How to keep Parra at 170 innings or less

[dadofandrew]

Unless they have him pitch in relief at AAA, moving him down won't limit his innings much.

[danzig6767]

Melvin and others in the front office aren't stupid people, i'm confident that they'll monitor Parra through the season based not just on the number of innings he throws, but also on how many pitches he throws. Then they'll have to talk to Parra and make sure he's honest with them as the innings rack up about how he feels physically.

 

If his velocity starts to drop, Parra starts looking like he's laboring, and/or he tells them he's starting to wear down, then obviously the team has to take some steps to get him some rest. While Yost can make moves that makes me question his sanity, i don't fear for a second that Ned will get any Dusty Bakeritis and have Parra out there in games throwing 110-120 pitches while chasing a win or two.

 

I think with some common sense and truthful communication between Parra and the coaches/front office, the Brewers don't have to set an exact number for the number of innings Manny throws this year.

[logan82]

How much should we count pitching in winter ball?

[southpaw121505]

Unless they have him pitch in relief at AAA, moving him down won't limit his innings much.

But you can have him on a strict pitch count so even if he only goes 5 innings then so be it. Screw the AAA pen, not the one in Milwaukee

[don1481]

And finally, all but had his shoulder replaced? C'mon, I've had a cadaver ligament put in my shoulder. Manny Parra did NOT all but have his shoulder replaced. That's a grossly exaggerated statement

....

And finally, as I've argued, you can't use the 30 inning a year rule as a absolute, otherwise if a pitcher misses an entire year, then they're going to need about 5 years to get up to a normal Inning count. What, start him out at 30 innings, then go to 60, then 90...obviously that's not realistic, but I'd argue that if a pitcher was healthy all year, and then did something like break a thumb on a bunt, you can reasonably assume that he can go from the 30(Which I've always heard was 40, but let's say that the number thrown around on this board is correct) to the 45 or so that would take Parra to 170.

Actually, Parra has had 3 consecutive years of shoulder problems (2004-2006):

 

The 24-year-old Parra missed parts of the last three seasons with shoulder injuries, even having his 2005 campaign cut short by surgery in August to repair a torn rotator cuff. Parra still was taking anti-inflammatory drugs for his shoulder as recently as mid-May this year, but he now feels his injuries are a thing of the past.

So let me get this straight: You want to put Parra, who has a documented history of shoulder problems, at a much higher workload than he's ever seen before? Even though he wasn't 100% healthy for all of 2007? It's not that Parra missed one year; it's that he essentially missed large chunks of three seasons because of shoulder issues. If Parra does make it through 170 IP this year without issue, then by all means take the kid gloves off - he'll be able to handle 200+ in 2009. But I just do not see the reason for the Brewers to push Parra too hard this season without a close watch on IP and pitch counts. "Win now" does not mean "sacrifice the future to do so."

 

Unless they have him pitch in relief at AAA, moving him down won't limit his innings much.

I'm concerned not just about the IP but also about the pitches thrown. The point of limiting him to 4-5IP/start and a strict pitch count gives him regular work - which putting him in the pen would preclude - and limits his overall workload. I'm saying to only keep him at AAA for a few months; give him about 110 IP in Milwaukee - which, at 6 IP/start, comes out to being about 18 starts. Remember - Yo didn't even average 6 IP/start last year, and he doesn't have the injury history that Parra possesses.

 

Also... I'm only talking 110 IP in the regular season in Milwaukee; we'd want Parra for October, right...? I'm only figuring he'd get 10 starts in AAA, so 45 IP there, which puts him at 155 for the regular season. The remaining 15 or so IP could get him through 2-3 post-season starts (assuming he has one start per round of the playoffs). I'd be quite down with this for Manny in 2008.

[Gopher74]

don1481 wrote:

Actually, Parra has had 3 consecutive years of shoulder problems (2004-2006):

 

Great. That doesn't mean that he's "all but had his shoulder replaced". That's still a grossly exaggerated statement.

 

So let me get this straight: You want to put Parra, who has a documented history of shoulder problems, at a much higher workload than he's ever seen before? Even though he wasn't 100% healthy for all of 2007?

 

Are you talking about his thumb? I don't see how that's even relevant. Otherwise, not sure what you mean by "wasn't 100 pct healthy for all of 2007". He was. His arm was fine the entire year.

Second, I don't know that I said I "wanted" anything. I stated that he'd likely have thrown 150 last year as he was at 133 when he went down after being moved into the starting rotation and didn't experience any shoulder or elbow issues. I don't consider going to 170 to be "a much higher workload". This also has little to do with my wants or wishes.

It's not that Parra missed one year; it's that he essentially missed large chunks of three seasons because of shoulder issues.

 

Yes, I'm well versed on his shoulder issues. I also think that's been covered ad nauseum on this thread. We all get it. He's had a history of shoulder injuries, but we either put in him the rotation, or we keep him down in AAA if you don't want to go over 150 for us this year. I'd rather go with someone who can go 6 or 7 innings throughout the year.

If Parra does make it through 170 IP this year without issue, then by all means take the kid gloves off - he'll be able to handle 200+ in 2009. But I just do not see the reason for the Brewers to push Parra too hard this season without a close watch on IP and pitch counts. "

 

Well, that's different than what you said earlier, but you and I clearly have differing definitions of "too hard". I think I've said that he should be able to go 170. I honestly don't know what you're arguing about if this is the case. My entire argument was based on the premise that he COULD pitch 170 innings. That's what you argued. Now you're saying that's what he should pitch?

"Win now" does not mean "sacrifice the future to do so."

 

Obviously. Again, who ever suggested that it did. You're not exactly informing us of anything in this lesson. I fully understand that Parra's been hurt, and I get that you're not suppose to sacrifice the future. I guess I don't agree that the Brewers future will fall apart if we throw Parra for 170 innings this year.

 

As for the rest, alright. I don't know what makes you think that they'd all the sudden limit Parra to 4 or 5 innings a start in AAA when they'd be trying to keep him ready for Milwaukee. I don't know how anyone could think it a wise idea to have a guy go from starting for 4 innings to starting in the big leagues asking him to go 7, or in the playoffs.

 

Frankly, I'd rather set him down for 15 days, and give him a break than waste 45 innings in the minors if he's really throwing the ball that well.

 

But again, I don't know what the point of this entire argument is when from my very first post I've argued that he could and should go 170, and now you've stated the same thing.

[Gopher74]

If his velocity starts to drop, Parra starts looking like he's laboring, and/or he tells them he's starting to wear down, then obviously the team has to take some steps to get him some rest. While Yost can make moves that makes me question his sanity, i don't fear for a second that Ned will get any Dusty Bakeritis and have Parra out there in games throwing 110-120 pitches while chasing a win or two.

 

I think with some common sense and truthful communication between Parra and the coaches/front office, the Brewers don't have to set an exact number for the number of innings Manny throws this year.

Exactly, these decisions aren't made in a vacuum and they're not made on message boards. If his shoulder feels just fine and he experiences no discomfort, there's no reason to worry about it. Some pitchers have issues early in their career, and then don't have them later on. Some will always have it no matter how little they pitch. Of course you don't throw him 300 innings if his arm feels good, but you can go 170 and maybe even past it depending on the situation.

 

And yes, the only real issue I have with Yost for the most part is how he handled the pen last year. I love how he handles young players pretty much across the board. He's always done a great job with the young guys in the big leagues, and the young arms.

[MillerParkSouth]

interesting tidbit from ESPN's Keith Law

 

Bryan-MA: T/F.....Parra keeps his rotation spot for the rest of the year?

 

Keith Law: (1:22 PM ET ) True.

 

 

I don't see how this is possible if we want to limit his innings.

[ecjimg]

The Brewers of course were well aware of this situation going into the season. Wouldnt it have made sense to just skip March (spring training) and April. He could have thrown in AZ in May and then pitched for the rest of the season without all this innings juggling or planning.

[jazzytrav]

interesting tidbit from ESPN's Keith Law

 

Bryan-MA: T/F.....Parra keeps his rotation spot for the rest of the year?

 

Keith Law: (1:22 PM ET ) True.

 

 

I don't see how this is possible if we want to limit his innings.

Consider the source...

 

I can't stand Keith Law.

[DrWood]

Most #5 starters don't come close to 170 innings.

This is such a non-issue.

[twobrewers]

Most #5 starters don't come close to 170 innings.

Most teams also skip their #5 starter to keep the "ace" on his regular 5 day schedule as well. The Brewers have already said that they won't do this.

 

Also, most #5 starters are bad. Hence, they are removed from the rotation before they have a chance to hit 170 innings.

I understand your point that it might be moot - but failure to plan for the possibility would be unwise.

 

[Gopher74]

Most #5 starters don't come close to 170 innings.

This is such a non-issue.

This is the status of a guy that you believe is a potential future ace. This is anything but a non-issue.

 

Your whole stance on him not getting over 175 innings is based on what YOU'D suggest they do, not what they've said they're going to do. You keep saying you want them to skip him, which they're not going to do. If he gets 30 starts, which would be skipping him a couple times, he'd be at 180 if he averaged 6 per outing obviously. I don't think it's hard to envision him going at least 6 per.

And as was pointed out, most number 5's don't get close to 170 because they're not very good. Manny Parra's really not a number 5 in anything other than the simple fact he starts the 5th game of the season. They're not going to skip him, his performance likely won't force them to remove him.

 

So I don't really see how you can see this as a non-issue. It's a huge issue for this team right now.

 

[bork]

I'm predicting Parra gets two starts and then gets sent to AAA. Gallardo takes over on the 19th. That leaves Parra and Narveson in AAA in case of injury (And hope we never have to get to Jackson).

 

Fans keep talking about Bush to the pen, but the Brewers have given no indication of doing this.

[kramnoj]

I think of a young pitcher's arm like driving on ice. You don't know that you've gone across the danger zone until it's too late. It's best to be cautious and not get maximum value than attempt to get the most and have a crash.

[adambr2]

The good thing is, this will hopefully be the last year that we'll have to worry about this. Assuming Parra doesn't run into any health problems this year and goes about how many innings we're expecting, we can pretty much take the leash off him next year.

 

I wish they would just skip Parra and therefore maximize Sheets' starts, too. I don't understand why they won't, unless they're worried about overworking Sheets and him being injuried. But Sheets' injury history doesn't appear to be anything that was the result of being overworked.

 

But since it doesn't appear they're going to do that, they have a few choices:

 

1 - Move him to the pen for a month or two, then move him back to the rotation for the rest of the season.

2 - Send him down to AAA, then limit and shorten his starts in AAA. Call him back up this summer.

3 - Send him out there every 5th day, roll the dice and let him throw the 185-195 innings that he could easily end up throwing.

 

Option 3 would probably be foolish. Option 1 is similar to what they did with Gallardo last season. Since they have Bush, I would imagine they'll be going with Option 2.

[Brewer Fever]

How about a 6-man rotation for a couple months. That would keep down everyone's innings.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think it is helpful that Parra is getting 5 days rest between starts. I'm sure they'll skip his start a few times in June/July to keep his innings down and get Sheets and Gallardo on 4 days rest in that time frame.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Friday's start helped the cause of keeping his innings down. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Only 4 innings today. We're saving him for September!

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'd say now would be a great time to send Parra down because he hasn't been able to go deep into games very well this year. Send him down to AAA to work on his pitches and limit his innings and have Yo take his place and pray to God that Bush can be a high 4 ERA pitcher.

[jjfanec]

It is probably time to look at this again. Parra is at 93 innings according to baseball-reference. The goal was to keep him at 170 giving him around 80 innings to work with 14-15 starts. He could be skipped a couple times late in the year when we have extra days off. I think this shows why we need to get another pitcher. Parra is pitching great right now, but he will have to be shut down for a little while and Sheets cannot carry this rotation by himself.

[logan82]

Hope we get CC and shift Parra to AAA or the bulpen for a month.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Hope we get CC and shift Parra to AAA or the bulpen for a month.

Why would they send the guy who's been their 2nd best starter to the minors in a pennant chase? Secondly, how is sending him to AAA going to limit his innings?

 

[Mr QL]

He's on pace for about 170 innings. I'm not too worried. We need him in the rotation the way it is now.