Is Suppan really that much better than Vargas?

[lukevan]

I guess if Mark A wanted to overpay to land Soup that was his prerogative as long he isn't shy to loosen the purse strings just because of Suppan's contract. I agree though that Suppan's contract will look silly somewhat soon, especially if the FA market money fluctuates back down. I bet we could get rid of him at the deadline in 09 to some injury-plagued playoff contending team but would likely see little return and money going to said team.

[Gopher74]

Still, it's probably not going to end up being a good deal unless Suppan somehow morphs into a better pitcher than he's been his whole career.

Unless he pitches like he did his entire time with the Cards.

 

I don't know where this myth comes from that he was never a quality pitcher. He was. Hell, his ERA coming into tonight was 3.48. I'll take 4 good starts and 1 bad from him.

 

[adambr2]

Still, it's probably not going to end up being a good deal unless Suppan somehow morphs into a better pitcher than he's been his whole career.

Unless he pitches like he did his entire time with the Cards.

 

I don't know where this myth comes from that he was never a quality pitcher. He was. Hell, his ERA coming into tonight was 3.48. I'll take 4 good starts and 1 bad from him.

 

 

He's actually had 4 good starts and 2 really, really bad ones, which is fine. But you know that his ERA for the year coming into tonight isn't a very telling stat 30 days into the season, just as much as his new 5.19 ERA doesn't really tell much 31 days into the season.

 

Suppan pitched in front of one of the best defenses in baseball in his years in St. Louis, which obviously was beneficial to his ERA.

 

Suppan, over the course of his career, is a mediocre pitcher. Sure, he's been a quality starter at times. But 4.62 career ERA starters are a dime a dozen. Now, not all of them can give you 200 innings and will remain healthy year after year. That's positive for him. But it doesn't make him worth what his salary is the next few years. Those extra innings he'll eat up every year are still innings he's going to give up about 4.62 runs every 9 innings.

[Gopher74]

Revisiting this again after Suppan's rough outing tonigh

Which is a awful idea and not likely a good time to make anywhere near an objective analysis.

 

We signed him to about average market value when we signed him for 4 years, $42M. He was coming off two career years and was NLCS MVP in 2006, so his value may have even been a bit overinflated.

 

That's not even a little true. Of course, when you lose 19-5 this is a real convenient time to bring it up, but his recent success was better than Ted Lilly's, MUCH better than Jason Marquis,Gil Meche, Carlos Silva....how many other pitchers that got similar money? So while you can complain about the deal being an above average market deal, it simply wasn't.

Either of those is a salary for a low #1 or very high #2. $13M a year is less than what Harang makes in a year, it's in the ballpark of what Oswalt makes in a year.

 

And think, Gallardo only makes 350K. Of course, it's always a VERY bad idea to try and compare a pitcher signed as a FA to one that's still in his 6 years of service time.

I mean, would me pointing out Barry Zito prove any point whatsoever? That's the same logic as using what Prince makes right now and trying to argue seriously that Counsell doesn't deserve 5 times more. Obviously. But it's not even close to the same situation.
Again, its' a REALLY bad idea to even bring this up after an outing like this as I'm sure opinions will be much different than they were when the team had won each of his games and his ERA was 3.48.

They could put Vargas in the rotation for a fraction of the cost and probably lose very little over the course of the season]

 

Again, a convenient argument on a night like tonight, but Vargas is not a guy who goes 200 IP, and is a much worse pitcher than Jeff Suppan.

 

Manny Ramirez has been put on irrevocable waivers by the Red Sox in the past free for any taker in MVP-caliber years

 

As have dozens and dozens of other star players. So what? There's a difference between a 2 year commitment in the off-season to a pitcher at 2 years and 25 million, and a slugger during the season at 20 million for the next 4-5 years(which is what it was the last time he was actually put on waivers.

[Gopher74]

He's actually had 4 good starts and 2 really, really bad ones, which is fine. But you know that his ERA for the year coming into tonight isn't a very telling stat 30 days into the season, just as much as his new 5.19 ERA doesn't really tell much 31 days into the season.

And yet you chose tonight to come back with this argument? It's not even transparent, you come out and say "in light of this bad outing.....". A awful time to try and analyze a 4 year contract.

 

But again, why I'm trying to convey here, when you say that he's never been worthy of the deal he got? It's just not even a little bit true.

 

200 IP with ERA's in the very low 4's and one in the mid 3's for 4 years before we signed him.

 

I didn't like the deal and I've said that because I prefer power arms, but again, trying to argue that he's only worth it if he "morphs" into something he's never been?

 

Anyway, I'll let this die now. I'll bring it back up after he has another good couple starts....which reminds me...I should have brought it up a couple days ago.....

[adambr2]

Which is a awful idea and not likely a good time to make anywhere near an objective analysis.

Which is your opinion, and yet you've joined the discussion. I'm not dumb enough to think that Suppan is going to do this the rest of the year just because he had a bad night, I fully realize he'll have some good outings and bad ones yet this season, and probably end up around his career averages again.

That's not even a little true. Of course, when you lose 19-5 this is a real convenient time to bring it up, but his recent success was better than Ted Lilly's, MUCH better than Jason Marquis,Gil Meche, Carlos Silva....how many other pitchers that got similar money? So while you can complain about the deal being an above average market deal, it simply wasn't.

First of all, obviously I posted this long before we lost 19-5 tonight. Secondly, Lilly has, at worst, an even track record with Suppan over the course of his career, and almost all in the AL. Marquis didn't get "similar money." He got 3 years, $21 million. Meche definitely got a bad deal, Silva did too, even though he's been better than Suppan in the AL besides one horrible year. Meche and Silva getting bad deals doesn't mean a team is going to want Suppan for 2 years, $27M, especially when you consider the market differences this year.

And think, Gallardo only makes 350K. Of course, it's always a VERY bad idea to try and compare a pitcher signed as a FA to one that's still in his 6 years of service time.
I mean, would me pointing out Barry Zito prove any point whatsoever? That's the same logic as using what Prince makes right now and trying to argue seriously that Counsell doesn't deserve 5 times more. Obviously. But it's not even close to the same situation.
Again, its' a REALLY bad idea to even bring this up after an outing like this as I'm sure opinions will be much different than they were when the team had won each of his games and his ERA was 3.48.

Of course I didn't mention Gallardo and Zito, those are obviously terrible comparisons. I'm not going to sit here and use Gallardo's 350K salary as a reason that Suppan makes too much to be traded -- I have a better idea of how MLB contracts work than that. You're right, using Zito doesn't really prove any point either. At the time, Zito was seen as a Cy Young caliber pitcher, which no one obviously ever thinks of Suppan being in the same ballpark as that, and as a result, Zito got Cy Young money. And of course, as we know, the Giants got screwed.

Again, a convenient argument on a night like tonight, but Vargas is not a guy who goes 200 IP, and is a much worse pitcher than Jeff Suppan.

Vargas is just an example, although he could post a similar ERA to Suppan. But again, that's just an example. The Mets have other, better options than Claudio Vargas or Jeff Suppan.


As have dozens and dozens of other star players. So what? There's a difference between a 2 year commitment in the off-season to a pitcher at 2 years and 25 million, and a slugger during the season at 20 million for the next 4-5 years(which is what it was the last time he was actually put on waivers.

2 years, $27 million. Would you want us taking that on for Suppan next year if he were on another team? No, not unless they're eating some of the contract. Again, just because the Yankees or Mets can afford to take on a bad contract doesn't mean they are going to do it just because we want to get it off our books. It's just not smart business. Even the Rangers, who operate on a signficantly smaller payroll than the Yankees, ate a good portion of A-Rod's contract when he was traded to the Yankees. And no, I'm not comparing A-Rod to Suppan.

[Gopher74]

Of course I didn't mention Gallardo and Zito, those are obviously terrible comparisons. I'm not going to sit here and use Gallardo's 350K salary as a reason that Suppan makes too much to be traded -- I have a better idea of how MLB contracts work than that. You're right, using Zito doesn't really prove any point either. At the time, Zito was seen as a Cy Young caliber pitcher, which no one obviously ever thinks of Suppan being in the same ballpark as that, and as a result, Zito got Cy Young money. And of course, as we know, the Giants got screwed.

 

Yet you used Harang as an example. Using Gallardo would be just as ridiculous. If Harang was a FA, he'd get a deal much bigger than Suppan's, thus rendering him totally irrelevant to this discussion. Oswalt makes more. So again, I don't know what those two really have to do with anything. It's also known by just about everyone that Oswalt took below market value in order to stay in Houston. So using those two to say Suppan's deal was above "average" market value? C'mon.....

 

Vargas is just an example, although he could post a similar ERA to Suppan. But again, that's just an example. The Mets have other, better options than Claudio Vargas or Jeff Suppan.

 

He's a bad example...which is my point. He's not likely to post an ERA very close to Suppan's, and he's not going to do it for anywhere near the number of innings. Saying that the Mets could get a pitcher who's ERA isn't going to be as good, and will likely only go about 60 pct of the innings doesn't make much of a point.

 

 

Which is your opinion, and yet you've joined the discussion. I'm not dumb enough to think that Suppan is going to do this the rest of the year just because he had a bad night, I fully realize he'll have some good outings and bad ones yet this season, and probably end up around his career averages again.

 

Really? Seems to me I "joined" the discussion weeks ago and someone's bumping the thread after a bad start to re-ignite an argument. And if you're "not dumb enough" using your words, why bring this up tonight? Ya think just maybe the 19-5 game may be fresh in people's minds and as such that may skew the discussion a touch?

 

 

First of all, obviously I posted this long before we lost 19-5 tonight. Secondly, Lilly has, at worst, an even track record with Suppan over the course of his career, and almost all in the AL. Marquis didn't get "similar money." He got 3 years, $21 million. Meche definitely got a bad deal, Silva did too, even though he's been better than Suppan in the AL besides one horrible year.

 

And this is why it's absolutely silly to look at career numbers over say the last 3-4 years of a players career when you're talking about the contract he received.

From 03-06, the 4 seasons before we signed him, Suppan was unquestionably better than Lilly.

He was also better than Silva...huh....this is kinda what I'm talking about. You can pick and chose what numbers you would like to use, but I think that GM's just might use the last 4 years over what a player did in the AL say 7 years ago over the previous 4 years. When you've got to go way out of your way to make a comparison, it's likely not one the GM's made.

Meche and Silva getting bad deals doesn't mean a team is going to want Suppan

 

No, but it means when you make these declarations about how his deal was above the market value, and yet all the other pitchers in his range got similar or bigger deals, that you're wrong....since that's what I brought those pitchers up for. To point out how you're simply incorrect in saying he got an above average market deal.

 

2 years, $27 million. Would you want us taking that on for Suppan next year if he were on another team?

Because I wouldn't want the Brewers to take on that deal, most certainly does not mean that no other team will take him for the 2 years and 25 million he's owed the next two years.

[adambr2]

He's actually had 4 good starts and 2 really, really bad ones, which is fine. But you know that his ERA for the year coming into tonight isn't a very telling stat 30 days into the season, just as much as his new 5.19 ERA doesn't really tell much 31 days into the season.

And yet you chose tonight to come back with this argument? It's not even transparent, you come out and say "in light of this bad outing.....". A awful time to try and analyze a 4 year contract.

 

But again, why I'm trying to convey here, when you say that he's never been worthy of the deal he got? It's just not even a little bit true.

 

200 IP with ERA's in the very low 4's and one in the mid 3's for 4 years before we signed him.

 

I didn't like the deal and I've said that because I prefer power arms, but again, trying to argue that he's only worth it if he "morphs" into something he's never been?

 

Anyway, I'll let this die now. I'll bring it back up after he has another good couple starts....which reminds me...I should have brought it up a couple days ago.....

I'm not really sure what you've seen in my posting history that makes you think that I can't objectively analyze whether or not Suppan is tradeable after this season just because he had a bad outing tonight. That really has nothing to do with any of this discussion, it just got me thinking of it. You know I maintained earlier this season that we would have a tough time trading Suppan after '08.

 

I'm done arguing about whether or not Suppan is worthy of the deal he got. It's almost completely a subjective argument. We gave it to him, he signed it, it's done. The real point is, "is his contract tradeable, or are we stuck with his remaining $25M committment?"

Yes, he did have his 4 best years of his career right before he signed his contract. And again, 3 of those years, he was playing in front of a defense that probably took off .25 to .30 from his ERA over the average defense. Still were decent years, but at age 34 next season, would you expect that he'd look more like he looked like last year and will look like this year, or what he looked like back then?

 

As far as bringing this up after a couple good starts, feel free. If he can maintain it over the course of the season, my opinion will obviously change. Until then, I still think you are overrating Suppan if you think that $27M is something we can just dump on a large market team that needs to plug in another starter.

[adambr2]

Really? Seems to me I "joined" the discussion weeks ago and someone's bumping the thread after a bad start to re-ignite an argument. And if you're "not dumb enough" using your words, why bring this up tonight? Ya think just maybe the 19-5 game may be fresh in people's minds and as such that may skew the discussion a touch?

I'm not sure what you're saying here, unless you're suggesting that I was baiting you. I don't see anything in my original post tonight that was inviting anything more than friendly discussion. I know you don't like the timing, but this is going to come up over the course of the season because this is something that could potentially have a major affect on our offseason and outlook for '09 and further.

And this is why it's absolutely silly to look at career numbers over say the last 3-4 years of a players career when you're talking about the contract he received.
From 03-06, the 4 seasons before we signed him, Suppan was unquestionably better than Lilly.
He was also better than Silva...huh....this is kinda what I'm talking about. You can pick and chose what numbers you would like to use, but I think that GM's just might use the last 4 years over what a player did in the AL say 7 years ago over the previous 4 years. When you've got to go way out of your way to make a comparison, it's likely not one the GM's made.

Lilly was almost even with Suppan every year, while pitching in the AL. The lone exception is 2005. Suppan wasn't significantly better than Lilly from '03 to '06 besides 2005.

Because I wouldn't want the Brewers to take on that deal, most certainly does not mean that no other team will take him for the 2 years and 25 million he's owed the next two years.

I don't know why you keep saying $25M. He has a $2M buyout for his 2011 team option. Anyone trading for him after this year and taking on his entire contract has to commit $27M minimum.

[Gopher74]

 

 

 

 

 

Lilly was almost even with Suppan every year, while pitching in the AL. The lone exception is 2005. Suppan wasn't significantly better than Lilly from '03 to '06 besides 2005.

 

Ok, I'm not going to argue over significantly better or not, but he was better. The point is, you argued that Lilly had been better, and he hadn't. Now you're arguing to what degree Suppan was better in the previous 4 years? The very simple fact of the matter is that Suppan got a very average deal, especially sine he was coming off four years of 4.12, 4.16, 4.19, and 3.58 ERA's.

 

But again, who cares how much better he was? Lets say they were exactly even. Wouldn't that lend more weight to my argument that his deal was a average market value deal? Wouldn't the fact that he got the same money as another pitcher who at the very least was even with him the last 4 years mean that he didn't get this ridiculous deal that you keep suggesting he got? Again, Washburn, Silva, Meche, Lilly, Marquis(21/3 for a guy that was coming off a ERA over 6 which was my point initially). Jason Schmidt got over 15 per. Zito 126 over 7. You simply can't argue that Suppan's deal is over market value.

 

I don't know why you keep saying $25M.

 

Because that's what he's owed the next two years.

or are we stuck with his remaining $25M committment

 

Wait, so you don't know why I keep saying 25 million(despite the very basic fact that he's owed 25 over the next two seasons) and you use the exact same number that you're admonishing me for using?

He has a $2M buyout for his 2011 team option.

 

 

And do we know if the team he'll be on then has picked it up? In any event, it's pretty standard for the team that's trading him away to pick that up. So we can take the 2 million that you seem to think is going to make a world of difference.

And again, 3 of those years, he was playing in front of a defense that probably took off .25 to .30 from his ERA over the average defense.

 

Right, so when Suppan does something good, it's his great defense.

But don't hesitate to throw him under the bus for his 4.62 ERA last year.

So just using your logic, if his defense took .25 to .30 off from an average defense, then he must have "really" had a 4.10 or so ERA last year because the Brewers defense was terrible, right? Gotta work both ways....

I still think you are overrating Suppan

If I seriously haven't gotten the point across that it's not what I'm "rating" him at this point, but what I believe he is "rated" based on other starting pitchers, then I give up. I don't think I could make it any clearly that the entire basis of my argument has been that he's a average pitcher who gives you 200 IP a year, and that is worth what he's going to make.

 

 

You seem to think that because it's 2 years that's a bad thing. You point out what a pitcher would get on the FA market right now. Here's how it works, the shorter the deal, the higher annual salary. If the Mets would have signed Johan to a 1 year deal, it'd likely have been for a lot more. That's going to be a benefit to us in trading him, not a deterrent.

 

I don't know why it's so hard for you to imagine that pitchers like Carlos Silva and Gil Meche will get 10-11 a year, or Washburn, but that Suppan won't get 12.5 for half the time(or wouldn't right now).

[Gopher74]

I bet we could get rid of him at the deadline in 09 to some injury-plagued playoff contending team but would likely see little return and money going to said team.

I think if we deal him to and pay money, we're getting something back. IF it's just a dump, we don't get anything back.

 

He's not exactly a risk, he's a known commodity. You think the Phillies would take his contract right now and be happy to have it?

[Jopal78]

I won't defend Suppan as being anything but mediocre, but look at the lack of even mediocre pitching in the major leagues and you will see that Suppan has substantial worth. The Cardinals rotation had such luminaries as Kip Wells, Mike Maroth, and Brad Thompson start 25% of their games, and Suppan outpitched them all. The Astros used Woody Williams, Matt Albers, and Jason Jennings for 40% of their starts. The Pirates started Tony Armas, Matt Morris, J. Van Benschoten, and Shane Youman for 27% of their games. I won't even bring up the other division in baseball

 

Suppan may be a bit of a disappointment based on what he did with the Cards, but I would still rather watch him get lit up once in awhile, than the alternative of watching some other joker go out every 5th day and hand the Brewers and automatic loss.

[Ennder]

Lilly was also a significant injury risk, he had not been healthy a full season in his entire career. That most certainly lowered his price tag.

[rluzinski]

Average is good enough for 7 million dollars? What has this world come to? I wish I could be average for 7 million dollars.

 

If you are average among the .001% of the population that has the skill to even be in the majors, you are doing pretty good for yourself. And if that skill makes a lot of money for other people, you are in REALLY good shape. Suppan is an average major league starting pitcher. He is no where close to an average baseball player.

[Bucky Rules]

In the pool of post-arby (or free agent eligible) pitchers, my guess is he very well could be better than average. I still hope that his contract isn't the reason that we don't re-sign Sheets, though. That was my biggest (and really only) fear when we signed Suppan.