 ERA in 2007 which BTW happened to be 3.68 at the All Star break. A 12-9 record in which he had 3 games blown by the bullpen. So that would have been 15-9. And you guys want Bush's 180+ innings and his 5.12 ERA?

[TooLiveBrew]

A 12-9 record in which he had 3 games blown by the bullpen. So that would have been 15-9. And you guys want Bush's 180+ innings and his 5.12 ERA?

 

Using team stats like W-L & ERA will lead you to a lot of confusion.

[BrewCrewForever]

Wins look nice for a pitcher but really are an awful stat to use when debating how good or bad a pitcher is. You can throw wins out the window as far as I'm concerned. I look at ERA, WHIP and Innings.

[Ennder]

Well Bush had a 4.41 ERA in 2006 and Marquis had a 6.02. Relying on a single season of ERA is just about the worst way you could judge a pitcher.

 

Bush is a better K guy than Marquis, he is a better BB guy as well. Marquis induces a lot of ground balls which is his saving grace. If you look at a component ERA type stat like xERA Marquis has been 4.44, 5.21, 4.58 over the past 3 years, Bush has been a 4.23, 3.49, 4.18 which suggests Bush will be a better starter though I'm not convinced he'll ever get over his 1st inning problems or his problems with RISP so my guess is he lives in the 4.50 ERA range which is also what I'd expect out of Marquis.

 

Now if I were going to compare them 1 to 5 this is the way I think makes most sense.

 

#1 Sheets = Zambrano. Sheets is a better pitcher and Zambrano has a 3 year pattern of regression, Zambrano is also a significant injury risk because of his pitch counts over his career so if I had to give the edge to one it would be Sheets.

 

#2 Gallardo = Hill. Both high upside younger pitchers. Hill's age doesn't bother me much because lefties tend to mature late so it is expected. If Gallardo were starting the year healthy I'd give the edge to him but since we don't know how the knee will hold up I ended up calling them even.

 

#4 Suppan = Marquis. Both guys are mediocre innings eaters who will probably sit at a 4.50 ERA or so. If I had to give a slight edge it would be to Suppan but with the Cubs defense I expect Marquis to end up with a better ERA.

 

#5 Bush = Dempster/Lieber. These are all just guys, Bush has the most upside of the bunch at this point since all it would take for him to improve is pitching better with runners on.

 

So at this point we have what I consider four pretty even matchups with the Brewers having maybe a tiny edge in each one.

 

#3 Lilly vs Villanueva. This is the one that will decide things and the one I cannot predict but I think CV has our best chance of being the #3 guy that Lilly is for the Cubs. If CV pitches as well as people expect him to this is a wash, I tend to think that Lilly will win this one and offset the tiny advantages seen in the top 4.

 

#6 Parra > Marshal/Guzman. If this thing goes to a #6 starter the Brewers hold all the cards and in reality Parra is probably better than Lilly/CV though he cannot pitch a full season.

 

If we get to the #7 starters I think the Cubs are holding all the cards because of Capuano's injury.

 

I think the rotations are pretty close overall, if I got to take defense out of the equation I'd give the advantage to the Brewers but since I can't take it out I think things will be pretty even. The Cubs can withstand a major pitching injury better than we can because we released Vargas(assuming somebody picks him up) and Capuano went down for the year(I'm assuming, if he gets better with rest then it is even).

[cubfan1126]

As far as Marquis ERA of 6.02 in 2006 - If you check the records 2 times that season he pitched the day after the team gave up double digit runs. (I think 19 and 20) No he was not very good in those 2 starts either but "The Genius" had used up his bullpen the previous day and on both occassions he had to "take 1 for the team". He should have been yanked long before giving up the 12 he gave up each time. I guess that's why TooLiveBrew refers to ERA as a team stat.

 

As far as wins, I was just pointing out that 15 wins out of the 3/4 hole is a pretty good number when comparing. And wins is what voters start with when deciding who should get a Cy Young.

[Ennder]

Wins is not a useful for stat for judging how good a pitcher is though. There is no reason to expect 15 wins out of Marquis or to expect Marquis to get more wins than any other pitcher in those #4/#5 lists of pitchers.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess that's why TooLiveBrew refers to ERA as a team stat.

 

Not really - moreso that ERA is influenced by defense (or lack thereof). Determining whether or not a baserunner was "earned" or not can be a very inexact science, especially when there are suspect fielders behind a P.

[Big Reed]

I actually like the brewers' raotation better. I like Suppan a lot more than most people do. his stats won't back me up. but he's a very consistant pitcher. I noticed nobody included cappy. he's injured now, but he may return later this year. Cappy is on par with Marquis. I also noticed nobody mentioned Sheets may leave after this year. Without Sheets, our rotation does not stack up very well. With him, we can project pitchers against comparable pitchers. I would not want to compare Gallardo against Zambrano. I don't have much confidence in Dempster as a starter. He looks like he'll give you 4 1/2 t o 5 innings per start. And frankly, you need your starters to be able to give you 6 - 7 1/2 innings to have an effective rotation.

 

what the brewers really need is a second ace like Schilling and Randy johnson used to be or like glavin and maddux used to be. Maybe Gallardo will be that guy.

 

In 1982, the brewers had very good trio of Vuke, Caldwell and Sutton. They were not the best in the league, but they were very good and probably the best trio of their era.

[TooLiveBrew]

I noticed nobody included cappy. he's injured now, but he may return later this year. Cappy is on par with Marquis.

 

Ennder noted Capuano toward the end of #32.

[Gopher74]

I'd take Zambrano, Hill, Sheets, Gallardo and Lilly in that order.

 

I've never cared for either Suppan or Marquis outside of being #5 type guys.

You'd take Hill before you'd take Sheets and Gallardo? All I have to say to that is...."wow".

 

And as far as Suppan, I see a lot more people saying this year that they "just never thought much of him". I don't know how you couldn't have when he had a four season run in which he averaged about 14 wins a year with ERA's from 3.57 to 4.19. He was a pretty good pitcher.

 

[Gopher74]

I think the Cub starters are more reliable, but the Crew has more upside.

 

But this really isn't the correct question. That should be, would you rather have the Mets or Diamondbacks, or Phillies rotation? The Cubs and Crew aren't really serious contenders for the NL Pennant precisely because of their rotations.

Seriously, the Phillies?

What is there to like about the Phils past Hamels, who by the way hasn't exactly been the picture of health thus far. That rotation is ugly.

And I don't agree with your assessment of the Brewers rotation in the least, but I don't see that changing.

[Gopher74]

As far as wins, I was just pointing out that 15 wins out of the 3/4 hole is a pretty good number when comparing. And wins is what voters start with when deciding who should get a Cy Young.

Well if you want to use wins, Bush also would have had 15 or 16 had the BP not blown 3 or 4 of HIS games. So that doesn't really strengthen your argument either.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

And wins is what voters start with when deciding who should get a Cy Young.

What's more important: a)what sportswriters think or b)performance on the field?

[Gopher74]

And wins is what voters start with when deciding who should get a Cy Young.

What's more important: a)what sportswriters think or b)performance on the field?

We're talking about the sports writers who gave Raffy that Gold Glove when he played about 25 games in the field, right?

Definitely the sports writers. They know what they're talking about. I mean, they gave Colon the Cy when he clearly was the best pitcher, right?

 

[MessiahRp]

Without question I'd rather have our rotation. When Sheets is healthy nobody on the Cubs is even close (including Zambrano). Gallardo and Villanueva have bigger upside than any Cubs pitcher on their big league club and could be cornerstone pitchers down the road. Parra has tremendous upside and is comparable or better to what Rich Hill will be on his very best days and Bush is better than Marquis or Ted Lilly. And who the heck wants Jon Lieber at this stage of his career?

[Tbadder]

Gopher

Seriously, the Phillies?

What is there to like about the Phils past Hamels, who by the way hasn't exactly been the picture of health thus far. That rotation is ugly.

And I don't agree with your assessment of the Brewers rotation in the least, but I don't see that changing.

With the Brewers upside, yes indeed the Brewer rotation could be better. But if both were healthy would you rather have Hamels or Sheets? I'd take Hamels on pure stuff, but I can understand taking Sheets. Everyone but Suppan is an "if" in the Brewer rotation. I think Myers and Dempster are going to do well. They are veterans with quality arms. I think Lily will continue to do well because his difference was in switching leagues. Well, he's still in the lousier league and he still gets to face the pitcher 1 in 9. If they don't do well, then I'm wrong about the Phillies and Cubs. Nothing would please me more. But that still leaves us considerably short of the Mets and Diamondbacks. I know that this means nothing around here, and in many ways I agree with the assessment, but listening to Dibble and Kennedy last night on XM, both didn't even have the Brewers on their radar. Kennedy picked Cubs, Cards, Astros, Reds and never even mentioned the Brewers until a caller made the point about the Crew, and then Kennedy did say he liked the Brewers. But both mentioned that Cappy was gone, the Vargas cut was unexplainable, Sheets is always hurt. My point is not that they are right about their individual points, but the Brewers' "ifs' seems so much bigger to some than other teams. Hey I like Villy and Parra alot, but it still doesn't mean that they're proven. Bush and Suppan are solid, but I just don't think they're the kind of pitchers that get you in the playoffs, although once there Soup seems to turn it up a notch for whatever reason. And as a 1/2 combo Sheets and Gallardo don't really strike fear into the opposition I think. Now, having said all that, I admit I probably overstated the Phillies rotation and am more inclined to say you got the best of me there Gopher. Thanks.

[ILuvDaBush]

Sheets and Yo are quite the combination. For the year and a half prior to Yo's ascension to the majors, no pitcher had more strikeouts than the young Mexican hurler. And as for Sheets, while I know it was some four years ago, find me one NL pitcher who has put up a line like Ben's (most notably the amount of K's with his K/BB ratio). THe same is said of Bush, which is why....ahem...I kind of have a slight affinity for the throwback hurler.