Report: Brewers mull offers to Braun, Fielder -> Latest: Offers made, decision to be made soon

[tigerbrew]

No kidding, the exchange rate here is crazy. I just moved here and that seems to be all that anyone can talk about.

I've lived in Singapore for a long time and I've never ever seen the US Dollar sink this low against the Singapore Dollar, what's worse the sinking has not stop yet.

 

 

 

[tigerbrew]

The original offers may be good, but Boras could talk Prince out of five years and $60 million. OTOH, try talking Prince out of $35 million for 2009 ALONE.

In the offseason, Boras talked Kyle Lohse out of accepting a 3 year $21M offer by the Phillies, and now Lohse ends up signing a one year $4.25M deal with the Cards. I think Prince should be a little careful with his agent Boras, he might not be acting in his client's best interest.

 

If the Brewers can only afford either one of them, I would certainly pick Braun over Fielder. To me Braun is the more valuable player, a potential NL MVP and HOF player. I really hope Braun stays with the Brewers as long as Molitor did.

 

[uwisfan]

Locking up Braun long-term would show an unprecedented commitment to the fans and to the players. It would be a big number, and would give Braun long-term security. It would give the organization additional "discounted" years.

 

Locking up Prince would be risky. He can only play one position (IF THAT, long term). Based on his agent, you are paying a premium. He is not the fan-friendly player Braun is, who is concerned about the community and the welfare of the organization. It seems like "he just wants his". To me its Javon Walker vs Ahman Green or Donald Driver. Braun seems more cerebral and a student of the game, while Prince is all about the bombs and the money. Wait til the end of his contract is near and trade for top prospects, or let him walk in free agency and get some top sandwich picks. I'm just not worried about keeping him, especially with LaPorta on deck.

[DrWood]

i really think prince would be wise to accept an offer if it was good because of one issue: his weight

 

there is just not very good history of people of his body type sustaining long productive careers.

 

I dunno, lots of offensive linemen have long careers. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I can't think of any baseball players who have similar body types to Fielder. The big pitchers tend to not have the base of muscle that Fielder has. Prince is motivated to exceed his father, which, in part, means a longer career.

[jazzytrav]

I can't think of any baseball players who have similar body types to Fielder.

I think Mo Vaughn and David Ortiz are common comparisons. That said, if this is a 5 year offer, I don't think there's really that much to worry about. By the time his contract finishes up, he'll be ready to take on a DH role somewhere. Who knows, maybe the NL will pickup the DH by then http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Locking up Prince would be risky. He can only play one position (IF THAT, long term). Based on his agent, you are paying a premium. He is not the fan-friendly player Braun is, who is concerned about the community and the welfare of the organization. It seems like "he just wants his". To me its Javon Walker vs Ahman Green or Donald Driver. Braun seems more cerebral and a student of the game, while Prince is all about the bombs and the money.

This is completely unfair. How much do you know about Prince's community involvement? I agree that Braun would be a better choice to lock up long-term, but it's because his athletic ability makes it seem like he would have a more consistent career and would be consistently worth the amount he's being paid. Not because I think Prince is somehow "all about the bombs and money". I wouldn't think a player that plays without the amount of passion that we've seen from Prince would be all about the money. Prince is about winning games, and to me that shows a lot of concern for the welfare of the organization.

 

Edit: And if you're going to compare someone to Javon Walker, it better start with Sheffield. I'm not about to put Prince even remotely near that level yet.

[naivin]

Not sure what world you guys who are saying this would be a bad move are living in, but from the Brewers perpective, with talents like these, its pretty much now or never. Sure they will be both be controlled and cheap for another couple years, but with every day that passes closer to Free Agency, there is obviously less and less incentive for the player to even consider it. You have to go through 1-year contracts, potential arbiration hearings, etc. and there is nothing positive that is going to come out of that. Once they start going through that stuff, you can pretty much say goodbye to keeping these guys beyond teh period you own them. Obviously that is not something teh Brewers want to see happen. There is a pretty brief window of time where you can make it appealing to share the risk with the player. Next year, year after, its probably too late and the players will simply decide to take their chances with arbitration and FA. The Brewers are in a posirtuion to somewhat control the negotiations at this point. As time goes by, they lose more and more of that control, and the price goes up.

[endaround]

Braun can't even sniff free agency, his is 6 years away. He won't get arbitration until 2010 at the earliest. There just isn't any need to move right now.

[jazzytrav]

Honest question here:

 

If Braun goes through the entire process, goes through his arby years, then leaves...how much would we have paid him during that time? I realize it's a different amount and will be based on several factors during his arby years, but does anyone have a guess?

 

I just wonder if it will end up being more expensive or if it will be cheaper to offer him a contract now, depending on what that contract is.

[kramnoj]

Braun can't even sniff free agency, his is 6 years away. He won't get arbitration until 2010 at the earliest. There just isn't any need to move right now.

It's not that there's a need. It's that with arbitration awards continually increasing, locking up a player for the right price could save the team money down the road. If the player chooses security over maxing out money then both parties can reach a happy compromise.

 

We all presumably care about the Brewers this year and for the near future. Hopefully, this will be Melvin's last baseball job. He has the responsibility to think 5 years down the road, and if he has a chance to save the 2012 Brewers some money by locking up Braun and Fielder, he should definitely explore it.

[sbrylski]

Honest question here:

 

If Braun goes through the entire process, goes through his arby years, then leaves...how much would we have paid him during that time? I realize it's a different amount and will be based on several factors during his arby years, but does anyone have a guess?

 

I just wonder if it will end up being more expensive or if it will be cheaper to offer him a contract now, depending on what that contract is.

 

I'll guess. Let's assume the worst and say he's a Super Two:

 

2008 - $600k

2009 - $800k

2010 - $8M

2011 - $12M

2012 - $16M

2013 - $20M

Pre-FA Total - $57.4M

 

And then it sounds like we are buying out a FA year, probably worth another $20M.

 

I would say the above is worst case money wise and about best case performance wise. So anything more than $60M, I'll say I'll be disappointed for sure.

[jaybird2001wi]

The latest Brewers' jsonline.com blog indicates that Ryan Braun's agent is in town to begin formal talks with Doug Melvin and owner Mark Attanasio about a long-term contract. From the way Tom Haudricourt wrote it, it sounds as if he is obviously more optimistic about Braun than Fielder given that Fielder is represented by Boras.

I would also believe that Fielder may want further compensation after being angered when the Crew decided to renew his contract to a "measly" 450k or something this offseason. So it may take more to make Prince happy. And with Ryan Howard's record arbitration raise this winter, I would anticipate Fielder may be worth somewhere between $11-15 million a year.

I would think Ryan Braun would get maybe at least $7 million next season with an "escalating" salary for every year afterwards, ending with a possible total of $12-13 million in the final year of the contract. Maybe even more. But the price may need to be upped since the Blue Jays signed Alexis Rios to just a shade over $10 million and the new contract of DBacks Chris Young. Keep in mind, Braun's stats his rookie year were much better than Young's, so I would be led to believe Braun will get substantially more than Young. Perhaps add some award bonuses into Braun's contract and also Fielder's.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think it may be more in line with what Tulowitski got, as I think he is on the same clock as Braun?

[endaround]

Nope Braun is a year behind Tulo because he didn't start the season in Milwaukee. There just is no reason to do this now.

[PlayerHader]

Braun may be a year behind arbitration wise...but he may not.

 

I would have no problem giving Braun 6-7 years for 34-43 mil right now.

[Team Canada]

I would think Ryan Braun would get maybe at least $7 million next season with an "escalating" salary for every year afterwards, ending with a possible total of $12-13 million in the final year of the contract.

 

Braun isn't even eligible for aribitration for at least a couple years. Why in the world would we give him $7M next year?

[Oldcity]

Unless this deal would buy out two or more free agency years, it really doesn't make sense.

[SoCalBrewfan]

But the price may need to be upped since the Blue Jays signed Alexis Rios to just a shade over $10 million and the new contract of DBacks Chris Young. Keep in mind, Braun's stats his rookie year were much better than Young's, so I would be led to believe Braun will get substantially more than Young.

 

A Braun contract isn't going to jump to $7M in the first year. He's got 0 years / 129 days service time, so he's in all likelihood a year behind Young or Tulo according to the rules. He could be a super two but both sides have a good read on that at this point, and it will be accounted for in the deal.

 

Young's only making $408K this year, which he began with 1 year/45 days service time. The contract looks like this, according to Cot's:

 

09:$1.75M, 10:$3.25M, 11:$5M, 12:$7M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$11M club option ($1.5M buyout)

 

Tulo, with 1 year / 33 days service time:

 

08:$0.75M, 09:$0.75M, 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$8.5M, 13:$10M, 14:$15M club option ($2M buyout)

 

 

So no way you're looking at $7M next year for Braun. The Tulo deal gives a good guide for what to expect...it's a discount compared to what you'd get going year-to-year, assuming a certain progression in player performance but of course involves risk on the club's part in case of injury or a career not as impressive as the early returns might indicate.

 

Prince has a lot more service time, 2 years / 68 days, and will be arby-eligible next year, so his deal would be a very different beast....it's really more like a free-agent deal in some ways, because he could go year-to-year in arby and make pretty good money without the extension. Howard of course is the guy we think of, given his big arby award, but he's got 2 years / 145 days service time. (You can see by comparing Braun's 129 days and Howard's 145 where the sweet spot is for super-two...Howard just made it IIRC and Braun is likely to be just short.) His contract does establish what Fielder will use as a benchmark, and means you're not going to save a lot on Fielder...he knows (or at least Boras does) that he could get $10M in arby next year, as Howard did, with increases in subsequent years until the final arby year is basically what a free agent would make.

 

While these deals might look scary at the outset, in retrospect they often tend to end up being modest...look at David Ortiz making $12.5M or even Pujols making $16M.

[uwisfan]

They have to buy out at least one FA year for Braun. Take away the arby years, which he will likely get $10M per and an FA year ($15ish) and you have good reason to sign, including giving the fans & players confidence that mgmt is building a winner.

[logan82]

jaybird2001wi wrote:

And with Ryan Howard's record arbitration raise this winter, I would anticipate Fielder may be worth somewhere between $11-15 million a year.

Why? I think there is a good chance the Phillies seriously lowballed Howard with a $7M offer and they might have had a chance to win the arbitration hearing if they hadn't been cheapskates. Fielder doesn't have Howard's credentials, ROTY/MVP, so I think they could win at $9M a year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I always point to Fielder/Howard comparisons as inaccurate - they're similar players, but the difference is Fielder's 4-5 years younger than Howard was during the arby process. Fielder would be able to compare himself to Howard's situation career-wise if the Brewers had kept Sexson around 3-4 more seasons and allowed Fielder to rot away in AAA, which is exactly what the Phillies did to Howard when they had Thome on their roster.

 

Fielder will be eligible for free agency much earlier than Howard was in his career timeline - Miguel Cabrera is the player that Fielder's dollar figures should be patterned after if he takes arbitration season-by-season.

[DHonks]

Fielder doesn't have Howard's credentials, ROTY/MVP, so I think they could win at $9M a year.

 

logan3825,

 

that's very poor usage of statistics, as it is totally improper to use subjective results as if they are objective. We know that ROY and MVP voting are very subjective data results

[MadScientist]

Fielder doesn't have Howard's credentials, ROTY/MVP, so I think they could win at $9M a year.

 

logan3825,

 

that's very poor usage of statistics, as it is totally improper to use subjective results as if they are objective. We know that ROY and MVP voting are very subjective data results

ROY and MVP factor significantly in the pre-arby pay scale. I think it reasonable that they would factor into the arby assessment as well. Sure the awards are subjective, but they are significant awards. Also since there is not just one statistic to look at, the choice of which stats to use, how much to weigh them and what dollar figure to associate with each is somewhat subjective.

 

 

 

[SoCalBrewfan]

Miguel Cabrera is the player that Fielder's dollar figures should be patterned after if he takes arbitration season-by-season.

 

I don't think Cabrera and Howard are that different as far as the process works...it tends to be based on past performance and comparable players in terms of recent performance, rather than on projections of future value. That's not to say that your point is invalid...going forward we can expect Howard to peak and decline long before Fielder does. It's just that the arby process itself doesn't seem to take that into account. A smart FA market would presumably consider the age of players, so Fielder could expect a premium over Howard's salaries in that respect...however the process (for better or worse) also rewards awards (say that three times fast), so Howard's ROY and MVP earned him some money that Fielder wouldn't necessarily get. This is where Boras makes his clients money...in a negotiation he'll insist that Fielder is not only comparable to Howard but better, despite the hardware, and extract a few more million dollars. He also knows that the market has escalated (10% or so) from year to year, so with a guy like Fielder you can probably maximize earnings by going year to year.

 

I certainly agree Cabrera's deal is probably what either guy (Howard or Fielder) would be using as a comp for a potential long-term deal. Here's what cot's says:

 

08:$11.3M, 09:$15M, 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M

 

He would be a FA after 09, so the six free agent years average $21M each, and the last two arby years ramp up to that. Eighteen to twenty million is sort of a benchmark number for a guy like this, but four years from now I don't think $20M will seem like a lot of money any more...assuming salaries continue to inflate as they did in the last few years.

 

So with Prince, presumably you'd try to lock him up for 09, 10, 11 (three arby years), then at least one FA year (12), and then have an option for the final year. So, maybe $9M, $12.5M, $16M for the arby years, $21M for 2012, $22M for 2013? That's $80+M for five years...how does that look? Prince would still be hitting the market in his prime, with a hefty amount of money in the bank and the opportunity to hit the jackpot in free agency. Then again, Boras would probably want a premium, for forgoing the opportunity for free agency, so that might not even get it done...how about 5/$90M? I just don't know.

[logan82]

I always point to Fielder/Howard comparisons as inaccurate - they're similar players, but the difference is Fielder's 4-5 years younger than Howard was during the arby process. Fielder would be able to compare himself to Howard's situation career-wise if the Brewers had kept Sexson around 3-4 more seasons and allowed Fielder to rot away in AAA, which is exactly what the Phillies did to Howard when they had Thome on their roster.

I could be mistaken, but I don't think they take age into consideration. Service time is much more important.

[fondybrewfan]

Some dude in the comments section of the Brewers Blog said the Brewers close on a 6 year $32MM deal with Braun

 

I think it is a complete hoax but whatever