SI Picks Brewers for 3rd in Central

[pebadger]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/specials/spring_training/2008/previews/index.html?eref=T1

[RyDogg66]

First comment for the Reds:

 

"Young starters are the reason they could make the jump the Rockies did last year."

 

I suppose Gallardo, Parra and Villanueva are not as highly regarded as Cueto, Volquez and ummmm, Josh Fogg?

[trwi7]

Reds with the same amount of wins as the Phillies? Excuse me while I laugh.

 

Righty Carlos Villanueva, 24, and especially lefty Manny Parra, 25, who throws a mid-90s fastball and a big curve, could bolster the rotation. For now, though, they represent a small tweak to a roster that underwent several such improvements this winter, changes that won't be enough to offset the more dramatic moves of the Cubs and the Reds.

Somebody want to tell me what the Cubs and Reds did that was so great? Fukudome and Soto and then Volquez, Fogg, Cordero and Dusty... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[MillerParkSouth]

well this is also the publication that predicted a Dodgers/Angels WS last year, so i'll give them a pass. Even so, that is pretty laughable.

[pebadger]

My instant analysis of SI's analysis:

 

The Reds won the off-season press conference.

[samwise]

Compare the lineups of the Reds and Brewers, and then the rotations; it is very hard to say the Reds are better than the Brewers. Now factor in that our major producers are all entering what seems to be their "prime" years and it is going to take a huge year from the Reds to overtake us in the win column.

 

It must be the manager who will put them over the top...

[RyDogg66]

I really dont see how Griffey/Phillips/Dunn is superior to Fielder/Braun/Hart. As it stands today Sheets and Harang are about equal with a slight edge to Ben if he stays healthy all year, big edge to Harang is Sheets gets hurt (duh.) The bullpens are a push. Call me a homer, but Id take the rest of our lineup (Weeks, Hardy, Cameron, Kendall, Hall) over theirs (C. Patt, Keppinger, Ed. Encarnacion, Ross, Hatteberg). Heck I even like Gallardo/Parra to be as good as Cueto/Volquez.

 

But then again, I am wearing Brewer colored glasses.

[JohnBriggs12]

What difference does it make how highly or not highly regarded our young starters are? There's not going to be more than one at a time in the rotation while we see mediocre veterans like Vargas, Bush and Suppan cost the Brewers another postseason berth.

[samwise]

This is what makes me mad about this prediction. By their own measure PVR, here are the two lineups and pitching rotation side by side.

 

Reds, Brewers

CF 171, 142

RF 57, 53

LF 38, 20

3B 183, 85

SS 209, 69

2B 5, 46

1B 243, 10

C 270, 311

 

Rotation

1 37, 31

2 139, 55

3 112, 120

4 202, 130

5 188, 157

 

Bullpen

1 59, 77

2 146, 157

3 273, 185

 

By their own rankings we outrank them in 11 of 16 positions.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Who cares about this. The Badgers were picked to be 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten in basketball by the sportswriters and we all know how that turned out.

[pebadger]

Say the Brewers do plateau and improve by only two games. Hell, say the Brewers regress by two games and this board explodes. The Reds still have to improve by 11 wins just to catch them in the standings.

 

Could the Reds improve by 15 wins this season and reach the SI projection? Sure. I doubt it, but sure. With Dusty in charge and . . .

 

Looks like SI wants to sell some magazines.

[endaround]

SI's baseball coverage stinks, there is just little to recommend about it.

[bigredrobbo]

I'm not crying in my beer about this analysis any more than I would be buying WS tickets if a magazine said we'd go all the way. They are just opinions, and we all know what they say about opinions...

[MessiahRp]

LOL What a dumb prediction. It keeps sticking in my head that Dusty was telling Reds hitters that they hold the bat on their shoulders too often and he wants Adam Dunn swinging more. The guy strikes out a lot now but if you take even a third of those walk totals and turn them into strike outs and the Reds offense would be in tremendous disarray.

Rp

[Tbadder]

The thing is, there is a chance we'll finish 3rd. I admit it's not as likely as 2nd. But I'd give the Crew a roughly equal chance to take 1st as 3rd. SI on the other hand has stopped being a source of plausible information long ago.

[Big Reed]

I think we are concentrating on the wrong thing here. forget about the reds and who finishes second or third. the main thing to worry about is the Division crown. because second place in this division is not going to garner the wild card . i don't want to be following the team in a wild card chase in September, because like last year, we won't be close.

 

We need to stop trying to finish second, and start trying to win the division. if we can't win the division, all of the rest doesn't really matter.

 

We need 90+ wins! anything less , and we'll be watching Dancing with the Stars and Badger football in October once more..

[Gobias Industries]

I really dont see how Griffey/Phillips/Dunn is superior to Fielder/Braun/Hart. As it stands today Sheets and Harang are about equal with a slight edge to Ben if he stays healthy all year, big edge to Harang is Sheets gets hurt (duh.) The bullpens are a push. Call me a homer, but Id take the rest of our lineup (Weeks, Hardy, Cameron, Kendall, Hall) over theirs (C. Patt, Keppinger, Ed. Encarnacion, Ross, Hatteberg). Heck I even like Gallardo/Parra to be as good as Cueto/Volquez.

 

But then again, I am wearing Brewer colored glasses.

In this case, you're really not wearing the Brewer googles. Everything you said was spot-on.

[joepepsi]

Could the Reds improve by 15 wins this season and reach the SI projection?

Not with Corey Patterson as their starting CF'er.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yet another shining example of the national print media's coverage of baseball becoming obsolete.

 

 

"changes that won't be enough to offset the more dramatic moves of the Cubs and the Reds."

 

Well, we know for certain that this article is drivel with no research behind it. We can move on.

[GAME05]

yawn. it's like every single sports outlet has decided it is better to make mildly-outlandish predictions because that's what garners reader/viewership. To go for somewhat generic predictions but be accurate, apparently we viewers don't want to hear that.

 

it seems best to take sports commentary as what it has become--entertainment--and not researched, expert discussions.

[bucks2281]

SI has really turned into drivel. Yes, there is still a certain prestige to being on the cover of the magazine, and they have great photography, but the writing and reporting is crap. The only good reporter/writer left at SI is Peter King.

 

Rememeber: they picked an Angels/Dodgers World Series last year, and the team the picked to win the Super Bowl (Saints) didn't make the playoffs or even achieve a winning record.

[rluzinski]

For what it's worth, here's what the simulations say:

 

http://www.replacementlevel.com/images/blog_images/NLCentral2008.jpg

 

 

The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 2

 

It's hard to argue with the the first two picks.... unless you want to make a cute pick for the sake of selling magazines.

[datrain711]

yeah don't give SI much credence, every single year they manage to say that it is the Cubs year to contend.

 

John Donovan i'm talking to you.

[brewmann04]

I actuaaly glad not many are picking us it better off that the team again just sneaks up on the Cubs .

[Fatter than Joey]

I think the Reds are on the rise -- I think they could win the division if the winner is around 81 games.