Is 2008 Yost's last shot? Latest: What are we doing? I am getting worried! (reply #212)

[1992casey]

It looks to me that the guy with the highest VORP (Jenkins) got far and away the most PA's.

That's because VORP is a counting stat. As a player's plate appearances go up, his VORP will likely go up... or maybe I should say it had better go up.

 

[brewjihad]

I guess I am not following what you are trying to say here

 

I think the point is that Gwynn had a VORP of basically 0 last year, and he's the one that's getting the at-bats this year over Gross. It wasn't really trying to make a point about last year's team, but about this year's team. Just to clear that up.

[endaround]

The point is Gwynn got PAs over Gross. Mench got plate appearance over Gross, Jenkins and Hart (keep in mind Mench got more plate appearances vs RHP then LHP)

[MJLiverock]

I guess I looked at the whopping 32 AB's for Gwynn after the All Star break and didn't really see it as getting AB's over any of those guys. Gwynn's AB's came early in the year when he was swinging a better bat that Gross, especially during April/May when most of the AB's came.

 

Gwynn Pre-All star break; .297/.354/.341

Gross Pre All Star break; .200/.330/.363

 

In May alone Gwynn got 50 of his 91 1st half AB's and put up a .320/.370/.400 line verus Gross's May of 31 AB's putting up a .194/.306/.452 line.

 

If anything using Gwynn over Gross during that time was the right thing to do.

 

It seems like the Gross love on here likes to forget about a lot of the bad stretches of Gross's playing time. Just like Gwynn he is what he is, a 4th or 5th outfielder. Gross can't hit LH pitching and plays average to below average defense, Gwynn has no power and plays slightly above average defense.

[Fatter than Joey]

Gwynn Pre-All star break; .297/.354/.341

Gross Pre All Star break; .200/.330/.363

 

If you look at the OPS -- they seem pretty even.

 

Gross can't hit LH pitching

 

In all fairness neither can TGJ -- he can't really hit either arm. I have no problem with Gwynn getting some ABs against LHP when Gross is playing --but I think Gross is always the better day to day option.

[logan82]

Fatter than Joey wrote:

In all fairness neither can TGJ -- he can't really hit either arm. I have no problem with Gwynn getting some ABs against LHP when Gross is playing --but I think Gross is always the better day to day option.

You mean RHP right? Neither should really bat against LHP.

[olliegjw]

Gwynn Pre-All star break; .297/.354/.341

Gross Pre All Star break; .200/.330/.363

 

If you look at the OPS -- they seem pretty even.

The total OPS may be about even, but the components are not. OBP is a much more valuable component to OPS. I believe it is about 40% more valuable if I remember the stats that Russ posted a while back. On top of that, of Gwynn's higher OBP, he has a much higher average. Just as OBP is more valuable than slugging in OPS, I would guess (haven't seen any studies on it) that given equal OBP's, that the higher average would be more valuable.

 

So, given these two stat lines, I would choose Gwynn's every day of the week.

[Fatter than Joey]

I disagree ollie -- especially in the framework of a small sample. -- If these lines were for 500 ABs I might be inclined to agree with you, but for the amount of ABs we are dealing with I really (and respectfully) see things differently.

 

1.) They have OPB in the same neighborhood, i.e. they are in the same tax bracket. Gwynn's OBP is driven by hits, Gross's driven by walks.

 

2.) Gross, obviously has some power, Gwynn has none.

 

3.) If Gwynn goes 0-4 in a game there is almost 0 chance he reached base. If Gross goes 0-4 he would be more likely to get on base with a walk. That is to say that hit rates fluctuate wildly, BB rates not so much. If Gwynn can't dribble a grounder through the IF he is screwed, if TGJ is in a slump he is not getting on base. Gross could yank one out of the park, or draw a walk even in a slump.

 

I understand where you are coming from, and I think it is a valid argument -- but I'd take Gross..

[olliegjw]

I know what you're saying FTJ, but I was speaking strictly on those stat lines, not taking sample sizes into effect.

 

3.) If Gwynn goes 0-4 in a game there is almost 0 chance he reached base. If Gross goes 0-4 he would be more likely to get on base with a walk. That is to say that hit rates fluctuate wildly, BB rates not so much. If Gwynn can't dribble a grounder through the IF he is screwed, if TGJ is in a slump he is not getting on base. Gross could yank one out of the park, or draw a walk even in a slump.

 

0-4 is 0-4 regardless of who does it. 0-3 with a walk would be better than 0-4. That said, walks don't score runners from 2nd or 3rd, hits do. Walks don't move runners from 1st to 3rd, hits do. That is why I believe BA is more important in OBP. Given similar OBP's and OPS's, I will take the one with the higher BA.

[Fatter than Joey]

I guess the way I look at it --

 

If I had to chose between a hit and a walk -- I'd take the hit.

 

But if I have to chose between a hitter who's OBP is hit driven, or one which has a OBP that is BB driven -- for one game -- I'd probably see the guy who can draw walks less risky than the guy who needs to get a hit to get on base.

 

EDIT: -- If you have a player that has demonstrated that they can hit at a .297 over hundreds of ABs, I'd be OK with agreeing with you -- but when we are talking about pre-AS break ABs for a 4th and 5th OFer -- I think there is a built in concern for fluctuation -- which makes the BB guy seem like a better gamble to me.

 

I don't think we really disagree that terribly much.

[trwi7]

At present, he is leaning toward Hall batting fifth.

Asked what might be the deciding factor, Yost said, "Just consistency and the hot bat. They're both power guys. They've got some speed, a little bit, to set up some (running) opportunities. You just pick one."

He better not let Hall run. He's a horrible baserunner.

[logan82]

Was anyone else a little bothered when Yost came out recently and stated that they just didn't have the talent to win in 2005? Not sure who else heard that, but it bothered me for a couple reasons....

Not really. What's the difference between winning 81 and 85 games? Unless that difference in wins is going to push you into the post season it makes little difference.

[endaround]

At present, he is leaning toward Hall batting fifth.

Asked what might be the deciding factor, Yost said, "Just consistency and the hot bat. They're both power guys. They've got some speed, a little bit, to set up some (running) opportunities. You just pick one."

He better not let Hall run. He's a horrible baserunner.

So is Yost blowing smoke or is he an idiot? Hart is the best basestealer on the team with Weeks a close 2nd.

 

[Gopher74]

And I really doubt anyone is going to change how they try to get Cameron out after 10 years no matter who is hitting behind him

You don't think that maybe having Prince behind Cameron is going to result in better pitches to hit? I certainly do.

[endaround]

No I don't think it will.

[logan82]

And I really doubt anyone is going to change how they try to get Cameron out after 10 years no matter who is hitting behind him

You don't think that maybe having Prince behind Cameron is going to result in better pitches to hit? I certainly do.

I think he might get one more fastball every few games hitting ahead of Prince.

[Gopher74]

I think he might get one more fastball every few games hitting ahead of Prince.

Well, we'll see. It's possible that I'm wrong as there is a first for everything, but I have to think that rather than nibble and throw off-speed, especially when they're behind in the count, pitchers are going to look ahead at that lineup with Prince/Braun and Hart coming up and challenge Cameron a bit more rather than risk putting him on in front of those guys.

 

I guess I just look at what Gross/Hardy and Braun all did hitting in front of Prince last year, and feel that Cameron is that tier of player who truly benefits from protection.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Protection in the lineup is an overrated thing that announcers like Bill Schroeder like to talk about when they have nothing else to say. Each hitter has a scouting report and pitchers try to execute the best way to get them out. It doesn't matter who is behind them unless first base is open or something in a close game.

[Gopher74]

Protection in the lineup is an overrated thing that announcers like Bill Schroeder like to talk about when they have nothing else to say. Each hitter has a scouting report and pitchers try to execute the best way to get them out. It doesn't matter who is behind them unless first base is open or something in a close game.

It doesn't matter who is behind them?

So for a hypothetical. A pitchers falls behind 3-1 on Cameron and Khalil Greene is hitting behind him. You don't think the chances that he just puts him on and goes after Green are better than if Prince Fielder is behind him? I don't think that's the case at all.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So for a hypothetical. A pitchers falls behind 3-1 on Cameron and Khalil Greene is hitting behind him. You don't think the chances that he just puts him on and goes after Green are better than if Prince Fielder is behind him? I don't think that's the case at all.

The chances are better, yes, but the pitcher is still going to try to locate his pitch to get the batter out. He might get a few more fastballs as previously said, but it's not as big of a thing as people like to think.

[Gopher74]

The chances are better, yes, but the pitcher is still going to try to locate his pitch to get the batter out. He might get a few more fastballs as previously said, but it's not as big of a thing as people like to think.

Well of course he's still going to try to locate, but I don't see a pitcher trying to be as fine on 3-1 or 2-0 with Cameron for fear of walking him and putting someone on in front of Prince. I don't think protection matters a whole lot for the Princes, Braun's, Pujols' or the world, but I think it does for the guys they protect. Look at Ray Durham's 26 HR's in front of Bonds a couple years ago and tell me that protection doesn't matterhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

 

Obviously that's just one example to the extreme, but I think it's going to have a large impact on Cameron just like it did on Gross last year(for the short time he hit in front of Prince).

 

 

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http://www.brewerfan.net/images/icons/lock.gifLocked and superseded by a new designated Yost thread:

 

Rotoworld has a memo to Yost

 

--1992casey

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