Would you rather have the Brewers' rotation or the Cubs'?

[brewjihad]

We've seen a flurry of season previews by other blogs and sites over the past few weeks. The vast majority of them pick the Cubs, which is to be expected. Most, however, cite the fact that their rotation is one of the best in the NL and dismiss the Brewer rotation without giving it any thought.

So the question is, if you could swap our top 6 pitchers with their top 6 (with personal like/disliking aside), would you do it? I don't think I would.

Sheets --- Zambrano

Gallardo---Lilly

Suppan---Dempster

Villanueva---Hill

Bush---Marquis

Parra---Lieber

I think it's a heck of a lot closer than most national observers think. While their rotation is certainly more durable, ours has plenty more potential. Factor in the probable regression from Lilly- like Bronson Arroyo last year- and we might even come out on top.

If you could switch starting pitchers, would you? I wouldn't.

[razzzorsharp]

This year, I'd swap.

 

With future years in consideration I would not.

[DrWood]

hill is really their #3, they just put him 4th to split the lefties.

 

If I was going to pick 5 guys, they'd be sheets, zambrano, gallardo, parra, lilly. hill would be right there, too.

 

I'd probably pick Z over sheets, on durability so far.

I'd pick gallardo over lilly

suppan/dempster is a push

I'd pick hill over villanueva

bush over marquis

parra way over lieber.

[Gopher74]

I'll take ours. I think ours is better than theres right now, and I think ours has a lot of upside.

 

Sheets vs Zambrano

I'll take Sheets when healthy. Obviously that's been questionable the last couple years, but he's in a walk year, so I'll take him.

Gallardo vs Lilly

I'll take Gallardo over Lilly by a lot.

Suppan vs Hill

I'll call Hill their number 3, because he really is, he's just not pitching game 3(which sucks because I think we'd light him up). So, even though I'm not a big Hill guy, they get the edge there, though Suppan is a good second half guy.

Villanueva vs Dempster

I'll take Villy.

Parra vs Marquis/Lieber

Again, I'll take Parra, this time by a lot.

 

Overall, I give us the edge in 4 of the 5, but Sheets and Zambrano is even, and if Sheets goes down, that obviously changes it. I just like ours a lot more than I think most will. Good old fashion power pitchers surrounding Villy and Suppan, and Villy's pretty solid as well.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The Cubs rotation is the safe bet to be better because they have more of a track record, but all it takes is a healthy year of Sheets and a breakout season by Bush, Parra, or Villy and the Brewers rotation would be far and away better.

[brewjihad]

hill is really their #3, they just put him 4th to split the lefties.

 

Yeah, I just think Dempster and Suppan are a better comp. You could split it up any way you want.

[GAME05]

i'd take the Cubs, too, just for a single year.

 

i'd take a 90% version of Sheets (i.e. Zambrano) with the far stronger assurances of going the full year than the risk of Sheets.

 

but just as we have more long-term raw talent at the back end of the rotations, that also carries with it more risk of regression or at least not meeting expectations. having three guys who haven't logged a full year of ML service-time as a starter carries some risk with it.

 

it's a real strength of that cubs team that they have a really steady, reliable starting rotation. Dumpster might be the shakiest of the bunch moving from reliever, but he's had his experience, too.

[Ennder]

Hill is the Cubs #2, Lilly is the #3 if you are talking how good they are.

 

Do I get the Cubs defense if I pick the Brewers rotation? The real difference last year was the Cubs were a top 3 defensive team in the NL and the Brewers were a bottom 3. If you remove defense from the equation we were as good last year and will be better this year assuming good health.

[mothershipconnection]

If healthy, we win the first 2, 3-5 could go either way, with Hill likely a good bet to be better than Villy, and we dominate #6.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Do I get the Cubs defense if I pick the Brewers rotation?

I wish.

[elbobbo82]

I sure wouldn't take the Cubs rotation over ours, even this year. Marquis, Lilly and Dempster are all going to have ERAs near 5, because i can't see Lilly even coming close to last year's numbers, and Lieber isn't great either. On our side, yeah, Bush Soup and Villy could all have ERAs in the upper 4s too, but I think collectively they will be about .3 to .5 better than their counterparts, and of course Parra is much better than Lieber

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Marquis, Lilly and Dempster are all going to have ERAs near 5

I'll bet you a case of beer that Lilly's ERA is significantly lower than 5.

[Gopher74]

Marquis, Lilly and Dempster are all going to have ERAs near 5

I'll bet you a case of beer that Lilly's ERA is significantly lower than 5.

Define significantly? I could see him having a 4.65 or so ERA.

 

I do think that he's better than Hill however, so I don't agree with Ender's comments earlier, but that's not really the point here.

 

Fact is, I think Lilly will be at about 4.20, but it wouldn't shock me to see him struggle this year.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think it's a safe bet that Lilly's ERA is 4.5 or less this year.

[Bring Back the Stein]

The smart statheads here (and I'm not damning with faint praise) already have shown that the gut of the Cubs lineup had career years last year. The ceiling is low for them, and so is the basement. The upside for the Crew is high, but so is the basement. I like that we have this gamble, with this veteran middle relief behind it. Pound for pound, we pound them. No?

[TooLiveBrew]

If we're just talking pitching staff, I'd take the Brewers every time. As a group, they're better by a significant amount at the things over which a pitcher has the most control.

[Ennder]

I don't think Lilly will be close to a 5 ERA, he is a 4.25 ERA type guy who had a spout of great control last year. Hill has legit #2 potential and I could easily see him with a mid 3 ERA assuming his horrible spring isn't because of an injury. It would not surprise me one bit to see Zambrano with over a 4 ERA give his 3 year slide in every peripheral and Hill being their ace by the end of the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

I take the Brewers rotation if Sheets stays healthy all year. If he can, he can equal Zambrano's production.

 

I think Gallardo will be much better than Lilly. Lilly is basically a .500 career pitcher who benefitted last year because NL hitters weren't familiar with him. It was also the only year he exceeded 200 innings and he wore down late. I expect him to continue to slide.

 

I also not sold on Hill. There's a reason it took him until age 27 to establish himself. His big pitch is that big curveball and his command can go at any time. I don't think people realize how good Villanueva is. I expect him to have a better year than Hill. He's already got more poise and he's 4 years younger.

 

Bush, Suppan, Marquis, Lieber all fall into basically the same category.

 

The wild cards are Parra and Dempster. Parra has the stuff to be really good. I think Dempster might just be a guy.

[RightFieldCoder]

Look at how much we overrated (by that I mean we thought we could trade him) Vargas. I'd consider this a toss up, just like winning the division.

[Thurston Fluff]

If the Cubs pitchers all perform like they did last year then they have the better rotation on paper. I don't think they will since Lilly and Marquis both had above their norm tpye seasons. Marquis will regress IMO but Lilly always had potential that he never seemed to fulfill until last year. If he truely has fulfilled that potential and last year was not an aboration then they may have the edge.

[BrewCrewForever]

It's pretty close, of course we are all a little bias on this board toward our team. But I think it is very comparable and close between both teams 1-5. When ours is healthy I would take them over the Cubs five though. I am glad we don't have Dempster or Marquis though.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the Cubs pitchers all perform like they did last year then they have the better rotation on paper.

But the reason why they look better on paper is because of the Cubs' defense. For the factors a pitcher controls most, the Brewers were better in 2007, and barring some major regressions, will be in 2008 too.

[7rebmun]

I like the pick-5 idea . . .

 

I'd take Zambrano, Hill, Sheets, Gallardo and Lilly in that order.

 

I like Villy and Bush much better than I like Parra, Suppan or Marquis for this year. Parra will have growing pains and I've never cared for either Suppan or Marquis outside of being #5 type guys.

[Tbadder]

I think the Cub starters are more reliable, but the Crew has more upside.

 

But this really isn't the correct question. That should be, would you rather have the Mets or Diamondbacks, or Phillies rotation? The Cubs and Crew aren't really serious contenders for the NL Pennant precisely because of their rotations. Each has a knife-edge rotation where every thing has to fall just right just to win the division. The winner of this division is gonna have a hard time not getting swept like the Cubbies did last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really don't agree with that assesment of the Brewers' staff. This year's version will be a nice improvement over last year's, imo, and 2007 saw pretty good production from our SP.