How to keep Parra at 170 innings or less

[adambr2]

Let's assume we draw the line for Manny Parra at 170 innings this year. We can keep him around this mark, and still leave him in the rotation the entire year. We simply need to push back or skip his starts every chance we get. I checked it out, and if we do this, he should get around 27 starts this year. Assuming about 6 to 6 1/3 innings per start, that leaves Parra at between 162-171 innings.

Sheets should start every time he's had 4 off days. Same with Suppan, unless Sheets has had 4 days. I'm assuming a mid-April return for Gallardo, at which point Bush should be pushed back to long relief.

We can keep Parra in the rotation all year, without having to mess around and put him in the bullpen and throw him off his routine like we had to do with Gallardo last year for awhile. We just need to make sure to give him maximum rest between starts when possible. Hopefully, he'll be able to adjust when he has long layovers, because I think this would be the perfect way to keep his innings down while still the team the maximum benefit that Parra can give us.

[DWadeMU3]

You make a big assumption saying that Bush goes to the bullpen when Yo returns...It wouldn't surprise me to see Manny get sent to the pen when Yo gets back. Not saying I agree with it - but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

[DrWood]

you describe what I've been advocating for awhile. If he is just stellar, they might have to move him to the pen for a couple of weeks, but if he's stellar, we should want him doing that for Milwaukee.

[RickieWeeksJr]

I'm going to represent the minority, but I'm saying it anyway.

 

He's a grown man playing baseball. The same game he played since he was probably 7 years old. Just let him make his starts and give all the innings talk a rest.

[adambr2]

I just think Bush is a better candidate for moving to the pen than Parra. I'm a little concerned with sticking Parra there for a month or two and then trying to build up his arm again to start. Especially in his rookie season, I think it'd be best just to not mess with his routine. He's built to be a starter. I think if you give Bush a couple weeks to adjust, he can come out of the pen without much trouble.

 

The only real benefit of sending Parra to the pen that I can see is to keep his innings down.

 

Ultimately though, I think which one of the 3 (Bush, Parra, Villanueva) that gets sent down to the pen will be pretty simple -- whichever one is performing the worst of the 3 in the rotation.

[endaround]

The problem with that is 170 innings it too many. Parra is more in line for 150 than 170.

[adambr2]

I'm going to represent the minority, but I'm saying it anyway.

 

He's a grown man playing baseball. The same game he played since he was probably 7 years old. Just let him make his starts and give all the innings talk a rest.

 

He may be a grown man playing baseball, but I think letting him start the entire season and potentially pitch 200+ innings after never pitching over 140 before would potentially be a horrible mistake, one that Yost and Melvin might never live down. There's a reason that you generally don't increase a pitcher's workload by more than 30 innings a year, especially one with an injury history. It's because past results have not been favorable when that has been done.

[JJHardy7]

I just think Bush is a better candidate for moving to the pen than Parra. I'm a little concerned with sticking Parra there for a month or two and then trying to build up his arm again to start. Especially in his rookie season, I think it'd be best just to not mess with his routine. He's built to be a starter. I think if you give Bush a couple weeks to adjust, he can come out of the pen without much trouble.

 

They did do this with him in his "rookie" season last year -- I know he didn't have enough innings pitched for it to be his "rookie" season, but I'm not a fan of that rule. He made only 2 starts out of 9 appearances. I think a lot of it will just be on how long his starts are and if his arm is looking tired. Depending on how the rosters go during the year we can always send Parra down for a few spot starts if we need an extra bat on the bench for a short period.

[Klements Bratwurst]

I posted this on the Vargas transaction thread, but I think it now belongs better in this thread as it brings up my concerns with this move. I wonder if there isn't something else cooking for Melvin that we don't know about? Possibly, but I doubt it.

"The big question that I have is how is Manny Parra going to pitch into October if we are blessed with playing that long? I wonder if they have a plan for that?

Yo goes into the rotation when he returns and then what for Parra?

Sheets
Gallardo
Suppan
Villy
Bush

Parra to AAA to keep innings down? Or Parra continues to pitch in the rotation with one of the other starters going to the pen (Bush or Villy) and then mid year the Brewers move Parra to the bullpen for a mid summer rest before moving him back to the rotation for the stretch run??? If my math serves me right, Parra can only go 160 innings this year. "

Anyone else worried about relying on all of this youth in the rotation for a possible playoff run? I am a bit worried, but I do agree this is the best 5 starters we have, bar none.

[twobrewers]

I would think the goal should be closer to 150 IP as well. That way you have some leeway come playoffs.

[DWadeMU3]

"Anyone else worried about relying on all of this youth in the rotation for a possible playoff run? I am a bit worried, but I do agree this is the best 5 starters we have, bar none."

 

VERY worried. Not that Vargas was the answer, but I likened it to a security blanket for our young gun starters. If we get in trouble with Yo, Villa and Manny, we're in DEEP trouble. Who do we put in the rotation if one of these guys goes into a Cappy-like funk this year?

 

Maybe my gloom and doom is because I'm a "glass half empty" kind of guy, but I'm not as confident in this rotation as I was yesterday...

[adambr2]

Well, I don't think Parra would be starting the playoffs. They'd probably just go with Sheets, Gallardo, and Suppan.

 

So I don't think Parra would pitch more than maybe 3-5 innings total of relief throughout the entire playoffs, since Villanueva would also then have bullpen duty. If Parra is still healthy at that point, and we're in the playoffs, I'm not overly concerned if we need 3-5 more innings out of him in October.

[adambr2]

"Anyone else worried about relying on all of this youth in the rotation for a possible playoff run? I am a bit worried, but I do agree this is the best 5 starters we have, bar none."

 

VERY worried. Not that Vargas was the answer, but I likened it to a security blanket for our young gun starters. If we get in trouble with Yo, Villa and Manny, we're in DEEP trouble. Who do we put in the rotation if one of these guys goes into a Cappy-like funk this year?

 

Maybe my gloom and doom is because I'm a "glass half empty" kind of guy, but I'm not as confident in this rotation as I was yesterday...

Well, we still have one fall back guy when Gallardo is back. (I'm presuming Bush).

 

Of course, with Vargas gone and Capuano out for the year, it starts to get thin after that. Any further injuries and we'd have to turn to Zack Jackson or Chris Narveson for starts.

[littledoc83]

Well, I don't think Parra would be starting the playoffs. They'd probably just go with Sheets, Gallardo, and Suppan.

 

So I don't think Parra would pitch more than maybe 3-5 innings total of relief throughout the entire playoffs, since Villanueva would also then have bullpen duty. If Parra is still healthy at that point, and we're in the playoffs, I'm not overly concerned if we need 3-5 more innings out of him in October.

You beat me to this. Seems like everyone is worried about Villy and Parra pitching into October, when realistically very few teams use more than 3 starters in the playoffs anyways.

As for the rotation, I really hope that Parra either goes to the pen or to AAA when Yo comes back. I think that Villy has earned a chance to be in the rotation for the entire season barring injury or absolutely terrible performance.

[RightFieldCoder]

I can't shake the feeling that the constant pitching Ben on four days rest no matter what might have some factor in his injuries. Especially with the rumors of his lack of conditioning, mabye it's important to give him those extra off days Aprils allow pitchers.

[JJHardy7]

The answer is painfully obvious -- send him back to Nashville because he needs to sign my Manny Parra game worn jersey (1982 Brewers style) I bought last year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

In all seriousness though Mark DiFelice may not be a horrible option if another pitcher is needed to start to save Parra innings. He has solid control and he'd be able to do the job (I'm not saying he's a stud, but I think he'd be serviceable).

[TooLiveBrew]

Just let him make his starts and give all the innings talk a rest.

 

You're right. That's worked out so well for Prior, Wood, etc. What were we thinking?

[Gopher74]

The problem with that is 170 innings it too many. Parra is more in line for 150 than 170.

I doubt it. He'd of thrown 150 last year at least if not for a fluke thumb injury, so it's not like his arm couldn't handle it last year. I highly doubt he only throws 150 unless he's not effective this season, in which case, he'd be sent to AAA, and still throw that many.

 

The 30 inning a year rule doesn't apply as strictly when a pitcher has a season in which he gets injured, and especially not when he gets injured with something unrelated to throwing. I mean, he went from 86 to 132 last year.

 

 

 

[mothershipconnection]

How to keep Parra at 170 innings or less

 

Give him a bag of Sheet's used Q-tips.

[adambr2]

I don't think 170 innings is overextending Parra this year, but then again, I'm not Parra, his personal trainer, or a doctor, so I'm not positive what he can handle this year or what a safe amount of innings for him to work would be based on his prior injuries, arm strength, etc.. I'm just guessing he should be capped at about 170, max.

 

Of course, the amount of innings he throws doesn't tell as much of the story as his actual pitch count. 5 innings of work from Ben Sheets is a lot different than 5 innings of work from Claudio Vargas.

[brewjihad]

When Gallardo comes back, the most likely move is to ship out Parra to the minors for a few weeks and have him pitch very sparingly down there, keeping Bush in the rotation. Then, if someone is hurt or ineffective (or Carlos V needs a break like he did last year), Parra comes back and we don't have to worry about juggling the rotation all the time.

 

I doubt Parra or Villy are in the pen at any point this year. They're either starting at AAA or in the majors.

[Blindcheck]

I'm going to represent the minority, but I'm saying it anyway.

 

He's a grown man playing baseball. The same game he played since he was probably 7 years old. Just let him make his starts and give all the innings talk a rest.

Thank you, Dusty Baker.

[southpaw121505]

When Gallardo comes back, the most likely move is to ship out Parra to the minors for a few weeks and have him pitch very sparingly down there, keeping Bush in the rotation. Then, if someone is hurt or ineffective (or Carlos V needs a break like he did last year), Parra comes back and we don't have to worry about juggling the rotation all the time.

 

I doubt Parra or Villy are in the pen at any point this year. They're either starting at AAA or in the majors.

I agree 100% with this. I'd love to see Manny stay in the rotation all year I just think we need to play it safe for one more year. And by play it safe I mean have him in the minors pitching every 5th day on a low pitch count so down the stretch we have him. I like him starting the year in the rotation but I don't think Gallardo will be out long and when he's back I'd send Parra down until we need him.

[don1481]

I doubt it. He'd of thrown 150 last year at least if not for a fluke thumb injury, so it's not like his arm couldn't handle it last year. I highly doubt he only throws 150 unless he's not effective this season, in which case, he'd be sent to AAA, and still throw that many.

 

I highly doubt he would have gone 150 last year even if he didn't have the freak thumb injury. I think DM is a little wiser than to let someone with a long, long injury-filled past pitch the most innings of his career after not even throwing 100 for the past several seasons... due to injury, no less.

 

The 30 inning a year rule doesn't apply as strictly when a pitcher has a season in which he gets injured, and especially not when he gets injured with something unrelated to throwing. I mean, he went from 86 to 132 last year.

No, but IMO it applies even more strictly when you're dealing with a pitcher whose shoulder has all but been completely replaced due to injury. I'm honestly surprised he even went 132 last season given his past; I probably would have limited him to closer to 125, with this season being the 150-160 and next season being 180-190 or so. Parra does have a lot of talent; that is not the issue here. The concern is if we let him go Kerry Wood/Mark Prior and up his innings and pitch counts indiscriminately, we most likely have someone who will never be able to pitch again because he'll have blown apart his arm.

 

I've explained elsewhere how the Brewers could keep Parra at under 170, so I'll spare the details here, but basically it will involve him going back to AAA after Yo comes back and being on very strict innings limits and pitch counts. A couple of months limiting him to 4-5 IP/start should buy the Brewers enough "big league" innings after he's stretched out with a few 6+ IP starts. Especially if Parra is used out of the 5-spot and skipped accordingly when in Milwaukee.

[Gopher74]

I highly doubt he would have gone 150 last year even if he didn't have the freak thumb injury. I think DM is a little wiser than to let someone with a long, long injury-filled past pitch the most innings of his career after not even throwing 100 for the past several seasons... due to injury, no less.

 

Well, he was at 133 when he hurt his thumb late in August. You don't think that he could have gotten 3 more starts that year? I don't agree at all.

No, but IMO it applies even more strictly when you're dealing with a pitcher whose shoulder has all but been completely replaced due to injury. I'm honestly surprised he even went 132 last season given his past; I probably would have limited him to closer to 125

At some point he has to pitch a reasonable amount of innings. You're not saying he's not going to be a regular starter until he's 27 or 28 years old. so he'll maybe have 2-3 years in his prime? You're also assuming that he doesn't get injured, or that the extra 20-30 innings are the final straw.

 

And finally, all but had his shoulder replaced? C'mon, I've had a cadaver ligament put in my shoulder. Manny Parra did NOT all but have his shoulder replaced. That's a grossly exaggerated statement.

The concern is if we let him go Kerry Wood/Mark Prior and up his innings and pitch counts indiscriminately, we most likely have someone who will never be able to pitch again because he'll have blown apart his arm.

 

I don't believe anyone but one poster suggested doing anything like this. Wood and Prior threw 120 pitches to 130 on several occasions and pitched well over 200 innings. We're talking about 170 with pitch counts. Those two don't even belong in this conversation. Nobody's suggesting that we abuse him to that degree. There's a huge difference between what you're suggesting and what those two did.

 

I've explained elsewhere how the Brewers could keep Parra at under 170, so I'll spare the details here, but basically it will involve him going back to AAA after Yo comes back and being on very strict innings limits and pitch counts.

 

 

Drwood's made a good point. With a pitcher who has had injury issues, I don't want to waste his innings in the minors. Not when you're talking about an inning a week difference.

 

 

And finally, as I've argued, you can't use the 30 inning a year rule as a absolute, otherwise if a pitcher misses an entire year, then they're going to need about 5 years to get up to a normal Inning count. What, start him out at 30 innings, then go to 60, then 90...obviously that's not realistic, but I'd argue that if a pitcher was healthy all year, and then did something like break a thumb on a bunt, you can reasonably assume that he can go from the 30(Which I've always heard was 40, but let's say that the number thrown around on this board is correct) to the 45 or so that would take Parra to 170.