Is 2008 Yost's last shot? Latest: What are we doing? I am getting worried! (reply #212)

[jason21nl]

is that quote directly from Yost, or is that Haudricourts opinion? Maybe I'm just not reading it right. because after he says that, then he puts "When they throw at a player's head, you have to do something about it," said Yost. "Throwing at a guy's head can't be tolerated, under any circumstances. You can't let them get away with it." in quotes. I hate the way Yost doesn't man up and admit when he was wrong. Instead he'll put blame on everyone or everything else. Then he'll use a cop out and say that fans have no idea what we are talking about, or blow up when a reporter actually asks him a tough question. Sure he stuck up for his star player that night, but he pretty much told McClung we don't really care about you.

 

I would have loved to hear...They hit my player up around the head area, I hit theirs back. We don't back down to anyone, but I should have waited till next year to do something about it. Right now we have a division to compete for and I didn't put my players in the best position to win tonight. It won't happen again.

 

Now I know we'll never hear that but it would be nice

[RoseBowlMtg]

I wonder if Yost would have gotten so much blame this off season if:

 

With Pujols on first with one out: Turnbow comes in and strikes out the first guy: Which he did so two outs with Pujols on first and a 3-2 lead

 

The incredible matchup btwn Turnbow and Shumaker is next and Shumaker singles to left, Pujols to second: I remember at the time that with a one run lead having Pujols only get to first was alright.

 

Two down and the immortal Cairo is up: Turnbow walks him. Now is this Yost's fault or Turnbow's or Maddux or Castros? Or is this a strategy used by some hitters to work a count but not by many Brewers?

 

Bases loaded and it's Turnbow vs Kelly Stinnett. Stinnett gets walked which ties the game. Was that Yost's fault? All I can say is maybe they should have brought Shouse in one guy earlier but Stinnett is a rh and Taguci you want batting RH. Normally Turnbow vs Stinnett is a matchup you would like but Turnbow was imploding so this is Yost's fault? I blame the player who blew it. If Turnbow does his job hitting Pujols is a non-issue.

 

Shouse comes in and gives up a 2 run double to Taguci. This is Yost's fault? No it's the players since do you give credit to Yost every time Shouse comes thru? 5-3!

 

Miles hits a single to 3B that makes it 6-3. They have addressed the 3B fielding problem.

 

We give credit to Gwynn for getting that key hit vs Hoffman but no credit to Shumaker, Cairo, Stinnett, Taguci and Miles? The Brewers hopefully have addressed their bullpen so these weak hitters don't get 4 runs with two outs in the 8th inning. Yost's fault for hitting the only strong hitter of the group or Turnbow and Shouse for not getting the last out vs scrubs? Aren't we happy in a one run game if Pujols only gets to first and we take our chances vs the players they faced?

[adambr2]

Here is my problem with that:

 

No, I do not blame Yost for the fact that Turnbow is a head-case who often loses his mind with runners on base. That's Turnbow's fault. I blame Yost for putting runners on base for the pitcher who has proven he is a head-case who often loses his mind with runners on base. That's his fault.

 

And no, we are not happy if Pujol's only gets to 1st in a one run game with the bases empty, because 60% of the time, he should be recording an out in some way and heading back to the dugout. That's like saying I'm not happy if Prince only gets to 1st in a 1 run game, nobody out, and the bases empty. Of course I'm happy with it.

[TooLiveBrew]

No, I do not blame Yost for the fact that Turnbow is a head-case who often loses his mind with runners on base. That's Turnbow's fault. I blame Yost for putting runners on base for the pitcher who has proven he is a head-case who often loses his mind with runners on base. That's his fault.

 

Right on, adam. The 'strategery' Yost employed by plunking Pujols lowered our chances to win by something like 10%. That's a horrid decision, and it highlights what (imo) most of Yost's critics on here despise about him: lowering the chances of success. Sure, no manager is perfect, but there are plenty of guys that know how to play the odds. Heck, when the Brewers were a mathematical long-shot near the end of 2007, he infamously claimed, "The math is on our side." He doesn't get odds or how to play them imo, and operates on hunches and future scenarios that usually don't get played out.

[RoseBowlMtg]

And no, we are not happy if Pujol's only gets to 1st in a one run game with the bases empty, because 60% of the time, he should be recording an out in some way and heading back to the dugout.

I never said I wouldn't be happier to get an out and I am sure you use the 60% figure because you know Pujols is so good and that is what you figured. He actually had an obp of .438 last year so you were off just a bit but it was .561 at Miller Park so 56.1% of the time he ended up where he did. How did the rest of the players stack up?

 

Ludwick who K'd to make it two outs hit .350 at Miller Park and .267 with a runner on first

Shumaker who singled hit .321 with a runner on first and had a .420 obp at Miller Park

Cairo who walked was 0-3 @ Miller Park and had a .250 obp for the year with runners on first and second

Stinnett was 0-2 with the bases loaded for the year and 0-5 @ Miller Park

 

 

So Yost put a guy on who gets on 56.1% of the time at Miller Park and gets burned by Turnbow walking two players who didn't get a hit in those situations all year. You know Yost plays percentages so should he have let Pujols get on with a smash he would have gotten burned for pitching to him with Ludwick, Shumaker, Cairo and Stinnett coming up. If Turnbow didn't blow it Yost did it fine imo.

[endaround]

So it Fielder's fault for not stoping Yost, its Turnbow's fault and Shouse's fault for not bailing out Yost. I'm pretty sure its the bat boy's fault for not getting Yost the right seat cushion making him antsy

[Baldkin]

Its the decisions he made I have an issue with, not the results.

Just because something happens to work out, doesn't mean it was the correct decision, and because it doesn't work out, doesn't make it the wrong decision.

 

Managing is about putting your players in the best possible situation to succeed.

 

Was ordering McClung to plunk Pujols doing that?

[RoseBowlMtg]

endaround you are a smart fan so how much do you blame the manager for how the players perform? Shouse got rocked so that's Yost's fault? Do we give credit to him for all the times Shouse was successful? When Mench swings at a first pitch after a walk to the previous hitter is that Yost's fault or Melvin's for signing him and now he corrected that?

 

You know hitters are instructed to work the count and go after a hittable pitch so when they don't the blame goes to Yost and not the player? That's a tough racket when a successful hitter is a success 1/3rd the time making the other 2/3rds the blame to the manager and not the player?

 

The Cards had one player who is a stud in that lineup and he got on. If Yost is to blame for letting Turnbow come in with a runner on first, Turnbow didn't seem troubled since he struck out the first guy. The bullpen is deeper this year so we will see how he deals with Turnbows meltdowns with different choices. If so many people are down on Yost from this site are they down on Melvin for supporting them and Simmons for wanting to work with him? Are the fans here right or Melvin?

[Fatter than Joey]

Shouse got rocked so that's Yost's fault?

 

When he faces RHP -- absolutely.

[logan82]

Shouse got rocked so that's Yost's fault?

 

When he faces RHP -- absolutely.

Shouse was put in to face Edmonds who got pulled back for a righty.

[adambr2]

I respectfully think you're missing a few points here.

 

#1, using splits at Miller Park in 2007 is not a good split to use. That's an extremely small sample size. We can't assume that Pujols gets on base 56.1% of the time just because he did in a small handful of AB's at Miller Park last year. We can assume he gets on base about 42% of the time, his career average. Miller Park is not a pitcher friendly or hitter friendly park, it is fairly neutral. So it's fair to use career stats here. Small sample sizes are what allows Tony Gwynn Jr. to be hitting over .400 in late April despite not actually being a .400 hitter.

 

Secondly, if you cannot evaluate a manager on how his players perform, you cannot evaluate a manager. Since Yost won't be taking the field anytime soon on the team's behalf, you can always claim the player screwed up, not Yost. Is there a purpose to the manager if he cannot be held accountable for his player's actions? If Yost brings Bush in to pinch hit in the 9th inning of a 1 run game, he probably won't come through. I could easily say, "Not Ned's fault that Bush couldn't come through." After all, I can't blame the manager for how the player's perform. Except it's not that simple. The manager needs to put his players in a situation to succeed.

 

It's all about situations, like I mentioned with the Turnbow example, who had proven time and time again that he performed poorly in his given situation. If Shouse comes in with 2 outs and the bases loaded in the 7th to retire a lefty, and that lefty spanks a 3 run double, you bet that's on Shouse. If Shouse comes in with 2 outs in the 7th to face a righty who hits .330 against LHP, and he spanks a 3 run double, I think where the responsibility lies on Yost is fairly obvious.

[brewjihad]

Things started to turn ugly for Yost and his club during the penultimate weekend of the season in Atlanta. The Brewers experienced a crushing defeat on Saturday after closer Francisco Cordero - who had allowed only one home run all season - surrendered a game-tying blast to seldom-used Scott Thorman with two outs in the bottom of the 10th inning.

That line is from the Journal-Sentinel article.

 

In that game, Ned double-switched Counsell in as a defensive replacement. It was a great game; it went to extra innings and Corey Hart hit a solo homer to give the Brewers a lead in the tenth. Then, with one out, Counsell was up with runners at first and third. There were several righthanders available, including Kevin Mench, to go against Royce Ring. Ned stuck with Counsell and attempted to sacrifice the runner to second base. He fouled three straight bunt attempts and struck out.

 

That's just another example of the incompetence I've seen at times. Even if he had to stick with Counsell, the decision to have him bunting with two strikes was ridiculous.

 

To answer the question, 2007 should have been Ned's last shot. I hope he changes things this year, and I'll be rooting for him, but I'm not optimistic.

[RoseBowlMtg]

I respectfully think you're missing a few points here.

 

#1, using splits at Miller Park in 2007 is not a good split to use. That's an extremely small sample size. We can't assume that Pujols gets on base 56.1% of the time just because he did in a small handful of AB's at Miller Park last year.

 

"Not Ned's fault that Bush couldn't come through." After all, I can't blame the manager for how the player's perform. Except it's not that simple. The manager needs to put his players in a situation to succeed.

 

It's all about situations, like I mentioned with the Turnbow example, who had proven time and time again that he performed poorly in his given situation. If Shouse comes in with 2 outs and the bases loaded in the 7th to retire a lefty, and that lefty spanks a 3 run double, you bet that's on Shouse. If Shouse comes in with 2 outs in the 7th to face a righty who hits .330 against LHP, and he spanks a 3 run double, I think where the responsibility lies on Yost is fairly obvious.

 

Good points adambr2. First off you are correct about Pujols using 56.1% is excessive. I think we can all agree that Pujols is the most feared amongst the next 5 hitters.

 

Some Pujols career stats:

 

with no one on: .406 obp

with one out: .418 obp

late and close: .439 obp

8th inning: .455 obp

career at Miller Park: .445

 

Ludwick, Shumaker, Cairo, Stinnett, Taguchi and Miles don't elicit that fear. How many times do many managers say you can't let a certain player beat you? They walk Bonds and take their chances vs the lesser players. If Pujols cranks one to tie the game the same folks ripping Yost here would rip him for pitching to Pujols with these players coming up next.

 

Turnbow hadn't pitched in 4 days and struck out Ludwick. He was fading and tired but 4 days rest it was more mental I believe. I mentioned earlier my belief Melvin has taken care of Turnbow's over use and this is from Turnbow: "Guys won't get overworked as much. At times, I had trouble even lifitng my arm and throwing a ball. That's why my command got worse as the season went on." Wow what a statement! The revamped bullpen will help Turnbow's arm and control which will make Yost a better manager.

 

I understand your extreme Shouse scenario but Yost played by the book here. Turnbow vs Ludwick, Shumaker, Cairo and Stinnett and avoiding Pujols is by the book not extreme. Yost has been burned in the past for pitching to studs saying that they take on all comers so he puts a stud hitter on and gets it too. That is a tough position to be in. Is it different if he IBB Pujols instead of hitting him?

 

How many fans are going to be booing Turnbow this year at the beginning with his fresh arm?

How many fans are going to be questioning every Yost move when moves work a third of the time? If the move doesn't work why does it mean the other way would have worked?

[endaround]

Turnbow didn't go on the mound thinking "You know what, why don't I make it really hard for us to win today!" Yost did think "Sure it may make much more difficult for us to win, but I have to show I'm a man baby!"

[Ennder]

That's just another example of the incompetence I've seen at times. Even if he had to stick with Counsell, the decision to have him bunting with two strikes was ridiculous

 

He did the same thing with JJ Hardy earlier that week too, I remember being irate about that.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Then, with one out, Counsell was up with runners at first and third. There were several righthanders available, including Kevin Mench, to go against Royce Ring. Ned stuck with Counsell and attempted to sacrifice the runner to second base. He fouled three straight bunt attempts and struck out.

 

That's just another example of the incompetence I've seen at times. Even if he had to stick with Counsell, the decision to have him bunting with two strikes was ridiculous.

That was a great game where Jeff Suppan actually had a sacrafice bunt. So when that happened and they didn't use Mench was that Yost's fault? Mench had 17 AB's the last month and was 0-5 the last two weeks of the season. He was being fazed out. With runners on first and third with one out how do you know Counsell was sent up to sacrafice? Could Counsell been bunting for a base hit? Could Counsell be trying to catch them off guard with a bunt with two strikes? Could Counsell think that was his best chance to get the runner in from third by bunting? Good thinking or not but why is that on Yost and not Counsell? Mench wasn't playing and Suppan had already been used. BTW Mench had 0 sacrafices all year. Does Yost get blamed for Weeks striking out next since he hit .188 with risp?

 

I just think criticism and credit should go to the players. Yost thought Counsell could put the ball in play and Mench didn't play much after he swung at the first pitch when Jenkins was available to PH.

 

Bring on the new year with fresh arms, a stocked bullpen and young hitters maturing.

 

That brings up another question: Melvin said way too many times are starters were at 100 pitches in the fifth inning which overloaded the bullpen. I'm curious if that is so important how many times did our hitters get the opposing pitcher at 100 pitches in the 5th inning. I know they stress working the count but when players don't where should that blame go?

[adambr2]

That's just another example of the incompetence I've seen at times. Even if he had to stick with Counsell, the decision to have him bunting with two strikes was ridiculous

 

He did the same thing with JJ Hardy earlier that week too, I remember being irate about that.

 

I remember that whole week. The reason that he did that, it might have been in the same week, even, is that he did it earlier with a position player, and it actually worked, they put it in play with 2 strikes. Everyone was surprised, and Ned sat there with a "I'm such a genius" smirk on his face in the dugout.

 

Statistically, bunting with 2 strikes with anyone but the pitcher is pretty much always an awful idea, but I was willing to give him a pass based on the fact that it at least worked.

 

Until that made him decide that it because it worked once, so heck, it's a good idea. That was the point where most sensible, logic-using MLB managers can realize, "Hey, I went against the grain, gambled, and it worked. It wasn't conventional, but I caught them off guard. No sense making a habit of it, though." That's sensible logic. Ned's logic was, "It worked for me before, so by God, it'll work again."

 

Well, the law of averages caught up with him.

 

And RoseBowl, I don't really understand where Jeff Suppan having a sacrifice bunt earlier in the game ties into all this. Pitchers have sacrifice bunts all the time because they're bunting in every sacrifice situation, and they're the only ones that you can have bunting with 2 strikes without looking foolish.

 

In the example of Turnbow, we have a pitcher that we've had the entire year to see what his best situations are. He excels when he starts an inning. If you bring him in during an inning, with inherited runners, he stinks up the joint. Plain and simple, Yost knew this, decided to roll the dice, and gambled that this wouldn't happen this time, knowing that he'd be grilled for it if it didn't work, and rightfully so. Well, it didn't work. Yost knew the risk he was taking. He brings up splits and stats all the time, I would hope he knew the situation.

I respect your position about the players being accountable for their own performances, I just don't entirely agree with it. I think the players should be accountable for their own performances if they are put in positions to be successful. That's the job of the manager, to put them in a position to succeed. If he doesn't do that, you don't really need a manager, you may as well just have a guy who sets lineups every day.

[RoseBowlMtg]

And RoseBowl, I don't really understand where Jeff Suppan having a sacrifice bunt earlier in the game ties into all this. Pitchers have sacrifice bunts all the time because they're bunting in every sacrifice situation, and they're the only ones that you can have bunting with 2 strikes without looking foolish.

 

In the example of Turnbow, we have a pitcher that we've had the entire year to see what his best situations are. He excels when he starts an inning. If you bring him in during an inning, with inherited runners, he stinks up the joint. Plain and simple, Yost knew this, decided to roll the dice, and gambled that this wouldn't happen this time, knowing that he'd be grilled for it if it didn't work, and rightfully so. Well, it didn't work. Yost knew the risk he was taking. He brings up splits and stats all the time, I would hope he knew the situation.

 

I respect your position about the players being accountable for their own performances, I just don't entirely agree with it. I think the players should be accountable for their own performances if they are put in positions to be successful. That's the job of the manager, to put them in a position to succeed. If he doesn't do that, you don't really need a manager, you may as well just have a guy who sets lineups every day.

I mentioned the Suppan sacraficing since they said so many hitters were available instead of Counsell. Yovanni started that game and Suppan was used as a PH, that is the difference where he put down the bunt successfully on the first pitch.

 

As for how Turnbow does when he doesn't start the inning I can't speak to since how many times did it happen? If Turnbow is rattled for coming in then is the thinking because he wasn't prepared? Turnbow was warming up and remained warming up when Pujols got plunked. If the plan was to plunk Pujols did you want your setup man to do it or a less valuable pitcher? What if Turnbow did plunk Pujols then the screaming is that you wasted your setup man. Right or wrong to plunk Pujols Yost didn't waste Turnbow and he was ready to perform when he came in evident by striking out the first guy he faced. Stat heads what is Turnbow's history when he strikes out the first guy and only needs one more out with a guy on first? I like the odds of Turnbow vs Ludwick, Shumaker, Cairo and Stinnett and if the odds are good then Yost put him in a good position to achieve. He didn't which as Turnbow says he lost his command because of over-use. My hope is Yost is not afraid to pitch Turnbow vs those 4 Cards. That was a plus situation Turnbow blew.

 

 

(cleaned up code --1992)

[adambr2]

I certainly wasn't arguing to plunk Pujols with Turnbow. My original point was that we shouldn't have plunked him at on. I understand Pujols is dangerous, but the bases are empty. You're not putting anyone on for free with the bases empty. Especially in a 1 run game.

 

Statistically, if you look at Turnbow's BAA when he starts an inning vs. when he doesn't, there really isn't any comparison. When I have more time, I'll dig up the stats on it.

 

I don't think Turnbow's preparation really had anything to do with it. Turnbow entering a game with 1 on and nobody out in the 8th is a bad odds situation for him. That's been proven time and time again. Even aganist Ludwick, Shumaker, Cairo, and Stinnett. It's not a favorable situation for him. That's not saying that he's never got the job done in that situation, but it's well documented that such a situation is not putting him in a position to succeed.

 

Using Turnbow's performance after striking out the first guy with a runner on first is really skewing things. That's not the original situation Yost put him in, and that wasn't the entire task -- that was 1/3rd of the task. I'm sure the odds went up, but it still wasn't a good situation for him, and if you watched Turnbow last year, I'm sure you saw more than 1 time when he struck a guy out in an inning, only to completely melt down later that inning. The fact that he struck out the first guy wasn't evidence of it being a good decision, any more than the fact that he melted down later was evidence that it was a bad decision. It was a bad decision because it had been proven many times in the past that Turnbow does badly in those situations. Therefore there is historical performances to use in making future decisions.

 

If Turnbow is a guy who strands inherited runners at a sizzling rate and does well with men on, then it's a good decision, even if he melts down. That still leaves the matter of the free runner that Yost put on 1st, but at least he would have been going with a guy that does well in a given situation rather than just rolling the dice and crossing his fingers. I don't base my opinion that it was a bad decision on the fact that it didn't work. I base it on the fact that Yost knew that it didn't work very much in the past.

[RoseBowlMtg]

So did it not work because Turnbow is incapable of achieving the goal? Early this year with Turnbow's arm healthy (go back and read Turnbow's take on the end of last year in today's JS) there will be too many fans booing Turnbow to the detriment of this team. Should Yost have known Turnbow was done, it was his last game of the year, we would have been better off but I wonder what the odds are of getting Shumaker, Cairo, and Stinnett out. How many times have those three gotten on in a row? If it was never, since they are all pretty weak hitters then isn't the percentage there that Turnbow was put into a good situation?

 

We will see how the rested Turnbow performs this year which will be intersesting seeing how the fans treat him. If he fails it's Yost's fault and if he succeeds Turnbow is back! It's not easy being a manager on this board.

[brewjihad]

With runners on first and third with one out how do you know Counsell was sent up to sacrafice? Could Counsell been bunting for a base hit? Could Counsell be trying to catch them off guard with a bunt with two strikes? Could Counsell think that was his best chance to get the runner in from third by bunting? Good thinking or not but why is that on Yost and not Counsell? Mench wasn't playing and Suppan had already been used. BTW Mench had 0 sacrafices all year.

Counsell bunted three consecutive times, and I think he took at least one pitch in there as well. To argue that he was trying to use the element of surprise is a bit foolish.

 

Counsell probably was trying to bunt for a hit, because a sacrifice wouldn't have helped matters much there- it would have put runners on second and third with two outs.

 

The way I looked at that situation was: What is the best way to get the runner in from third? Yes, Kevin Mench was slumping then. But I still think that Mench had better odds of hitting a fly ball and getting a second run- one that would have changed the game, and maybe the season- than Counsell did bunting.

 

That was a clueless decision, one of many that hurt the Brewers during the last month.

[brains and braun]

In my mind, this was an inexcusable blunder by Yost, and we shouldn't muddy the waters by blaming Turnbow or Fielder or anyone else. Bottom line, you don't give a guy a free ride in that situation. You never want to put the leadoff man on, but you really don't want to bean him as part of a vendetta with a one-run deficit in the tightest possible playoff race. This move speaks volumes to me about Nedly, and he almost deserves to get canned for it alone. Even more troubling, however, is that he can't see that he's done anything wrong. In fact, it's our fault, because we don't have the insight into the game that he has. Please. Get rid of this doofus and replace him with Simmons ASAP. Maybe Ned can find a spot in Dale Jr.s' pit crew.

[logan82]

Just to clear things up a bit, Pujols was hit with one out. We were down by 3-2 at that point. So Pujols ended up on 1B with one out with the Brewers down 3-2.

[Fatter than Joey]

Maybe Ned can find a spot in Dale Jr.s' pit crew.

 

I'm not a big fan of NASCAR, but I am not interested in seeing people die.

[brewjihad]

I'm not a big fan of NASCAR, but I am not interested in seeing people die.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif