Is Suppan really that much better than Vargas?

[Tbadder]

Soup is a perfect #5 pitcher. Eats innings, great teammate, throws the ocassional beauty, takes his turn every time.

 

Is he worth 42 mil? No one is. But that's the glory of the marketplace that we've been shedding our blood for, for the last 240 years.

 

Is he gonna be traded? How is someone gonna pick up that contract when he's like 34/35? I think the Crew are gonna eat this big time, and deservedly so.

[Kurt]

posted this before but I'll repeat it. If we had another starter or two like Suppan, we would have made the playoffs last year

 

Soup pitched just about half of his innings last year against divisional opponents and in those games he was 8-3 with a 3.75 ERA. Including a 2.83 ERA against the Cubs. (Vargas, Bush and Villanueva combined for 5.85 ERA against them last year) Lifetime Soup has a 3.15 ERA in 100 innings pitched against the Cubs. I believe a playoff run starts will divisional wins. This is a workhorse veteran I am very happy to have on my team.

[Gopher74]

Is he gonna be traded? How is someone gonna pick up that contract when he's like 34/35? I think the Crew are gonna eat this big time, and deservedly so.

Of course you do. By the way, he just turned 33, and he's got virtually no injury concerns, and isn't the type that's going to regress significantly with age, much less the next couple years.

 

But why would they "deserve it"?

 

Absolute worst case scenario, they've got to pay 5 million of his 25 remaining bringing it to a very reasonable 10 over 2 years. I doubt they need to do that though. Teams will have interest in a proven big game pitcher who's an innings eater.

[endaround]

The Brewers can no longer trade Suppan unless the unlikely happens and they resign Sheets. Capuano's injury pretty much killed that.

[Fatter than Joey]

Because he came off a career year in St. Louis and dominated the Brewers every time he faced them for years. And what do we get in return? A mediocre year for big time money.

 

In all fairness -- Suppan played in front of a MUCH better defense in St. Louis than he did in Milw. last year.

[endaround]

Because he came off a career year in St. Louis and dominated the Brewers every time he faced them for years. And what do we get in return? A mediocre year for big time money.

 

In all fairness -- Suppan played in front of a MUCH better defense in St. Louis than he did in Milw. last year.

Suppan was better last year than he was any year in St Louis.

FIP:

2004 4.92

2005 4.71

2006 4.76

2007 4.38

[rluzinski]

As the poster said, Bush was far more likely to have that big blowup than Suppan was.

 

Say that like it is a bad thing. Comparing two pitchers with identical 4.5 ERAs, I'll take the ERA with a couple big blowups over giving up 3 runs over 6 IP every outing. The less consistent pitcher will win more games. Giving up that 6th or 7th run has little consequence since you probably aren't going to win a game in which your starting pitcher gives up 5 runs anyway.

 

Obviously, Bush and Suppan didn't have the same ERA and Suppan actually had a pretty decent year (as End pointed out). I just think there's some serious misconceptions over how you want your starting pitcher to distribute his runs given up over a season. Heck, who wouldn't want their starting pitcher to give up ALL his runs in his first start, while throwing shutouts for the rest of the year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

Heck, who wouldn't want their starting pitcher to give up ALL his runs in his first start, while throwing shutouts for the rest of the year.

 

Maybe that was what Joe Winklesas was doing?

[Tbadder]

First off, I thought Soup's contract was bigtime back loaded making him harder to trade after this year because of its size.

 

Secondly, you reap what you sew, only more so if you're a small market team. No one can complain that the Crew can't sign a younger, bettter player because they locked up a solid and unspectacular pitcher who is a good 4/5 but a lousy 1/2 in the rotation.

 

Third--you blew it. I'm not taking responsibilty for this one, "he's got virtually no injury worries"? Dang it Gopher don't say that kind of thing out loud. This is the Milwaukee Brewers. Now we gotta find a replacement starter for him as well as Sheets. Insert smiley drunken face dude.

[Fatter than Joey]

Secondly, you reap what you sew,

 

It's "sow" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

First off, I thought Soup's contract was bigtime back loaded making him harder to trade after this year because of its size.

 

This was always my impression.

[endaround]

Suppan gets $12.5 million the next two years plus $2 million to buyout his 2011 option. So $27 million for Suppan over 2009 and 2010. And a limited no trade clause. Like I said the Brewers likely can't trade him now because of the lack of depth.

[apirk]

Wow how many negative Suppan post have their been in this thread with absolutely no facts backing them at all.

 

Personally I hope we don't trade Suppan because that means we are in a playoff race and I would want him pitching for the Brewers in the playoffs over pretty much all of the Brewers SP except a healthy Sheets.

If the Brewers want to trade him there will be a market for him. A proven veteran SP who was successful in the playoffs, I am pretty sure there will always be a market for a player like that despite his contract.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

First of all, he doesn't make 42 million a season.

Thanks for pointing that out. I had no idea.

 

I just don't think it's going to be that hard to deal him.

Very wishful thinking.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Soup is a perfect #5 pitcher. Eats innings, great teammate, throws the ocassional beauty, takes his turn every time.

I couldn't agree with you any more. He's a nice pitcher. Just not a guy you want as your #2 starter.

[endaround]

Wow how many negative Suppan post have their been in this thread with absolutely no facts backing them at all.

 

Personally I hope we don't trade Suppan because that means we are in a playoff race and I would want him pitching for the Brewers in the playoffs over pretty much all of the Brewers SP except a healthy Sheets.

If the Brewers want to trade him there will be a market for him. A proven veteran SP who was successful in the playoffs, I am pretty sure there will always be a market for a player like that despite his contract.

Suppan is not going to be traded during this season, in fact he can't be.

 

[Kurt]

I just cringe to think that two years before Suppan, we had Victor Santos on our team.

 

God bless you Jeff Suppan.

[Gopher74]

Thanks for pointing that out. I had no idea.

No problem. I guess I thought with all the other factually incorrect statement you made regarding Suppan, I needed to point that out. By the way, when you say "the only thing he does is throw 200 innings a year and keep you in games", that's a bit comical. The "only" thing he's does? Did you think we were getting Johan Santana when we got him? Look, to call him "crap" for us last season is ridiculous. He was average for us while he made 7 million dollars. It was one season, a season in which he was probably our more reliable starter the second half of the season behind Gallardo. A 4.12 ERA the second half of the year, even with a .339 BABIP is not "crap".

 

Very wishful thinking.

 

2 years 25 million for "just throwing 200 innings and keeping you in the game"? Yea, I guess that a team like the Mets would NEVER want a pitcher like that.

[Gopher74]

The Brewers can no longer trade Suppan unless the unlikely happens and they resign Sheets. Capuano's injury pretty much killed that.

I think the argument is that will allow us to re-sign Sheets. I think Sheets would rather stay here having a vested interest in the city. The question obviously is if we'll pay him. We made a lot of money last year, have a ton coming off the books this year, and Mark A has said time and time again that they'd go out and spend 15 million on an ace if there was one out there to spend it on. I have to think that we'd be willing to spend that extra 4 million dollars to retain him.

 

And with CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, John Lackey, John Smotlz, Brad Penny, Oliver Perez and Mark Mulder all up for Free Agency this summer, I could definitely see Sheets re-signing with us. I don't think that it's a sure thing by any means, but I think this is just about the best year for him to be a Free Agent as far as we're concerned.

 

Of that list, I'd have to place him at best 4th behind Burnett, Lackey and obviously CC, and possibly behind Smotlz and Penny. Smotlz for the short term. Hell, maybe we could bring him in for a year.

 

Speaking of which, I really like the reliever market for next season with Lyon and Cruz from the D-backs on it. Maybe that's why Melvin only wanted the one year 10 million rather than the 2 year 16 million dollar deal for Gange in addition to all the other 1 year deals he signed relievers to. Perhaps he saw a potential long term fix coming up next off-season.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Look, to call him "crap" for us last season is ridiculous. He was average for us while he made 7 million dollars.

Average is good enough for 7 million dollars? What has this world come to? I wish I could be average for 7 million dollars. How about that other 35 milliion dollars he's going to make while aging even further with the Brewers in the next 3 seasons?

[Gopher74]

TuesdaysWithRillo wrote:Average is good enough for 7 million dollars? What has this world come to? I wish I could be average for 7 million dollars. How about that other 35 milliion dollars he's going to make while aging even further with the Brewers in the next 3 seasons?

Sadly...yea, average is good enough for 7 million dollars. Jason Marquis coming of a 6+ ERA season got 7 million dollars, so I'd say that we absolutely got 7 million out of Suppan.

 

And how about that other 35? I think it's entirely possible that he not only bounces back this year, but that we don't have to pay him the last couple years. This contract was structured in a way that I believe Melvin always intended to, or at least in the back of his mind held the possibility open to dealing him after the second season. His full no trade turns into a limited no trade to 8 teams, and his salary jumps from years 1 and 2.

 

And while everyone seems so convinced that you're not going to be able to move him, I think that 2 years that'll be left on his deal will honestly won't be that big of a deal to a team like the Mets. I know I keep bringing up the Mets, but I see them as the perfect fit. They were one of the teams that he was initially rumored to go to, and I believe they're going to have some rotation issues behind Santana next year. But in any event, even if it's not the Mets, I believe there will be a handful of teams that will gladly take him off our hands. You're not going to get Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, but you'll get rid of his contract to possibly re-sign Sheets.

 

[adambr2]

Revisiting this again after Suppan's rough outing tonight, let's take a look objectively at Suppan's contract.

He's got 2 years, $25M remaining on it at minimum. He has a $12.75M option for 2011, with a $2M buyout.

 

So to any team that wants to trade for Suppan and take his contract, they get their choice between a 2 year, $27M contract and a 3 year, $37.75M contract. Either of those is a salary for a low #1 or very high #2. $13M a year is less than what Harang makes in a year, it's in the ballpark of what Oswalt makes in a year. If Suppan was on the FA market right now at this very moment, and seeking a 2 year deal, do you really think he would be able to land a $27M dollar contract? I doubt it. So why would anyone not only do that, but give something in trade to get him?

 

We signed him to about average market value when we signed him for 4 years, $42M. He was coming off two career years and was NLCS MVP in 2006, so his value may have even been a bit overinflated.

 

I think Soup would need to post an ERA in the low 4.00's for anyone to even want to consider it without eating some of his salary. If he is around his career 4.60 ERA? I just don't see it. He's not at the age where he's going to be projected to improve. Yeah, it's nice that he can be counted on to stay healthy and give you 200 innings, but how much is that really worth?

 

Even if they need pitching, I can't imagine a team like the Mets would be foolish just because they have the finances to do so. There are plenty of good FA pitchers on the market this offseason if they want to wisely invest their money. They could put Vargas in the rotation for a fraction of the cost and probably lose very little over the course of the season. I realize that money is less of an issue for a team like the Mets than it is for a team like the Brewers, but that doesn't mean they're going to throw it around and overpay just because they can. There are plenty of other options for the few teams that might consider taking him off our hands to fill their starting rotation next year, by either free agency or better trades. They aren't reliant on us calling them about Jeff Suppan.

 

Manny Ramirez has been put on irrevocable waivers by the Red Sox in the past free for any taker in MVP-caliber years, and no one has bitten. Different situations, different contracts, but I'm not sure we wouldn't get the same result if Suppan had a year like last year and we went ahead and did that. So I can't see how we'll get anything in return, unless we want to send $7M - $9M in the trade to help cover the remainder of his contract.

[rluzinski]

We signed him to about average market value when we signed him for 4 years, $42M.

 

MVP! MVP! MVP!

 

It was a silly signing based on silly reasoning and it's going to look really, really stupid in 2010.

[adambr2]

I don't blame Melvin too much for the Suppan signing -- from what I understand, he was pretty heavily influenced by Mark A. into getting this deal done, and pretty much had his hand forced into this one.

 

Still, it's probably not going to end up being a good deal unless Suppan somehow morphs into a better pitcher than he's been his whole career.

 

I'm not the hugest Dave Bush fan, but we could probably have him in the rotation all of 2009 in Suppan's spot and it's really not going to make any difference in the W/L column.

 

1) Sheets

2) Gallardo

3) Parra

4) Bush

5) Villanueva

 

would be more than fine, with still plenty of depth likely available. (Capuano, Weaver, Narveson, Jackson)

[rluzinski]

I don't blame Melvin too much for the Suppan signing -- from what I understand, he was pretty heavily influenced by Mark A. into getting this deal done, and pretty much had his hand forced into this one.

 

I got that impression as well.

[Ennder]

Given the fact we have 0 sure thing can make every start on the season type pitchers I think the signing is fine. Capuano had a history of arm problems, Sheets was going through problems. Bush was a marginal guy. Davis was regressing big time. We had a bunch of young guys with uncertainty involved with them. I fully understand why they overpayed for a durable mediocre type.