7/1/07 Brewers (Bush) @ Cubs (Marquis): 1:20 PM CDT

[wOOgiE22]

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TV: FSN Wisconsin / WGN

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North Side Baseball

Inside the Ivy

 

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Beat the Cubs!!

[BrewCrewForever]

Come on boys, keep those bats going and lets take the series today!

[igor67]

Random point of note. While I advocated at the start of the series that it meant a lot more for the Cubs then us it still ends up being a rather important series. Baseballprospectus has a system for tracking teams playoff odds. Generally it takes the season results and then runs the season a whole bunch of times to see how often the various teams win. Before the start of the series the Crew had an 83% chance of making the playoffs. After the loss it went down to 80% which is a pretty big jump for one game in the middle of the season. Yesterday's slaughter though jumped up up to an 86% chance.

[strawbossisevil]

Let's get into their bullpen again. Their bullpen has to be absolutely gassed right now. They've already pitched 13 innings in this series. If we can be patient with Marquis and get to their bullpen early, we could really put up some big numbers.

[brewizard]

Quote:

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jumped up up to an 86% chance

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Then it sure would be nice to get out of town with a series win. I bet that percentage goes up even more...

 

And the Cubs bullpen should be shreaded right about now. This is great - especially since the Cubs have seven straight road games before the break. The more we can chew on their bullpen, the better it will be for our us.

[2hoophead]

Quote:

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Let's get into their bullpen again. Their bullpen has to be absolutely gassed right now. They've already pitched 13 innings in this series. If we can be patient with Marquis and get to their bullpen early, we could really put up some big numbers.

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I tend to believe that sweet Lou will let Marquis be the whipping boy this afternoon which will be, well, sweet, to behold!

[igor67]

I think it would only probably go up about 3% part of the reason for the Brewers big jump was that they finally got ahead in something called adjusted standings. Basically BP does an adjustment to the runs scored and runs allowed totals to try and account for schedule differences as well as pythagorean variations. With the blowout the Brewers finally had a better adjusted record then the Cubs, so the computer now predicts that on average going forward the Brewers will have a better record then the Cubs which has a pretty big impact on the number of times that the Cubs catch us

Of interest is that if you total up the non-Cubs teams in the division their collective playoff chance via either division champsionship or wildcard is 1.1%

[igor67]

Lou's going to be wondering who he can get to go 2-3 innings let alone 4-5 so even if they don't score the Brewers need to go with the good AB theory and see if they can rip off a huge 4th or 5th inning with a gases Marquis which isn't much different than a HR derby pitcher.

[TheCrew07]

The Brewers fouled off an astounding number of pitches in the first 2 innings in the first two games. Someone on northsidebaseball yesterday counted them up and it was low 30s on Friday and high 20s yesterday. I'd love it if the Brewers would take that patient approach again at the plate, but it will be tough to do. It's not like the Cub starting pitchers weren't throwing strikes. It's pretty huge to make the starter throw 2 innings worth of strikes that don't mean anything.

 

A series win would be very nice, and would even up the season series correct?

[hawing]

A series win would be very nice, and would even up the season series correct?

 

Yes. The Brewers' current record vs. the Cubs this season is 5-6. So far, each series has gone 2-1 in favor of the visitor; and I believe in the series before this weekend's, the visitor has won the first two games, then lost the finale.

 

I know I'm hoping for an even series by the end of the afternoon.

[jhart05]

Dominate again today boys.

 

Put these sCrubs back in their place and shut them up for awhile.

[brettac1]

I think it would only probably go up about 3% part of the reason for the Brewers big jump was that they finally got ahead in something called adjusted standings.

 

Precisely. They picked up 9 runs in their run differential.

[iluvlamp]

CRUSH! ENGULF! OVERPOWER!

[sgtcluels]

My buddy and his fiance are at the game today. They have good juju at Wrigley, so lets hope it continues.

[PeaveyFury]

Perhaps lost in all the excitement of the 1st/2nd place duel between us and the Cubs is that the Cardinals have quietly slipped to 10.5 back.....

[Trowekamp]

I think almost more important than chewing up the bullpens the last two games is to beat up their two young starters who have been excellent for them so far. Hopefully this starts them no a downward slide.

[igor67]

At risk of making an overreach, but how does STL come back with that kind of hole? In their rosiest scenario with that talent level they have last years .500 team. I think the best case you can hope for is that Royals team from about 5 years ago that played about 10 games over .500 for half a year before collapsing to reality. Jocketty is a great GM, but much like the Yankees the reliance on old players finally caught up with him and Larussa. Of course the yankees did it with old stars the Cards do it with old filler, but the effect is the same.

[litesrn]

I checked out northside this AM, and their thread about if they can even make the playoffs is almost as amusing as their IGT yesterday. And props to ender for his IGT contributions over there.

[wOOgiE22]

the igt is now up and running http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Trowekamp]

By the way I would just like to thank everybody who posts of not overloading the threads with redundant graphics.. the graphics on this site are usually relevant and funny while I was annoyed at northsidebaseball with all the graphics in people's signatures.. the guy doing the play by play posts was particularly annoying. nothing like the same picture of Zambrano 150 times in 1 IGT...

[jazzytrav]

Speaking of bullpens, ours looks so pretty with Capellan gone.

 

Marquis has plenty of experience being the whipping boy, so i could see it happening again. I feel kinda bad for him though if that ends up being the case. He probably thought those days were over when he went to the Cubs and wasn't the 5-6 starter.

[uwisfan]

I think if we have an Inman tracker (and I'm not sure we need one since he's a good year plus away), then we should definitely add Parra and maybe even Jeffres to the mix.

[TheBwaz]

Anybody watching on FSN know who the artist/title of that song they just played over season highlights? It sounded like Flogging Molly, but I can be sure.

[hawing]

Perhaps lost in all the excitement of the 1st/2nd place duel between us and the Cubs is that the Cardinals have quietly slipped to 10.5 back.

 

There's so much about that sentence which, in the part of my brain which is still hard wired for losing and disappointment...just does not compute. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TheBwaz]

Well, it turns out to be Dropkick Murphy's, frequently confused with Flogging Molly.

 

I shall have to buy it. It sounds like a good song to start a good drunken brawl too.