Is 2008 Yost's last shot? Latest: What are we doing? I am getting worried! (reply #212)

[valpocrewsader]

Agree on Villy and some of the other stuff, but if you were being sarstic when commenting on Mike Cameron being a guy who could work the count (implying he couldn't), that doesn't make sense to me. Aren't Cameron's career numbers in pitches per PA among the highest on the team?

[Blazer25]

My problems batting Mike Cameron second have to do with Ned's move of Braun to 4 and Prince to 3 for the stolen base angle.

 

The idea that Braun should bat behind Prince so he can utilize his speed and steal bases if fine I guess.

 

What I don't get is having our best base runner in Mike Cameron batting in front of Prince. Does that now negate Cameron's speed? Is it OK for Cameron to run in front of Prince but not Braun?

 

I don't get it.

 

Doesn't jive to me.

[endaround]

Lots of things don't jive. Like worrying about stolen bases on a team that could easily lead the national league in home runs. Giving Gwynn 300 PAs. Putting Vargas in the rotation. Hitting your only two left handers back to back to start the season. Hitting Hall ahead of Hart.

[adambr2]

Was anyone else a little bothered when Yost came out recently and stated that they just didn't have the talent to win in 2005? Not sure who else heard that, but it bothered me for a couple reasons....

 

1 - He stated in 2005 that they did have the tools to win that year. Now I realize he may have just been stating the company line, but don't say that and then a couple years later say it wasn't actually true. That's stupid.

 

2 - They did have the talent to win in 2005. Maybe not the talent to win the division, but at least enough talent to be the .500 team that they were and maybe better. With Turnbow as one of the elite closers in the NL that year, you could argue that they were as good as the '07 Diamondbacks.

 

3 - I don't really think a manager should really be making statements like that. It sounds like a cop-out. I'm sure he didn't mean it that way, but shrugging and saying "not enough talent" really sounds like a lack of accountability for your team, even when the 2005 team was probably about right where they should have been.

[endaround]

They had enough talent to win that year. And if they didn't insist on having Weeks play through an injury they would likely have done so. They actually had a positive run differential so they should have had a winning record.

[jlau20]

The whole stolen bases thing reminds me of that Earl Weaver clip that Brian (I think) posted in the Funniest Youtube Videos thread. Basically I think no matter how much it's talked about, we aren't going to be running anymore than last year, and we'll still hit a ton of home runs.

[Tbadder]

IMO Braun has to hit 2nd. How many times during the course of the season is Fielder going to see 2 men on base when he comes up. I put some stiff 3rd and put Prince and Hart. Let Hart run wild. i suspect he's better than braun in that respect anyways.

[adambr2]

Well, I thought they had the talent to win in '05 too (they had a good top 3 in the rotation with Sheets, DD, and Cappy, decent lineup, good bullpen and great closer). Lee was in his prime.

 

But I guess whether or not they did, I don't really feel that is for Yost to say, at least not publicly. It sure seemed like he thought there was enough talent on the '05 team to win at the time.

[logan82]

IMO Braun has to hit 2nd. How many times during the course of the season is Fielder going to see 2 men on base when he comes up. I put some stiff 3rd and put Prince and Hart. Let Hart run wild. i suspect he's better than braun in that respect anyways.

Braun #2 was in the lineup thread a few weeks back. I think Fielder or Braun should hit #2, but I doubt that happens.

[TooLiveBrew]

My resolutions for the 2008 season are to give Ned a break... and to have hope for Turnbow.

[Gopher74]

It's clear our management doesn't have a clue. Our fans always seem to have a better understanding of our players than the guys who are paid to be experts

 

Maybe this is part of the problem. That you honestly believe this. Man, can we PLEASE at least wait until the season starts before the non-stop whining(I'd like to use a different word here) starts up again?

We all knew that Chad Moeller was awful, and yet Ned Yost would never pinch hit for him when the game was on the line.

 

Most managers don't PH for their catcher leaving them with only one. This is something that some fans that know more than experts don't readily acknowledge.

Now, it's the same thing with the whole Villanueva situation.

 

The exact reason I've argued the entire time that we should wait until a decision is made rather than going by what bloggers have to say about it.

 

 

When we all are watching the Cubs play in October, are we supposed to look back and say "Yippee, we missed the playoffs for the 26th year in a row, but hey, at least we have great "depth" in our rotation"?

 

There's no gun to your head. Beauty of living here, you can root for whoever you want. They sell Cubs shirts in Milwaukee as well.

[endaround]

Actually Yost used to always pinch hit for his catcher. He just stopped for some reason

[billyhallfan]

I'm sorry, but I hate the idea of batting Fielder 2nd, honestly, I don't understand why there needs to be a change at all, last year when Braun and Fielder were 3 & 4, they raked. Then Ned decided to switch them, and they stopped hitting, he switched them back, and all of a sudden they went on a little run. I m just in the camp that believes "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." There is enough talent on this team to win a lot of games, and the players are talented enough to just go out an do it. I wish our manager would just keep a lineup, throw it out there, and let them play. We don't need to worry about speed, it is stupid, in my opinion, to keep trying to play small ball, when offense isn't the reason why the club is losing.

[JoeHova]

I like the way this team looks this season. My only real concerns are that Yost will be playing Gwynn and Kapler way too much at the expense of Gross (and maybe Braun later in the year), and the fact that people (including Ned) seem to think Kendall catching 140 games is a good thing.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Kendall have an option that vests if he gets that many appearances? I think there is about a .01% chance that Kendall coming back as the starter in 2009 would be good for the Brewers, so they should be trying to avoid having that option vest at pretty much all costs.

 

I don't mind having Kendall for one year, but Angel Salome already projects to have the same OPS as Kendall (albeit, more SLG than OBP, so not as valuable), and Rottino projects even better. Both guys still need work on their defense but Kendall is eminently replacable and his 2009 money could be better used elsewhere (like trying to keep Sheets if he's healthy).

 

Similarly, Gross projects to have an OPS 130 points higher than Gwynn this year. Sure Gwynn is probably a better defender, but Gross isn't bad.

[Fatter than Joey]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Kendall have an option that vests if he gets that many appearances?

 

Yeah -- It's pretty likely he will be on the payroll in 2009... given that we don't have a strong #2, and Kendall can make 140+ starts a year easily.

 

" Performance bonuses could tack on an additional $1 million if he makes at least 130 starts, and his contract includes a guaranteed option for 2009 if he starts 110 games."

[endaround]

Want to know why the Cubs were able to pull ahead of the Brwers last year? Check out who got manager decided PAs:

 

Jenkins 464 PAs 8.9 VORP

Gross 210 PAs 2.9 VORP

Mench 308 PAs 2.6 VORP

Gwynn 135 PAs 0.1 VORP

 

And Gwynn is set for 300 PAs this season.

[Fatter than Joey]

Gwynn batting 2nd is like Estrada batting 5th.

[Robideaux]

I don't think that Gwynn is very good, but if he can put up a stat line like he did in AAA in 2006 (.300/.360/.396) this season, with his defense he is not a total 0. The thing that scares me is that .300 batting average might confuse people in the organization into thinking that he is a good hitter and deserving of more PT.

[endaround]

That really is my biggest fear, because it happened last season. After Gwynn had a big series against the Mets he kept on getting put in the lineup. I could easily see Gwynn hitting .300/.330/.360 for a month and suddenly Braun get DS out for defensive reasons or Cameron gets a day off every week.

[JoeHova]

The problem is that Gwynn's chances of hitting .360/.400 over an extended period in MLB are (imo) basically nil. He projects about as well as Jason Kendall, or in other words, terribly.

 

The average CF had an OPS of about .750 last season. Gwynn projects at .650. No way does his defense (even if you believe he is as good as some people say) make up for that.

 

 

edit: OTOH, John Dewan has Gwynn as one of his 24 potential breakout players based on spring stats vs. career numbers. Counsell and Cameron are on the list too.

[Gopher74]

I like the way this team looks this season. My only real concerns are that Yost will be playing Gwynn and Kapler way too much at the expense of Gross (and maybe Braun later in the year), and the fact that people (including Ned) seem to think Kendall catching 140 games is a good thing.

I sincerely doubt that Gabe Kapler or Tony Gwynn Jr will ever start a game for Braun this year, and I doubt Braun, if healthy is out of the lineup for more than 3 or 4 games at most.

 

[Gopher74]

I'm sorry, but I hate the idea of batting Fielder 2nd, honestly, I don't understand why there needs to be a change at all, last year when Braun and Fielder were 3 & 4, they raked. Then Ned decided to switch them, and they stopped hitting, he switched them back, and all of a sudden they went on a little run. I m just in the camp that believes "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

The Brewers went on a run last year when Yost made the switch. Maybe a "run" isn't the right way to put it, but they broke out a little bit after when Yost made the switch. Gross got white hot hitting in front of Prince.

 

Not to mention, things didn't work great last year, we only won 83 games. And second, the numbers of Braun and Prince will be important, however the overall production is more important, and I think that Cameron is going to benefit greatly hitting in front of Prince as he's a very good fastball hitter, and he'll see a lot in the 2 hole.

 

[endaround]

And I really doubt anyone is going to change how they try to get Cameron out after 10 years no matter who is hitting behind him

[JoeHova]

I like the way this team looks this season. My only real concerns are that Yost will be playing Gwynn and Kapler way too much at the expense of Gross (and maybe Braun later in the year), and the fact that people (including Ned) seem to think Kendall catching 140 games is a good thing.

I sincerely doubt that Gabe Kapler or Tony Gwynn Jr will ever start a game for Braun this year, and I doubt Braun, if healthy is out of the lineup for more than 3 or 4 games at most.

 

I didn't mean they would get starts over him (I hope even Ned isn't that crazy), just that Ned would fall in love with using them as defensive replacements too early.

 

[MJLiverock]

Want to know why the Cubs were able to pull ahead of the Brwers last year? Check out who got manager decided PAs:

 

Jenkins 464 PAs 8.9 VORP

Gross 210 PAs 2.9 VORP

Mench 308 PAs 2.6 VORP

Gwynn 135 PAs 0.1 VORP

 

And Gwynn is set for 300 PAs this season.

I guess I am not following what you are trying to say here. It looks to me that the guy with the highest VORP (Jenkins) got far and away the most PA's. Mench and Gross who are basically the same guy just from opposite sides of the plate were second, and Gwynn barely played (Gwynn had 32 AB's after the all star break including only 10 in August/Sept so I don't think he contributed a whole lot to the blown lead).