Is Suppan really that much better than Vargas?

[Pudster13]

Here's an interesting question. Last offseason, we inked free agent Jeff Suppan to a 4 year- $42 million contract.

 

Did the Brewers make a mistake by signing a mediocre pitcher for that long? Will his contact prevent us from re-signing Sheets or locking up one of our youngsters?

 

Career numbers:

 

Age:

Suppan- 33

Vargas- 28

 

ERA

Suppan 4.61

Vargas 4.95

 

WHIP

Suppan 1.43

Vargas 1.46

 

2008 Rotation with Soup

Sheets

Suppan

Gallardo

Bush

Villanueva

 

2008 Rotation without Soup

Sheets

Gallardo

Bush

Villanueva

Parra

(Vargas as a 6th starter)

 

Thoughts?

[endaround]

Yes Suppan is better than Vargas. However he is not better than Dave Bush who people want to take out of the rotation.

[apirk]

I don't know how good suppan is but he is one thing that most of the Brewers Pitchers are not and that is reliable. You know what you'll get out of him. Sure he isn't going to have any shutouts but he won't pitch the Brewers out of many wins either.

[BrewCrewForever]

Suppan is solid. He isn't flashy and great, but like others have said you know what you will get out of him. I also like Dave Bush a lot, just wish he was more consistent. He has great "stuff" but one day will pitch a shutout and the next start give up 5 or 6 in an inning.

[endaround]

QS last season:

 

Suppan 15 44%QS

 

Bush 15 48%QS

 

Sheets 14 58%QS

 

Vargas 9 39% QS

 

Capuano 6 24%QS

 

"Inconsistent" Dave Bush was more consistent than the dependable Suppan

[GAME05]

i remember this was a good discussion on here when we first signed Suppan.

 

but even if you call Suppan and Bush equal pitching-wise, Suppan adds so much value in other areas like leadership and actual playoff experience. if we're playing the Cubs to end the season with the division on the line, i'm still confident Suppan could step up and pitch a great game.

[endaround]

Yep if it wasn't for Suppan's leadership the Brewers might have blown a huge division lead last year to the Cubs or something

[Hate those Rodents]

Suppan is reliable only in the fact that you can rely on him for no more than six innings tops and probably at least five runs scored for the other team before he's done.

 

Money talks, or Suppan would not be in the rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yep if it wasn't for Suppan's leadership the Brewers might have blown a huge division lead last year to the Cubs or something

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[bork]

Dependability has to count for something. Suppan has thrown 30+ games at close to 200 innings for 9 straight years. Bush has done that 4 years in a row. They'll keep you in the majority of games and won't kill your bullpen.

 

Vargas has never pitched more than 168 innings (2006).

[rluzinski]

Why spend $42 mil for playoff experience when you already have Counsell for that at a fraction of the cost?

 

Yes, Suppan is better than Vargas but he is probably a league average pitcher. I hated the signing then and I hate the signing now.

[logan82]

rluzinski wrote:

Yes, Suppan is better than Vargas but he is probably a league average pitcher. I hated the signing then and I hate the signing now.

I didn't like the signing either.

 

Like endaround said Bush was more consistent that Suppan was. Suppan was the king of 5 inning starts last year. 12 of his starts didn't get to the 6th inning.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKN8HdBGjC9KoeBvx_jbJEQ

[brewjihad]

Suppan's average innings per start was substantially better than Vargas's last year. So he taxes the bullpen less, and didn't miss any starts due to injury. Also:

 

Vargas 2007

ERA: 5.09

ERA+: 88

 

Suppan 2007

ERA: 4.67

ERA+: 97

 

It'd be tough for me to understand an arguement that Vargas is anywhere near Suppan in value.

[JohnBriggs12]

There are many, many guys capable of putting up numbers as good as Suppan in any given year. But very few who do it with the long term consistency of Suppan. He's won in double figures 9 times in the past 10 seasons. The other year he won 9.

 

Plus, over the last 4 seasons, he is 21-11 in August and September with an ERA about a run less than his total over that time.

 

In short, it's consistency and proven track record in pennant races that sets him apart.

 

Is that worth $42 million over 4 years? Probably not. But it was to the Brewers who lacked those qualities in their other starters. It might prove to be a bad move, but it may still work out.

 

Let's remember, spring numbers are meaningless for guys assured of spots like Suppan.

[Zycho32]

You could also argue that Suppan acts more or less as a 'Rotation Buffer', ensuring the young propsects this club grooms to be future Starters don't get thrown into the majors well before they are ready. You can also argue that the 'dependability' factor works in this role too, as someone like Vargas or maybe even Bush would have a very hard time playing the 'Buffer' role during one of their more atrocious outings.

 

Besides, the tune of this thread might very well change if more starters go down over the season like Capuano.

[TooLiveBrew]

Guys like Suppan and Livan Hernandez provide the value of gobbling up innings. One reason why, in retrospect, I wish we still had DD.

 

 

I didn't like the signing either.

 

Well he'll probably be traded after 2008, so I don't think you need to worry much longer.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Just looking at the rate stats will lead you to overrate Vargas...for a starting pitcher, innings are an extremely important number. Suppan or Bush (or Doug Davis) is an excellent bet to put up something like 200 innings with an ERA around league average. Vargas is a little worse as far as the rate stats, so he'd be a little less valuable for an equal number of innings. But there's little reason to believe that he's a good bet for 200 innings...he's only topped 135 once...and history shows those missing innings will end up going to somebody worse...often a lot worse.

 

The reason that league average inning eaters get multiyear deals for big bucks is not their pedestrian ERA...it's the innings they pitch that keep a truly awful pitcher off the mound...every inning Suppan (or whoever) can't take is a good bet to go to another Winkelsas type, or a prospect who isn't quite ready for prime time, and may never be.

 

Speaking of which, guess who's just been cut loose by Kansas City?

 

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/547373.html

[Gopher74]

"Inconsistent" Dave Bush was more consistent than the dependable Suppan

That's a pretty poor way of judging consistency.

 

As the poster said, Bush was far more likely to have that big blowup than Suppan was. Suppan gave up 9 to Minnesota, and then twice other times he gave up 5 runs, but that was it. 3 times last year he gave up more than 4 runs.

I like Dave Bush a great deal, I just don't see how you can possibly say that Dave Bush is better, or has performed better unless you just chalk up luck to the large discrepancy in their numbers the over the last 4-5 years(or all of Bush's career).

 

[Gopher74]

Suppan is reliable only in the fact that you can rely on him for no more than six innings tops and probably at least five runs scored for the other team before he's done.

 

Money talks, or Suppan would not be in the rotation.

Yes, and again, three times last year Suppan gave up more than 4 ER's, so I don't know how you can possibly "count" on him to give up 5 ER's.

 

And who exactly would take Suppan's spot in the rotation right now? Naverson? Maybe Jackson? I don't get it.

 

[Gopher74]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

I didn't like the signing either.

 

Well he'll probably be traded after 2008, so I don't think you need to worry much longer.

Agreed. I didn't like the signing, and I don't like him at 42 over 4, but I'm glad that we structured it like we did, and really believe the Mets will be a team that's going to come calling about Suppan next year. A team that wants a reliable guy after losing Pedro and possibly Perez this off-season, and having that solid ace at the top of their rotation. A team in a pitchers park, with money, and a great offensive lineup that can get Suppan 15-17 wins with an ERA around 4.25-4.50.

 

That said, people use the fact that he is overpaid right now, and take that a step too far by saying he shouldn't be in the rotation. He's a solid pitcher who's very good in the second half of the year. You've got Sheets who's an ace, Gallardo who can be your number 2 this year, and Villy and Parra who can both be much better than the average 4 and 5, and all you really want out of that other spot is a reliable guy who's going to keep you in the game more often than not. That's what Suppan does. Not sure why there is so animosity with regard to Suppan.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Not sure why there is so animosity with regard to Suppan.

Because he came off a career year in St. Louis and dominated the Brewers every time he faced them for years. And what do we get in return? A mediocre year for big time money.

[Gopher74]

Not sure why there is so animosity with regard to Suppan.

Because he came off a career year in St. Louis and dominated the Brewers every time he faced them for years. And what do we get in return? A mediocre year for big time money.

He wasn't coming off a career year. He was better in 04 and 05 and you could argue that he was better in 03 as well. And honestly, we haven't paid "big money" for him just yet either. We're paying him about 15 over the first two years when his no-trade is in place, and then when he has just a limited no-trade, he gets his bump in pay.

 

All the same, this doesn't mean that he's really just Claudio Vargas with a different number.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't think Suppan is Claudio Vargas. Suppan is flat out better. My point was that he was pitching pretty damn well for St. Louis and he pitched for crap with us. The only value he provided was that he ate up 200 innings and kept us in ball games. I expect more out of a 42 million dollar pitcher. 42 million is big time money for a small market team. Why does everyone think that we're gonna be able to trade this guy? Who's going to take on that kind of salary for mediocre pitching?

[logan82]

There are many, many guys capable of putting up numbers as good as Suppan in any given year. But very few who do it with the long term consistency of Suppan. He's won in double figures 9 times in the past 10 seasons. The other year he won 9.

Let's remember, spring numbers are meaningless for guys assured of spots like Suppan.

I guess you would want Vargas over Suppan then since he had a better win% last year than Suppan. I don't think anybody refered to spring training numbers.

[Gopher74]

I expect more out of a 42 million dollar pitcher. 42 million is big time money for a small market team. Why does everyone think that we're gonna be able to trade this guy? Who's going to take on that kind of salary for mediocre pitching?

First of all, he doesn't make 42 million a season. If you're going to use his salary, then use his yearly salary. He made I believe about 7 million last year. He definitely earned that.

 

As for why we're going to be able to trade him? Because there will always be a market for pitchers who you know will give you 200 innings, will keep you in the game, and who is reliable. As I've said, I expect the Mets to be the team asking about him with Pedro and Perez being FA's this year. He'd fit in perfectly behind Santana in Shea Stadium. And it's only a 2 year commitment. But if not them, the Phillies who always need pitching, and want GB pitchers in that park, the M's, or about 5-6 other teams I could see going after him. How about the Dodgers with Lowe and Penny being FA's? I just don't think it's going to be that hard to deal him. We're probably not going to get much back, but I think we'll still be able to move him.