Starting Rotation Announced

[JohnBriggs12]

Bush and Suppan are ugly as 3 and 2. It's kinda like yelling uncle that first series.

Think of the chances that the first series will be at least 1/3 rescheduled. That could help.

 

Back in the day they use to postpone games due to cold, but you don't see that anymore. They don't want to schedule doubleheaders when they've sold 35,000 tickets. Unless there is snow on the ground or steady rain, they'll play. That snowstorm headed to Milwaukee this week is supposed to miss Chicago for the most part.

 

As for Suppan and Bush vs. Cubs. Bush should be fine if it's a cold day with wind blowing in. He'll be able to get away with his usual bugaboo of grooving a couple down the heart of the plate. I also like Suppan's experience for pitching in adverse conditions.

[LUKE232323]

Given that Bush projects better than Suppan and about the same as Villanueva not sure why people want to take a guy who can give 200 innings and put him in long relief.

Probably because most don't agree with any projections that have Bush as good as Villanueva this year. It could happen, but I do not think it will.

 

In my opinion, Villanueva/Bush is a better starter pen combination than Bush/McClung, and I think most would agree. They will not put Villanueva in the ML bullpen. I'd say the same is true with a Parra/Bush combination compared to Bush/McClung.

[GoudaBrew]

They have said they only view Villanueva as a starter.

Don't they want to keep Parra from the pen too? I know he's said he isn't as comfortable coming out of the pen than he is starting. And lets face it, his future is as a starter not a long reliever.

 

[LUKE232323]

They have said they only view Villanueva as a starter.

Don't they want to keep Parra from the pen too? I know he's said he isn't as comfortable coming out of the pen than he is starting. And lets face it, his future is as a starter not a long reliever.

 

 

I would agree, that is why I think Parra either stays in the rotation or goes to AAA. They are not going to have much to go by at that point, IMO Bush/Parra will have both only had two starts. I guess my biggest issue with it all is McClung having a ML roster spot over either CV/Parra (if one goes down).

[brewjihad]

Odds are that Parra goes to AAA for awhile when Gallardo comes back, unless Bush is really struggling. Then he can be called up in case of an injury or if Villy would need a few starts at AAA, like last year.

 

Suggesting Bush could be traded has no reason behind it. They'll need a minimum of six starters at all times. I think they're fine with Narveson as the #7, but Bush will be here all year.

[TooLiveBrew]

With Bush, it's all about keeping guys off the bases (sounds like a 'no duh', but it's especially crucial for Dave). He doesn't do well from the stretch, so fortunately one of his strengths is not walking guys. I think that of all our SP, Bush will benefit the most from the improved IF defense.

[Legacy25GT]

I'm a really big Villanueva fan, and glad that he finally has his spot in the rotation like he should have last year. My friends and I came up with a nickname for him, and I'd like to hear what you guys think about it. Ready for it? "The Assassin" since he seems so methodical and cold on the mound, and solely from the expression on his face, you couldn't tell whether he just gave up a 3-run HR, just struck out the side, or just offed the opposing team's bench coach.

[brewerinvegas]

It seems to me that the choice will be between sending Parra to AAA or sending Villanueva to AAA. I don't see them putting Bush or either of the youngsters in the bullpen.

[LUKE232323]

It seems to me that the choice will be between sending Parra to AAA or sending Villanueva to AAA. I don't see them putting Bush or either of the youngsters in the bullpen.

I think Parra to the bullpen is an option (although unlikely), but not Villanueva and almost certainly not Bush. My guess is Parra to AAA when Yovanni comes back, to limit his innings. If he pitches well at AAA he will definitely be back on the club for the home stretch, I would think.

[rluzinski]

Probably because most don't agree with any projections that have Bush as good as Villanueva this year.

Villy is the kind of player that seems to give fans unrealistic expectations He's had some success but it's been over a short period of time and his periphrials haven't been anything great. What ERA do people expect from Bush and Villy this year? Off the top of my head, here's mine:

Villy: 4.40 ERA
Bush: 4.50 ERA

We can argue about the exact order but they aren't worlds apart, like some seem to think..

[LUKE232323]

Probably because most don't agree with any projections that have Bush as good as Villanueva this year.

Villy is the kind of player that seems to give fans unrealistic expectations He's had some success but it's been over a short period of time and his periphrials haven't been anything great. What ERA do people expect from Bush and Villy this year? Off the top of my head, here's mine:

 

Villy: 4.40 ERA

Bush: 4.50 ERA

 

We can argue about the exact order but they aren't worlds apart, like some seem to think..

I don't think they will be worlds apart either, I just think Villanueva will be better. Villanueva has slightly better stuff and doesn't give up nearly as many big innings. People love Bush because of his low walk totals and high K/BB ratio, but when it comes to actually not letting runners across, he has struggled in that area while CV has not.

[TooLiveBrew]

When you limit your sample to Villy's 168 MLB IP, then you arrive at premature absolutes like "but when it comes to actually not letting runners across, [bush] has struggled in that area while CV has not."

The reason people are tempering expectations on Villy is that he got fairly lucky in avoiding the damage from BBing guys as much as he did last year. If he'd had the weak bullpen support that Capuano got, many would be stating how overrated he is, and not ready for MLB.

[endaround]

Bush's 2007 FIP 4.53

Villanueva's 2007 FIP 4.76

 

I think people forget that Bush was pretty good back in 2006.

[LUKE232323]

Yes, 168 IP is a somewhat small sample. However, career CV has a better ERA (3.86 to 4.25)/WHIP (1.24 to 1.25)/BAA (.230 to .268) than Bush does. Is it also out of line to say that Villanueva has a better chance to improve given age than Bush (not that it is a guarantee, but more likely)?

 

I guess the season will bear it out.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Villy could improve marginally, but by & large what you see is what you're going to get. ERA & WHIP aren't very good stats to use since they're both influenced heavily by things out of a pitcher's control (besides, 1.24 is basically identical to 1.25). The incredibly low BAA for Carlos thus far is a pretty good indication of why people are being cautiously optimistic - a number like .230 is not an accurate talent indicator... instead something that is going to regress back towards the mean.

 

I think both are quality options for the #3-5 spots of the rotation, and about on an equal ground in terms of talent, with Bush being better at limiting BBs, and CV better at not getting murdered while pitching from the stretch.

[DrWood]

the conjecture seems to assume that Yo will move right back into the rotation. I'd suspect he goes to the pen for a week or two, but maybe not if they get him a few 5+ inning starts in Nashville first.

[TooLiveBrew]

So you're referring to Parra? I don't see how Villy is the better choice to send to AAA.

[brewerinvegas]

I think it's a given that he would be sent to the minors for a couple of rehab starts.

[dvoiss]

I would think Yo would move into the rotation and Manny will go to Nashville. The pen doesn't really need another arm (Bush or CV) and they really want to limit Parra's innings so that makes the most sense to me.

[rluzinski]

Yes, 168 IP is a somewhat small sample.

 

That's a very small sample with a lot of uncertainty attached to it. I'm not saying to ignore it but no way you start deriving absolutes from it. If Villy has a bad 200 innings this year, I can guarantee you that someone will use it as proof that "Villy can't get people out when it counts" or something else along those lines. I like Villy as does the majority of Brewers fans. I just don't see much difference between, Villy, Bush or Capuano. Certainly not enough to have been "shocked" by whomever made it into the starting rotation among them.

 

People sometimes have very strong opinions on players knowing too little to justify it, IMO. It's why public sentiment can shift so drastically from year to year for some players (Cappy and Hall being two good examples, IMO).

[The Active 33]

This is random, but according to the rotation Sheets will be pitching on April 15 @ St. Louis correct? I was thinking about going down to that game. Thanks

[bork]

This is random, but according to the rotation Sheets will be pitching on April 15 @ St. Louis correct? I was thinking about going down to that game. Thanks

Probably not. Yost mentioned skipping Parra at times, but I don't think the others will get skipped. So Sheets probably won't be pitching every 5 days, with the days off. It could be Bush on the 15th if they keep the top 4 lined up, with Parra filling the gaps.

 

 

If Gallardo gets 3 more starts in the minors, the last one would fall on the 11th. So he could be ready to go on the 16th or so.

[steve267268]

It would be great if Bush could turn that corner and become a solid pitcher but i just don't see it... Suppan is just the #2 because he makes a lot of money.

 

In my opinion, our best five are (when healthy):

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Villy

Parra

Suppan

 

Too bad about Capuano... He's a great person but i'd rather have Parra or Villy and I suppose i would rather have Suppan than Bush or Vargas...

 

We just have way too many average arms don't we? If we keep Sheets for cheaper it'd be nice to get one more real solid pitcher in there..

[TooLiveBrew]

In terms of talent, it's probably

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Parra

Bush

Villy

Soup

 

But those last three are more or less interchangeable.

[Tbadder]

I'd agree with the above but I'd switch Yo and Benny.