How to keep Parra at 170 innings or less

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

We need Manny Parra in 2008 and 2009 and 2010 and 2011 and 2012.

We do, and I agree with saving his innings, but the conservatives out there have to remember that we need to go for it this year. Parra could just as easily get hurt in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 by saving his innings so if it comes down to an extra start or two, I'm ok with going with Manny because we need to take advantage of his health while we have it. I don't see Manny being an injury free pitcher throughout his career.

 

That said, I'd still try to keep him around 170 innings to mitigate risk, but if it comes down to us needing him against the Cubs in the last series of the year or in the playoffs, we need to pitch him and take that chance.

 

[Roscoe Chill]

Well I just pulled Jeffress out of the air as an example.

 

I agree they need Parra in the upcoming years. But AndThat, I went and found the thread last year about Gallardo's innings, and people were putting that number in front of a playoff opportunity. Had the Brewers been lucky enough to make the playoffs last year, most people on this website would have had Gallardo coming out of the bullpen...which would have been ridiculous.

 

Parra is kind of in the same boat. At what point do people start realizing that the Brewers aren't going to be a contender in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Maybe one or two of those years...hopefully at least one of those years.

 

But they are a contender this year. Gallardo's injury this year only reinforces my feelings on going for it now, which would include Manny Parra.

 

Of course, you can be careful with leads and everything, but to say at the end of the season if Parra is 15-7 with a 3.30 ERA and he's at 180 innings and the Brewers are heading in to the playoffs, and you're going to put him in the pen? That's just silly to me.

[And That]

Of course, you can be careful with leads and everything, but to say at the end of the season if Parra is 15-7 with a 3.30 ERA and he's at 180 innings and the Brewers are heading in to the playoffs, and you're going to put him in the pen? That's just silly to me.

The thing is, it can be easily managed to where Parra has 140-160 going into the playoffs. And to accomplish that, you put him in the pen for a little while now, especially as long as Bush is pitching well. To keep his innings to that level, he'll only have to miss 4-6 starts. That's not a whole lot, and the marginal difference between him and McClung (or Suppan, if you want to look at it that way) over that time frame is not that large. Plus, you have the added advantage of Parra in the pen for a bit.

I guess I really don't see the downside to keeping Parra as healthy as possible for the long run while keeping him out of maybe 25-30 innings in total this year.

 

[Roscoe Chill]

I totally understand the reasoning. I just don't think you're going to see the Brewers move him out of the rotation. And that's a good thing IMO. Maybe if they start running away with the wild card...but if that were the case, they'd most likely be right there with the Cubs as well.

 

I think the best example of why I think the Brewers are thinking more like me (with obvious awareness of the situation) is the fact that they went with Parra from the beginning of the year.

 

They've essentially ended Matt LaPorta's Brewers career (and spent an extra $7 million to do so) for a shot at the playoffs this year, I think a couple dozen innings over a limit for Parra will be worth the risk.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I guess I really don't see the downside to keeping Parra as healthy as possible for the long run while keeping him out of maybe 25-30 innings in total this year.

The downside would be if we missed the playoffs by one or two games and we lost most of the starts that Manny could have pitched. All I know is that if Parra is held out of the Cubs or Cards series because of saving his innings, I'm not going to be a happy camper.

[And That]

I'm going to bow out of the discussion for now because I think the two school of thought on this are far enough apart where we're not going to change each other's minds.

 

I'd like to see Parra kept to 170 or fewer innings. The 30 innings he gives up to someone else, preferably now and not later in the season, are a very small percentage of innings pitched by the club this year. There are an infinite number of "what if" scenarios involving the innings he wouldn't pitch, but statistically, there would be very little difference in the impact of those 30 innings on the club if Parra pitched them, or if Suppan/McClung/Bush/Villanueva pitched them. The average marginal output between Parra and any of those guys over the course of 30 innings just isn't that great. During that span, Suppan could have a 2.50 ERA and Parra could have a 7.00 ERA. Who knows, really?

 

I do know that there seems to be some merit to the practice of gradually ramping up the pressure put on the arm, and many teams have arrived at the number of 25-30 innings increase per year. I also know we need Manny Parra going forward, whether or not we are in the playoff contention between '09 and '12 or not. If he is pitching for us over that time span, our odds are better than if we lose him to injury.

 

There are infinite possibilities of infinite things happening over the course of the rest of the season. The Brewers know what is at stake, and they need to balance that with the future of the franchise. 30 innings is not that much to the 2008 Brewers, but it could be a lot for Manny Parra and the Brewers' future postseason prospects.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I agree with you mostly, And That. I do think Parra's innings should be limited to 170 innings, but I just don't want it to be at the expense of an extra start or two in a critical game.

[Oldcity]

After the Cubs series at the end of July, the Brewers play the Braves, Reds, Nats, Padres, Dodgers, Astros and Pirates before facing the Cardinals again. That seems like a perfect time to skip a few of Parra's starts and still have him in the rotation for all the Cubs and Cards series.

[LouisEly]

Why not wait until September 1st to move Parra to the pen or piggy-back him to limit his innings? As mentioned earlier, you can skip him once or twice in that August stretch, and then wait until they have DiFelice, Dillard, Pena, Narron, and perhaps Hammond, and then piggy-back him with one of those guys. Right now I count 38 on the 40-man, plus they could 60-day Capuano and release/DFA/outright Mota and Gardner.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

doing the math....Parra has roughly 14 starts left in the 2008 season. If Manny averages 6 innings in those 14 starts that would equal 84 innings. Add that to the 93 innings already pitched this season and that equals 177 innings pitched through the 2008 regular season. Ride the pony while he is hot.

[BillScottCanRake]

doing the math....Parra has roughly 14 starts left in the 2008 season. If Manny averages 6 innings in those 14 starts that would equal 84 innings. Add that to the 93 innings already pitched this season and that equals 177 innings pitched through the 2008 regular season. Ride the pony while he is hot.

 

And what if he makes 4 more starts that average six innings in the playoffs? That would be 177 + 24, or 201, or just short of 66 more than the year before. Would you let him go that many innings? I am not saying it's wrong, I'm just curious how far you'd let him go.

 

As for my own opinion on this, I tend to agree with Toby (AndThat) that it would be nice to see him sitting at 155 innings at the end of the year regular season. If he's at 155, even if he makes 5 7-inning starts he's "only" at 190. And while that is definitely higher than I'd like to see him go, it's a lot better than 200-210. It limits the wear and tear on his arm and still gives Milwaukee a good shot at not only making the post season but doing well when they get there.

[jeffy]

what if he makes 4 more starts that average six innings in the playoffs? That would be 177 + 24, or 201, or just short of 66 more than the year before. Would you let him go that many innings?

 

Yeah, why not. Do you think he is going to say: "nah, don't put me on the post-season roster, my arm will surely fall off should I pitch 171 innings (or 180 or whatvever arbitary number you want to pick)". I don't get all the fretting over this, don't know much about it, but my impression is there is not much evidence behind this innings guidline that some are so worried about Parra exceeding. As has been pointed out the team did not seem overly concerned about this last season with with Gallardo...I suppose that is why he is injured this year http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif.

 

 

[And That]

As has been pointed out the team did not seem overly concerned about this last season with with Gallardo

But they were... they took him out of the rotation for 3 weeks and only increased his workload by 30 innings. Which is exactly what they should do with Parra.

 

[BillScottCanRake]

Yeah, why not. Do you think he is going to say: "nah, don't put me on the post-season roster, my arm will surely fall off should I pitch 171 innings (or 180 or whatvever arbitary number you want to pick)". I don't get all the fretting over this, don't know much about it, but my impression is there is not much evidence behind this innings guidline that some are so worried about Parra exceeding.

 

The line of thinking is not "When Parra reaches his innings limit he is going to be injured", but rather "For younger pitchers who are still developing, yearly increases in innings pitched above 25-30 innings increase the odds of an injury". For a pitcher with a history of arm troubles who only exceeded 100 innings in a season once since 2003, I think that is a big deal.

 

As has been pointed out the team did not seem overly concerned about this last season with with Gallardo

 

Gallardo was removed from the rotation after his June 29 start and not returned until July 19 when he replaced Ben Sheets in the rotation, with the Brewers in the middle of the playoff chase. In between he made three relief appearances of 2.2, 2.0 and 4.2 innings, with the last being in relief of an injured Ben Sheets. Assuming that he missed three starts and would have gone six innings in each, that's 9ish innings that were shaved his totals from last year. I suspect he would have remained in the pen longer if not for Sheet's injury. To me that is showing concern about his workload, even tho it didn't work out quite like the Brewers had hoped it would.

 

Additionally, Gallardo progressed nicely from 121 innings in 2005 to 155 in 2006 (plus playoffs, I think another 7) to 200 combined innings in 2007. While his increase last year that is a little on the high-end, a 38-inning increase for a guy without a history of arm troubles is much different than a 60+ inning increase of Parra remains in the rotation from now thru the end of the playoffs.

 

Again, it's not cut and dry, so I certainly can't say someone is wrong for wanting to let him pitch. Given his injury history and how important he is to the 2008 and 2009 Brewers, I hope the team is smart about managing his workload from here on out.

[logan82]

Why not wait until September 1st to move Parra to the pen or piggy-back him to limit his innings?

I think it would be better to do it now instead of in September because then he can be worked back up to startng by the middle of September instead of trying to work him back up to starting in the middle of the playoffs.

[Bucky Rules]

But they were... they took him out of the rotation for 3 weeks and only increased his workload by 30 innings. Which is exactly what they should do with Parra.

 

 

 

 

If Bush and McClung can continue to pitch as they have so far, theoretically it really wouldn't be that difficult to send Parra to the BP when Suppan comes back. Of course, in the middle of a pennant race, it becomes much more difficult to pull the string on a move like that knowing that you're probably not sending your five best to the mound every rotation.

But there is enough depth there in this scenario to make it happen.

[PrimeTime955]

This is exactly why I thought Parra should have started the season in the bullpen as a long man and worked his way into the rotation with injuries and performance issues.

[Roscoe Chill]

Of course, I see the point in Parra's innings concern. But when your manager doesn't even take you out when it's obvious you're gassed, I just don't see them pulling him out of the rotation. Translation: Tonight Yost should have said "atta boy" after the team gave him a three run lead, but no. They'll just wait and cap his workload in crunch time, and they'll miss the playoffs by a game or two again.

[Ennder]

Of course, I see the point in Parra's innings concern. But when your manager doesn't even take you out when it's obvious you're gassed, I just don't see them pulling him out of the rotation. Translation: Tonight Yost should have said "atta boy" after the team gave him a three run lead, but no. They'll just wait and cap his workload in crunch time, and they'll miss the playoffs by a game or two again.

 

Yeah that confused me too. I thought to myself that it was the perfect chance to skim 1 IP off of Manny's load by taking him out after 6 tonight but not only do they leave him in they let him pitch to at least 1 batter too many and end up losing the W for him as well.

[Roscoe Chill]

Actually, since the Boston series, I haven't had too many beefs with Ned Yost. But this whole thing has me getting a tad worried that Ned's going to freak out down the stretch again.

[logan82]

Well if they are worried about Parra's innings, I think he may be the odd man out for the playoffs. It has been bothering me for a couple weeks now and I am afraid that our playoff rotation would be CC, Sheets and Suppan. Parra has never pitched this many innings in any of his professional years. We are past the point of putting him in the pen to be ready for the playoffs. Does the team ignore his innings and go for it this year or does Parra get shipped to the pen the last week of September?

[fondybrewfan]

Well if they are worried about Parra's innings, I think he may be the odd man out for the playoffs. It has been bothering me for a couple weeks now and I am afraid that our playoff rotation would be CC, Sheets and Suppan. Parra has never pitched this many innings in any of his professional years. We are past the point of putting him in the pen to be ready for the playoffs. Does the team ignore his innings and go for it this year or does Parra get shipped to the pen the last week of September?

I wouldn't be opposed to that at all if we have the wild card sown up by then. If it is going to come down to the last series I would be inclined to keep him in there as long as he isn't showing any signs of wearing down. The way Soup has pitched of late (although he gave up his fair share or hard hit outs today) makes me a little more confident in him come playoff time although I don't know if it is a lock that Suppan would be taken over Bush. But since Soup has the playoff experience I would have to believe that he would be the choice